On this day. May 31, 1977
Columbia University geologist Wallace S. Broecker May 31 said increased reliance on coal for energy might over the next 50 years raise the average temperature on the earth by four degrees fahrenheit. Broecker’s prediction rested on the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere: CO2 was transparent to incoming sunlight, “but somewhat opaque to outgoing earthlight” (sunlight reflected back out into space, where its heat would be dissipated). Carbon dioxide was produced by coal combustion; burning one ton of coal produced three tons of CO2.
“Coal impact on climate questioned” Facts on File World News Digest July 2, 1977
Four degrees Fahrenheit is just over two degrees Celsius. So, Broecker was wrong, but probably only by a couple of decades…
Broecker had been the first scientist to use the phrase “global warming” in the title of a scientific article. He raised the alarm, kept raising the alarm (see here for his 1980 letter to Democratic senator Paul Tsongas).
Why this matters.
Again, we knew, long before 1988. But it’s a far-off threat, of which we know little, so, you know, life goes on.
What happened next?
We kept on pretending there wasn’t really a problem – or rather, our lords and masters did. Some of us started panicking.