Categories
International Geophysical Year Interviews

Interview with Larry Edwards : “In 1967 a physics professor impressed us with how just a small 2oC increase in global average temperature would be devastating, and could happen”

Larry Edwards (bio at end of interview) kindly answered some questions…

1. A bit about where and when you were born – small town, big city.  What were your early encounters with “nature”

I was born (1948) and raised in San Francisco, in a district where in the 1930’s the city had sprawled out beyond its confining Twin Peaks to Ocean Beach. Nature was a nearby half-square-block park and the beach 2.5 km away. Further afield, we took a family vacation by car every other year, with nature outside the car window, if not at the destination. More often we took day trips by car down “the Peninsula” on a narrow two-lane highway through what is now Silicon Valley. and beyond. It was orchard after orchard, and, sometimes (in between) odd bits of wild-looking places, and a few big greenhouses. All gone now!—under subdivisions, corporate developments and a massive multilane freeway. It became not a wistful look at tranquil places and bits of nature, but relentlessly grim disappearances, year by year.

In my college years, I finally got out into nature often, in the county surrounding that much smaller city. And with my pals, at the end of summer I got into the High Sierras for multi-week mountaineering and rock climbing. (In the days before permits were needed to get into that wilderness!)

2. Specifically on the International Geophysical Year and how you encountered it as a primary school student.  What do you remember?  Were there films you saw, books you read.  Was it down to a science teacher, a geography teacher?

The International Geophysical Year (IGY) was a big deal. It kicked off in July 1957, after much anticipation by the public. There were lots of newspaper stories, and a big poster in the Post Office (next to the FBI’s Wanted posters – haven’t seen those for years!). That September I started 5th grade, and Miss Phillips (who had us for all subjects) was sciency. What I remember of that year is: our ant farm; and learning more about IGY, the solar system and (in a very general way) the carbon cycle and the greenhouse effect. The latter two weren’t about “climate change” (which I didn’t become aware of until much later) but about what sustains the web of life and a comfortable climate.

Sputnik was launched that October. With the US behind in the “space race,” hot topics were that as well as science and technology in general, both in our class and society wide. 

3. Do you remember what you thought at the time?

It was an exciting time for a young science-inclined kid, with new science coming out of the IGY and technology developing rapidly. 

There was also the trepidation of duck-and-cover exercises under our desks, in fear of a nuclear war. Our classroom still had pull-down blackout shades for the windows, left over from WWII, which had ended only a dozen years before I started the 5th grade. For context, Soviet Premiere Nikita Khrushchev’s epithet to the US, “We will bury you” was made in 1956. Tom Lehrer wrote his satirical song “We Will All Go Together When We Go” in 1959.

As added context for those times (but not known to me then), Keeling had started his work at Mauna Loa in 1958, and Plass’ 1955 paper and 1959 article (that you posted about recently, Marc), bracketed my 5th grade year. The 1955 paper was tentative, posing a lot of questions and needs for more data, and the 1959 article expressed an increase toward certainty about CO2 as a main cause of climate change. It seems the IGY may have helped. This context is interesting for me, looking back.

4. After the IGY, were you ‘sensitised’ to environmental issues, and books such as that of Rachel Carson?

I don’t recall particular books on environmental issues until my college years. While I was there, there was the first Earth Day (1970). From high school through college, my continual concerns were loss of nature, city sprawl, pollution, use of non-renewable resources, and the rapid spread of nuclear power projects. I was reading about all of that in newspapers, later in books like “Silent Spring” and Raymond Dasmann’s “The Destruction of California” (a big influence on me), and many others. The public internet came decades later, so it was newspapers, magazines, books, and journals (college library), plus public events.

Early in college (’67 or ‘68), a Physics professor impressed us with how just a small 2oC increase in global average temperature would be devastating, and could happen. It was a very brief side-mention during a lecture, quite apart from the course material, but his explanation was compelling to me.

One thing that really sensitized me was, during high school in the mid-1960s, Pacific Gas & Electric started building a nuclear power plant at Bodega Head, on the coast north of the Golden Gate. It was big, controversial news. Mentally, I cheered on a lawsuit against it. The suit succeeded when a “minor” fault was discovered in the rock pit being dug for the reactor vessel (though not dissuading PG&E).  Later, a few miles from my college in southern California, construction of the Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant was about to begin. Seismic controversy brought the Atomic Energy Commission to town for a week-long technical hearing, held in one of the temporary WWII buildings at an abandoned Army base a few miles down the highway. I cut classes to attend the whole thing. A physics professor was fired, later, for being outspoken against the plant. Six decades on, now, the devil is still operating at Diablo Canyon, a continuing controversy for California.

The year I got my aeronautical engineering degree (1971), a huge national controversy arose over the Supersonic Transport (SST) Project. For years, Boeing and Lockheed had independently worked on their differing designs. To build a prototype had become a matter of national pride, but neither company could afford to do so. A funding bill for the prototype was progressing through Congress, in which either Boeing or Lockheed would be picked to proceed. This was unending, high-profile news. The Anglo-French Concorde had first flown two years before, with construction having started when I was still in high school. 

The corporate and political promoters’ grand plan was for a fleet of 500 American SSTs, flying at over 50,000 feet. Besides the project’s cost, a big controversy was the likely climate impact. Scientists feared high-impact global chilling would result. (Perhaps they got the sign of the impact wrong, but as we know now, they were correct about how sensitive the climate is to human-caused upset.)  So, throughout my senior year I wrote letters to senators (no email in those days), begging for the project to be cancelled – not that I could have any influence, but I felt I had to do my bit. Three months before I graduated, Congress killed the bill — once and for all ending this SST project. Immediately, the two companies fired 30,000 engineers and managers, depressing the aerospace industry and sending an economic shock. So, my career took a turn to other engineering and eventually to environmental and climate advocacy.

Regrets for my letter writing?  No – for an informed engineer it was an ethical necessity.  

5. When and how did environmental issues ‘grab your attention’?

See above.

6. Why does it matter that people were being warned as early as 1957 about carbon dioxide build-up? What does that tell us about how seriously we take long term threats?

In my recollection of the International Geophysical Year (18 months in 1957 and 1958), I have no memories of carbon dioxide build-up being an issue publicly, certainly not in terms of impacts – though I may have forgotten or missed it. Possibly, since trouble would have seemed to be in the remote future, I suppose US news coverage at the time would have been observational rather than action indicating. 

Certainly, the IGY inspired wonder, not fear, at least in me. But as I learned in 5th-grade, the carbon cycle and the greenhouse effect were well enough known for an aware public to be prepared to accept the tremendous impacts of fossil fuel use and other human activities (e.g., SST aircraft) that were exposed in American newspapers and magazines (no internet yet) one to two decades later. From that later time onward, all one had to do was read, even a little, to be aware.

7. What do you see for us, as a species, as a civilisation, in the near future?

I despair, much — but I optimistically keep pressing for urgent, effective action in any way that I can. (My only hope is to influence those who have influence, having none to speak of myself.)  The climate situation is now far beyond dire. We are amidst an absolute, fast-worsening disaster. Governance, nationally and globally, has abjectly failed in what the Kyoto Protocol (1997) set out to do — prevent dangerous climate change; and that failure includes the Band-Aid – the Paris Agreement.

I believe that none of the actions presently on the table is workable for ostensibly getting humanity (and the natural world) out of this disaster. There is too much reliance on quickly building renewable energy, improving energy efficiency and on voluntary reduction of energy (and other) consumption. There is, in my estimation, no substitute for strong governance in this situation, akin to WW2-like emergency measures that can “renormalize” society to achieve a rapid phaseout of fossil fuels and deep cuts in other GHGs.

The problem is that initiating such renormalization takes: “leadership” that is lacking; trust in government that is at low ebb; and time – which we keep frittering away. There is always time, but now really no time left in terms of what it takes to turn government around, and to gain public trust for that process to happen. Even in the best imagined case – of no political friction – it takes time to pass legislation and implement it.

So, where to start on this? From polling going back years, a high proportion of the people (in northern, industrial countries) recognize the climate change problem, our cause of it, and a need for action. It seems that peoples’ latent energy for action is stymied by the momentum of society’s existing norms, by individual’s fear of missing out (“fomo”) while those norms are in place, and by the inability of individuals to have any real influence on changing on changing those norms. So, in life nearly all of us go with the flow, daily and annually (e.g. with long-distance vacations). 

So the big question is: “What can change the course of this mighty river of human activities, executed by individuals each following their path of least resistance?” It is obvious by now that voluntary action is insufficient. How do we come to recognize that orchestrated collective action is needed, somehow with each of us making those sacrifices that are appropriate to our impacts and our ability to sacrifice?

I believe what has been lacking all along, in each of the US, Europe and elsewhere, is “a leader” who is trustworthy and instills the “necessity” of government stepping in to instill a change in society’s climate-related norms. In other words, for quickly phasing out the production and import of fossil fuels (like in 10-15 years) and greatly reducing methane emissions. This requires a bottom-up understanding of the “necessity,” and also an “acceptance” of the program based on: a “trust” that it will “apply to everyone” and will be “fairly applied”; that “no one will be left behind” (e.g. as in a Green New Deal); and – crucially – that the program is justifiable because it “will be effective.”  

All those elements are crucial, in order to make possible (socially and politically) a capable climate change control program. As Irish scientist Barry McMullin has said, “the challenge is to make unpalatable policy palatable.” I believe we have no other option, except oblivion.

The challenge is a high one, because the above needed fast pace of phasing out fossil fuels and deeply cutting methane emissions can be expected to exceed how fast (or how much) renewable energy projects can be built and efficiency can be improved, for example. Rationing of energy and some goods, at least at some times and perhaps for a long time, must be anticipated, through a trustworthy program for administering it fairly that the public can accept as being necessary and fair and that will be well enforced (to prevent or minimize cheating, even by the wealthy).

It is only the dim prospect of such a program that gives me hope. Without that I see decade, after decade, after decade going by – as before – with, at best, marginal reductions of global emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, and with unbearable pain and suffering continuing over the time horizon for us and the natural world, in every way imaginable.

We have got to get our greenhouse in order, starting without delay and at the fastest pace governments and society can possibly manage, sacrifices included.

8. Anything else you’d like to say.

It seems the above is already much more than you asked for. I am on Bluesky as @radreduction.bsky.social (radical emission reduction, eh?). Here are some climate-related publications I co-authored:

There are these on my ResearchGate page (which also has non-climate-related works):

Edwards, Larry; Cox, Stan (2020). Cap and Adapt: Failsafe Policy for the Climate Emergency. Solutions Journal, Vol. 11:3, Sept 2020

Heuwiesner, M; et al (2020). Degrowth of Aviation: Reducing air travel in a just way. A report by the Stay Grounded global network, Jan 2020.

And these can be found elsewhere:

Cox, Stan; Edwards, Larry (2022). Four scientists, a few small nations, and making unthinkable climate action possible. Resilience, 11 Feb 2022.

Stay Grounded (2021).  Frequent Flyer Programmes Incentivise Climate Destruction. A well-researched blog article written by a Stay Grounded committee. 11 Aug 2021. 

Larry Edwards has degrees in aeronautical and mechanical engineering.
Early in his career he settled in a small Alaskan town. From there for
nearly 50 years he has worked on pollution, forest and climate
concerns, both independently and professionally and on local, national
and global fronts.

Categories
International Geophysical Year

 April 5, 1950 – IGY born at a dinner

Seventy six years ago,

The idea for the IGY is said to have taken off at a dinner hosted by the American geophysicist James Van Allen and his wife, Abigail Halsey Van Allen, on 5 April 1950.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 310ppm. As of 2026 it is 428ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The broader context was that World War Two had set off an astonishing amount of accelerated progress around the ability to travel the world, to measure the world, etc, etc, radar, sonar, jet engines, the promise of satellites, etc. 

The specific context was that the Cold War was on, all these concerns around whether modification etc were live, and a dinner at which the IGY was brainstormed makes a neat starting point and is worthy of further study. If I recall correctly, Fred Singer was present, which is kind of ironic.

What I think we can learn from this is that the longest journey starts with a single step. An avalanche begins with a single rock falling. 

What happened next:   the IGY did take place from July 1, 1957 to December 31 1958 and amidst that awareness of concerns about carbon dioxide build up started to hit the public. For example, the 1958 documentary by Frank Capra, the Unchained Goddess, needs to be seen in that context.

Also on this day: 

April 5, 2005 – Coal21 holds first conference

April 5, 1971- a UK scientist explains “pollution in context”

April 5, 2008 – Charlton Heston dies, star of first movie to mention the greenhouse effect

Categories
International Geophysical Year United Kingdom

December 16, 1957 – Met Office discusses Atmospheric Chemistry at RSA – CO2 build up “might be disastrous” (in a few centuries).

Sixty eight years ago, on this day, December 16th, 1957, there was a Meteorological Office discussion of Atmospheric Chemistry at the Royal Society of Arts.

And

“If carbon dioxide continued to be generated by human activities at the present rate, and if it all remained in the air, there would be a change in the world’s climate which within a few centuries might be disastrous.”

(see 1958 Meteorological Magazine)

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 315ppm. As of 2025, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.

The broader context was that the Met Office has been around for yonks! The Royal Society of the Arts is somewhat older.

The specific context was that the International Geophysical Year was underway, with a lot of data analysis to come…

Even before the data was collected, however, there was knowledge that there might be trouble ahead.

NB John Sawyer was present (more on this later).

What I think we can learn from this – The IGY generated a lot of things to talk about!

What happened next

The Met Office didn’t start getting seriously interested in carbon dioxide until 1976…

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

December 16, 1991 – European Energy Charter becomes a Thing

December 16, 2002 – another knee-capping for renewable energy in Australia…

December 16, 2004 – “2 degrees of warming to be a catastrophe”

 December 16, 2008 – “The Australian” attacks on climate change

Categories
International Geophysical Year United States of America

March 2, 1956 – IGY oceanography meeting on “clearer understanding”

Sixty nine years ago, on this day, March 2nd, 1956,

A modest plan crystallized in meetings of experts arranged by the U.S. National Committee for the IGY in early 1956. Here two senior scientists, Roger Revelle and Hans Suess, argued the value of measuring CO2 in the ocean and air simultaneously at various points around the globe. The ultimate goal was “a clearer understanding of the probable climatic effects of the predicted great industrial production of carbon-dioxide over the next 50 years.” But the immediate aim was to observe how seawater took up the gas, as just one of the many puzzles of geochemistry. Revelle had become interested in the question through his own research, which had been amply supported by the U.S. Navy’s Office of Naval Research and other federal agencies, whose interest in the oceans was whetted by the competition with the Soviet Union.

The committee granted Revelle some small funds for measuring CO2. The key actor in this, and much else in getting greenhouse gas studies underway, was Harry Wexler, a meteorologist turned administrator who served as Chief of the Scientific Services division of the U.S. Weather Bureau. Wexler was an outstanding example of the thoughtful officials who worked behind the scenes to identify and promote promising research, while the scientists they supported got all the credit”

Clearer understanding:” Minutes of IGY Working Group on Oceanography, Regional Meeting, 2 March 1956, Washington, DC, copy in provisional box 96, folder 243, “IGY-CSAGI Working Group on Oceanography,” Maurice Ewing Collection, Center for American History, University of Texas at Austin. 

This from Spencer Weart’s wonderful website

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 313ppm. As of 2025 it is 427ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that the International Geophysical Year was going to start in 15  months, and it was going to be an 18 month collaboration of measurement and experiments around, well geophysics. 

What I think we can learn from this is that scientists had a wish list of things that they wanted to investigate so they could better understand what was going on. Just in general, carbon dioxide build up was certainly known of, but it was by no means a central focus of the Geophysical Year.

What happened next

Roger Revelle was able to use a bit of spare money so that Charles Dave Keeling could start measuring CO2 at insanely precise levels

NB As per Rebecca John’s archival work – Keeling had already been measuring for the industry funded “Air Pollution Council”.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

March 2, 1954 – UK newspaper readers get Greenhouse lesson from Ritchie-Calder 

March 2nd, 1997- RIP Judi Bari

March 2, 2009 –  Washington DC coal plant gets blockaded

Categories
International Geophysical Year United States of America

February 8, 1956 – Roger Revelle sexes up the dossier to House Committee on Appropriations

Sixty nine years ago, on this day, February 8th, 1956, US scientist Roger Revelle was giving TESTIMONY BEFORE THE HOUSE COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS, FEBRUARY 8, 1956

You can read it here.


Fossil fuels and Carbon dioxide
Dr. REVELLE. . . . There is still one more aspect of the oceanographic program which I thought you gentlemen would be interested in. This is a combination of meteorology and oceanography.
Right now and during the past 50 years, we are burning, as you know, quite a bit of coal and oil and natural gas. The rate at which we are burning this is increasing very rapidly.
This burning of these fuels which were accumulated in the earth over hundreds of millions of years, and which we are burning up in a few generations, is producing tremendous quantities of carbon dioxide in the air. Based on figures given out by the United Nations, I would estimate that by the year 2010, we will have added something like 70 percent of the present atmospheric carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. This is an enormous quantity. It is like 1,700 billion tons. Now, nobody knows what this will do. Lots of people have supposed that it might actually cause a warming up of the atmospheric temperature and it may, in fact, cause a remarkable change in climate. . . .


Warming of the earth
We may actually, for example, find that the Arctic Ocean will become navigable and the coasts become a place where people can live, then the Russian Arctic coastline will be really quite free for shipping, as will our Alaskan coastline, if this possible increase in temperature really happens.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 314ppm. As of 2025 it is 426ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that big science cost big money, and Revelle was trying to assure Congressmen that this was money well spent. And so came up with various stories and scenarios. 

What I think we can learn from this is that scientists have to know how to keep the money flowing. This is a perennial problem in the area of big science, but using the word big  like that has a pejorative implication, doesn’t it? We’re no longer in the era of people tinkering in their sheds, much as we like to hark back to that with the folk Story of Google.

What happened next … the International Geophysical Year.

Categories
International Geophysical Year United States of America

May 19, 1957 – LA Times asks “Is your smoke helping to melt polar icecaps?”

Sixty seven years ago, on this day, May 19th, 1957 the Los Angeles Times asked the question (not for the first time.) This was all part of the pre-International Geophysical Year (IGY) build-up…

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 314ppm. As of 2024 it is 425ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that the Los Angeles Times had already run some articles about this. And here’s another one. In the context that senior politicians, scientists had been talking about this, not just Revelle, but also Kaplan, Wexler, etc. And it was speculative, but Gilbert Plass by this time had come out with his article in Tellus and was working on one for Scientific American. 

What we learn is that, again, if you were reading a newspaper the idea that over time the carbon dioxide could build up and cause mayhem was explained to you. Whether you chose to remember it, or believe it was up to you.

What happened next, the International Geophysical Year, Sputnik the Keeling Curve, the remorseless rise of emissions and then 30 years later, greenhouse effect would become undeniable. Except to those who chose to deny it, of course.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

May 19, 1937 – Guy Callendar’s carbon dioxide warning lands on someone’s desk

May 19, 1993 – President Clinton begins to lose the BTU battle…

May 19, 1997 – an oil company defects from the denialists. Sort of.

May 19, 1997 – BP boss says “If we are to take responsibility for the future of our planet, then it falls to us to begin to take precautionary action now.”

Categories
International Geophysical Year United States of America

January 9, 1957- Daily Worker ponders climate change

Sixty seven years ago, on this day, January 9th, 1957, The Daily Worker posed some questions, in the context of the International Geophysical Year, which was to begin six months hence.

“Can we predict earthquakes? Can dry spells be predicted in time to warn farmers? Is the earth warming up? Will the melting of ice caps and glaciers containing one per cent of the earth’s water, eventually submerge populated coastlines?”

Woods, P. 1957. Forty countries set to collaborate in a gigantic scientific experiment. Daily Worker, January 9, p.6. 

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 314ppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that two years previously, on January 2 1955, The Worker had posed similar questions.

Also, the International Geophysical Year was about to begin, it was well understood that the planet was warming. And that if it continued to do that, the ice caps would melt and that would have an impact on sea level rise. This was an empirical finding. People didn’t necessarily ascribe it to carbon dioxide build-up. But by the time the Daily Worker article appeared, there had been several articles in the mainstream press and some scientists speculating about the problem. 

What we can learn as with January 2, left-wing papers had a view on environmental destruction and environmental issues. That perhaps belies or at least complicates the easy caricature of them as “industrialise, industrialised industrialise and worry about green stuff later.” 

What happened next, the International Geophysical Year kicked off six months later. Accurate measurements of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere started to be taken in March of 1958. It quickly became apparent that the levels were indeed rising as had been suggested by Guy Callendar. That it was at that point that if the species had wanted to stick around for a few centuries, it would have started thinking about not burning fossil fuels. But there is no such thing as the species having a central organising committee, or even a body for discussing this. And so we blundered on thinking that the lunch we were eating was free. And those who tried to stop the blundering, were smeared, well, ignored, dismissed. And if they persisted, then they smeared and attacked, because that’s the way it works. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

January 9, 1974 – The UK sets up a “Department of Energy”

Jan 9 1995 – “Efficiency” promises vs hated and feared regulation/taxation #Predatory Delay #auspol

Categories
International Geophysical Year United States of America

June 21, 1958 – Washington Post reports ‘world turning into a ‘greenhouse’

Sixty five years ago, on this day, June 21, 1958, the Washington Post (not then the paper it is now) reported on carbon dioxide build-up.

21 June 1958 – IGY findings – Price, B. (1958) World Seen Turning Into a ‘Greenhouse’. Washington Post and Times Herald ; Jun 21, pg. A1 

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 317.2ppm. As of 2023 it is 423ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was 

That, even without Charles David Keeling measurements, it was clear that atmospheric CO2 was building up and would eventually cause the planet to overheat. This was thanks to the International Geophysical Year which was by this stage almost 12 months old. The previous December the Washington Post and run a front page story based on Edward Teller’s warning of a long-term climate apocalypse.

What I think we can learn from this

We can learn that there really wasn’t any secret about this in Washington or presumably London, it was just in the too hard and too far away basket

What happened next

The measurements started. The scientists continued to point out that there would be trouble ahead, especially people like Herman Flohn and David Keeling. But it would be 1988 before politicians were forced to take note.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Categories
International Geophysical Year United States of America

 April 4, 1957 – New Scientist runs story on carbon dioxide build-up

Sixty six years ago, on this day, April 4, 1957, the then-new popular science publication ran a story on the issue of carbon dioxide build-up, in the context of the imminent “International Geophysical Year”, which was to start in July…

New Scientist piece on c02 buildup

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 315ppm. As of 2023 it is 420ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was

Since Gilbert Plass’s statements in May 1953, the carbon dioxide theory of climate change (as propounded by Guy Callendar) was one of several competing theories. There were not, yet, however, super-accurate measures of atmospheric C02. Thanks to Roger Revelle and Charles David Keeling, that would soon change…

What I think we can learn from this

There has been popular knowledge of carbon dioxide build-up for a very long time.  It might therefore be the case that the “Information deficit” model of campaigning is at best misguided.

What happened next

The data from the International Geophysical Year, and Keeling’s meticulous measures at Mauna Loa, would show that yes, atmospheric carbon dioxide was definitely rising. Whether that was a distant small problem or a more immediate big problem, that would take some hashing out…

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong?  Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs..

Categories
International Geophysical Year Science Scientists

May 28, 1956 – Time Magazine reports on “One Big Greenhouse”

On this day, 28 May 1956, Time magazine ran an article with the following text:

“Since the start of the industrial revolution, mankind has been burning fossil fuel (coal, oil, etc.) and adding its carbon to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide. In 50 years or so this process, says Director Roger Revelle of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, may have a violent effect on the earth’s climate… “Dr. Revelle has not reached the stage of warning against this catastrophe, but he and other geophysicists intend to keep watching and recording. During the International Geophysical Year (1957-58), teams of scientists will take inventory of the earth’s CO2 and observe how it shifts between air and sea. They will try to find out whether the CO2 blanket has been growing thicker, and what the effect has been. When all their data have been studied, they may be able to predict whether man’s factory chimneys and auto exhausts will eventually cause salt water to flow in the streets of New York and London.” –

“One Big Greenhouse,” Time magazine, May 28, 1956.

Why this matters

It’s nice context for the “puzzle” Roger Revelle asked Charles Keeling to look at.

What happened next?

Revelle hired Keeling (check out Joshua Wienberg’s “The next 100 years” for more about this.

The Keeling Curve was born.

“We” ignored it.

The end.