Tag: 1958

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United States of America

January 26, 1958 – “Mystery of the Warming World” in Washington Star

Sixty six years ago, on this day, January 26th, 1958,

At the same time NAS was channelling Revelle, Edward Teller, father of the hydrogen bomb and an avid advocate for building hundreds of nuclear power plants, warned at the December 1957 meeting of the American Chemical Society that increasing CO2 might someday melt the polar icecaps and flood the world’s coastal regions.

Teller’s remarks and Revelle’s testimony to a congressional committee sparked a Washington Sunday Star article by Phil Yeager and John Stark in January 1958: “Mystery of the Warming World.” It was published on page 26 and included the prediction that CO2 warming of the climate might generate” a type of control regulation, law, interstate compact, and international agreement which could scarcely help clashing with some of our cherished notions of free enterprise. Industry, which might blossom in some directions … would be hamstrung in others. … Further, in view of the global nature of the problem, ordinary international agreements might prove inadequate for effective regulation.” International controls backed up by penalties, the prescient pair wrote, would be “sure to foster great heat and controversy.”

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2008/01/14/436446/-Blast-from-the-Past-8211-James-Hansen-1988

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 315ppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context is that people had been talking about the greenhouse issue. And including Edward Teller. And two journalists had used it as the opening topic in a series of science articles.

 What we learn – we knew. We really knew. 

What happened next The issue kind of went away in 1959-60, and only started to seriously come back in the late 1960s. And I think it’s just too big for people to understand. And it’s still too big for them to understand the idea that we could have a global impact. I mean, it’s just bizarre. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

January 26, 1970 – US science bureaucrat writes “what’s going on?” memo about #climate

January 26, 1978: “West Antarctic ice sheet and C02 greenhouse effect: a threat of disaster” article in Nature…

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United States of America

November 19, 1958 – doctor warns of long-term problem of carbon dioxide build-up

Sixty five years ago, on this day, November 19, 1958, at a meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science meeting Dr C Leake warns of carbon dioxide build up. This is reported the following day in the Times.

Anon. 1958. Air Pollution Menace to Health. The Times, November, 20, p.16

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 315.3ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that by the late 1950s scientists (especially American ones) were switching on to the threat of carbon dioxide build-up, and talking about it. 

What I think we can learn from this

Nobody pushed back, really. In a “liberal democracy” the active resistance only starts when you threaten established economic and political interests.

What happened next? It’s unclear if Leake continued warning. The carbon dioxide issue goes a bit quieter in the 60, for various reasons (no news hook, not enough confirmed science/data to justify etc).

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

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International Geophysical Year United States of America

June 21, 1958 – Washington Post reports ‘world turning into a ‘greenhouse’

Sixty five years ago, on this day, June 21, 1958, the Washington Post (not then the paper it is now) reported on carbon dioxide build-up.

21 June 1958 – IGY findings – Price, B. (1958) World Seen Turning Into a ‘Greenhouse’. Washington Post and Times Herald ; Jun 21, pg. A1 

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 317.2ppm. As of 2023 it is 423ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was 

That, even without Charles David Keeling measurements, it was clear that atmospheric CO2 was building up and would eventually cause the planet to overheat. This was thanks to the International Geophysical Year which was by this stage almost 12 months old. The previous December the Washington Post and run a front page story based on Edward Teller’s warning of a long-term climate apocalypse.

What I think we can learn from this

We can learn that there really wasn’t any secret about this in Washington or presumably London, it was just in the too hard and too far away basket

What happened next

The measurements started. The scientists continued to point out that there would be trouble ahead, especially people like Herman Flohn and David Keeling. But it would be 1988 before politicians were forced to take note.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

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United States of America Weather modification

March 18, 1958 – Military man spots carbon dioxide problem

Sixty five years ago, on this day, March 18, 1958, a US military man explains that carbon dioxide build-up is a possible, accidental, form of weather modification. 

In a paper presented to Congress in 1958, retired navy captain Howard T. Orville enumerated the ways in which humans might intentionally or unintentionally alter the weather or climate. Coincidentally, one of his first points involved the unintentional warming of the earth through C02.

(Howe, 2014:26)

Orville quoted; Weather Modification Research hearings of House Committee on Interstate and Foreign Commerce, 85th Congress, March 18-19 1958

https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=hppYLYOcv0oC&pg=PA3&lpg=PA3&dq=%22Weather+Modification+Research%22+hearings+of+%22House+Committee+on+Interstate+and+Foreign+Commerce%22,+85th+Congress&source=bl&ots=VqvXQyKqmX&sig=ACfU3U1XS6habXqG_Mb_IsjsekztVTyLpg&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiK6tfEsMHrAhUPWsAKHZLpBU8Q6AEwAHoECAMQAQ#v=onepage&q=%22Weather%20Modification%20Research%22%20hearings%20of%20%22House%20Committee%20on%20Interstate%20and%20Foreign%20Commerce%22%2C%2085th%20Congressorville&f=false

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 315.7ppm (this was the first month we have C02 measurements from Mauna Loa!). As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that at this point, the idea of intentional weather modification, think using hurricanes to smash your opponents, crops and fleets, was still a thing (This was the late 1950s when we were properly drunk on hubris). And so Captain Orville’s testimony came, it was not the first time he had spoken on this. And came three months after the New York Times had done a detailed report about this, that included concern about carbon dioxide buildup, and Orville himself talked about co2 buildup as inadvertent weather modification (link Jan 1 1958 article).

What I think we can learn from this

Sometimes or in fact, all the time, you don’t hit what you aim for, that the knowledge that is later useful comes almost by accident. And again, in the 1950s American politicians were indeed being warned about carbon dioxide, and had been for several years by then.

What happened next

The weather modification, beyond some very local effects in Vietnam (Operation Popeye), was a washout, despite what the chemtrailers would have you believe.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong?  Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs..

Categories
Science Scientists Sweden

November 15, 1958 – Academic Paper on “Changes in Carbon Dioxide Content of Atmosphere and Sea Due to Fossil Fuel Combustion” submitted

On this day, November 15, in 1958 one of the first papers about, well, our current problem, was submitted for publication.

1958 Bolin and Eriksson’s classic paper         “Changes in the Carbon Dioxide Content of the Atmosphere and Sea Due to Fossil Fuel Combustion” submitted.

[The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 315ppm. At time of writing it was 421ishppm- but for what it is now,well, see here for the latest.]

The context was this – 

Through the 1950s, American and Swedish scientists (and others) were looking at carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere and saying to themselves “now that’s interesting.”

Why this matters. 

We knew

What happened next?

Bolin? It became Bolin’s life work.  He shepherded the climate science agenda forward with skill and patience for decades. He was a key player all through the 1970s and 1980s. First chair of the IPCC.  Thank goodness for him he died when he did, before the farce of Copenhagen and so on.

Categories
International Geophysical Year Technophilia United States of America Weather modification

1958, Jan 1: Control the weather before the Commies do…

On this day, 64 years ago the New York Times had a front page story with the title “US is Urged to Seek Methods to Control the World’s Weather”. New York Times, 1 January, p1

Written by one John Finney it begins…

WASHINGTON, Dec. 31 — A special advisory committee recommended to President Eisenhower today an expanded and vigorous Government research program into how to control or modify the world’s weather

This was of course peak-Cold War. A few months previously the Russians, having captured better Nazi rocket scientists than the Americans had managed to paperclip, had aput a small metal ball into orbit, causing panic and despair.

It was also in the middle of the International Geophysical Year (IGY) ( at topic to which we will return).

Given the general paranoia and offense to the Uncle Sam’s amour propre, it’s surprising we didn’t end up with a “cloud gap” to match the illusory-but-useful bomber gap and missile gap…

Why this matters: we need to remember that the early history of understanding the climate is wrapped up in military needs (think about the British Navy and the Met Office) and computational models – see Edwards, 2010). It’s all part of the whole “give me absolute control over every living soul” thing that is steadily dooming us.

There is a strand of conspiratorial thinking, and fiction, which has ‘weather wars’ successfully being fought (I have a bunch of these novels, and should write about them. They’re fun, while bonkers).

What happened next? The IGY yielded a great findings (though the Pentagon briefly baulked at continuing to fund the C02 measures on Mauna Loa – that’s for another time). Weather modification experiments continued, but came up against the limits of human power.

References

Edwards, P. (2010). A Vast Machine: Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global Warming. MIT Press

Finney, J. (1958) “US is Urged to Seek Methods to Control the World’s Weather”. New York Times, 1 January, p1

Further reading

Fleming, J. (2012) Fixing the Sky: the Checkered History of Weather and Climate Control. Columbia University Press.

Hamblin, J. (2013) Arming Mother Nature: The Birth of Catastrophic Environmentalism. Oxford University Press

Harper, K. (2008). Climate control: United States weather modification in the cold war and beyond. Endeavour, Volume 32, Issue 1, pp. 20-26.