On this day, October 1 1957, a US Oil Company ponders carbon dioxide build-up in the atmosphere.
1 October 1957 Humble Oil study – Radiocarbon evidence on the dilution of atmospheric and oceanic carbon by carbon from fossil fuels. H. R. Brannon Jr. A. C. Daughtry D. Perry W. W. Whitaker M. Williams
[The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 315.6 or thereabout ppm. At time of writing it was 421ish ppm – but for what it is now,well, see here for the latest.]
The context was this – by the early 1950s, various folks were beginning to take note of carbon dioxide as a potential issue. (See for example, Gilbert Plass). Accurate atmospheric measures were not yet, however, being taken.
As Ben Franta noted in his 2018 article –
“In 1954, the geochemist Harrison Brown and his colleagues at the California Institute of Technology submitted a research proposal to the API entitled “The determination of the variations and causes of variations of the isotopic composition of carbon in nature.” The scientists proposed the use of new mass spectrometers to investigate the ratio of carbon-12 to carbon-13 in terrestrial, marine and mineral systems to understand geological and biological carbon cycling”
Even with International Geophysical Year barely being underway, we knew enough to plant a big fat warning flag in the ground and say “we really need to think about this one.”. The oil companies certainly did…
What happened next?
Awareness of the potential climate impacts of carbon dioxide build-up grew and grew through the 60s, into the 70s and 80s. There was a thirty year history of scientists saying “er, look” before 1988, when the issue broke through into the public sphere.
On this day, 30 September 2009, Tony Abbott had another of his Moments, which led him to become the opposition leader, and then three years later, the Prime Minister…
“Abbott’s ‘road to Damascus’ was in fact the road between Bendigo and Beaufort in country Victoria. He explains in his book Battlelines that it was during a car trip to a Liberal Party fundraiser on 30 September that former House of Representatives speaker David Hawker told him there would be a bush revolt against what was being seen as just another tax. Farmers were worried that an ETS would put them out of business.”
(Cassidy, 2010:23)
and then
“Abbott spoke for about 20 minutes, plugged his book Battlelines, outlined the difficulties confronting the party and then opened the floor to questions. After several questions on the ETS, including the impact on farmers and whether it was wise to commit to a policy before Copenhagen, Abbott called for a show of hands on whether the Coalition should support the ETS. Only a handful voted yes.
Abbott, until that point Turnbull’s main defender on the ETS, became increasingly blunt. According to many in the room, he left no doubt that he was a climate change sceptic. He ruminated there had been many changes of climate over the millennia not caused by man. Finally, he said the science behind climate change was “crap”, at which stage Wilson snapped awake.
“I think I was nodding off down at the back of the room when all of a sudden he came out with the comment that the science around climate change was `absolute crap’ and I kind of jumped back awake and wrote down his quote,” [Craig Wilson, editor of the Pyrenees Advocate] says.
Rintoul, S. (2009) The town that turned up the temperature. The Australian 12 December.
The context was that in October 2009 the “Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme” was coming up for its second attempt at becoming law. The problem for the opposition parties was whether to support or oppose. The National Party were implacably opposed, the Liberals split (they needed to win back seats they had lost in 2007, in the first climate change election). The problem for them was that they had gone into that election promising an emissions trading scheme not that dissimilar to what was about to be voted on.
The Liberal Party leader, Malcolm Turnbull, was already unpopular in his party, and about to become more so (see a blog post coming up in early October).
On this day the PPM was 384.95 ppm. Now it is 421ish – but see here for the latest.
Why this matters.
It doesn’t, really, unless you are a politics tragic and history buff…
What happened next?
Abbott toppled Turnbull. Then put the frighteners on Rudd. Then did his wrecking ball impression with Gillard. Then became Prime Minister, briefly. What a horror show.
On this day, 29 September 1969, British Prime Minister Harold Wilson first spoke of the “environment” in a speech to Labour party conference, in Brighton, 1969)
“First, our environment. There is a two-fold task: to remove the scars of 19th century capitalism – the derelict mills, the spoil heaps, the back-to-back houses that still disfigure so large a part of our land. At the same time we have to make sure that the second industrial revolution through which we are now passing does not bequeath a similar legacy to future generations. We must deal with the problems of pollution – of the air, of the sea, of our rivers and beaches. We must also deal with the uniquely 20th century problems of noise and congestion which will increasingly disturb, unless checked, our urban life. http://www.britishpoliticalspeech.org/speech-archive.htm?speech=167
The context is – well, the Torrey Canyon had already happened, people were beginning to get worried not just about cars and smog, but extinction. Wilson had an election to face soon (one he was expected to win, but didn’t).
On this day the PPM was 322.38. Now it is 421ish – but see here for the latest.
Why this matters.
Labour parties intermittently talk a good game, rarely deliver. Have to be wedded to industrial growth.
What happened next?
Oh, laws were passed. Ministries established. All the paraphernalia. None off the action. But what did you expect?
On this day, September 28, 1997, Australian denialist Ray Evans sprayed his usual nonsense.
1997 Climate Treaty fosters economic impoverishment and endangers US Sovereignty. Washington, D.C. Heritage Foundation, backgrounder No 1143.
The forthcoming Conference… on Climate Change.. in Kyoto… is the next occasion where the Environmentalists will seek to build their Berlin Wall. That Wall will take the form of an international institution… empowered to monitor, and regulate, the C02 emissions of the countries who sign the Kyoto Protocol, and, presumably, impose penalties upon those countries.
NR Evans, Executive Officer, WMC Resources Ltd Australia, speaking at the International Conservative Congress, Washington DC, Sept 28, 1997.
Context – Australian fossil interests had been pushing hard against a climate treaty since 1990. The Australian Government had been sorta divided on this, but always with the pro-coal interests having the upper-hand. Then John Howard became Prime Minister (March 1996) and went all-out in 1997 to try to get Australia the most generous terms imaginable. This effort by the vile Ray Evans should be seen against that backdrop.
On this day the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide was 360.44 ppm. At time of writing it’s 420ish.
Why this matters.
The denial campaigns worked. Bravo
What happened next?
We didn’t act at the speed and scale we needed to.
On this day, 27 September 1988, Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher surprised everyone by going full-Greta, and so really kicking off the 1988 to 1992 “window” around climate change.
For generations, we have assumed that the efforts of mankind would leave the fundamental equilibrium of the world’s systems and atmosphere stable. But it is possible that with all these enormous changes (population, agricultural, use of fossil fuels) concentrated into such a short period of time, we have unwittingly begun a massive experiment with the system of this planet itself.
Recently three changes in atmospheric chemistry have become familiar subjects of concern. The first is the increase in the greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide, methane, and chlorofluorocarbons—which has led some [end p4] to fear that we are creating a global heat trap which could lead to climatic instability. We are told that a warming effect of 1°C per decade would greatly exceed the capacity of our natural habitat to cope. Such warming could cause accelerated melting of glacial ice and a consequent increase in the sea level of several feet over the next century. This was brought home to me at the Commonwealth Conference in Vancouver last year when the President of the Maldive Islands reminded us that the highest part of the Maldives is only six feet above sea level. The population is 177,000. It is noteworthy that the five warmest years in a century of records have all been in the 1980s—though we may not have seen much evidence in Britain!
On the same day,
“Eduard Schevardnadze, then Soviet Foreign Minister, made a stronger speech to the [United Nations General Assembly] on 27 September 1988, where he proposed that UNEP should be transformed into ‘an environmental council capable of taking effective decisions to ensure ecological security’.”
On this day September 27 1962 the hugely influential book “Silent Spring” was published.
It had already been serialised in the New Yorker from June.
Carson’s book is regarded as the starting gun for public awareness of the dangers of technology-driven economic growth (what is now known as “The Great Acceleration” in some circles).
Industry’s response was predictable, involving heavy-handed satire and attempted smears (Carson was a lesbian, Carson was only a woman and therefore emotional and unreliable etc etc).
(Btw, see Hoffman and Ocasio (2001) Not All Events Are Attended Equally: Toward a Middle-Range Theory of Industry Attention to External Events)
On this day the PPM was 316.25 ppm. Now it is 421ish – but see here for the latest.
Why this matters.
If you stick your head above the parapet and say that what seems normal is actually deeply problematic, expect trouble. (That is not to say you deserve it, or should accept it, but you’d be wise to expect it).
What happened next?
Well, in the short-term, the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 almost solved all of humanity’s long-term problems very abruptly.
On this day September 26, 1989, the Australian Trade Union movement tried to go green. The ACTU – the Australian Confederation of Trade Unions – released a report…
“The ACTU has signalled it is changing its colours and turning green by making its first major policy statement on environmental issues.
The statement – to be debated at the ACTU Congress this morning – represents a concerted attempt by the organisation to overcome public opinion that the union movement is full of pro-logging rednecks.
“The ACTU hopes that by tapping into the groundswell of concern over environmental matters it will prove its relevance to the community and boost its membership numbers.
1989 Moffet, L. 1989. ACTU turns a decided shade of green. The Australian Financial Review, 26 September.
The context is that everyone in Australia was running around proclaiming their green-ness at the time. In May 1989 there had been a public spat between the Australian Labor Party government’s Environment Minister, Graham Richardson, and a senior union official (see June 9 1989 post)
The need for red-green coalitions – and the difficulty of creating/maintaining these – have a very very long history.
What happened next?
Climate and energy policy got subcontracted/given to the coal-miners union within the ACTU. And that did not go well. More on this another time perhaps.
On this day, 25th September 1991 a carbon tax in Europe was proposed
“The other factor concerned the difficulties the [European] Commission has had in putting into practice the fourth arm of the strategy, the carbon/energy tax. The details of this tax were announced on 25 September 1991. It would be levied on the basis of 50 per cent on the carbon content of energy, and 50 per cent simply on the energy ,and would be set at US $3 per barrel of oil equivalent, rising to US $10 per barrel by 2000. However, by the time the details were announced, it had already become hampered, not least by highly intensive lobbying by European industry (according to the Economist, [19 May 1992: 91] the heaviest lobbying of the EC it has ever engaged in.”
The basic things that needed to happen (or some of them) have been known for a very long time. We couldn’t even get the basics right (thanks in large part to fierce and successful resistance by fossil-ised interests)
What happened next?
The tax got squashed by the diligent and determined efforts of vested interests
On September 24, 2006 the direct action group “Planes Stupid” held its first taxiway occupation at East Midlands Airport. They’d formed at the “Camp for Climate Action” a month previously.
Baptist Minister leads airport shutdown protest against climate change
Environmental protestors (1) have this morning breached security at Nottingham East Midlands Airport and established a second camp for climate action – this time on an airport taxiway. Their aim is to stop carbon emissions from what they are describing as a “climate change factory.”
(2) A Baptist Minister whose former parish is in Nottingham is leading a remembrance service on the taxiway, in memory of the victims of climate change, reminding his congregation of the Bishop of London’s comments that “Flying is a symptom of sin.” (3) The Rev. Malcolm Carroll is conducting the service (from a pulpit he’s constructed) with twenty five smartly dressed activists wearing suits who have chained themselves across the taxiway to prevent planes from leaving.
Two tents, emblazoned with, “Climate Camp” have been pitched. The climate camp (4) campaigners from action group Plane Stupid (5) have pledged that this is part of a new wave of climate activism born at Drax Power Station in Yorkshire last month.
Making safety paramount, the protestors have taken steps to nullify the risk to the public by remaining on the taxiway rather than the runway thereby allowing planes to land in case of emergency. Police were immediately notified that this was a peaceful protest by environmental campaigners.
Nottingham East Midlands airport was chosen for the demonstration since it specialises in short haul flights, which are both unnecessary and unsustainable. (6) A huge number of the flights at this airport take place at night making them more damaging to the climate (7) and causing more harassment than usual to local residents. (8)
Speaking for the activists, writer and campaigner George Monbiot, said, “The real security threat comes from climate change, which is killing over 160,000 people every year – that’s the same as a 9/11 every week.”
The Rev. Malcolm Carroll, a member of Plane Stupid, said, “As the Bishop of London rightly put it, the science of climate change now means that flying is a sin. Tony Blair has known for years that climate change presents the biggest danger to life on earth so why doesn’t he do the Christian thing and ban unnecessary and unsustainable short haul flights?”
He continued:
“The Climate Camp at Drax was just the start. The people killing our planet should be put on notice; this direct action movement is going to be bigger than anything this country has seen before.”
This protest comes during the Labour Party Conference but Plane Stupid is already planning a national day of action against short haul flights on November 6th during the UN International Climate talks in Nairobi.
For more information/interviews:
On the taxiway: Richard George on xxxxxxxxxxxx
Outside the airport: Joss Garman on xxxxxxxxxxxx
(for studio interviews): John Stewart on xxxxxxxxxxxx
By phone: xxxxxxxxxxxx
www.planestupid.com
Any email responses to: press@planestupid.com
Professional pix available
Notes to editors:
1) The protestors include persons from London, Wales, Essex, Sheffield, Cambridge, Manchester and the Midlands.
2) Aviation is the fastest growing cause of climate change. For more:
www.planestupid.com
3) Richard Chartres, Bishop of London who is third most senior figure in the CoE and who chairs the bishops’ panel on the environment, said: “There is now an overriding imperative to walk more lightly upon the earth and we need to make our lifestyle decisions in that light.Making selfish choices such as flying on holiday or buying a large car are a symptom of sin. Sin is not just a restricted list of moral mistakes. It is living a life turned in on itself where people ignore the consequences of their actions.”
4) The first climate camp was held at Drax from August 26th – September 4th, and this kick started the climate camp movement. www.climatecamp.org.uk
5) Plane Stupid is Britain’s first national direct action group against the unsustainable growth in aviation. It is NOT a Christian group.
www.planestupid.com
6) 45% of all flights in Europe are to destinations less than 500km away. (That’s the same as London – Scottish border!) These are places easily reachable by train or bus alternatives which are over ten times less polluting.
7) http://www.extra.rdg.ac.uk/news/details.asp?ID=671 (Report in Nature Journal)
8)http://www.foe.co.uk/resource/consultation_responses/east_midlands_airport .pdf#search=%22noisiest%20airport%20in%20Britain%20Nottingham%22 includes a comprehensive analysis of the environmental impacts of this particular airport
On this day in 24 September 1991, an Australian scientist called Brian O’Brien gave a seminar called “Greenhouse Myths and Messages” at a seminar of the Tasman Institute. The Tasman Institute had been set up pretty much to combat momentum towards environmental protection legislation. They published a series of “reports” and seminars/speaker tours (including international visitors).
is suitably silent on his disgraceful and damaging action on climate change (there’s a lot more than a mere seminar.”)
The context – Tasman – and others – were trying to kill off proposals for economic responses to carbon dioxide build-up, especially a carbon tax. This seminar will have been scheduled in the knowledge that the draft chapters of the “Ecologically Sustainable Development” process were to be released. A seminar like this would provide a nice hook for a press release/puff piece by a sympathetic journalist… That’s how this stuff works.
Old men with relevance deprivation syndrome throwing their weight and over-confidence around. Gaia help us all.
What happened next?
The Tasman Institute was a dead duck by the late 90s – with the arrival of a Liberal National Government there was no need for it, and its sponsors pulled the plug.
O’Brien may or may not have had second thoughts. I don’t know or care. When it mattered, he was wrong.
