On this day, October 1 1957, a US Oil Company ponders carbon dioxide build-up in the atmosphere.
1 October 1957 Humble Oil study – Radiocarbon evidence on the dilution of atmospheric and oceanic carbon by carbon from fossil fuels. H. R. Brannon Jr. A. C. Daughtry D. Perry W. W. Whitaker M. Williams
First published: October 1957 https://doi.org/10.1029/TR038i005p00643
[The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 315.6 or thereabout ppm. At time of writing it was 421ish ppm – but for what it is now,well, see here for the latest.]
The context was this – by the early 1950s, various folks were beginning to take note of carbon dioxide as a potential issue. (See for example, Gilbert Plass). Accurate atmospheric measures were not yet, however, being taken.
As Ben Franta noted in his 2018 article –
“In 1954, the geochemist Harrison Brown and his colleagues at the California Institute of Technology submitted a research proposal to the API entitled “The determination of the variations and causes of variations of the isotopic composition of carbon in nature.” The scientists proposed the use of new mass spectrometers to investigate the ratio of carbon-12 to carbon-13 in terrestrial, marine and mineral systems to understand geological and biological carbon cycling”
Source.- Franta 2018.
Why this matters.
Even with International Geophysical Year barely being underway, we knew enough to plant a big fat warning flag in the ground and say “we really need to think about this one.”. The oil companies certainly did…
What happened next?
Awareness of the potential climate impacts of carbon dioxide build-up grew and grew through the 60s, into the 70s and 80s. There was a thirty year history of scientists saying “er, look” before 1988, when the issue broke through into the public sphere.