Month: December 2023

Categories
Australia

 December 16, 2008 – “The Australian” attacks on climate change

Fifteen years ago, on this day, December 16, 2008, the “news” paper the Australian goes to town on Kevin Rudd’s (admittedly wretched) white paper about the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme…

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 386ppm. As of 2023 it is 420ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was Kevin Rudd had become Australian Prime Minister in November 2007. A large part of his “offer” was to do something about climate change. He had sidelined independent expert Ross Garnaut for being too independent, and set up a green paper and white paper process. There had been enormous lobbying and in the words of Garnaut “never had so much been given by so many to so few” 

The Australian had been largely sceptical, talking up both scientific doubts and economic consequences. And of course this is in the context of global financial crisis which had started in September 2008.

The white paper had been released to mostly disappointment (and a physical protest at the National Press Club) a week earlier and this Australian page 3 page spread is part of the response.

What I think we can learn from this is that some people thought Rudd was going far too far others thought that there was no ambition. The latter were correct.

What happened next

Rudd bottled it. In 2009 Rudd tried twice to get legislation through with virtually no skill. The contrast with Julia Gillard with the minority government in 2011 is remarkable.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs..

Categories
Australia

December 16, 2004 – “2 degrees of warming to be a catastrophe”

Nineteen years ago, on this day, December 16, 2004, we got another warning.

SCIENTISTS have warned of the catastrophic consequences of a 2C rise in global temperatures.

They say it could threaten Latin American water supplies, cut food yields in Asia and lead to a rise in extreme weather in the Caribbean.

The warnings were issued in a report led by a group of European scientists and presented at a UN conference on climate change. It was released as delegates from almost 200 nations refined details of the Kyoto Protocol, a global warming treaty, to be implemented in February.

Hobart Mercury (2004) Just 2C could ruin us Hobart Mercury 16th December

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 377ppm. As of 2023 it is 420ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that through the 2000s scientists became more certain and more desperate about the impacts of a rapidly warming world. And some newspapers would pick up on this periodically, although the Hobart Mercury is part of Murdoch’s stable, it for whatever reason had always had slightly more independence (being, I think, the only Murdoch paper that did not support the Iraq War).

What I think we can learn from this

We have known exactly what was coming for us, and we have not acted. Of course unpacking that “we” is crucial. It mostly means our lords and masters…

What happened next

We did not act on this warning and all the other warnings that have come since. There is also such a thing as “too late.”

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs..

Categories
Australia Denial

December 15, 2009 – Monbiot versus Plimer on Lateline

Fourteen years ago, on this day, December 15, 2009, UK commentator George Monbiot took on and demolished Australian geologist Ian Plimer.

2009 Monbiot versus Pilmer on Lateline http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2009/s2772906.htm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iEsygjXunTs

http://www.monbiot.com/2009/12/17/showdown-with-plimer/

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 387.6ppm. As of 2023 it is 420ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that everyone was talking climate because of the recently concluded Copenhagen conference and the general upsurge in concern over the previous three years. Plimer had written a book called “Heaven and Earth” which has become a major denialist tract. Monbiot was always up for a ruck. Monbiot had already put paid to David Bellamy’s appearances by pointing out that Bellamy had completely misunderstood an aspect of glacier retreat.

What I think we can learn from this

That is rare for a single intellectual crushing and humiliation to particularly matter, but cumulatively they can, I guess.

What happened next

Plimer kept plimering. Monbiot kept publishing. Kevin Rudd did not announce the double dissolution election in response to the blockage of his wretched legislation. The Australia climate wars just got worse. And the emissions kept climbing.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs..

Categories
Scientists United States of America

 December 15, 2005 – James Hansen versus Bush again…

Eighteen years ago, on this day, December 15, 2005, it was – Hansen versus Whitehouse again… 

“NOW BACK TO the Keeling talk and its repercussions. There was no press release or press conference about the talk, but the American Geophysical Union meeting attracts a substantial number of reporters. BBC radio did an impromptu interview with me as I left the speaker’s platform. Bill Blakemore used a quote from my talk in an ABC News story the next day. The New York Times and the Washington Post, in articles about international climate negotiations, made note of my comment that 2005 was likely to be at least as warm as 1998, the previous warmest year in the period of instrumental data. The International Herald Tribune extracted several paragraphs from my talk, verbatim, making a short article under my byline.

Unbeknownst to me, this modest level of publicity was causing growing concern in the Office of Public Affairs at NASA headquarters. And the next week, on December 15, this festering consternation of NASA officials exploded into what the agency’s public affairs employees described as a “shitstorm.” The immediate cause of the explosion was the statement on ABC’s Good Morning America program that “NASA is announcing that this year, 2005, is tied for the hottest year ever.” ABC did not mention my name, but indeed I had provided our analysis of global temperature for the meteorological year (December through November) to Bill Blakemore the previous day….

Also, J. T. Jezierski, Griffin’s deputy chief of staff and White House liaison, told Bowen that on December 15 he had received an angry call from the White House and added that “the ‘sustained media presence … of Dr. Hansen’ was the dominant issue all that day and the next for every top official in public affairs and communications at the agency—himself, chief of staff Paul Morrell, strategic communications director Joe Davis, and David Mould—and that these officials also held discussions with Michael Griffin during those two days.” – 

James Hansen, Storms of my Grandchildren

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 380ppm. As of 2023 it is 420ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was the Bush administration was trying to gag the troublesome priest James Hansen. Of course this was a rerun of what had happened in 1989 when Al Gore found out about the previous attempt, it had led to the Bush administration having to concede that yes it would enter into climate negotiations.

What I think we can learn from this is that rather than deal with physical reality, powerful actors will try to shoot the messenger or silence him.

What happened next is that Hansen retired and continued to be a troublesome priest.

Meanwhile the carbon dioxide kept accumulating.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs..

Categories
United Kingdom

December 14, 1992 – UK “releases “National programme on carbon dioxide emissions”

Thirty one years ago, on this day, December 14, 1992, UK Department for Environment releases “Climate Change: our national programme on C02 emissions.”

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 356.5ppm. As of 2023 it is 420.4ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that the US had succeeded in weakening the climate treaty which the UK was clearly going to ratify. Meanwhile the “Our Common Inheritance” White Paper, published in 1990, meant that there had to be a national programme.

What I think we can learn from this is that promises of action are followed by promises that implementation will happen. Implementation plans are drawn up but then often nothing gets done…

What happened next

Nothing got done. There was a cola white paper. There was talk of carbon taxes and carbon pricing but really would be the early 2000s before any substantive climate action happened in the UK because emissions went down thanks to the switch from coal to gas and ongoing deindustrialisation of the UK.

And so while the numbers are going down, there’s no pressure to actually try to do anything.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs..

Categories
United Kingdom

December 13, 1973 – Edward Heath announces Three Day Week

Fifty years ago, on this day, December 13, 1973, in the UK,

 Prime Minister Edward Heath announced a 3-day working week to ration electricity use. Parliament was recalled on January 9th 1974 to hear that a new Department of Energy was being set up to co-ordinate the government’s response. However, the crisis brought down the government the following month. The incoming Labour government, under Harold Wilson, settled the miners dispute, and the new Energy Secretary, Eric Varley, ended the 3-day week on March 7th 1974.

Mallaburn & Nick Eyre (2014)

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 329ppm. As of 2023 it is 423ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that those troublesome miners had the defenceless and innocent government by the throat. Meanwhile the Arab oil embargo meant that oil prices were going through the roof. In an absence of secure supply what do you do to reduce demand?

What I think we can learn from this 

is that the year 1973 was pretty eventful for energy. And energy efficiency is still not a thing. And we are radically unprepared for the future.

What happened next

Heath went to the electorate in February 1974 asking “who runs Britain?” And the answer came “not you chum, not you.”

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs..

Categories
Scientists

December 12, 2007 – RIP William Kellogg

Sixteen years ago, on this day, December 12, 2007, the important US climate scientist William Kellogg dies; as with Bert Bolin, very good timing both

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 384ppm. As of 2023 it is 421ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that William Kellogg had been thinking about the build up of C02 for a long time. His first major involvement was organising a 1971 “man’s impact on climate” symposium near Wick in Stockholm in 1971. He asked Stephen Schneider to be a kind of rapporteur. Kellogg also wrote one of the first good historical overview articles, Kellogg, William W. (1987). “Mankind’s Impact on Climate: The Evolution of an Awareness.” Climatic Change 10: 113–36.

He was smeared by Richard Lindzen, which gives you an idea that Kellogg is probably a decent guy.

What I think we can learn from this

The work of stitching together scientific coalitions and creating “epistemic communities” is hard work.

What happened next

Three weeks later Bert Bolin died – their timing was excellent, coming as it did at a time where – if you wanted to – you could believe that finally international progress would be made.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs..

Categories
Uncategorized

December 12, 2007 – Canada leaves Kyoto Protocol as Australia joins

Sixteen years ago, on this day, December 12, 2007, Canada leaves Kyoto Protocol as Australia formally joins

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 384ppm. As of 2023 it is 421ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that a COP was taking place in Bali Indonesia that was all about what would happen after the Kyoto Protocol period was over 2008 to 2012.

The Canadians under Stephen Harper were clearly not going to hit their targets and Harper, a conservative, was throwing red meat to his side in removing Canada.

The Australian story was the opposite: Kevin Rudd had used Kyoto and lack of ratification as a way of painting then Prime Minister John Howard as a dinosaur ahead of the November 2007 federal election. One of his first acts as Prime Minister was to announce that Australia would ratify the Kyoto Protocol.

What I think we can learn from this

Day-to-day-to-year politics mean that no agreement is particularly safe. 

There is also a lot of symbolism going on – see the “veil of Kyoto” article.

What happened next

Rudd, at Bali, refused to go along with European requests for Australia to have a higher emissions reduction target than its pitiful current level – a sign of problems to come.

The emissions kept climbing.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs..

Categories
Coal Fossil fuels United Kingdom

December 11, 1979 – conference on “Environmental Effects of utilising more coal” in London

Forty four years ago, on this day, December 11, 1979, there was a conference at the Royal Geographical Society on what might happen if we kept burning more coal. And gosh, climate change even got a mention. How farsighted of them

  • CONFERENCE ON ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF UTILIZING MORE COAL, HELD AT THE ROYAL GEOGRAPHICAL SOCIETY, LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM, ON 11-12 DECEMBER 1979

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 336ppm. As of 2023 it is 423ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that the First World Climate Conference had happened in February – the UK’s John Mason had helped reduce momentum for increased activity on carbon dioxide build-up. In October 1978 an interdepartmental committee on climate change had been set up (by now its report was done, but its release was not certain – languishing in limbo (it would see daylight on February 11 1980).

There had also been an IEA report…

What I think we can learn from this

We knew, but we went ahead anyway, because, you know, maybe 19th century physics isn’t real…

See also speech to uranium institute.

What happened next

Coal kept getting dug up.

Mason changed his tune in 1988.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs..

Categories
Australia

 December 10, 2006 – Shergold Group announced

Seventeen years ago, on this day, December 10, 2006 Australian Prime Minister John Howard, cornered on the subject of climate change, undertakes a U-turn that convinces absolutely no-one (but gives ‘conservative’ commentators something to write about while convincing themselves that all is well).

Shergold Group announced – J Howard (Prime Minister), Prime Ministerial Task Group On Emissions Trading, media release, 10 December 2006. Reports on 31 may 2007

On the same day, 10 December, as bushfires ravaged north-eastern Victoria and Sydney’s dam levels dropped ever lower, Howard appointed a high-level business and government taskforce to report on global emissions trading options by May 2007…. It has a whiff of big business panicking a little because having delayed action for so long, the main polluters will be fearful of Labor designing a future trading scheme rather than one designed by a Coalition government.

(Hogarth, 2007:32) 

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 382ppm. As of 2023 it is 421ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that Australians had – almost 20 years after the previous wave – become agitated (or at least agitatable) about climate change, in the context of the seemingly-endless Millennium Drought, and international factors (including Al Gore’s film An Inconvenient Truth). Meanwhile, Federal Labor politician Kevin Rudd had been banging on about it, and getting traction. By the time the Shergold thing was actually announced (it must have been on the drawing board for a while?) Rudd had become opposition leader, and it was clear climate was going to be a key tool in Rudd’s attempt to unseat Howard at the next Federal Election, which had to happen by December 2007. 

What I think we can learn from this

When they are cornered, politicians will resort to “task forces” which will produce reports. They hope this will remove the oxygen from the issue, and that they can say they are “listening”/consulting. It’s an old tactic, but it works (see also Macmillan Manoeuvre).

What happened next

The Shergold Report was released the following May, but did not achieve the closure/diversion that Howard clearly wanted it to. Events overtook it, the tide of opinion had decisively shifted. Howard was toast. Not that Rudd was actually any better on the issue. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs..

References

On the sudden coming of the climate issue in late 2006, see The Third Degree by Murray Hogarth.