Month: May 2024

Categories
Australia

May 16, 1973 Energy and how we live. UNESCO seminar at Flinders

Fifty-one years ago, on this day, May 16th, 1973, there was a UNESCO-sponsored conference on Energy and how we live at Flinders University of South Australia, 

16-18 May 1973 / Australian Unesco Seminar ; Australian-Unesco Committee for Man and the Biosphere. –

You can see a clip with John Bokris here https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-12/professor-john-bockris-on-his-warning-of-impending/13837976

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 329.6ppm. As of 2024 it is 425ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that UNESCO had been holding conferences about the environment and man’s impact pollution, blah, blah, blah for a while, the most notable of these was in Paris in ‘68. And that had been attended by some Australians. 

There was the Man in the Biosphere programme. Meanwhile, Adelaide had been alerted to climate issues, in newspapers and so forth. And watching the television, for example, the Monday programme and there had been the “Is Technology a blueprint for destruction?” seminar at Adelaide University in September of 1972. 

What we learn is that people who cared about that sort of stuff, were well aware of the dangers ahead, but basically were unable to convince everyone else that the danger was real and that something meaningful could and must be done. 

 What happened next. In November 1973 South Australian politician, Don Jessop gave a speech in Parliament about the buildup of CO2, possibly influenced by this event. And the emissions kept climbing 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

May 16, 2005 – Anthony Albanese says critical action on #climate being delayed by 20 years… #auspol

May 16, 2006 – UK Prime Minister Tony Blair goes nuclear…

May 16, 2005 – Anthony Albanese, eco-warrior…

May 16 – Interview with Rosie, about zero population growth, zero climate progress, etc…

Categories
Australia

May 15, 1972 – Clean Air Conference in Melbourne

Fifty-two years ago, on this day, May 15th, 1972, a Clean Air Conference in Melbourne is told about carbon dioxide build up by CSIRO scientists, including Graeme Pearman,

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 327ppm. As of 2024 it is 425ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that there had been clean air conferences in states and now national or even international in Australia.

There had been the Senate Select Committee on Air Pollution started in 1968 delivering its findings in ‘69. And what’s particularly significant about this conference is the first time there was an explicit specific session on carbon dioxide build up, with Graham Pearman.

What we learn – oh, the usual – we knew, we knew, we knew.

What happened next – more reports, more warnings, paths not taken. And now we are on a path that leads nowhere nice. It didn’t have to be like this, but it does have to be like it’s going to be – laws of physics are like that.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

May 15, 2006 – Australian Prime Minister John Howard spouting “nuclear to fix climate” nonsense

May 15, 2010 – another pointless overnight vigil.

Categories
United States of America

May 15, 1950 – Getting Warmer? Asks Time Magazine…

Seventy-four years ago, on this day, May 15th, 1950, Time Magazine ran an article about, well, the world getting warmer. It begins as follows

Is the U.S. climate getting warmer? U.S. meteorologists, observing and charting the weather with growing exactitude over the past 20 years, are no closer to agreement on the question than their predecessors of a century ago. Last week a Washington convention of the American Meteorological Society heard strong evidence to favor the warmup theory.

“Getting Warmer?” Time Magazine (15 May 1950). 

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 311ppm. As of 2024 it is 425ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context is that it’s the postwar world. There’s always atom bombs going off. People are thinking it might heat things up/upset natural balances/humans now acting as Gods etc. Importantly, though, carbon dioxide is not mentioned in the story because it’s really 1953 that Gilbert Plass gives it plausibility or credibility. However, it should be noted that in 1948, the attendees of a seminar at the American Association for the Advancement of Science conference heard from G. Evelyn Hutchinson that yes, there was more CO2 in the atmosphere. 

What we learned is that warming was acknowledged pretty early.

What happened next Three years later, Gilbert Plass named names (carbon dioxide).

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

May 15, 2006 – Australian Prime Minister John Howard spouting “nuclear to fix climate” nonsense

May 15, 2010 – another pointless overnight vigil.

Categories
United States of America

May 15, 1932 – great deluge forecast by science, reports New York Times…

Eighty-two years ago, on this day, May 14th, 1932, The New York Times ran an article about a giant flood, with the ice-caps melting and all the rest of it.

“… there will be another deluge. Salt water will sweep over the continents, leaving only the higher land dry. Holland will be inundated. Fish will swim in Buckingham Palace and Westminster Abbey, for most of England will lie beneath the waves. The Desert of Sahara will be a great inland see. What is now New York will be marked by the upper stories and towers of the taller skysrapers as they jut out of the water.”

And when can we expect this? “[W]ithin 30,000 or 40,000 years”…

NEXT GREAT DELUGE FORECAST BY SCIENCE; Melting Polar Ice Caps to Raise the Level of Seas and Flood the Continents

https://www.nytimes.com/1932/05/15/archives/next-great-deluge-forecast-by-science-melting-polar-ice-caps-to.html

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 308ppm. As of 2024 it is 425ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was similar as a few days ago (May 10) with the Daily Oregonian, the world seemed to be warming. Guy Callendar was aware of this. Other people were aware of this. The Arctic seemed to be possibly melting. 

For journalists, it didn’t matter – even if it wasn’t really happening, it was a news story that filled some column inches, “all the adverts fit to print all the news printed to fit.” 

What we learn is that the idea of warming was not particularly controversial, and was picked up after the war in 1950.

What happened next? The New York Times kept reporting on this stuff. And in May of 1953 science correspondent Walter Kaempffert, wrote an article based on Gilbert Plass’s speech at the American Geophysical Union…

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

May 15, 2006 – Australian Prime Minister John Howard spouting “nuclear to fix climate” nonsense

May 15, 2010 – another pointless overnight vigil.

Categories
United States of America

May 14, 1979 – The greenhouse effect is … “almost common knowledge”

Forty-five years ago today, May 14, 1979, American diplomat Harlan Cleveland made the point that the build-up of carbon dioxide had gone, over the last ten years, from obscure to “almost common knowledge.”

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 336ppm. As of 2024 it is 425ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that Aspen had been hosting academics and policy wonks on the climate issue for most of the 1970s (see the book “The Great Adaptation” for more details

 What we learn is that by the late 1970s, and especially in the aftermath of the first World Climate Conference, educated/informed people knew that there was probably trouble ahead.

What happened next, the climate issue finally got traction in 1988. And the emissions are almost 70% higher than they were then.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

H/t to Cyrus Mody!

Also on this day: 

May 14, 2002 – well-connected denialists gather in Washington DC to spout #climate nonsense

May 14, 2010 – a day of action/mourning on climate

Categories
United States of America

May 14, 2007 – another C40 large cities summit

Seventeen years ago, on this day, May 14th, 2017, the second “C40 Large Cities” summit was held. Backs were slapped, business cards exchanged, palms probably greased, and all the other things that happen at these events happened. And we are not saved.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 384ppm. As of 2024 it is 425ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that the Climate Group had been set up in 2004. And this summit, well, I wasn’t there, but it was surely another interminable junket, people getting together to display their virtue and swap business cards and give each other copies of glossy reports full of carefully chosen smiling individuals with the solar panel on their roof. 

And it was 2007, being the year that the IPCC fourth assessment report came out, Al Gore, everyone looking towards Bali, for what would be the “roadmap to Copenhagen,” “gosh, we can fix this,” etc, etc. And in the meantime, get some nice contracts.

What we learn is there is an endless circuit of this stuff, this guff. And you can have a nice career feeling good about yourself, going from event to event, talking about how the cat should wear a bell. And some of it does actually happen. Because technology is improved, because social movements have success, because companies see a market. It’s not that nothing has happened. It’s that we smother ourselves in bullshit about how much will happen and how easy it will be to do in the face of obduracy and resistance.

Although the penny does seem to be dropping that we are screwed. So there’s that. 

What happened next C40 kept going. The caravan kept rolling. Occasionally the wheels would fall off and need to be glued back on, as after Copenhagen but it’s too valuable to too many people, too essential, in fact, to pretend that business as usual with some tweaks will get us out of the mess that business as usual has created. And to think or, even worse, say otherwise renders you unemployable and a weirdo who might infect others with their weirdo germs. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

May 14, 2002 – well-connected denialists gather in Washington DC to spout #climate nonsense

May 14, 2010 – a day of action/mourning on climate

Categories
United Kingdom

May 13, 1977 – UK energy experts gather at Sunningdale

Forty-seven years ago, on this day, May 13th, 1977, Tony Benn, then Energy Minister, met assorted experts at Sunningdale to grapple with nuclear versus solar etc.

NB Wasn’t it Sunningale where the Police ‘processed the Libyans after the Yvonne Fletcher shooting??

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 333ppm. As of 2024 it is 425ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that the British state was in a financial hole. Energy was a big part of the problem,  

What we learn is that, well, the civil servants in the nuclear lobby were very powerful and were capable of outwitting the politicians who were not necessarily the sharpest tools in the box. 

What happened next, the climate issue was bubbling along. And in 1978, an interdepartmental group was set up to study the issue, producing a pipsqueak report that almost got suppressed or not released, before coming out in February 1980.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

References

Sedgemore, B. 1980. Civilisation: keeping the options open . The Guardian, March 10, p.7

Also on this day: 

May 13, 1983 – idiots get their retaliation in first…

May 13, 1991 – UK Energy minister fanboys nuclear as climate solution. Obvs.

May 13, 1992 – Australian business predicts economic armageddon if any greenhouse gas cuts made

Categories
Scientists United Kingdom United States of America

May 13, 1957 – Guy Callendar to Gilbert Plass on how easy it is to criticise, how hard to build theories

Sixty seven years ago, on this day, May 13th, 1957, English steam engineer Guy Callendar, who had been pointing to carbon dioxide build-up as an explanation for increased global temperatures since the late 1930s, wrote to Gilbert Plass, who in 1953 had brought the problem to global attention (see my Conversation piece here).

How easy it is to criticise and how difficult to produce constructive theories of climate change! and ““A point of special interest is the large discrepancies between the apparent increase of atmospheric CO2 given by the air-CO2 observations . . . and the predicted increase derived from the size of the exchange reservoirs as now revealed by radio carbon measurements.”

Letter from Callendar to Plass 13 May 1957 (Fleming, 2007: chapter 5)
Guy Callendar

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 315ppm. As of 2024 it is 425ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that Guy Callendar had been banging on about climate change and carbon dioxide buildup since 1938. And Plass had been doing the same since 1953. The two were corresponding and Callendar made a very good point about how the more conventional/mainstream/whatever people were resentful of an outsider committing that terrible crime of being right and proving the experts to be wrong. 

What we learn is that sometimes the experts are wrong. Other times they’re right but sometimes they are wrong. Don’t expect them to applaud you. 

What happened next Callendar had another great piece in 1960 – see here. He died in 1964. Plass kept writing about climate for a few more years but eventually moved on to other things. And the emissions kept climbing. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

References

Fleming, J. 2009 The Callendar Effect – The Life and Times of Guy Stewart Callendar (1898–1964), The Scientist Who Established the Carbon Dioxide Theory of: The Life … of Climate Change

Also on this day: 

May 13, 1983 – idiots get their retaliation in first…

May 13, 1991 – UK Energy minister fanboys nuclear as climate solution. Obvs.

May 13, 1992 – Australian business predicts economic armageddon if any greenhouse gas cuts made

Categories
Sweden

May 12, 1971 – Swedish protest against the culling of Stockholm trees (the “Elm Conflict”)

Fifty-three years ago, on this day, May 12th, 1971, some trees in Stockholm became a focal point

 One Swedish political history was the Almstriden – “the Trees”, in 1971: street demonstrations against the Stockholm park, Kungsträdgarden. “Listen to the hu tree, you who make decisions at city hall and in the future you hear humming there”, the journalist’s words that echo Bob Dylan’s song “The Times They Are A-changing”

Veckojournalen 18 may 1971

There’s a wikipedia page here.

And see also this from “Stockholm Art Walk”.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 326ppm. As of 2024 it is 425ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that this was four years into the Swedish “environmental turn” (Heidenblad), with the big conference on the environment due to happen in another year.

 What we learn is that there are these local flashpoint protests, which in and of themselves, seem insignificant but may have various consequences around radicalising some people (while also perhaps dismaying others so much that they steer clear of action). And these flash points may also reveal the fine words of politicians, just that just fine words.

What we learn is that there are lots of these little “brown m&ms” events where you can – if you want to – see that those in charge of things are not paying attention and not competent. Now, if you’re a rock star, getting on a stage and you’re worried that a spotlight will fall on you or someone else, then you’re highly incentivized to push the red stop button or pull the big lever that says stop. If however, you personally are less likely to suffer consequences, then it’s easier and safer to just go along… (and this is what was good in the neoconservative Robert Kagan’s article in November 2023 about the so called resistance to Trump; that people will make a calculation to avoid trouble and that for bad things to stop, people have to put aside their personal short-term interest and make a bigger longer decision “taking one for the team.”). 

What happened next? I think the tree got cut down. I think it didn’t matter in the cosmic scheme of things except to the tree but it’s a real brown m&m moment,

 and is also the end of Peddler and Davis BrainWrack, which should be worth mentioning. 

sidebar if you can produce all of this for something like all like yesterdays simply by going out and talking with a piece of paper, why can’t you use that exact same habit to get first drafts down have other bigger better things? There’s no reason why. So just get on with it.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

May 12, 1989 – USA says it will, after all, support the idea of a #climate treaty

May 12, 1995 – Another bet between cornucopians and realists

Categories
United Kingdom

May 11, 1990 – the Financial Times on good intentions not cutting it

Thirty four years ago, on this day, May 11th, 1990, the pink’un pointed out that the problem would be difficult to solve.

If the world’s environmental problems could be solved by high-powered conferences, then the planet would have nothing to worry about. Officials from the world’s environment ministries, activists from green pressure groups and scientists specialising in environmental problems have spent the year jetting from one international gathering to another.

Thomas, D and Hunt, J. 1990. Wave on wave of good intentions: The issues facing the world’s environmental diplomats. Financial Times, 11 May.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 354.5ppm. As of 2024 it is 425ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that there were, as the FT article says, endless meetings for diplomats and negotiators to attend, on either “sustainable development” or climate or both. The Earth Summit was due in June of 1992. 

And the FT had been running some good pieces, some good reportage and the usual bullshit denial because that’s what a portion of its audience wanted. 

What we learn is what the FT is, quite rightly pointing out is that good intentions will get you so far, fine words butter, no parsnips, etc. 

 What happened next, the FT kept running the occasional denial bullshit, but on the whole, reasonably good reportage and reasonably good opinion within its worldview, obviously. Pretty much everyone acts within their worldview all the time, especially if they’re a big organisation that needs its gatekeepers. 

See also Herman and Chomsky propaganda model 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

May 11, 1971 – U Thant gets The Message

May 11, 1988 – “Greenhouse Glasnost” USA and USSR to co-operate on climate