One year ago, on this day, November 17th, 2023, the globe was, according to one data set, two degrees warmer than pre-industrial levels for the first time in human history.
We now have results from a modern reanalysis product (ERA5) that shows November 17th was in fact the first day the world has experienced that was 2C above the preindustrial (1850-1900) average.
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 423ppm. As of 2024 it is 423ppm, but check here for daily measures.
A year ago today, we broke two degrees for the first time.
At time of writing (or narrating) this in December 2023 it looks like a pretty sure bet that those temperature records will fall again, because we have an El Nino year on the way, and our emissions are higher. And we are about to get seriously smacked between the eyes. As Matt Damon, as Jason Bourne, said to the journalist at Waterloo, “you have no idea what you’re into”.
And as of November 2024 – yeah,the El Nino ended but the tempatures did not come down as some expected. Have a look at this
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/opinion/climate-change-heat-planet.html
[I will update this post closer to the time that I will also leave this text in. It’s the safest predictions I’ve made. I will be astounded if we don’t break that record.]
What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.
Also on this day:
November 17, 1968 – UK national newspaper flags carbon dioxide danger…
November 17, 1980 – International meeting about carbon dioxide build up.