Thirty one years ago, on this day, September 22nd, 1994,
The Federal Government’s response to the greenhouse gas problem will inevitably cut billions of dollars from Australia’s economic growth but a carbon tax would devastate the economy, according to a major new report.
The study, by the Melbourne-based National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, says that current government ambitions for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are “unrealistic” and cannot be achieved without major economic costs.
It confirms there are no easy choices facing the Government in dealing with the greenhouse problem, particularly in the short term.
Commissioned by the Electricity Supply Association of Australia, the two-year, $400,000 research project, suggests that a longer-term greenhouse response would mitigate the impact on the national economy. The new analysis will be publicly released today. … coal industry closed down by 2000.
Gill, P. 1994. Carbon tax to ruin economy says new study. The Australian Financial Review, 22 September, p.6.
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 359ppm. As of 2025, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.
The broader context was that business had been running scare campaigns against any government action on any given issue for ages – that’s what they do. Starting in 1989 or so, they did the same for “the Greenhouse Effect.”
The specific context was that the Federal Environment Minister, John Faulkner, had spent the last few months trying to get people on board for a carbon tax. This was part of the pushback.
What I think we can learn from this is that they always do “sky will fall” economic reports. Why change a winning game?
What happened next: The carbon tax was defeated in early February 1995.
What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.
References
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Also on this day:
September 22, 1971 – Australian communist talks about climate change
September 22, 1991 – ESD RIP. Australia’s chance of a different future… squashed flat.