Fifteen years ago, on this day, December 22nd, 2010,
“What we see happening with new record temperatures, both warm and cold, is in good agreement with what we predicted in the 1980s when I testified to Congress about the expected effect of global warming. I used coloured dice then to emphasize that global warming would cause the climate dice to be ‘loaded’—for risk of more extreme weather.”
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 390ppm. As of 2025, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.
The broader context was that Hansen has been banging on about carbon dioxide build-up for 50 years. His first foray into the world beyond science on this was in 1981. McKibben wrote a series of essays for the New Yorker that was then published as a book “The End of Nature”
The specific context was – that the UNFCCC conference in Copenhagen had been a farce, and it was clear things were gonna get out of hand.
What I think we can learn from this – being smart and right isn’t enough.
What happened next – Hansen and McKibben have gone on being smart and right.
The emissions have kept climbing. Who knows, maybe solar will reduce our energy emissions markedly. Who knows…
What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.
Also on this day:
December 22, 1759 – “What have ye done?”
December 22, 1975 – “Scientist Warns of Great Floods if Earth’s Heat Rises” (surely “when”?)
December 22, 1988 – Chico Mendes murdered
December 22, 1999 – Australian population growth and carbon reductions – not so easy…