Fifty four years ago, on this day, January 11th, 1970, The Washington Post ran a story extrapolating from the previous decades and… well,
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 324ppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures.
The context was that nobody was quite sure what the implications of industrialization might be. Yes, carbon dioxide would build up. But also dust and sulphur. And they had been reducing temperatures globally, or at least in the northern hemisphere for good 20 years. What if that process were to continue? Would it be possible to tip the incredibly complex, but possibly fragile and labile atmospheric system into a new ice age? We can look back now with hollow/grim laughter, but in 1969 1970, it wasn’t quite so clear cut.
What we can learn from this is that people were having these debates and the Washington Post and others were covering them.
What happened next? Well, although the Ice Age schtick continued for a few years, by the late 70s, it was pretty clear to everyone with the possible exception of Robert Jastrow that we were heading for warmer times (see here, in 1978).
What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.
References
Peterson et al. 2008. The myth of the global cooling consensus. BAMS Vol 89, 9.
Also on this day:
Jan 11, 1964 -: The Merchants of Doubt have work to do
January 11, 2010 – Bad news study about trees and the warming Arctic…