Thirty six years ago, on this day, August 20th, 1988,
The most comprehensive greenhouse model to date was prepared by Hansen at the Goddard Institute and published in the August 20, 1988, issue of Journal of Geophysical Research. Hansen’s model predicts an increase of from two to five degrees Fahrenheit in the next thirty years, depending on which of three alternate futures the world’s nations choose: continued expansion of fossil fuel use at the current annual rate of 1.5 percent; a moderate cut-back; or a radical shift away from fossil fuels to alternate sources of energy, such as solar, nuclear, wind, or hydroelectric. https://www.spin.com/2019/09/greenhouse-effect-climate-crisis/
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 351ppm. As of 2024 it is 424ppm, but check here for daily measures.
The context was that everyone was banging on about climate. Now greenhouse, which was not the case when this model had been worked on two months earlier. US climate scientist James Hansen had given his bombshell testimony. This was the first published version of the climate models that he was talking about.
What we learn is that Hansen has been ahead of the game for a long time and probably should not be ignored.
What happened next, Hansen got attacked, the models got attacked. The Global Climate Coalition came along, the George C Marshall Institute pivoted from shilling Reagan’s Star Wars to this crap. And here we are.
What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.
Also on this day:
August 20, 1997 – Australian Mining Industry operative misrepresents the #climate science. Obvs.