Categories
Australia Carbon Pricing

January 12, 1995 – Australian carbon tax coming??

Twenty nine years ago, on this day, January 12th 1995 the game of chicken and dare around a carbon price in Australia was coming to a head. A front page story in the Canberra Times began as follows,

“A greenhouse gas levy remains firmly on the Government’s agenda, with the bureaucratic working group responsible for developing the levy meeting for the first time yesterday.”

 Henderson, I. 1995. Greenhouse gas levy remains to the fore. The Canberra Times, 12 January, p.1.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 360ppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that the Australian Conservation Foundation (a big green NGO) and others had been pushing for a carbon tax for years initially as part of the Ecologically Sustainable Development policymaking process. And although they had suffered defeats, they didn’t let it go. New Environment Minister John Faulkner had taken that on board and he had also taken on board Phlilip Toyne who had been a major force in the Australian green movement as head of the Australian Conservation Foundation. 

What we can learn is that there is a great deal of believing when you’re top of the web or “dissent ecosystem”, (not that you can be at the ‘top’ of such a thing) in that when you’re a big player it’s tempting to believe that you can join the system and change the system from within. Then there’s a logic to doing so, or wanting to do so: beyond easy claims and smears of careerism, and parlaying radicalism to take one of the jobs for the boys. Toyne tried. He failed to get the tax up – but that was because the opposition to it was clear and clever and the support for it did not have its shit together.

What happened next a month and two days after this was in the newspapers, Environment Minister John Faulkner pulled the plug on a carbon tax. Instead, there was a meaningless voluntary scheme, the Greenhouse Challenge, which was reheated a couple of times, but frankly, never amounted to a bucket of warm spit. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

References

Xxx

Also on this day: 

Jan 12, 1983 – RIP to the “master organizer in the world of science”, Carroll Wilson

January 12, 2008 – Australian mining lobby group ups its “sustainability” rhetoric #PerceptionManagement #Propaganda   

Categories
United States of America

January 11, 1970 – A new Ice Age on its way?

Fifty four years ago, on this day, January 11th, 1970, The Washington Post ran a story extrapolating from the previous decades and… well,

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 324ppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that nobody was quite sure what the implications of industrialization might be. Yes, carbon dioxide would build up. But also dust and sulphur. And they had been reducing temperatures globally, or at least in the northern hemisphere for good 20 years. What if that process were to continue? Would it be possible to tip the incredibly complex, but possibly fragile and labile atmospheric system into a new ice age? We can look back now with hollow/grim laughter, but in 1969 1970, it wasn’t quite so clear cut. 

What we can learn from this is that people were having these debates and the Washington Post and others were covering them. 

What happened next? Well, although the Ice Age schtick continued for a few years, by the late 70s, it was pretty clear to everyone with the possible exception of Robert Jastrow that we were heading for warmer times (see here, in 1978). 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

References

Peterson et al. 2008. The myth of the global cooling consensus. BAMS Vol 89, 9.

Also on this day: 

Jan 11, 1964 -: The Merchants of Doubt have work to do

January 11, 2010 – Bad news study about trees and the warming Arctic…

Categories
Guest post

Guest post: “The Child Who Knew Too Much”

Here is a great guest post from Jennie Kermode, on what we knew, and how long ago….

The child who knew too much

When I was a kid I really, really wanted a silvery blue Porsche Turbo. not the most eco-friendly choice, I know, but I was far too young to have driven it – I just wanted to look at it, stroke it, sit inside it and watch other kids turn green with envy. Of course I never got it (though the local owner of a Ferrari did very nicely out of my brother by offering to sell that to him, piece by piece, at inflated rates), but it sat at the top of my birthday and Christmas lists for years. Next to that list, however, was another list, and what really used to upset me was how often that one was ignored. It was the list of things that I definitely did not want people to buy me.

There was some stuff on there about gendered toys. No Barbies, please, and nothing frilly. But most of it was devoted to products which I knew were doing harm to the world. Body sprays – a precursor to deodorants – were unpleasant enough in themselves, but I knew that they were destroying the ozone layer. I didn’t want things with lots of plastic packaging because I knew it was polluting the seas. I was uncomfortable about mass consumption in general because I knew about climate change.

This was the late ‘seventies and early ‘eighties – an era when mass consumption was all the rage. Michael Douglas delivered a satirical line about greed being good and billions of people took it seriously. There was an actor in the White House and the promises of Thatcherism made themselves felt even where I was living, in Yorkshire, where all the lights went out at planned intervals because of the miners’ strike. My friends, and many of my relatives, thought that my concerns were hilarious. When related topics came up at school, teachers would join them in laughing at me. My chemistry teacher told me that plastic bag pollution was trivial because, basically, the world was big. I pointed out that there were a lot of us on it, but nobody took me seriously.

Why did I know what others did not? It wasn’t that I was some kind of savant – just that my father was a physicist. I was a curious child and kept asking questions. I talked to his colleagues. I talked to his brothers, a haematologist and an engineer, who had insights of their own. My mother, a teacher, taught me to read when I was two and I consumed every book I could get. With this background, I noticed what was happening in the wider world around me in a way that most other people did not. Consequently, few of the symptoms of climate change that we saw then or that we have seen since have surprised me. Sometimes I feel as if I have been screaming for half a century and a very small proportion of people have noticed or cared.

In the face of that, it can be hard to hold onto hope. I was thirteen or so when, in a biology lesson, one of my teachers talked about bacterial cultures and the common pattern of their growth in a contained space: lag phase, log phase, death phase. Immediately, I associated it with the human population and recognised where we were on that journey.

I also read a lot of history. I knew fine well that people in almost every age have believed that they were living in the last days. Could we be just as wrong? I hope so. Humanity keeps surprising me; keeps pushing past its limits in unexpected ways. But I know better than to rely on it. So I put my talents to use where I can: in media, seeking to broaden conversations and bring in different kinds of expertise, seeking to encourage my readers to use their brains, and deliver bitter pills of understanding wrapped up in entertainment which helps them to go down more easily. Always I am aware of the ticking of the clock.

I am aware, too, of the absences. I used to do a lot of tape recording as a child. I know that, even in similar environments, the birds don’t sing as loudly as they did. I used to go berry picking. Now the berries come earlier every year. I used to sit outside in my grandmother’s garden and listen to the bees buzzing around the flowerbeds. They, too, have grown much quieter. But there are winners. More jellyfish in the sea. Vineyards spreading across the South of England. Scottish home-grown tea. Earth abides. When parts of it become too hot for human habitation year-round, what strange new forms will grow up there, free from our interference? Perhaps that is too optimistic; perhaps we will assault them with robotic vehicles, as we have the deep sea.

One thing I am sure of: the next fifty years will look very different from the last. Kids will no doubt continue to dream of shiny, unaffordable machines, but more and more of them will prioritise simply getting enough to eat.

Jennie Kermode is an author, journalist and human rights campaigner, inclusivity coordinator at the Bylines Network and content director at Eye For Film.

Categories
United Kingdom

January 10, 2023 Labour launches a Climate and Environment Forum

One year ago, on this day, January 10, 2023,

The Labour Climate and Environment Forum (LCEF) launched on Tuesday [2023 01 10] in parliament and is now signing up MPs. The group argues “that tackling the climate and environment emergency is an issue of social justice and economic prosperity that should sit comfortably at the heart of the movement as a core Labour value.”

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 419.5ppm. As of 2024 it is 422 ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context? They say opposition is easy. All you have to do is denounce the complacency, incompetence and greed of the government (and governments are all always, especially after a couple of terms complacent, greedy, and incompetent). But actually, things like this Labour Climate and Environment Forum present a headache for Keir Starmer, who needs to stop voters bleeding away to the left, while also holding on to that mythical beast, middle England. And so this presents a series of presentational challenges.

He doesn’t have control over what bodies do and do not get set up. At least not yet. So the activists keep trying to raise Starmer’s ambition, but Starmer is trying to play a dead head sorry, dead bat to everything. How this all plays out during an election campaign in the immediate aftermath remains to be seen. 

Meanwhile Starmer is flying kites about watering down the 28 billion a year pledge (managing expectations?).

What happened next? Well watch the space. No new publications from the LCEF since October, despite COP28 and so forth. Are they all busy waiting for the May 2024 election? Or have the thumbscrews been applied?

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

Jan 10, 1974 – Clean Air call for #Manchester

January 10, 1991 – “Separate studies rank 1990 as world’s warmest year” #ShiftingBaseline

Categories
Scientists United Kingdom United States of America

January 9, 2004 – UK Chief Scientific Advisor lays into President over climate inaction

Twenty years ago, on this day, January 9th 2004, the UK Chief Scientific Advisor, David King lays into Bush Administration on climate inaction

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3381425.stm

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 377ppm. As of 2024 it is 422 ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that Bush had been doing sweet FA. And he had had the British scientist Robert Watson removed as chair of the IPCC – it’s hard to play Athens to their Sparta when they won’t even give you a bow….

UK Prime Minister Tony Blair had been making the right noises about climate change but doing sweet FA, it was obvious that there was failure baked into the Kyoto process, which many at this point time were thinking was just dead. And that UNFCCC might be dead. And therefore emissions reductions were dead. China was galloping forward with its emissions, the US was not cutting it. And therefore, of course, you’re gonna speak out of school and hope for technofixes. 

What we learn is that chief scientific advisors can, on occasion, be troublesome priests. They tend to denounce someone over the water or across the border, rather than their own bosses. And when they are fed up with their own bosses, well, it’s more likely that they’ll quit and keep tight lips. For example, the Australian CSA Penny Sackett in February 2011. 

What happened next, King kept being Chief Scientific Adviser until 2007. Most notably, in 2023. Sir David King signed the letter in the aftermath of the acquittal of the Barclays nine, and is also being cited by Just Stop Oil in their standard powerpoint deck.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

January 9, 1974 – The UK sets up a “Department of Energy”

Jan 9 1995 – “Efficiency” promises vs hated and feared regulation/taxation #Predatory Delay #auspol

Categories
International Geophysical Year United States of America

January 9, 1957- Daily Worker ponders climate change

Sixty seven years ago, on this day, January 9th, 1957, The Daily Worker posed some questions, in the context of the International Geophysical Year, which was to begin six months hence.

“Can we predict earthquakes? Can dry spells be predicted in time to warn farmers? Is the earth warming up? Will the melting of ice caps and glaciers containing one per cent of the earth’s water, eventually submerge populated coastlines?”

Woods, P. 1957. Forty countries set to collaborate in a gigantic scientific experiment. Daily Worker, January 9, p.6. 

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 314ppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that two years previously, on January 2 1955, The Worker had posed similar questions.

Also, the International Geophysical Year was about to begin, it was well understood that the planet was warming. And that if it continued to do that, the ice caps would melt and that would have an impact on sea level rise. This was an empirical finding. People didn’t necessarily ascribe it to carbon dioxide build-up. But by the time the Daily Worker article appeared, there had been several articles in the mainstream press and some scientists speculating about the problem. 

What we can learn as with January 2, left-wing papers had a view on environmental destruction and environmental issues. That perhaps belies or at least complicates the easy caricature of them as “industrialise, industrialised industrialise and worry about green stuff later.” 

What happened next, the International Geophysical Year kicked off six months later. Accurate measurements of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere started to be taken in March of 1958. It quickly became apparent that the levels were indeed rising as had been suggested by Guy Callendar. That it was at that point that if the species had wanted to stick around for a few centuries, it would have started thinking about not burning fossil fuels. But there is no such thing as the species having a central organising committee, or even a body for discussing this. And so we blundered on thinking that the lunch we were eating was free. And those who tried to stop the blundering, were smeared, well, ignored, dismissed. And if they persisted, then they smeared and attacked, because that’s the way it works. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

January 9, 1974 – The UK sets up a “Department of Energy”

Jan 9 1995 – “Efficiency” promises vs hated and feared regulation/taxation #Predatory Delay #auspol

Categories
Science Scientists

January 8, 1968 – LaMont Cole to AAAS about running outta oxygen, build-up of C02 etc

Fifty six years ago, on this day, January 8th, 1968,

According to a Newsweek report (8 January 1968), Professor L. C. Cole of Cornell University (in a paper delivered at the 134th annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science) asks whether man is not destroying the earth’s natural supply of oxygen. He points out (1) that the increasing combustion of fossil fuels has greatly accelerated the formation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and (2) that, in the United States alone, some one million acres of suburbanised forest and grassland each year lose their ability to regenerate the oxygen supply through photosynthesis.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 323ppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that there was concern among a few scientists that levels of oxygen would drop and that we would all ultimately suffocate. That was rendered null a year or two after this, but there was generalised concern about oxygen levels, carbon dioxide levels, you name it. As the consequences of modernity, as we laughingly call it, were becoming apparent. Cynically, you could also say that people were so fed up with the Vietnam War, but there were costs attached to speaking out against that, that they found something else to be worried about….

What we can learn is that there have been scientists warning of trouble ahead. But those scientists may have sometimes understandably picked something to be concerned about that wasn’t actually there. That doesn’t mean that all warnings are bad warnings. 

What happened next, as above, the oxygen depletion thing was put to bed in 1970 or so. Lamont Cole died in I think, 1979. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

References

Cole, L. 1968. Can the World Be Saved? BioScience, Vol. 18, No. 7 pp. 679-684 http://www.jstor.org/stable/1294188 .https://doi.org/10.2307/1294188

Also on this day: 

Jan 8, 1958 – “The masters of infinity… could control the world’s weather”, says LBJ

January 8, 2003 – Energy firms plan to “bury carbon emissions”…

January 8, 2013 – Australian Prime Minister connects bush fires and #climate change

Categories
Scientists technosalvationism United Kingdom

January 7, 2004 – geoengineering our way outa trouble?

Twenty years ago, on this day, January 7th, 2004,

Big ideas for reducing the impacts of climate change are being evaluated by an international line-up of leading scientists from the US, mainland Europe and the UK at a symposium in Cambridge this week. The meeting is being jointly hosted by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and the Cambridge-MIT Institute. The scientists are coming together to evaluate which large-scale bio-engineering, geo-engineering and chemical engineering ideas to combat global warming are worthy of further investigation, and which are best left on the drawing board. The symposium, called “Macro-engineering options for climate change management and mitigation” is at the Isaac Newton Institute in Cambridge from 7-9 January.

https://www.cam.ac.uk/news/planet-sized-solutions-for-global-warming

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 377ppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that the IPCC Third Assessment Report had come out and the UK energy white paper had come out in February 2003 positing a 60% cut in emissions by 2050, and it was obvious that some big technological efforts were going to be required. The international negotiations were adrift with the Americans having pulled out of Kyoto, followed by the Australians. The IPCC was in the midst of writing its special report on CCS. So of course, a bunch of well-respected, high-powered, academics would get together and … spit ball about technological fantasies to save the world. 

What we can learn from this is that to really understand what’s going on, you do have to understand the context of what had gone before. And place yourself in the heads of organisers or speakers, without giving yourself information that they couldn’t have had, because the events hadn’t happened yet. 

What else can we can learn is that rather than criticise existing political and social arrangements, high-powered academics who are ultimately benefiting from existing social and political arrangements will dream up techno-fantasies, because to question the entire system would be to question their place in it, and no one gets career points for that. 

What happened next? The techno-fantasies started coming thicker and faster, and they’re with us now, 20 years later in full flight. Because we did nowt, boys and girls, about dealing with the social and political issues. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

References

Xxx

Also on this day: 

January 7, 2013 – Australian climate activist pretends to be ANZ bank, with spectacular results 

Jan 7, 2013

Categories
Activism United States of America

January 7, 1970 – “Ecology Action East” is “intersectional”

Fifty four years ago, on this day, January 7, 1970 a pre-Earth Day radical student group called “Ecology Action East” was ahead of the game, in terms of how it’s a BIG puzzle. They said that they believed:

– that the ecological crisis is fundamentally a social problem, deeply rooted in the structure of society and in the cultural values that this society generates and reinforces.

–that all social institutions of domination and exploitation, from the patriarchal family to the modem nation-state, must be dissolved.

— that… the ecology movement is also inseparable from the liberation movement of colonial peoples, black and brown people, American Indians, working people, gay people, women, youth, and children.

(Rat, January 7, 1970, p. 10) 

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 324ppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that, from 1968 onwards, people had started to think seriously about the consequences of modernity, (good title – someone should write a book. Oh, wait they have) and the ecological impacts that might be coming down the pipe, and because of the pipe. In September ‘69, there’d been the announcement that an Earth Day would happen. But this was sponsored by a US senator, albeit a liberal one. And in the context of the Vietnam War a lot of activists were taking a serious look into the mouth of the gift horse. And groups like Ecology Action East, marrying the radical as in root cause, to critique of US imperialism as it applied to Vietnam with an ecological sensibility, and seeing that it was also connected to all these other issues. This is really intersectionality long before the word was invented. 

What we can learn is that most of us have, a lot of us have known for a long, long time that the issues were linked, even hyperlinked, and that you weren’t going to “solve” any one without solving a lot else, though, you might have some short term gains. 

What happened next. Groups like Ecology Action East were unable to sustain their momentum. And it all went tits up for them within a couple of years. And it was only another 20 years almost later, that ecology was really kicked off. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

References

Ecology Action East. 1970. The Power to Destroy – The Power to Create. Root & Branch No. 1, pp. 8-14

https://libcom.org/library/manifesto-ecology-action-east

Also on this day: 

January 7, 2013 – Australian climate activist pretends to be ANZ bank, with spectacular results 

Jan 7, 2013 – Paper (briefly) wraps rock. But coal wins in the end… #auspol

Categories
United States of America

January 6, 1883 – The New York Times reports on the Atmosphere

One hundred and thirty-one years ago, on this day, January 6th, 1883, the New York Times took the righteous mickey out of something that had recently appeared in the UK scientific journal Nature…

Anon, 1883 – The Atmosphere, New York Times, January 6, p.4. 

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 293ppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context is that everybody talks about the weather (but nobody does anything about it). And there was all sorts of speculation back and forth about what air quality might do to people. And this, of course, is one of the denialist “arguments”; “people have always been worried about the weather, therefore, there’s nothing new under the sun. Therefore, there’s nothing to worry about.” This is every bit as vacuous as it appears at first sight, but it’s very effective among people who just want to stick their fingers in their ears and shout la la la, which seems to be most everyone most of the time. 

What happened next? Well, there’s other stuff that’s interesting (watch this space) but then in 1896, Svante Arrhenius’ article about carbonic acid was published. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

References

Xxx

Also on this day: 

Jan 6, 1971- the whiff of sulphur (taxes) and 20 more years of #PredatoryDelay

January 6, 1995 – Australian business interests battle a carbon tax with “nobody else is acting” argument