Author: drmarchudson

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Canada

December 20, 1983 – Documentary on “the Climate Crisis” shown

Forty years ago, on this day, December 20, 1983, a documentary about what was coming was shown.

1983 Climate Crisis

This summer’s record temperatures may be one of the signs that the earth’s atmosphere is warming up. NOVA looks at the climate predictions and hazard warnings for the next century, based on the effects of our soaring consumption of fossil fuels.

Original broadcast date: 12/20/83 

Topic: environment/ecology

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 343ppm. As of 2023 it is 423ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that 1983 had been a big year for environmental issues. You had the June conference of the Global 2000 people but most significantly in October you’d had the EPA and NAS reports, which presumably were part of the impetus for this documentary which you can see online.

Some of this footage may have been taken from the 1981 Anglia TV documentary “Warming Warning” – which would explain the director credit for Richard Broad…

What I think we can learn from this is that people knew.

What happened next

The NOVA documentary got repeated and I think in 1986 it was on in New York and I did a blog post about it without knowing all the details.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs..

Categories
Australia Carbon Capture and Storage

December 19, 2010 – CCS dies in Queensland

Thirteen years ago, on this day, December 19, 2010, the CCS dream dies.

“The announcement by the Queensland Government that it plans to transition out of the Zerogen vehicle, does not signal a significant impediment to the continued development and demonstration of CCS technologies in Queensland,” Mr Hillman said. In its announcement today the Queensland Government makes it clear that it remains committed to the development of CCS and will continue to be a significant funder of this technology along with the Commonwealth Government and industry.”

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 390ppm. As of 2023 it is 421ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was the CCS bubble was bursting because promises were not being backed up and investors were taking a long hard look at the numbers and of course by this time it wasn’t clear when or even if there would ever be a carbon price in Australia, and whether it would be high enough. But you’d need a seriously high carbon price to make CCS work and if you had a really high carbon price you’d incentivise other forms of electricity generation such as wind and solar ahead of coal-supported CCS – just the facts of life.

What I think we can learn from this 

CCS keeps falling over and it keeps being put back up on its feet, a bit like nuclear, because there are strong lobby groups trying to help it to happen, and it helps the numbers add up.

What happened next

 CCS died in Australia but as all has been put on life-support and is now still being supported in 2023 by people who who either too thick to know better or do know better. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs..

Categories
Activism United Kingdom

December 19, 1988 – the launch of “Ark”

Thirty five years ago, on this day, December 19, 1988, celebrities get on board an Ark, for a star-studded launch…

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 351ppm. As of 2023 it is 420ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that there was this exuberant ex-Greenpeace director (who had been a Daily Mirror hack) and had written in the early 70s about environmental depletion. He had gotten some money to put together a big manifesto. They had celebrities on board and it was going to be all-singing all-dancing. There were going to be little Arks, it was going to combine the business end, the social movement end the celebrity end – all singing all dancing all of the time.

And it did not come to pass

What I think we can learn from this

People get high on their own supply. People get drunk thinking that what needs to happen will therefore happen because it needs to happen. But that’s circular and it doesn’t reflect reality. But then reality is no fun.

What happened next

By July 1989 Ark had collapsed under the weight of its own contradictions.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs..

Categories
Activism United States of America

December 18, 2008 – Tim DeChristopher does his auction action

Fifteen years ago, on this day, December 18, 2008, American climate activist Tim DeChristopher took a bold action that landed him in prison.

 In December 2008, he protested a Bureau of Land Management (BLM) oil and gas lease auction of 116 parcels of public land in Utah‘s redrock country by successfully bidding on 14 parcels of land (totaling 22,500 acres) for $1.8 million with no intent to pay for them.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_DeChristopher#Appeal

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 386ppm. As of 2023 it is 420ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was

that the state is endlessly auctioning off land for extraction; that’s the ideology of extractivism. In 2008 the climate crisis was already absolutely freaking clear – you’d had the fourth assessment report of the IPCC, you were getting all the weird weather and worse. Everybody knew. 

What I think we can learn from this

When you spoof the money for you interfere with the money myths, people get particularly irate because well it’s a fetish and nobody likes to be reminded that it’s a fetish.

What happened next

Tim Christopher did some jail time, and here we are.

See also Jonathan Moylan and the ANZ bank spoof.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs..

Categories
Uncategorized

On getting things wrong – a meditation and apology

First thing is – I screwed up, and there’s absolutely nobody else to blame.

I posted yesterday this blog post.

It’s something that I wrote the first draft of a year ago, and had updated at some point since.

The problem with it is that the quoted scientist, Mike Pentz, was not warning about C02 build-up, but rather ‘waste heat’. If I had been paying closer attention, I would have spotted that.

The consequence is that I’ve put out a blog post (and it gained some traction – a bunch of likes and retweets) which is inaccurate, which pisses me off.

Fortunately, someone on Twitter, Mike Holderness, very kindly pointed out my error. See here.

The whole story – that some scientists were worried about an ice age from all the dusty and aerosols (Reid Bryson, and early Stephen Schneider), while others worried about ‘waste heat’ (Howard Wilcox, Mike Pentz) while still others (Keeling, Bolin, Flohn, MacDonald, Commoner, Kingsley Dunham, etc) were worried about carbon dioxide – is a MORE interesting version than what I told.

So, that means that a) people have been misled (albeit unintentionally) by me and b) I look like either i) I don’t know what I am talking about or ii) I am deliberately over-egging the pudding (which I don’t need to do – there are plenty of earlier-than-1973 examples of carbon dioxide warnings). Not a good day’s work…

It happened, as far as I can reconstruct, because I was so taken with the opportunity for a “50 years” post (I do like my round numbers) and didn’t read the article carefully enough. Then there was the symmetry with the Canberra Times article comparing climate to nuclear war… So, I saw what I wanted/needed to see, and didn’t double-check…

Can this be avoided in future? Well, I can try, but to be honest, in the absence of someone vetting every single post, I can’t exclude the possibility that it will recur. If it does I’ll do a retraction/explanation.

Categories
Carbon Capture and Storage Europe

December 17, 2008 – European Parliament says yes to funding CCS

Fifteen years ago, on this day, December 17, 2008, the European Parliament accepted a deal that included CCS funding via ETS. (source – Lerum Boasson and Wetestad, 2014:409)

“On 17 December 2008 the European Parliament passed the directive governing phase III of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), which will make available until 31 December 2015 up to 300 million free allowances from the new entrants’ reserve for the construction and operation of up to 12 demonstration projects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and innovative renewable energy projects” (Hansard).

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 386ppm. As of 2023 it is 420ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that Europe was looking to improve the climate performance of its energy sector. I think industrial emissions were not such a big concern and certainly weren’t being approached via CCS as they are now. There were people pushing for CCS who absolutely hated it

There is a wonderful quote from the Liberal Democrat Chris Davies who was an MEP at the time 

“xxx”

Meanwhile the British were pushing forward with their CCS competition and down under Kevin Rudd had spaffed 100 million of Australian taxpayer money against the wall to create the Global Carbon Capture and Storage Institute so things were looking up for this technology.

What I think we can learn from this

The European Union had convinced itself to go along with yet another American scheme. They’d gone along with emissions trading and now were doing the same for CCS. Has either been effective? No. So have the Americans been able to force the agenda onto people who not only ought to know better but do know better? Yes.

What happened next

Then it fell apart, like it always does.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs..

Categories
United Kingdom

December 17, 1973 – “Global warming will make nuclear war look like a fire cracker in your backyard.”

UPDATE – Ooops. I got this wrong. See here. (17 Dec 2023)

Fifty years ago today, on 17 December 1973 the physicist Mike Pentz (Open University, and Cambridge) gave a public talk warning of the trouble ahead…,

Compare with 14 and a half years later-

Anon, 1988. Scientists warn of devastation. Canberra Times, 2 July, p.6.

TORONTO, Friday (KRD).—Toronto scientists and policymakers from 46 nations say global damage from “greenhouse” warming and other man-made atmospheric changes may ultimately be second in magnitude only to the devastation of a nuclear war.

They also called on industrialised countries to tax fossil-fuel consumption to finance a fund to protect the atmosphere and drastically cut carbon-dioxide emissions.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 329ppm. As of 2023 it is 420ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that the scientific consensus around carbon dioxide as a major problem was still in its early phases, but plenty of people could see real trouble ahead, on the basis of 19th century physics.

What we can learn

It was basic physics. You didn’t really need that big a crystal ball to figure it out.

What happened next

The British State faffed its way through the 1970s on this question. The first report, finally released in 1980 was a “maybe, yeah, nothing to see here” effort. Only in 1988 did the issue finally break through.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs..

Categories
Australia

 December 16, 2008 – “The Australian” attacks on climate change

Fifteen years ago, on this day, December 16, 2008, the “news” paper the Australian goes to town on Kevin Rudd’s (admittedly wretched) white paper about the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme…

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 386ppm. As of 2023 it is 420ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was Kevin Rudd had become Australian Prime Minister in November 2007. A large part of his “offer” was to do something about climate change. He had sidelined independent expert Ross Garnaut for being too independent, and set up a green paper and white paper process. There had been enormous lobbying and in the words of Garnaut “never had so much been given by so many to so few” 

The Australian had been largely sceptical, talking up both scientific doubts and economic consequences. And of course this is in the context of global financial crisis which had started in September 2008.

The white paper had been released to mostly disappointment (and a physical protest at the National Press Club) a week earlier and this Australian page 3 page spread is part of the response.

What I think we can learn from this is that some people thought Rudd was going far too far others thought that there was no ambition. The latter were correct.

What happened next

Rudd bottled it. In 2009 Rudd tried twice to get legislation through with virtually no skill. The contrast with Julia Gillard with the minority government in 2011 is remarkable.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs..

Categories
Australia

December 16, 2004 – “2 degrees of warming to be a catastrophe”

Nineteen years ago, on this day, December 16, 2004, we got another warning.

SCIENTISTS have warned of the catastrophic consequences of a 2C rise in global temperatures.

They say it could threaten Latin American water supplies, cut food yields in Asia and lead to a rise in extreme weather in the Caribbean.

The warnings were issued in a report led by a group of European scientists and presented at a UN conference on climate change. It was released as delegates from almost 200 nations refined details of the Kyoto Protocol, a global warming treaty, to be implemented in February.

Hobart Mercury (2004) Just 2C could ruin us Hobart Mercury 16th December

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 377ppm. As of 2023 it is 420ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that through the 2000s scientists became more certain and more desperate about the impacts of a rapidly warming world. And some newspapers would pick up on this periodically, although the Hobart Mercury is part of Murdoch’s stable, it for whatever reason had always had slightly more independence (being, I think, the only Murdoch paper that did not support the Iraq War).

What I think we can learn from this

We have known exactly what was coming for us, and we have not acted. Of course unpacking that “we” is crucial. It mostly means our lords and masters…

What happened next

We did not act on this warning and all the other warnings that have come since. There is also such a thing as “too late.”

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs..

Categories
Australia Denial

December 15, 2009 – Monbiot versus Plimer on Lateline

Fourteen years ago, on this day, December 15, 2009, UK commentator George Monbiot took on and demolished Australian geologist Ian Plimer.

2009 Monbiot versus Pilmer on Lateline http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2009/s2772906.htm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iEsygjXunTs

http://www.monbiot.com/2009/12/17/showdown-with-plimer/

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 387.6ppm. As of 2023 it is 420ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that everyone was talking climate because of the recently concluded Copenhagen conference and the general upsurge in concern over the previous three years. Plimer had written a book called “Heaven and Earth” which has become a major denialist tract. Monbiot was always up for a ruck. Monbiot had already put paid to David Bellamy’s appearances by pointing out that Bellamy had completely misunderstood an aspect of glacier retreat.

What I think we can learn from this

That is rare for a single intellectual crushing and humiliation to particularly matter, but cumulatively they can, I guess.

What happened next

Plimer kept plimering. Monbiot kept publishing. Kevin Rudd did not announce the double dissolution election in response to the blockage of his wretched legislation. The Australia climate wars just got worse. And the emissions kept climbing.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs..