Categories
Australia

January 19,1992 – they gambled, we lost

Thirty two years ago, on this day, January 19th, 1992,

“One of the CSIRO’s top scientists says doubters of the greenhouse effect are gambling with the future of the world. Dr Graeme Pearman, coordinator of the CSIRO’s climate change research program, said yesterday there was little doubt global warming was a reality according to all the best scientific models.”

Anon, 1992. Greenhouse cynics gambling with future. Canberra Times, January 20

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 357ppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that the denialist campaigns in Australia, helped by imported American scientists, had been successful. And the Hawke and then Keating governments had significantly softened their stance, their already weak appetite for economic measures, such as a carbon tax. Pearman, who had been studying the climate issue for 20 years by this stage, knew what was at stake and was publicly pushing back. 

What we can learn from this is that scientists have been correctly predicting that the gamble was going on and correctly predicting that there might be losers in that gamble. 

What happened next is that a carbon tax came back onto the agenda in 1994-95. It was again defeated, then tax became ETS in the late 90s. Everyone was talking about it. And then finally Tony Abbott killed it off. More broadly Pearman has been very public about the struggles back then.

And we are toast. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

January 19, 1968 – Engineers are not ecologists…

January 19, 1976 – The carbon consequences of cement get an early discussion.

January 19, 2015 -Four utilities pull out of an EU CCS programme…

Categories
United Kingdom

January 18, 1964 – Nature mentions atmospheric carbon dioxide build-up

Sixty years ago, on this day, January 18th, 1964, Nature published an article about the British Association for the Advancement of Science (BAAS) meeting in September 1963, at which Peter Ritchie-Calder (yes, him again!) had spoken about CO2 build-up,

 “Discharge of combustion products into the atmosphere had increased its content of carbon dioxide by 10 per cent in a century. The ‘green house effect’ could be expected to increase average mean temperature by 3·6° C in the next 4Q-50 years. This would radically affect the extent of glaciers and ice-caps with resultant rise in sea- and river-levels and increasing precipitation. 

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 319ppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that by 1963 people like Ritchie Calder were speaking publicly about CO2 buildup. It was no secret among the scientific elite in the United Kingdom. And well. You know, Nature was covering it. This is probably before John Maddox came along as editor.

What we learn is that there’s an entire history of admissions about CO2 build up. It’s not a secret, it’s not considered outlandish. It’s just one of those things. This is also two years after Mariner had gone to Venus and captured a lot of information. 

What happened next? It would be 1967 before the CO2 issue really received a boost with the BBC programme Challenge and so forth. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

January 18, 1993 – Australian unions and greenies launch first “Green Jobs” campaign

January 18, 1993 – Job’s not a good un. “Green Jobs in Industry Plan” achieves … nothing. #auspol

Categories
Australia

January 17, 1970 – The Bulletin reprints crucial environment/climate article

Fifty four years ago, on this day, January 17, 1970, the Australian magazine the Bulletin ran a front page story,

 Global Pollution; What on earth are the scientists doing

It was a reprint of a recent article by the Scottish thinker Peter Ritchie-Calder, called “Mortgaging the Old Homestead” which appeared in “Foreign Affairs,” the journal of the then hugely influential Council on Foreign Relations.

That article, which was also reprinted in Sports Illustrated and elsewhere, contains the following paragraphs (which were in the Bulletin too).

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 324ppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that the Australian magazine The Bulletin liked to sell copies of course, and it had gotten hooked into the eco-trend that had started in late 1969. And therefore, there was a cover you can see here and large excerpts from an article by Ritchie Calder called Mortgaging the Old Homestead. And yes, there was explicit mention of carbon dioxide build up. So, anyone reading a popular magazine in Australia would have been aware of the potential issue. 

What we can learn is that by late 1969, the eco fears were serious and large. We can learn that Ritchie Calder was a prominent public intellectual. And we can learn that Australians knew about carbon dioxide build up. There had after all, been in September of 69, various symposia, conferences, radio programmes, you name it. We knew we flipping knew. 

What happened next. There were all sorts of events, protests, laws, ministers appointed, but by 1973, the eco fad had run its course; everyone was bored, frustrated. The battles that then happened were, understandably, about local issues such as Concorde and whether it should fly to Australia and logging and Lake Pedder. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

References

Xxx

Also on this day: 

January 17th – A religious perspective on climate action

January 17, 2001 – Enron engineers energy “blackouts” to gouge consumers

Categories
Activism United States of America

January 16, 1919 – banning things that people like turns out not to work

One hundred and five years ago, on this day, January 16th 1919, a social movement got what it wanted. Utopia did not ensue.

The United States ratified the Eighteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution, authorizing Prohibition in the United States one year after ratification. 

Legislation versus habit… ends badly… Baptists and bootleggers blah blah

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 303ppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that Temperance groups had been pushing for decades for a law banning booze. And they’d gotten their way. And of course, this meant an explosion of organised crime because people still wanted to drink. And health implications from bathtub gin, the bootleggers’ violence, you name it. So not everything that a popular – or at least powerful – social movement wants and pushes through the legislature is automatically good or democratic, who knew? 

What we learn is that there is such a thing as “Baptists and bootleggers,” there can be an unholy symbiosis between religious zealots and banning things to create black markets. Yes, that is a right-wing talking point against climate legislation. 

I suppose the other thing we learned is that banning stuff can feel good. And certainly with the case of fossil fuels, you really need to push the alternatives hard and stop the people trying to stop you. Am I making any sense? 

What happened next. Prohibition lasted for 14 years, gave us organised crime, gun battles, gangsters, you name it. And then one of the first things that Franklin Roosevelt did, upon taking office, was to abolish it and everyone could get legally drunk again. What an extraordinary episode in human history, one that I haven’t thought about enough. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

January 16, 1995: There’s power in a (corporate) union #auspol

January 16, 2003 – Chicago Climate Exchange names founding members

Categories
United States of America

January 15, 1981 – US calls for effort to combat global environmental problems

Forty-three years ago, on this day, January 15th 1981, as the Reagan gang were about to take over, there was a plaintive plea…

Shabecoff, Philip. “U.S. Calls for Efforts To Combat Global Environmental Problems.” New York Times, January 15, 1981.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 340ppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context 

This is the last throw of the dice for the Council on Environmental Quality under Jimmy Carter. It had done some good stuff. The CEQ staffer Gus Speth had spent the last four years trying to push climate up the agenda. There had also been the Global 2000 report, which was produced by a separate body. Carter had lost the November 1980 election to Reagan who literally does not give a damn about conserving anything but is keen for ever greater exploitation.

What we can learn from this is that we knew what needed to be done. And we kept electing people who didn’t want to do it because they appealed to our ego, or our greed or something. 

What happened next? Reagan came in and shat all over climate action, environment action. See James Watt, etc, etc. And the emissions kept climbing and it was 1988 before presidential candidates were forced to speak about it. (There’s a more interesting story of Republican senators like John Chafee and so forth, actually understanding what was at stake in the mid-80s.) And the journo who wrote this story, Shabecoff? He also wrote the June 24th 1988 story on Hansen.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

Jan 15, 1971 – greenwash before it was called greenwash #propaganda

January 15, 1990 – A political lunch with enormous #climate consequences for Australia #PathDependency #Denial  

Categories
United States of America

January 14, 1962 – As much truth as one can bear, James Baldwin

Sixty two years ago, on this day, January 14th 1962, American thinker and writer James Baldwin delivers a crucial bit of wisdom –  “Not everything that can be faced can be changed, but nothing can be changed until it is faced” – in a New York Times opinion piece.

AS MUCH TRUTH AS ONE CAN BEAR: To Speak Out About the World as It Is, New York Times Jan 14, 1962 

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 318ppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that James Baldwin had fled the United States to France, simply to stay alive. Being a queer, smart black man well, you were in a “bummer of a birthmark Hal” situation, weren’t you? But he’d obviously stayed in touch with what was happening. And my god, he was a brilliant essayist, and thinker. And the reason I’m citing this is that it contains the apparently first use of his crucial phrase, “not everything that can be faced, can be changed, but nothing can be changed until it is faced.”

What we can learn is that there are smart people all around and we ought to pay more attention to them and to their ideas.

What happened next. Baldwin was heavily involved in advocating for civil rights. There is a movie that you simply must see. called I am not your Negro. Baldwin died in 1987.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

Jan 14, 1972 – “A Blueprint for Survival” hits the headlines

January 14, 2010 – Investors hold UN summit on #climate risk

Categories
Australia Carbon Pricing

January 13, 2004 – Bob Carr rallies states for emissions trading

Twenty years ago, on this day, January 13th, 2004, NSW was trying to get an Australia-wide emissions trading scheme going, since John Howard wouldn’t…

NSW is keen to enlist the support of the other states for a national greenhouse emissions trading scheme, but analysts are divided on whether it would work. The Premier, Bob Carr, yesterday labelled as scandalous the Federal Government’s decision to abandon carbon trading as one way of reducing Australia’s carbon dioxide emissions. Mr Carr, who is in favour of Australia ratifying the Kyoto protocol on climate change, wants the states to establish an alternative emissions trading scheme. 

New South Wales Premier Bob Carr says the Federal Government is “in denial” about the effects of greenhouse gas emissions. The Federal Government has decided to stop work on a greenhouse gas emissions trading scheme, saying it offers little incentive for business. The scheme is linked to the Kyoto protocol, which the Australian Government has not signed. But Mr Carr says the Federal Government’s move has potentially cost jobs for Australians involved in the emissions trading industry. “We’ve got an opportunity to benefit – Australia can benefit from emissions trading and the Federal Government is pulling out of this,” Mr Carr said. “Whether they sign up to Kyoto or they don’t, there’s a case for emissions trading and Australia can only benefit from being part of an emissions trading system.”

Peatling, S. and Pearlman, J. 2004. Carr rallies states for onslaught on emissions. Sydney Morning Herald, 13 January. http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/01/12/1073877762902.html

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 377ppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that personally Bob Carr had been aware of the climate issue since 1971. And as premier of New South Wales since 1995 he’d been trying to turn New South Wales into a carbon trader or place where the Japanese could buy some trees to offset their emissions. More broadly, he’d been campaigning for emissions trading schemes. There had been two attempts to get a national federal Emissions Trading Scheme through John Howard’s cabinet. One had been defeated in August of 2000. And another had been defeated in August 2003, at which point Carr presumably said to himself, “sod this for a game of soldiers. Let’s do it ourselves”. This was made easier by the fact that most of the states were at that time under ALP control. 

What we learn from this is that policies that are perceived as good ideas (and emissions trading is, after all, perceived as a good idea) are hard to kill. I mean, fair play to him, Tony Abbott finally succeeded in the period 2010 to 14, but before then, emissions trading was like this vampire policy, you just could not kill it off.

What happened next? The states kept talking about it. Finally, in the beginning of 2007, Kevin Rudd as opposition leader started promising an emissions trading scheme. And well, the rest is history. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

January 13, 2005- UN Secretary-General calls for “decisive measures” on climate change

January 13, 2021 – New Scientist reports on types of intelligence required to deal with #climate change   

Categories
Australia Carbon Pricing

January 12, 1995 – Australian carbon tax coming??

Twenty nine years ago, on this day, January 12th 1995 the game of chicken and dare around a carbon price in Australia was coming to a head. A front page story in the Canberra Times began as follows,

“A greenhouse gas levy remains firmly on the Government’s agenda, with the bureaucratic working group responsible for developing the levy meeting for the first time yesterday.”

 Henderson, I. 1995. Greenhouse gas levy remains to the fore. The Canberra Times, 12 January, p.1.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 360ppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that the Australian Conservation Foundation (a big green NGO) and others had been pushing for a carbon tax for years initially as part of the Ecologically Sustainable Development policymaking process. And although they had suffered defeats, they didn’t let it go. New Environment Minister John Faulkner had taken that on board and he had also taken on board Phlilip Toyne who had been a major force in the Australian green movement as head of the Australian Conservation Foundation. 

What we can learn is that there is a great deal of believing when you’re top of the web or “dissent ecosystem”, (not that you can be at the ‘top’ of such a thing) in that when you’re a big player it’s tempting to believe that you can join the system and change the system from within. Then there’s a logic to doing so, or wanting to do so: beyond easy claims and smears of careerism, and parlaying radicalism to take one of the jobs for the boys. Toyne tried. He failed to get the tax up – but that was because the opposition to it was clear and clever and the support for it did not have its shit together.

What happened next a month and two days after this was in the newspapers, Environment Minister John Faulkner pulled the plug on a carbon tax. Instead, there was a meaningless voluntary scheme, the Greenhouse Challenge, which was reheated a couple of times, but frankly, never amounted to a bucket of warm spit. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

References

Xxx

Also on this day: 

Jan 12, 1983 – RIP to the “master organizer in the world of science”, Carroll Wilson

January 12, 2008 – Australian mining lobby group ups its “sustainability” rhetoric #PerceptionManagement #Propaganda   

Categories
United States of America

January 11, 1970 – A new Ice Age on its way?

Fifty four years ago, on this day, January 11th, 1970, The Washington Post ran a story extrapolating from the previous decades and… well,

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 324ppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that nobody was quite sure what the implications of industrialization might be. Yes, carbon dioxide would build up. But also dust and sulphur. And they had been reducing temperatures globally, or at least in the northern hemisphere for good 20 years. What if that process were to continue? Would it be possible to tip the incredibly complex, but possibly fragile and labile atmospheric system into a new ice age? We can look back now with hollow/grim laughter, but in 1969 1970, it wasn’t quite so clear cut. 

What we can learn from this is that people were having these debates and the Washington Post and others were covering them. 

What happened next? Well, although the Ice Age schtick continued for a few years, by the late 70s, it was pretty clear to everyone with the possible exception of Robert Jastrow that we were heading for warmer times (see here, in 1978). 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

References

Peterson et al. 2008. The myth of the global cooling consensus. BAMS Vol 89, 9.

Also on this day: 

Jan 11, 1964 -: The Merchants of Doubt have work to do

January 11, 2010 – Bad news study about trees and the warming Arctic…

Categories
Guest post

Guest post: “The Child Who Knew Too Much”

Here is a great guest post from Jennie Kermode, on what we knew, and how long ago….

The child who knew too much

When I was a kid I really, really wanted a silvery blue Porsche Turbo. not the most eco-friendly choice, I know, but I was far too young to have driven it – I just wanted to look at it, stroke it, sit inside it and watch other kids turn green with envy. Of course I never got it (though the local owner of a Ferrari did very nicely out of my brother by offering to sell that to him, piece by piece, at inflated rates), but it sat at the top of my birthday and Christmas lists for years. Next to that list, however, was another list, and what really used to upset me was how often that one was ignored. It was the list of things that I definitely did not want people to buy me.

There was some stuff on there about gendered toys. No Barbies, please, and nothing frilly. But most of it was devoted to products which I knew were doing harm to the world. Body sprays – a precursor to deodorants – were unpleasant enough in themselves, but I knew that they were destroying the ozone layer. I didn’t want things with lots of plastic packaging because I knew it was polluting the seas. I was uncomfortable about mass consumption in general because I knew about climate change.

This was the late ‘seventies and early ‘eighties – an era when mass consumption was all the rage. Michael Douglas delivered a satirical line about greed being good and billions of people took it seriously. There was an actor in the White House and the promises of Thatcherism made themselves felt even where I was living, in Yorkshire, where all the lights went out at planned intervals because of the miners’ strike. My friends, and many of my relatives, thought that my concerns were hilarious. When related topics came up at school, teachers would join them in laughing at me. My chemistry teacher told me that plastic bag pollution was trivial because, basically, the world was big. I pointed out that there were a lot of us on it, but nobody took me seriously.

Why did I know what others did not? It wasn’t that I was some kind of savant – just that my father was a physicist. I was a curious child and kept asking questions. I talked to his colleagues. I talked to his brothers, a haematologist and an engineer, who had insights of their own. My mother, a teacher, taught me to read when I was two and I consumed every book I could get. With this background, I noticed what was happening in the wider world around me in a way that most other people did not. Consequently, few of the symptoms of climate change that we saw then or that we have seen since have surprised me. Sometimes I feel as if I have been screaming for half a century and a very small proportion of people have noticed or cared.

In the face of that, it can be hard to hold onto hope. I was thirteen or so when, in a biology lesson, one of my teachers talked about bacterial cultures and the common pattern of their growth in a contained space: lag phase, log phase, death phase. Immediately, I associated it with the human population and recognised where we were on that journey.

I also read a lot of history. I knew fine well that people in almost every age have believed that they were living in the last days. Could we be just as wrong? I hope so. Humanity keeps surprising me; keeps pushing past its limits in unexpected ways. But I know better than to rely on it. So I put my talents to use where I can: in media, seeking to broaden conversations and bring in different kinds of expertise, seeking to encourage my readers to use their brains, and deliver bitter pills of understanding wrapped up in entertainment which helps them to go down more easily. Always I am aware of the ticking of the clock.

I am aware, too, of the absences. I used to do a lot of tape recording as a child. I know that, even in similar environments, the birds don’t sing as loudly as they did. I used to go berry picking. Now the berries come earlier every year. I used to sit outside in my grandmother’s garden and listen to the bees buzzing around the flowerbeds. They, too, have grown much quieter. But there are winners. More jellyfish in the sea. Vineyards spreading across the South of England. Scottish home-grown tea. Earth abides. When parts of it become too hot for human habitation year-round, what strange new forms will grow up there, free from our interference? Perhaps that is too optimistic; perhaps we will assault them with robotic vehicles, as we have the deep sea.

One thing I am sure of: the next fifty years will look very different from the last. Kids will no doubt continue to dream of shiny, unaffordable machines, but more and more of them will prioritise simply getting enough to eat.

Jennie Kermode is an author, journalist and human rights campaigner, inclusivity coordinator at the Bylines Network and content director at Eye For Film.