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May 19, 1997 – BP boss says “If we are to take responsibility for the future of our planet, then it falls to us to begin to take precautionary action now.”

On May 19, 1997, 25 years ago, and months before the Kyoto meeting at which the world’s richest countries are supposed to agree binding emissions cuts, the Chief Executive Office of one of the world’s biggest oil companies, John Browne of BP, makes a speech at Stanford University.

This marks the end of the united anti-climate front of the oil majors, exemplified by the “Global Climate Coalition.”

Browne said, in part

“There is now an effective consensus among the world’s leading scientists and serious and well informed people outside the scientific community that there is a discernible human influence on the climate and a link between the concentration of carbon dioxide and the increase in temperature … it would be unwise and potentially dangerous to ignore the mounting concern.” He added: “If we are to take responsibility for the future of our planet, then it falls to us to begin to take precautionary action now.”

You can read the whole thing on the Climate Files website.

And here’s the video.

What happened next

BP changed its logo.

Why this matters

Fracture points and critical junctures that turn out to… well, not matter as much as they seemed to. What can ya do?

See also

“The overlapping and nesting of organizational fields implies that developments in one country or industry can disrupt the balance of forces elsewhere. For example, the landmark speech by British Petroleum’s Group Chief Executive, John Browne on 19 May 1997 represented a major fissure in the oil industry’s position, which bore implications for other industries in Europe and in the USA”. (Levy and Egan, 2003: 820)

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May 4th, 2012 – The Heartland Institute tries the Unabomber smear. It, er, blows up in their face…

On this day, May 4th in 2012, the far-right Heartland Institute displayed an entirely sane and rational billboard with Ted Kaczynski, the Unabomber pictured on it…

Classy, eh?

This met with howls of outrage and probably marks the beginning of the end or the middle of the end for the Heartland Institute as a useful-to-the-right player. Big donors to it fled….

Why this matters

What happens time and again is these right wing flak/flank organisations get overconfident, believe their own publicity get captured by the culture warriors and overplay their hand have to be disowned by the less-swivel-eyed but equally (more) ecocidal outfits.

Then the constituent parts of the machine are broken down and reconstituted. You saw it with the Global Climate Coalition by about 1996 (with their attacks on Ben Santer) – they were becoming a reputational risk for some of the more mainstream and cautious members. You see it with the Tasman Institute in Australia, and other outfits. Culture warrior-dom contains the seeds of its own destruction, to get all dialectical?

What happened next?

Kaczynski is still in jail, will die there.

The Heartland Institute is still around, heckling the Pope and spamming science teachers.

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April 10th, 2010 – activists hold “party at the pumps”

On this day, April 10, in 2010, there was an attempt at a “party at the pumps” by Rising Tide. This was in the UK this was an attempt to use the reclaim the streets, street party blockade protesting that had worked so well in the late 90s, and arguably in the early noughties at point sources of carbon, ie petrol sates stations, (but they’re not actually point sources of carbon production, like power stations, they’re far more local.)

This did not “work”.  (Though for the counter view, see this – 

And it will continue probably not to work. This is an attempt at modifying an existing repertoire, and that’s praiseworthy. But on the whole, we don’t have the numbers for that. So what if they gave a party and nobody came? The cops also turned out in numbers. 

https://risingtide.org.uk/content/april-10th-party-pumps

Why this matters. 

Modifying a repertoire can work. Or it can fail.

What happened next?

Rising Tide and Climate Camp both gave up the ghost. For the following decade, there was “Reclaim the Power”. Now we’ve had Extinction Rebellion and “Just Stop Oil”.  And soon???

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March 7, 1996 – Australia hauled over coals for its definition of “equity” #auspol

On this day in 1996 at a meeting of the “Ad Hoc group, for the Berlin Mandate” – I will explain – Trinidad and Tobago threw shade at Australia for its definitions of equity. 

So in 1995, at the first “Conference of the Parties” (COP), the Berlin Mandate had been agreed, and it said that rich countries would have to come up with a deal for the third COP which was to be held in Kyoto. The rich countries would agree to some preliminary emissions cuts. 

The word “equity” was then fought over, and Trinidad and Tobago members of AOSIS, were not impressed with the Australian Government’s attempt to define equity in ways that would suit them.

To quote from the Earth Negotiation Bulletin – 

“TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO said Brazil’s proposal on QELROs provided a logical way forward and Germany’s proposal provided impetus to the work of the AGBM. He said the gas-by-gas approach is the simplest and most effective, and expressed surprise at Australia’s idea of equity. Each country could propose an idea of equity that suits its own needs.”

Why this matters. 

We need to remember that poor countries have been calling for justice, and rich countries have been telling them to go fuck themselves  for a very long time. Indeed, a lot earlier than 1996. 

What happened next?

The Berlin Mandate got to Kyoto. And a very weak deal was made, that both United States and Australia then pulled out of. The Kyoto Protocol finally became law without those two countries. In 2005. Negotiations then began to replace it, which led to the so-called Bali Roadmap to Copenhagen. And Copenhagen failed. And here we are 13 years later, having reverted to the Japanese concept of “pledge and review,” which is all we’re going to do. And those small island states are completely fucked.

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Feb 13, 2015 – We refuse to divest ourselves of illusions

On this day, in 2015, global divestment hit the headlines (see press release here). Divestment was one of those flavour of the month style campaigns where you try to leverage one part of a broader system to cause bigger change, in this case, trying to get institutional investors to take their money out of fossil fuel stocks, and it feels good. It feels like you’re putting a face on where the money goes, to quote. Marge Piercy’s Vida “Keep naming the enemy: put faces on where the money goes.” 

Why this matters

But like any tactical demand, it after a while it gets stale, it gets predictable, it gets less attention in the media. And that means fewer people turn up next time, which means the media is even less interested. And you go into a death spiral. And then along comes a new tactic. And so it goes. And that is why I’m talking today about divestment. (Again, I’m not shitting on the people who poured their heart and soul into it. I just think we need to understand that it’s a tactic, and it has a shelf-life.) 

What happened next? 

People don’t talk about divestment so much anymore. For a while everyone started trying to get local authorities and governments to declare climate emergencies. Now that’s dying down. We’re waiting for the next big thing. The end of the day. We need this historical and sociological perspective. But we mustn’t let those perspectives demoralise us and give us an excuse for doing nothing.