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April 4, 1978 – UK Chief Scientific Advisor worries about atmospheric C02 build-up

Okay, fourth of April 1978, the Chief Scientific Adviser to the UK Government Sir John Ashworth writes a letter in which he says – well, here is Janet Martin-Nielsen (2018) Computing the Climate: When Models Became Political  Historical Studies in the Natural Sciences (2018) 48 (2): 223–245.

“The Meteorological Office’s ‘‘important and very helpful’’ work on Concorde, Ashworth wrote in a secret letter to Berrill, proved the value of climate modeling to U.K. interests—and since ‘‘the real worry is now the CO2 level in the atmosphere’’ he continued, the Meteorological Office needed to focus its energy in that direction   . J. M. Ashworth to K. Berrill, re: ‘‘Meteorological Research,’’ 4 Apr 1978, secret KEW, CAB 184/567W01211, 

The context for this is that the UK Government had started looking via its World Trends Study Group at the climate issue, also paying attention to what was happening in the United States. Also you have to factor in the the aftermath of the very hot summer of 1976, and the very cold winter in the US and Canada of 1977. 

And it’s clear that they were trying to get their head around the problem. But not everyone in the UK scientific establishment was at all sold on this. And it would require other entrepreneurs as well, like Solly Zuckerman and Herman Bondi to push further. Unfortunately, all of this culminated in 1980 with Ashworth trying to brief the new Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, and her response was an incredulous “you want me to worry about the weather?”

And it would be another eight years before that she would do one of her turns because it turns out the lady was frequently for turning 

Why this matters. 

We need to puncture the myth that Thatcher deserves any credit whatsoever. She was warned a decade earlier,did nowt.

What happened next?

The problem stream entrepreneurs tried to get the issue paid attention to, but everything was against them.  And it had to wait until 1988 for attention to be paid….

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March 7, 1996 – Australia hauled over coals for its definition of “equity” #auspol

On this day in 1996 at a meeting of the “Ad Hoc group, for the Berlin Mandate” – I will explain – Trinidad and Tobago threw shade at Australia for its definitions of equity. 

So in 1995, at the first “Conference of the Parties” (COP), the Berlin Mandate had been agreed, and it said that rich countries would have to come up with a deal for the third COP which was to be held in Kyoto. The rich countries would agree to some preliminary emissions cuts. 

The word “equity” was then fought over, and Trinidad and Tobago members of AOSIS, were not impressed with the Australian Government’s attempt to define equity in ways that would suit them.

To quote from the Earth Negotiation Bulletin – 

“TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO said Brazil’s proposal on QELROs provided a logical way forward and Germany’s proposal provided impetus to the work of the AGBM. He said the gas-by-gas approach is the simplest and most effective, and expressed surprise at Australia’s idea of equity. Each country could propose an idea of equity that suits its own needs.”

Why this matters. 

We need to remember that poor countries have been calling for justice, and rich countries have been telling them to go fuck themselves  for a very long time. Indeed, a lot earlier than 1996. 

What happened next?

The Berlin Mandate got to Kyoto. And a very weak deal was made, that both United States and Australia then pulled out of. The Kyoto Protocol finally became law without those two countries. In 2005. Negotiations then began to replace it, which led to the so-called Bali Roadmap to Copenhagen. And Copenhagen failed. And here we are 13 years later, having reverted to the Japanese concept of “pledge and review,” which is all we’re going to do. And those small island states are completely fucked.

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Feb 13, 2015 – We refuse to divest ourselves of illusions

On this day, in 2015, global divestment hit the headlines (see press release here). Divestment was one of those flavour of the month style campaigns where you try to leverage one part of a broader system to cause bigger change, in this case, trying to get institutional investors to take their money out of fossil fuel stocks, and it feels good. It feels like you’re putting a face on where the money goes, to quote. Marge Piercy’s Vida “Keep naming the enemy: put faces on where the money goes.” 

Why this matters

But like any tactical demand, it after a while it gets stale, it gets predictable, it gets less attention in the media. And that means fewer people turn up next time, which means the media is even less interested. And you go into a death spiral. And then along comes a new tactic. And so it goes. And that is why I’m talking today about divestment. (Again, I’m not shitting on the people who poured their heart and soul into it. I just think we need to understand that it’s a tactic, and it has a shelf-life.) 

What happened next? 

People don’t talk about divestment so much anymore. For a while everyone started trying to get local authorities and governments to declare climate emergencies. Now that’s dying down. We’re waiting for the next big thing. The end of the day. We need this historical and sociological perspective. But we mustn’t let those perspectives demoralise us and give us an excuse for doing nothing.

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Uncategorized Weekly updates

The Week Ahead 24th Jan to 30th Jan (Week #04 update)

Welcome to week 03 of “All Our Yesterdays – 365 climate histories.”

This was the week that we hit triple figures on Twitter (thanks to followers – goal remains 2k by the end of the year).

It is ALSO the week that Chloe and I chose the February blog posts (via a yet-to-be-perfected online system) AND that I narrated the rough drafts of the entire month of February on a couple of walks/yomps.

So, progress.

And it is also the week I read an impressive book by Alice Bell – “Our Greatest Experiment” AND learnt some new “digital humanities” tricks (around turning things into searchable pdfs).

What you may have missed in the last week on the site

Stuff about corporate lobbying, not showing leadership, gambling and losing… the usual..

What I’ve been reading/watching/listening to

Brilliant piece by James Meek from the London Review of Books (July 2021) abt the political economy of those wonderful offshore wind turbines (who builds them, where, under what conditions?)

What’s coming up in the next week on the site

Antarctica breaking up, a brilliant guest post by Hugh Warwick, and a “no regrets”

What’s coming up in the next week in the real world

26 2pm EAC on “net zero aviation and shipping”

27 Jan  You and the planet: Tomorrow’s Earth | Royal Society