Categories
Science United States of America

August 15, 1977 – “Theoretical climate effects of doubling the atmospheric carbon dioxide content”

Forty-eight years ago, on this day, August 15th, 1977,

Theoretical climate effects of doubling the atmospheric carbon dioxide content.

 Presented at the Third Ecology-Meteorology Workshop, University of Michigan Biological Station, 15-18 August 1977

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 333ppm. As of 2025, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.

The broader context was that by the mid-1970s scientists studying the issue were getting more and more concerned. In 1975 the first “global warming” paper appeared – vale Wally Broecker) and the National Academies of Science started paying attention to “Energy and Climate”. President Carter had kicked off the “Global 2000” report too. Word was getting round…

The specific context was that American science wasn’t at that time under full assault by a bunch of crooks, thugs and wilfully ignorant theocratic racists. So, the good old days.

Also, in 1975 this paper had come out – The Effects of Doubling the CO2 Concentration on the climate of a General Circulation Model in: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences Volume 32 Issue 1 (1975)

What I think we can learn from this – People knew. Not everyone, but more than you’d think.

What happened next – in 1979 the First World Climate Conference happened in Geneva, Switzerland, organised by the World Meteorological Organisation. It could have been pivotal, but wasn’t. The thick end of another decade was wasted.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

August 15, 1952 – flash flood – caused by Weather Modification experiment? – All Our Yesterdays

August 15, 1989 – Queenslander mayor says the greenhouse effect is like“a bird urinating in the Tweed River while in flight”

August 15, 2010 – Russia halts grain exports because of droughts and heatwaves

August 15, 2010 – a walk against warming fails to catch fire. #RepertoireRot

Categories
United States of America

August 13, 2004 – “Stabilisation wedges”

Twenty one years ago today, Science publishes the “Stabilisation Wedges” paper…

*Steven Pacala and Robert Socolow, “Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies,” Science 305, no. 5686 (August 13, 2004): 968-972,

“Humanity already possesses the fundamental scientific, technical, and industrial know-how to solve the carbon and climate problem for the next half-century. A portfolio of technologies now exists to meet the world’s energy needs over the next 50 years and limit atmospheric CO2 to a trajectory that avoids a doubling of the preindustrial concentration. Every element in this portfolio has passed beyond the laboratory bench and demonstration project; many are already implemented somewhere at full industrial scale. Although no element is a credible candidate for doing the entire job (or even half the job) by itself, the portfolio as a whole is large enough that not every element has to be used.”

Ha ha, we are so fubarred.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 377ppm. As of 2025, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.

The broader context was that the discussions of “what to do” had been going on for a long long time.  

The specific context was – the Bush administration had pulled out of Kyoto Protocol negotiations. Those wanting to “do something” were turning to technology. 

What I think we can learn from this – the numbers around mitigation were daunting then. Now they’re laughable.

What happened next. Stabilisation wedges were flavour of the month for a while. Now? Haven’t heard them referenced for ages. It’s apparently all about the speed of wind and solar roll-out.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

August 13, 1882 – William “Coal Question” Jevons dies

August 13, 1991 – clouds and silver linings 

August 13, 2007 – Newsweek nails denialists

Categories
Carbon Capture and Storage United States of America

August 8, 2006 – MIT Review on “Storing Carbon Dioxide under the Ocean”

Nineteen years ago, on this day, August 8th, 2006. MIT Review has a story on, well, “Storing Carbon Dioxide under the Ocean” calling it a “A safe, high-capacity method could make carbon sequestration more practical.” 

God forbid breathless technophilia ever infect people’s cognitive faculties…

One way to combat global climate change is to directly capture carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, as it is being emitted, and store it safely. But methods of carbon dioxide sequestration, notably, pumping the gas into underground geologic structures such as exhausted oil reservoirs, are not practical in many areas, and raise fears that the stored carbon dioxide will escape.

A better way to store carbon dioxide: Pump it into the sea floor in liquid form. There,high pressure and cold temperatures make it more dense than water in the surrounding rock, preventing it from rising to the surface. (Source: Daniel Schrag. Artist: Jared T. Williams)

Now researchers at Harvard University and Columbia University have proposed a new method for trapping nearly limitless amounts of carbon dioxide – a technique they say will be secure, as well as a practical option for areas located far from underground reservoirs.

The researchers, in an article posted online this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, propose that carbon dioxide be pumped into the porous sediment a few hundred meters into the sea floor in deep parts of the ocean (greater than 3,000 meters deep), in what one of the researchers, Dan Schrag, professor of geochemistry at Harvard, calls “a fairly simple, permanent solution.”

The key was finding a “sweet spot,” where the pressure and temperature of the surrounding environment make carbon dioxide more dense than surrounding fluids, thereby trapping it in place. This situation occurs at the bottom of the ocean because of a combination of high pressure and low temperatures – a fact others have also noted in proposals to store carbon dioxide in deep parts of the ocean.

Storing Carbon Dioxide under the Ocean | MIT Technology Review

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 382ppm. As of 2025, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.

The broader context was that from the mid-1970s various scientists had been saying “well, look if carbon dioxide build-up is actually a problem, we will just bury it in/under the oceans. Simples.”

The specific context was that the carbon dioxide build-up issue was back on the agenda because the Kyoto Protocol had come into effect – despite US and Australian intransigence – in February 2005. This meant that there would be a successor deal, and the rich countries wanted to be able to say “tech will fix it” to dodge calls for emissions cuts by rich people.

What I think we can learn from this is that we believe what is convenient to believe, and disregard the rest (yes, that’s a Simon and Garfunkel hollaback).

What happened next – the CCS bandwagon lost a wheel in 2011 or so. This has since been duct-taped back on, at considerable expense to the taxpayer.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

August 8, 1975 – first academic paper to use term “global warming” published

August 8, 1990 – Ministers meet, argue for Toronto Target

August 8, 1990 – ANZEC says “adopt Toronto target” of sharp carbon cuts. – All Our Yesterdays

Categories
United States of America

August 7, 1933 – Elinor Ostrom born

Ninety-two years ago, on this day, August 7th, 1933 Elinor Olstrom was born.

Elinor ClaireLinOstrom (née Awan; August 7, 1933 – June 12, 2012) was an American political scientist and political economist[1][2][3] whose work was associated with New Institutional Economics and the resurgence of political economy.[4] In 2009, she was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for her “analysis of economic governance, especially the commons“, which she shared with Oliver E. Williamson; she was the first woman to win the prize.[5]

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 308ppm. As of 2025, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.

What I think we can learn from Ostrom. Governance of common goods (it IS possible, it has been done). Garrett “Tragedy of the Commons” Hardin was not merely extremely racist but extremely racist and wrong.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

August 7, 1979 – Cabinet Office wonk hopes to pacify greenies

August 7, 1995 – decent Australian journo reports on utter bullshit #climate economic “modelling”

August 7, 2003 – John Howard meets with business buddies to kill climate action

Categories
United States of America

August 6, 2009 – Governor Paterson versus the Greenhouse Effect

Sixteen years ago, on this day, August 6th, 2009, 

New York Governor Paterson Sets Greenhouse Gas Targets, Planning Requirements

Executive Order Sets Goal of Reducing Emissions 80 Percent by 2050 and Requires Comprehensive Climate Action Plan

On August 6th, Governor David A. Paterson signed Executive Order No. 24 setting a goal to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. This target is consistent with President Obama’s GHG reduction goals and the targets established in the Waxman-Markey bill passed by the U.S. House of Representatives on June 29, 2009, as well as bills currently being debated in the U.S. Senate. It is also consistent with long-term recommendations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 387ppm. As of 2025, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.

The broader context was that governors had been pushing climate action during the “Dubya” Bush administrations, when the Federal government was doing less than nothing. And there were executive announcements and so forth stretching back to the late 1980s – see this one from New Jersey’s governor in 1989.

The specific context was that the Copenhagen “last chance to save the earth” conference was coming up in December.

What I think we can learn from this is that talk is cheap.

What happened next. I don’t know if New York a) produced a plan and then b) did anything to make it happen. I have my doubts about it…

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

References

Salkin, P. E. (2014). The Executive and the Environment: A Look at the Last Five Governors in New York. Pace Envtl. L. Rev., 31, 705.

Also on this day: 

August 6, 1945 – Hiroshima

August 6, 1990 – another climate documentary shown…

August 6, 1992 – Australian environmentalists and businesses united… in disgust at Federal bureaucrats #auspol #climate

Categories
United States of America

August 4, 1980 – “Towards a Troubled 21st Century” reports Time Magazine

Forty five years ago, on this day, August 4th, 1980, Time Magazine was reporting on the “Global 2000” report put out by the Carter Administration.

As compared with such doomsday forecasts as that of the Club of Rome’s 1972 The Limits to Growth, which predicted mass starvation, political chaos, and general catastrophe by the middle of the next century, the study is cautiously restrained, even muted, giving its warnings more impact in a way…. 

Less predictable, but no less frightening: a possible global heating from the growing volume of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere—expected to rise a third over preindustrial levels by century’s end from continued burning of fossil fuels.

“Toward a Troubled 21st Century: A Presidential Panel Finds the Global Outlook Extremely Bleak,” Time Magazine (4 August 1980): p. 54

Environment: Toward a Troubled 21st Century | TIME

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 339ppm. As of 2025, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.

The broader context was that the warnings had been coming for a long time. Time had covered it in 1953, after all.

The specific context was that the Global 2000 report, begun shortly after Jimmy Carter became President, was a pretty good stab at the problems ahead. Of course it was met with a fierce and stupid backlash by fierce and stupid people at the Heritage Foundation etc.

What I think we can learn from this – any effort to raise the alarm will be met with the cry of “alarmist”, no matter how credentialled, sober and cautious you are.

What happened next – in September 1980 it was obvious that Ronald Reagan, republican candidate for the presidency, wasn’t even AWARE of the Global 2000 report. And the rest? It’s history and emissions, until the latter mean there’s none of the former. Oh well.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

August 4, 1988 – Hawke Cabinet asks for “what can we do?” report on climate.

August 4, 2004 – Australian farmers nervous about climate change. Ignored – All Our Yesterdays

August 4, 2008 – Police pepper spray #climate campers

Categories
United States of America

 August 3, 2019 – another eco-fascist massacre

Six years ago, on this day, August 3rd 2019, another of the eco-fascist massacres that I fear we will see more of…

Crusius bought a semiautomatic rifle online and 1,000 rounds of hollow-point 39 mm shells. On Aug. 3, 2019, he got into his gray Honda Civic and drove nearly 10 hours toward El Paso, Texas. Entering the city, he turned into the Cielo Vista Walmart Supercenter parking lot. By some accounts, he wanted a snack, but after briefly going into the store filled with Hispanic shoppers, he returned to his car, posted a vitriolic 2,400-word manifesto to the extremist social media site 8chan and got the gun. He shot 45 people, ultimately killing 23, eight of them Mexican citizens. “This attack is a response to the Hispanic invasion of Texas,” Crusius wrote. “I am simply defending my country from cultural and ethnic replacement brought on by an invasion.”

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 411ppm. As of 2025, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.

The broader context was that settler colonialism requires racism – hatred, fear, supremacism. If you’re going to push people off land, you have to stop seeing them as people. This is not rocket science.

The specific context was that the climate issue had been deliberately polarised/politicised in the late 1980s and early 1990s, by “conservatives” seeking to maintain the status quo (which is, after all, what conservatives do). Alongside this, well, the Great Chain of Being/White Replacement Theory and So. Many. Guns.

What I think we can learn from this is that this is going to happen a lot more.

What happened next

From wikipedia 

In 2023, Crusius pleaded guilty to 90 federal murder and hate crime charges,[21][22] and he was sentenced to 90 consecutive life sentences.[23]

In March 2025, El Paso County District Attorney James Montoya offered a plea deal on state charges, allowing Crusius to avoid the death penalty by pleading guilty in exchange for a life sentence without parole or appeal. This decision followed consultations with victims’ families, many of whom preferred a swift resolution.[24] Crusius pleaded guilty to the state charges on April 21, 2025, and was sentenced to life in prison without parole.[25]

Victims:

  • Andre Anchondo, 23
  • Jordan Anchondo, 24
  • Arturo Benavides, 60
  • Leonardo Campos, 41
  • Angie Englisbee, 86
  • Maria Flores, 77
  • Raul Flores, 83
  • Guillermo “Memo” Garcia, 36[a]
  • Jorge Calvillo García, 61
  • Adolfo Cerros Hernández, 68
  • Alexander Gerhard Hoffman, 66
  • David Johnson, 63
  • Luis Alfonzo Juarez, 90
  • Maria Eugenia Legarreta Rothe, 58
  • Maribel (Campos) Loya, 56
  • Ivan Filiberto Manzano, 46
  • Elsa Mendoza Marquez, 57
  • Gloria Irma Márquez, 61
  • Margie Reckard, 63
  • Sara Esther Regalado Moriel, 66
  • Javier Rodriguez, 15
  • Teresa Sanchez, 82
  • Juan Velazquez, 77
  •  Garcia initially survived the shooting, but died on
    April 26, 2020, as a result of his injuries.[42]

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

August 3, 1958 – under the pole goes the Nautilus – All Our Yesterdays

August 3, 1970 – Nixon warned about climate change and icecaps melting

August 3, 1988 – Exxon tries to downplay “the greenhouse effect.” Again.

Categories
United States of America

August 2, 1972, Paul Goodman dies

Fifty three years ago, on this day, August 2, 1972, Paul Goodman died.

Paul Goodman (September 9, 1911 – August 2, 1972) was an American writer and public intellectual best known for his 1960s works of social criticism. Goodman was prolific across numerous literary genres and non-fiction topics, including the arts, civil rights, decentralization, democracy, education, media, politics, psychology, technology, urban planning, and war. As a humanist and self-styled man of letters, his works often addressed a common theme of the individual citizen’s duties in the larger society, and the responsibility to exercise autonomy, act creatively, and realize one’s own human nature.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 327ppm. As of 2025, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.

The broader context was the “New Left” owed a debt – sometimes acknowledged, sometimes not – to brave smart men and women who kept the flame alive during the 1950s. Goodman was a very big deal for many young Americans who worried about the consequences of modernity (conformity, ugliness, war etc).

What I think we can learn from this – prophets in their own land/time etc etc.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

 August 2, 1970 – LA Times runs #climate change front page story

August 2, 1991- Pledge and Review… – All Our Yesterdays

August 2, 1992 – Canberra Times reporting that Jastrow idiot #RelevanceDeprivationSyndrome – All Our Yesterdays

August 2, 1994 – Australian Prime Minister Paul Keating says greenies should ignore “amorphous issue of greenhouse”

August 2, 2007 – Russia plants a flag on the Arctic sea-bed.

Categories
United States of America

August 1, 1964 – Popular Mechanics says the air around us is changing

Sixty one years ago, on this day, August 1, 1964, the magazine Popular Mechanics ran a story “The air around us: how it is changing” including mention of CO2 build-up – “when you burn anything such as fuel for heat or power you also take oxygen from the atmosphere and give back carbon dioxide.”

https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=ROMDAAAAMBAJ&lpg=PA4&dq=The+Air+Around+Us:+How+It+Is+Changing&pg=PA81&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 319ppm. As of 2025, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.

The broader context was that the 1950s had seen an explosion in scientific measurement of, well, everything (see also “The Great Acceleration”). Popular Mechanics had, 11 years earlier, briefly covered Gilbert Plass’s 1953 statements. The International Geophysical Year (1957-8) had enabled accurate measurements of carbon dioxide to be taken in various locations – most famously in Hawaii.

The specific context was “smog” in American cities was becoming a real problem, and journalists looking for newer/broader angles were also beginning to think globally. The journalist here is also drawing upon the report from the Conservation Foundation, of early 1963…

What I think we can learn from this is that anyone tolerably well-educated knew there might be trouble ahead. True, they probably also assumed we would nuke ourselves before then…

What happened next – the following February (1965) President Lyndon Johnson’s special message to Congress about pollution/natural beauty included a glancing reference to carbon dioxide levels… It would be the mid 1980s before serious policymaker concern began.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day

August 1, 1980 – Wall Street Journal does excellent #climate reporting

August 1, 2015 – World Coal Association tries to say coal is lifting people out of poverty.

August 1, 2016 – Anti-wind idiots step on their own rake – All Our Yesterdays

Categories
United States of America

August 1, 1976 – Oak Ridge report on “The Global Carbon Dioxide Problem” released

Forty nine years ago, on this day, August 1, 1976, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory released a report titled “The Global Carbon Dioxide Problem.” The abstract is just a page – this leaps out

”estimates of the consequent warming … range from possibly acceptable to catastrophic.”

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 332ppm. As of 2025, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.

The broader context was that through the 1970s more and more scientists were looking at carbon dioxide levels and saying to themselves “yikes”…

The specific context was that the response to the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo had been the US announcing “Project Independence” – lots more coal and nuclear….

What I think we can learn from this is that we knew plenty, half a century ago. And here we are.

What happened next was that there was a push for the issue to be taken seriously. If Carter had got a second term, maybe. But that all ended with Desert One…

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

References

Xxx

Also on this day: 

August 1, 1980 – Wall Street Journal does excellent #climate reporting

August 1, 2015 – World Coal Association tries to say coal is lifting people out of poverty.

August 1, 2016 – Anti-wind idiots step on their own rake – All Our Yesterdays