Twenty years ago, on this day, February 24, 2003, the UK Blair Government released a very consequential white paper.
On 24 February 2003 the Government published its Energy White Paper “Our energy future – creating a low carbon economy”. The White Paper set out a new energy policy, designed to deal with the three major challenges that confront the UK’s energy system: the challenge of climate change, the challenge of declining indigenous energy supplies, and the need to keep the UK’s energy infrastructure up to date with changing technologies and needs.
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 375.8ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures.
The context was
The Blair government was realising that carbon emissions reductions were easy to promise, not quite so easy to deliver. A 2000 report by the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution had proposed a target of 60% reduction by 2050, and this was adopted in the Energy White Paper. Crucially, the White Paper saw no role for nuclear….
What I think we can learn from this
Getting new ideas into government is an achievement.
Keeping them there is really hard, and the work of generations. And movements.
What happened next
The Nuclear lobby fought back (of course) and by 2005 had converted Tony Blair. Then more fun and hilarity ensued, but no actual building of new nuclear power stations, which always run over budget and behind schedule.
What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Do comment on this post.
Forty six years ago, on this day, February 23, 1977, as per the wonderful article by Jon Agar, the UK’s Chief Scientific Advisor wrote a prescient memo about carbon dioxide build up…
However, ‘one complicating factor, which will have to be taken seriously’ was carbon dioxide: …” as a result of the increasing use of fossil fuels the atmospheric carbondioxide [sic] content has increased by 10 per cent over the last century. Increased atmospheric carbondioxide leads, via the ‘greenhouse’ effect to an increase in temperature. However, carbondioxide production is usually associated with the production of dust (especially from coal) and particulate material in the atmosphere scatters light and thus leads to a decrease in temperature. It is possible that these two effects cancel, to a first approximation, but it is something that gives rise to a lot of debate; especially among those who wish to build nuclear power stations. Carbondioxide is, of course, soluble but it will take about 1,000 years for equilibrium to be reached between the atmosphere and the ocean; if the dust settles out faster than the carbondioxide dissolves there might be some interesting short-term effects”.
Rounding off a review of climate change, Ashworth gave a prediction:
‘Future forecast—changeable and probably getting worse’. The note is significant because it is the first, recorded instance of the UK’s senior government adviser passing up the chain of command a firm view about climate change, in this case that natural climatic change was an understood fact and anthropogenic climate change a distinct possibility’ TNA CAB 184/567. ‘The weather’, Ashworth to Berrill, 23 February 1977
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 333.1ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures.
The context was
The Germans, Swedes and most of all Americans were looking at carbon dioxide build-up and saying “we may have a serious problem”. So was the World Meteorological Organisation. The idea of an ice age had been put to one side after a Norwich meeting in 1975. Ashworth was trying to get Berrill and Mason to take it seriously.
What I think we can learn from this
Getting dinosaurs to tap dance, to spot problems on the horizon, is hard going.
What happened next
Ashworth’s efforts were ‘rewarded’, at last, with an interdepartmental committee in late 1978, which produced a “nothing to see here” report. Members of Thatcher’s government tried to keep it from seeing the light of day, but it finally limped out in February 1980. When Ashworth briefed Thatcher, her response was incredulity and “you want me to worry about the weather?”
Meanwhile, the opportunity to start doing something was, of course, lost.
What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Do comment on this post.
References
Agar, J. (2015). “Future forecast – changeable and probably getting worse”: the UK Government’s Early Response to Anthropogenic Climate Change” Twentieth Century British History, Volume 26, Issue 4, Pages 602–628, https://doi.org/10.1093/tcbh/hwv008 See here.
This is a guest post by Sakshi Aravind (full bio at end of post).
Dr Sakshi Aravind
Where should we look if we must begin to believe adjudication is one of the ways to achieve climate justice? Investing hope in courts may appear unrealistic if, for instance, one were to look at UK courts. This February, the Inner Crown Court sentenced an activist with Insulate Britain to prison for contempt of court.
From what has appeared in the press, the presiding judge had asked the defendant not to refer to climate change as motivation for their actions (where the defendant, along with three others, had blocked a busy junction in the City of London on the 25th October 2021 as a part of Insulate Britain climate campaign). The defendant appears to have referred to climate change in his closing speech, thereby earning the absurd wrath of the Court.
Now, on the face of it, the outcome appears preposterous. This was, after all, a case where people were being prosecuted for protesting on climate change grounds. Surely, they can argue on an accurately reasoned ground that explains why they were blockading the junction in the first place? Was this an instance of misreporting, or did the judge relinquish the need for reasoning, let alone legal reasoning? I can only find out if someone is willing to fill in a wordy form to obtain the transcript from the Court and pay the fees, just like the Digital Support Officer from the registry tells me I should do.
One can imagine why the question of courts, justice and accessibility remain narrowly interpreted and do not extend to interrogating the aftermaths of litigation, including holding the judges accountable in a way that makes more than legal sense.
Should I bother with this little absurdity when the higher courts in the UK have consistently thrown out most of the climate-related strategic litigation in the last few years, even as most other jurisdictions are turning to innovation and curiosity?
On 16th February, it appeared that the Wolverhampton Magistrate Court assumed a different approach to the Just Stop Oil protestors, who were before the Court for blocking the distribution of oil from the Esso Fuel Terminal in Birmingham in April 2022. While the defendants were given a conditional discharge and ordered to pay costs, the presiding judge was also sympathetic towards their motivation. The judge was alert to the realities of climate change and termed the defendants’ actions one with an “admirable aim”. However, the Court believed that the necessities of consistency and legitimacy—those that characterise the rule of law in the UK—had to be upheld and the defendants convicted. To quote from the sentencing remark:
“Trust in the rule of law is an essential ingredient of society, and it will erode swiftly if judges make politically or morally motivated decisions that do not accord with established legal principles. Indeed I would become the self-appointed sheriff if I acted in such a way.
…
if good people with the right motivation do the wrong thing it can never make that wrong thing right, it can only ever act as substantial mitigation.”
We only have access to this sentencing remark because the Judicial Office contacted the media to clarify after Just Stop Oil went on a gloating spree misquoting the judge. Not unusual for predominantly white activist groups in the UK to do something cringe-worthy now and then.
Why do the first and the second instance feel equally absurd? Should one look for hope in environmental movements in the wrong place and lie to themselves and others until the very thing they are hoping for materialises miraculously? Is strategic litigation successful only when a judge pats you on the head and provides a cinematic twist in adjudication?
Whatever the answer to these questions, investing hope in courts must be clear about two things.
First, adjudication is a refined strategy, which may or may not always provide the best possible outcome. But when it does, it is going to be significant and lasting.
Second, where the legal cultures are restrained, one must have realistic expectations about the kinds of environmental litigation that goes to courts.
While self-proclaimed environmental activists are prosecuted, not all cases can be considered environmental litigation, despite how damning such cases may turn out for the domestic criminal justice system. So, there is no need to be disingenuous about the judicial outcome. If we desire indulgence from legal systems and teary-eyed judges, we distract ourselves from the real problem—that of an impenetrable legal system and absurd procedural apparatus that can sweep you away from the system for the most inconsequential of faults.
If we use adjudication for our ends, we must focus on the content and strategy and less on the actors. Unlike the BIPOC fighting for environmental rights elsewhere against murderous regimes that do it lucidly, those in privileged spaces might require some practice. But it is entirely worth the effort.
While hope and optimism are a matter of individual and collective responsibility to some extent, when there comes the point where we must say “F*** hope!” like Australian academic Chelsea Watego tells us, we must understand and wholeheartedly endorse that moment.
Bio:
Sakshi is a Lecturer in Law and Social Justice at the Newcastle Law School, where she teaches environmental law, land law, constitutional law and jurisprudence. She completed her PhD at the University of Cambridge and her BCL at the University of Oxford. She works on comparative environmental law, legal theory, political economy, and climate justice.
You can read her previous guest post on All Our Yesterdays (on environmental racism in NGOs) here, and an interview “Indigenous resistance to extractivism and academic allyship” FULL of insights and also links to post-colonial and indigenous thinkers here, on the Environmental Politics website.
Ten years ago, on this day, February 22, 2013, some miners went ape, setting up a ludicrous front organisation. Brain-damage indeed.
A Goldfields lobby group is planning to launch an eleventh hour campaign against what it calls “green extremists”.
The group DAMAGE, Dads And Mums Against Green Extremists, is planning advertisements in a Kalgoorlie newspaper in the last week of the state election campaign
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 397ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures.
The context was
Western Australia is heavily dependent – in every sense – on mining. Anything that gets between the miners and their cash is regarded as something to be ignored, then smeared and repressed, by any means necessary.
What I think we can learn from this
Sometimes the goon squad tries to develop a sense of humour, as it did with this retronym. It’s usually not very funny though, more pitiable and embarrassing.
And smearing people who think a habitable planet in years to come is a nice idea as “extremists” is, well, an old ploy.
But, you know, sometimes it goes all step on a rake/Streisand effect.
But the Greens? The Greens were glad of the attempted “damage” to their brand. As one their MPs Robin Chapple said after the election
“I thank Tim Hall, the Greens candidate for the seat of Kalgoorlie. In Kalgoorlie, I also thank an organisation called Dads And Mums Against Green Extremists. DAMAGE was set up specifically to target the Greens, but in fact it helped to retain our vote by focusing on the Greens and identifying some of the issues it stands for. Many years ago former federal member of Parliament Michael Beahan told me that if your opposition is invisible, the worst thing you can do is identify them. Until the establishment of DAMAGE, the Greens to a large degree had been invisible in the Kalgoorlie media. But in the last two to three weeks of the election, the Greens were front and centre in the media and retained its vote. Michael Beahan’s point was that if somebody is not grabbing the attention, do not highlight them, but DAMAGE did exactly that.”
Forty five years ago, on this day, February 21 1978, a workshop took place at the Cold War lek known as IIASA, in Austria.
Carbon dioxide, climate and society – Proceedings of a IIASA workshop co-sponsored by WMO, UNEP and SCOPE, (Laxenburg, Austria) 21-24 Feb 1978.
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 335.2ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures.
The context was
In the US the 1977 NAS report had come out. UNEP were hosting meetings with the WMO Preparations were underway for the First World Climate Conference, to be held in February 1979. IIASA had been looking at Energy and Climate for a while, including with previous workshops in 1975 and this one in 1976 about Climate and Solar Energy. Some of the big names – Flohn, Nordhaus etc, were around.
What I think we can learn from this
Smart people were “on it” quite early (i.e. 20 years after Plass, Revelle, Bolin, Keeling et al had seen what the problem was). They scratched their heads and couldn’t see easy ways forward Because there weren’t any. There certainly aren’t any now.
What happened next
This meeting and others fed into the late 1970s awareness of the problem (among a tiny number of people!)
IIASA kept having consequential meetings on climate (see their stuff on CCS in the early 2000s)
What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Do comment on this post.
References
Schrickel, I. (2017) Control versus complexity: approaches to the carbon dioxide problem at IIASAWynne, B. (1984) The Institutional Context of Science, Models, and Policy: The IIASA Energy Study. Policy Sciences
Fifty seven years ago, on this day, February 20, 1966, another US senate hearing got an allusion to trouble ahead, from a particle physicist called Leland Haworth.
“Another thing that is in a strict sense a pollutant but not usually thought of as such is the carbon dioxide that comes from all our burning of fossil fuels — coal, oil, gas, and so forth — which is adding to the carbon dioxide content of the air. It is not a pollutant in the sense of doing any harm to us directly, but it could change the temperature balance of the world.”
— Leland Haworth, hearing on weather modification
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 321.6ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures.
The context was
The President’s address to Congress in February 1965 had mentioned build-up of C02, and a report that came out in November did likewise. The National Science Foundation was doing further work on this, which Haworth would have been well aware of. There had been a report, released in late 1965 on the topic, which had looked at David Keeling’s measurements (as per Gordon MacDonald to Oppenheimer and Boyle, 1990).
What I think we can learn from this
A problem can be on the sidelines for a long time, and may even disappear into nothing. For a problem to become an issue will be, usually, the end result of a lot of hard work, and a few capitalised-upon disasters…. It took a while for “climate change” to break through (30 years, when it probably only needed 20 – there is a plausible alternative history narrative where by the late 1970s, the issue gets dealt with (though probably would have required the late-Brezhnev era Soviet Union to innovate, so, maybe not so plausible?!).
What happened next
By the late 1960s, more work was being done, more talk about it, including in the context of the Americans wanting a non-napalming-babies issue to talk about internationally (see Moynihan September 1969 memo). The American Association for the Advancement of Science was getting in on the act too, and by 1970, most people talking about air pollution would at least mention in passing the (potential) climate problem.
What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Do comment on this post.
Twenty years ago, on this day, February 19 2003, carbon capture and storage got another nudge forward, at least in terms of rhetoric…
19 to 21 Feb 2003 As discussed earlier, the 2002 Geneva meeting produced a plan for an exploratory workshop on the issue, which took place in November 2002 in Regina, Canada. The actual process of report preparation began after the formal decision to compile the report, made at the IPCC meeting in February 2003 in Paris.
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 375.8ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures.
The context was
In the aftermath of the President George “The Supreme Court got me the gig” Bush having pulled the USA out of the Kyoto Protocol negotiations, attention turned to various techno-fixes, including Carbon Capture and Storage, which had been in the background/on the drawing board for a decade plus.
Longer term context – some had clearly been eyeing the deep oceans as places to dump waste, and this had gotten the ‘right’ scientists curious…
“Second, ocean mixing. Here too Revelle had a long-established curiosity, and here too nuclear energy pushed the topic forward. The wastes from nuclear reactors must be disposed of somewhere, and the ocean floor seemed a likely choice. In 1955 when Revelle spoke of studying ocean circulation he emphasized the need to bury the “unbelievable quantities of radioactive substances” expected to pour from civilian reactors…”
Weart 1997 342
What I think we can learn from this
Dreams of technological salvation are very popular, but always need someone to write them. And the money to pay those people to write those fantasies has to come from somewhere…
What happened next
The IPCC’s special report on CCS came out in early 2005, and was a very big deal – an example of the halo effect of the credibility of impact science being lent to production science. But the CCS plants have still not yet been built, and the ones that did were all about Enhanced Oil “Recovery”.
What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Do comment on this post.
Twelve years ago, on this day, February 18, 2011 Australia’s chief scientific advisor Penny Sackett downed tools. She said in her statement – “”Institutions, as well as individuals, grow and evolve, and for both personal and professional reasons the time is now right for me to seek other ways to contribute.” (source)
This move was regarded at the time – rightly or wrongly – as a rebuke/frustration with the lack of ambition on climate policy.
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 392ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures.
The context was
Prime Minister Julia Gillard was in the middle of a shitstorm over climate policy that continued for months (Feb to August 2011).
What I think we can learn from this
Offering scientific advice to politicians is at best a very tough gig. At worst, you’re a fig leaf/complicit.
What happened next
Following chief scientific advisors were more willing to sing the praises of fantasy technologies and keep their heads down. Whether or not current and future generations are well-served by that is, well….
What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Do comment on this post.
Ten years ago, on this day, February 17, 2013 , a protest march and arrests took place in Washington DC
Following Nebraska’s approval of the route for Phase IV of the Keystone XL Pipeline in January, about 50,000 people gathered at the Washington Monument and marched to the White House. Demonstrators demanded President Obama block the Keystone XL Pipeline and take action against climate change. Four-dozen protestors, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Darryl Hannah, James Hansen, Sierra Club Founder Adam Werbach, and environmental activist Bill McKibben, were arrested at the gates of the White House for civil disobedience.
“In 2015 KXL was temporarily delayed by PresidentBarack Obama. On January 24, 2017, President Donald Trump took action intended to permit the pipeline’s completion. On January 20, 2021, President Joe Biden signed an executive order to revoke the permitthat was granted to TC Energy Corporation for the Keystone XL Pipeline (Phase 4). On June 9, 2021, TC Energy abandoned plans for the Keystone XL Pipeline.”
What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Do comment on this post.
References and see also
Bradshaw, E.A. Blockadia Rising: Rowdy Greens, Direct Action and the Keystone XL Pipeline. Critical Criminology 23, 433–448 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10612-015-9289-0
Thirty years ago, on this day, February 17, 1993 , new President Bill Clinton gave his state of the union address and said an energy tax was in the cards…
“Our plan does include a broad-based tax on energy, and I want to tell you why I selected this and why I think it’s a good idea. I recommend that we adopt a Btu tax on the heat content of energy as the best way to provide us with revenue to lower the deficit because it also combats pollution, promotes energy efficiency, promotes the independence, economically, of this country as well as helping to reduce the debt, and because it does not discriminate against any area. Unlike a carbon tax, that’s not too hard on the coal States; unlike a gas tax, that’s not too tough on people who drive a long way to work; unlike an ad valorem tax, it doesn’t increase just when the price of an energy source goes up. And it is environmentally responsible. It will help us in the future as well as in the present with the deficit.”
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 357.4ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures.
The context was
Vice President Al Gore had been switched onto the climate problem while studying at Harvard (Roger Revelle had taught him). He had had a book called “Earth in the Balance” come out while he was on the campaign trail. He thought you could raise money to reduce the government deficit while also cutting emissions….
What I think we can learn from this
War game the heck out of your proposal, with red team and blue team and all that…
What happened next
Resistance from the “energy lobby” (who knew?!) Brutally successful opposition too.