Tag: 1988

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United Kingdom

November 20, 1988 – Will Thatcher pick up the Green Gauntlet? (spoiler: no, no she won’t)

Thirty six years ago, on this day, November 20th, 1988,

“To ask the Prime Minister what response she plans to make to the 30 point plan for environmental improvement in the United Kingdom set out in “The Green Gauntlet” document launched collectively by the Worldwide Fund for Nature, Friends of the Earth and Greenpeace on 20 November.” [1988]

“The Green Gauntlet” – Hansard – UK Parliament

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 351ppm. As of 2024 it is 423ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that the green groups in the UK had collaborated! This was not entirely unusual, but the breadth and depth of this collaboration was beyond average. They’d produce a wish list they called the Green Gauntlet that they threw down in front of Margaret Thatcher who had after all, just made a big noise at the Royal Society about the biggest experiment that we were conducting. And so it was a question of “was that all hot air, or would she actually do something about the green gauntlet?” I think we all know the answer.

What we learn: If you’re a politician at a national level at least, and you make big bold pronouncements, don’t be surprised if various green groups try to hold you to your word. And so it came to pass.

What happened next, Thatcher kept on giving nice speeches. She held a Cabinet meeting in April of ‘89, all about CO2. Her government shat on the idea of the Toronto Target. She made another nice empty speech at the United Nations General Assembly in November ‘89. And a year later, she was gone. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

November 20, 1930 – the Fox is born!! 

November 20, 1973 – “Is the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Disintegrating?”

November 20, 1974 – BBC airs “The Weather Machine”

November 20, 2008 – Green capitalism flexes a (weak) BICEP

Categories
United States of America

September 7, 1988 – media looking for more alarmist scientists…

Thirty six years ago, on this day, September 7th, 1988,

On September 7, 1988, with the Summer of ’88 still fully in American consciousness, the ABC news programme Nightline broadcast a segment dedicated to the greenhouse effect. I was contacted as a possible guest but was later told my views were “too moderate.” Some of the exchange between “Nightline” moderator Ted Koppel and the environmental activist Michael Oppenheimer, of the Environmental Defense Fund, helps to make this dilemma quite explicit.

Koppell: Dr Oppenheimer, I’d love to be able to say to you that I think the American public can get energised over some perceived threat forty years down the road, but I don’t believe it. Do you?

[Hecht was on it to]

(Schneider, 1989: 235-6)

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 351ppm. As of 2024 it is 420ishppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that the American airwaves were full of greenhouse. Thanks to James Hansen’s June 23 testimony and the severe heatwave summer drought. And we’re getting to that stage in the media cycle where the responsible cautious scientists have had their say. And now in order to keep things “fresh” the bookers for these programmes are needing to jazz it up a bit with more extreme pronouncements. And previously, bookable scientists and advocates like Oppenheimer, for the Environmental Defence Fund are considered passe or too cautious. And then, of course, someone more extreme and perhaps unhinged gets booked. And then it becomes part of the culture war, with the opponents pointing to scare stories and the media can then report that and round and round and round we go. 

What happened next? The climate culture war really kicked off in ‘89 with the George C Marshall Foundation, the Global Climate Coalition [it would be fun to figure out when that was born, when it started making its first pronouncements and interventions.] And this cycle continues down on to this day. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs

Also on this day: 

September 7, 1936 – The Anthropocene does for the Thylacine…

September 7, 1977 – #climate scientist Stephen Schneider on Carson for the last time…

September 7, 2005 – “rule out nuclear” say Aussie green outfits.

Categories
Scientists

August 20, 1988 – Hansen’s model released

Thirty six years ago, on this day, August 20th, 1988,

The most comprehensive greenhouse model to date was prepared by Hansen at the Goddard Institute and published in the August 20, 1988, issue of Journal of Geophysical Research. Hansen’s model predicts an increase of from two to five degrees Fahrenheit in the next thirty years, depending on which of three alternate futures the world’s nations choose: continued expansion of fossil fuel use at the current annual rate of 1.5 percent; a moderate cut-back; or a radical shift away from fossil fuels to alternate sources of energy, such as solar, nuclear, wind, or hydroelectric. https://www.spin.com/2019/09/greenhouse-effect-climate-crisis/

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 351ppm. As of 2024 it is 424ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that everyone was banging on about climate. Now greenhouse, which was not the case when this model had been worked on two months earlier. US climate scientist James Hansen had given his bombshell testimony. This was the first published version of the climate models that he was talking about. 

What we learn is that Hansen has been ahead of the game for a long time and  probably should not be ignored. 

What happened next, Hansen got attacked, the models got attacked. The Global Climate Coalition came along, the George C Marshall Institute pivoted from shilling Reagan’s Star Wars to this crap. And here we are.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

August 20, 1997 – Australian Mining Industry operative misrepresents the #climate science. Obvs.

August 20, 2018 – Greta Thunberg’s first protest

Categories
United States of America

July 15, 1988 – “Racing on Capitol Hill for Title of “Mr Greenhouse”

Thirty six years ago, on this day, July 15th, 1988, the satirical “Grant Swinger” took aim at climate policy in an hilarious article “Racing on Capitol Hill for Title of “Mr Greenhouse” in Science and Government Report. He skewers it, absolutely.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 350ppm. As of 2024 it is 426ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that Daniel Greenberg had been doing the spoof Grant Swinger (get it – someone who can swing grants) satirical columns for quite some time. And let’s look at how big science works. And the scramble and scramble a knife fights for funding for prestige. It’s hilarious. 

The context here was also, of course, that it was that long, hot summer. It was post-Hansen and Toronto but before Bush finally came out and said his thing on the campaign trail. 

What we learn is that good satire is timeless, even if the exact targets are no longer present, because human behaviour doesn’t change (the satyricon and Juvenal, etc.) 

What happened next? Grant Swinger kept swinging for the fences. The climate issue burst onto the scene and has kind of stayed there ever since. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

July 15, 1968 – first(?) UK government attention to the possibility of climate

July 15, 1977 – “Heavy Use of Coal May Bring Adverse Shift in Climate”

July 15, 2005 – The “Stern Review” into #climate is announced…

Categories
United Kingdom

July 6, 1988 – Piper Alpha blows up

Thirty six years ago, on this day, July 6th,1988, an oil drilling platform in the North Sea blows up.

The Piper Alpha drilling platform in the North Sea is destroyed by explosions and fires. One hundred sixty-seven oil workers are killed, making it the world’s worst offshore oil disaster in terms of direct loss of life.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 350ppm. As of 2024 it is 426ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that Piper Alpha had a bad safety reputation. Workers had been complaining and… boom. 

What we learn is that energy extraction is a dangerous business. Whether it’s coal mines, oil platforms, small coal mines are definitely more dangerous. And accidents happen. Normal accidents in the world words of Charles Perrow.

What happened next? There were the usual prolonged battles over blame and compensation. At this point, in Britain, this was the third big infrastructure horror show after the Kings Cross fire and also The Herald of Free Enterprise. It did feel like things were falling apart. And then of course, the following year, Exxon Valdez. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

July 6, 1972 – “Workers and the Environment” conference in London…

 July 6, 1993 – Australian bipartisanship on climate? Not really…

Categories
Iran United States of America

July 3, 1988 – US Navy kills hundreds of Iranian civilians…

Thirty six years ago, on this day, July 3rd, 1988, the US navy killed hundreds of civilians

United States Navy warship USS Vincennes shoots down Iran Air Flight 655 over the Persian Gulf, killing all 290 people aboard.

Their crims and our crimes get reported differently, yes?

Robert M. Entman, Framing U.S. Coverage of International News: Contrasts in Narratives of the KAL and Iran Air Incidents, Journal of Communication, Volume 41, Issue 4, December 1991, Pages 6–27, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1460-2466.1991.tb02328.x

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 350ppm. As of 2024 it is 426ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that the Reagan lot had decided to intervene physically on behalf of the Iraqis in the so-called tanker wars, part of the Iran/Iraq War that had started in ‘79, or ‘80. The year before a whole bunch of Americans had been killed on the USS Stark, one of Saddam Hussein’s pilots had gotten itchy trigger fingers. Assuming it was an accident, I assume it was. And it’s extraordinary that this was basically forgiven and forgotten. It must have been very weird indeed for the families of the dead from USS Stark very weird indeed. Because of course, part of the narrative wasn’t it didn’t fit. 

What we learn is that inconvenient events can be airbrushed out of history.

See also the comparison of coverage between the KAL 007 committed by the Soviets. And this there is actually an academic paper comparing the two. 

What happened next? The tanker war finished, Saddam Hussein then miscalculated. You know, maybe he thought, “well, if I can shoot a US destroyer. And they say, ‘No problem,’ then will they really be bothered if I invade Kuwait?” This was perhaps a miscalculation on his part. Eventually, the Americans paid someone 25 million to find Saddam dumped for them in a spider hole, then they executed him. Not for being their ally, but for some stuff. For the avoidance of doubt, Saddam Hussein was a freaking monster. But for a long time he was Uncle Sam’s monster. 

Meanwhile, four months later, a Pan Am jet was blown out of the sky. The Iranians were blamed, until their acquiescence was needed for the 1991 Gulf War, and the blame got pinned on Libya.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

July 3, 1986 – House of Lords debate about the atmosphere and fuel use…

July 3, 2008 – Greenpeace activists enter New South Wales coal power station

July 3, 2008 – Greenpeace occupies an Australian coal plant.

Categories
Australia Canada

July 2, 1988 – Scientists warn of devastation…

Thirty six years ago, on this day, July 2nd, 1988, scientists called it, and people in Australia’s capital were warned.

TORONTO, Friday (KRD).—Toronto scientists and policymakers from 46 nations say global damage from “greenhouse” warming and other man-made atmospheric changes may ultimately be second in magnitude only to the devastation of a nuclear war.

They also called on industrialised countries to tax fossil-fuel consumption to finance a fund to protect the atmosphere and drastically cut carbon-dioxide emissions.

Anon, 1988. Scientists warn of devastation. The Canberra Times, 2 July, p.6.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 350ppm. As of 2024 it is 426ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that the Changing Atmosphere conference had happened in Toronto, the days before.

The Canberra Times had been banging on about environmental issues for a long time. See, for example, a book review as far back as 1967, which mentioned the possible impacts of carbon dioxide. And already by this stage, the Greenhouse Project had launched and Greenhouse 87 had happened and Greenhouse 88 was well advanced in its planning. 

What we learn is that none of this was a state secret. Even before Bush and Thatcher got hold of it, it was all out there for anyone who wanted to pay attention. Of course, there are incentives not to pay attention. Very big incentives indeed. And most of us go for those incentives. Why wouldn’t we? And to be clear, those incentives are both internal and external, and can be dialled up or dialled down. We, as a species, have chosen to dial them down, and dial up the incentives to not pay attention. 

 What happened next? Greenhouse 88, with US scientist Stephen Schneider coming over, local scientists saying the same. And here we are 36 years later, having failed to act and having actually made things a lot worse. It is somewhat depressing, I’ll admit, if you’re attached to the idea of humans as an even potentially rational species. If you let go of that illusion, I suppose it becomes more explicable and forgivable. But think of all the other species we’re taking down with us. What a shitshow. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

July 2, 1952 – Rachel Carson says Arctic warming

July 2, 1993. Denialists versus the facts, again.

July 2, 2007 – Australia learns it has been left “High & Dry” on #climate change

July 2, 2013 – Ignorant man who became prime minister disses wind farms

July 2, 2013 – Boris Johnson, expert on energy systems, attacks windfarms

Categories
Science Scientists Sweden

June 6, 1988 – Scientists say we are entering a new phase

Thirty six years ago, on this day, June 6th, 1988 there is a well-publicised warning by scientists in Stockholm (Bolin etc) releasing study.

We are entering a new phase….

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 351ppm. As of 2024 it is 426ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that ever since the pivotal meeting in Villach, in September 1985, scientists had been trying to raise the alarm – briefing senators, writing reports etc etc.

What we learn is that James Hansen’s testimony, on June 23 1988, did not appear in a vacuum. The terrain was being prepared by many others.

What happened next was that Hansen’s testimony – and the Changing Atmosphere meeting in Toronto the week after, at the end of June – set the ball rolling. 

The emissions have kept climbing, of course. As have the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. And here we are.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

June 6, 1977 – German scientist Hermann Flohn asks “Whither the Atmosphere and the Earth’s climate?”

June 6, 1978 – Exxon presentation about carbon dioxide build-up

Categories
United States of America

March 10, 1988 – Congressional staff (go on a) retreat on Climate

Thirty six years ago, on this day, March 10th, 1988,

Congressional Staff Retreat on Climate Change, held at Airlie, Virginia, 10-11 March 1988 page 305 Abrahamson, D. (ed) 1989. The Challenge of Global Warming. Washington DC:  Natural Resources Defense Council

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 351ppm. As of 2024 it is 425ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that there had been an intense period of rising concern about the climate issue through the 80s and especially since late 1985, and the pivotal Villach meeting hosted by UNEP, WMO and ICSU. And it was time to try and get a whole bunch of congressional staffers who cared about the issue, if not onto the same page, at least into the same chapter. And of course, this was in the days before mobile phones, let alone smartphones. So you could do a retreat and get some attention. So. clever move if you’re trying to sensitise a policy subsystem.  It “worked”.

What I think we can learn from this is that policy entrepreneurs try to lay the groundwork for themselves. That takes money and credibility. Of course, you can’t do it really well as radical groups – it’s what liberal groups are supposed to be doing. And to be fair, they do do it to some extent, if only at a national level more than a local level. 

What happened next: Well, the timing was excellent because three months later in the middle of the very long, hot American Summer, and indeed drought, NASA scientist James Hansen gave his testimony to some senators (June 23, 1988). The Toronto conference happened, and gave us the Toronto Target. And suddenly, even Republican presidential hopeful George HW Bush was having to acknowledge the existence of the greenhouse effect, which, he said, he was going to combat with the White House Effect. (See also Grant Swinger).

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

March 10, 2010 – ABC chairman gives stupid speech to staff

March 10, 2012- RIP Sherry Rowland

Categories
Australia

February 26, 1988 – Australian climate scientist Graeme Pearman warns of “Dramatic Warming”

Thirty-six years ago, on this day, February 26th, 1988, four months before James Hansen gave his dramatic and pivotal testimony in Washington DC, an Australian climate scientist, Graeme Pearman, was speaking out on the same topic.

https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/101979010

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 351ppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that there was the “Elizabeth and Frederick White Research Conference on Global Change at the Australian Academy of Science in Canberra, against the backdrop of increasing global awareness and the “Greenhouse Project” initiated by the Commission for the Future and the CSIRO.  Pearman been studying climate change for 17 years by this time with CSIRO trying to alert people. And over the last 10 years, there had been a dramatic warming; this was captured also later that year. In March in a conference about the Gaia hypothesis held in San Diego. 

What we learn is that we’ve known – and we’ve chosen to ignore scientists and keep voting for the people who ignore scientists. Oh, and by the way, both mainstream political parties ignore the scientists. 

What happened next? A few months later, climate change properly exploded onto public consciousness, stayed there until about 1990-91 when the Gulf War took over. dislodging Saddam Hussein from Kuwait. And then it didn’t really come back until 2006, with The Inconvenient Truth etc.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

See also Graeme Pearman in January 1992 on the gamble.

Also on this day: 

Feb 26, 1981 – Science writer warns readers about the greenhouse in the Guardian….

 Feb 26, 1998 – Australian “clean coal” is on the way (again).

February 26, 2014 – Advanced Propaganda for Morons