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 January 15, 1990 – A political lunch with enormous #climate consequences for Australia #PathDependency #Denial  

On this day, January 15, 1990, with a Federal Election looming, the Opposition leader and would-be Prime Minister Andrew Peacock and his shadow Environment Minister Chris Puplick, met with the boss of the Australian Conservation Foundation (ACF)…  The political journalist Paul Kelly (not the same guy who sings the songs!) tells it thus.

Peacock and Puplick met the ACF’s Philip Toyne for lunch at an Italian restaurant in Melbourne. This discussion has passed into Liberal folklore as a great deception. Peacock and Puplick say that Toyne told them that the ACF would not be actively advocating a vote for either of the major parties in the House. It would be supporting the Democrats and minor parties in the Senate. Peacock and Publick left with a misplaced optimism. The political truth is that there was no way that Labor’s investment in the greens would be denied. The entire ALP was confident that it would have the green’s backing. It is idle to think that Toyne was unaware of these realities.

Kelly, P. (1992) The End of Certainty. p.543

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 353.8ppm. As of 2023 it is 419. 

The context was that the Liberals were hoping to form the next government, and had some relatively bold proposals (or rather, targets!).  They wanted the environment movement ‘bosses’ to “play dead” during the impending Federal Election campaign.

What I think we can learn from this

  1. Personalities matter. Narratives of betrayal stick, and become ‘folklore’. (But also, this can be overplayed. The Libs and Nats were never going to become Chipko women. The idea that there is a path dependency from January 15 1990 is… heroic).
  2. Ultimately, if you want to have a better future, then you need a broad-based and “uncontrollable” set of social movements that force politicians and businesses to face environmental and social realities.  And I do not know how those movements would grow and sustain themselves and each other, in the context of super-wicked problems and the seductions of stale repertoires and the abyss… But maybe that’s just me.

What happened next

The Libs went anti-green, and have basically stayed there ever since. It is finally, in 2023, costing them electorally.  

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong?  Do comment on this post.

References

Kelly, P. (1992) The End of Certainty

See also the ACF guide

And

Downloadable via 

https://www.reasoninrevolt.net.au/objects/pdf/d0380.pdf