Thirty nine years ago, on this day, June 25th, 1986
The 18th Meeting of the Australian Environment Council on 25 June heard a special address on the environmental consequences for Australia of probable global climatic change.
The address, by the Chief of the CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research, Dr. G. B. Tucker, was arranged so that Ministers could hear a first-hand account of recent studies of the effects of carbon dioxide and other trace gases on the atmosphere (the ‘greenhouse’ effect). Dr Tucker told the meeting of findings from measurements made at the Commonwealth baseline air monitoring stations at Cape Grim, Tasmania, which indicate in concentrations of key gases associated with climate change. He demonstrated the global effect which could take place within fifty years and said that the changes could not only take place in such a relatively shot time, but “There is nothing we can do about it.” For instance, in Australia there is likely to be a 2 degree C rise in mean summer temperatures b 2030.
Dr Tucker said that the effect of a two degree rise in temperatures brought about by the greenhouse effect could seriously diminish rainfall in the grain growing areas of the northern hemisphere. IN Australia it could cause increased rainfall in northern areas and some grain growing areas. A two degree rise could drastically alter the snowfield climate to that of an area 300 metres lower. Dr Tucker said he had used these examples to illustrate some of the problems which Australia would have to begin planning for.
The Chairman of the AEC, Dr Don Hopgood, (Deputy Premier of South Australia and Minister for Environment and Planning) said Dr Tucker had foreshadowed a complex of problems which would have to be faced in the coming years. The issue was of global and regional significance and Australia should continue to play an active role in scientific studies on climatic change and its implications.
Vol 6 (2) October 1986, page 5
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 347ppm. As of 2025 it is 430ppm, but check here for daily measures.
The context was in September 1985 atmospheric scientists had met, compared notes and decided that all alarm bells needed to be rung about carbon dioxide.
Australian scientists had long been aware of the problem – see for example the meeting organised in 1977 by Graeme Pearman of the CSIRO, the 1978 conference on Philip Island, the 1980 AAAS symposium in Canberra, and Brian Tucker’s 1981 publication.
Meanwhile, the “Commission for the Future”, set up under the auspices of Minister for Science Barry Jones, was collaborating with the CSIRO on “the Greenhouse Project.”
What I think we can learn from this is that before an issue “breaks through” there has to be a hell of a lot of preparatory work…
What happened next is that the media started to pay a lot more attention (see the Age). Chair of the AEC Don Hopgood gave a speech. By 1988, the issue was everywhere. And yet here we are, four decades later, having utterly, fundamentally failed. Oh well.
What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.
Also on this day:
June 25, 2002, 2003 and 2008 – CCS’s first hype cycle builds – All Our Yesterdays