Tag: Brian Tucker

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Australia

September 17, 1980 – Canberra Times reports “fossil fuels changing climate”

Forty five  years ago, on this day, September 17th, 1980, the Canberra Times ran a story on page 7 “Fossil fuels changing climate.”  Read it and weep.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 339ppm. As of 2025, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.

The broader context was that in various places (I can speak for the US, UK, Germany) research was underway and far-sighted politicians were beginning to worry. In 1977 the Canberra Times had a page 5 story “Cities “could be flooded”. While the First World Climate Conference hadn’t delivered a particularly strong statement, nonetheless, concern was there.

The specific context was that CSIRO scientists had been beavering away. One of them, Graeme Pearman, had been involved in 1977 in various studies in the US and Europe, and had returned and held a seminar. The Australian Academy of Science and others had sponsored a workshop on Phillip Island in November 1978.

What I think we can learn from this – don’t expect governments of societies built on extraction and export to be enthused when you tell them that there is trouble ahead if they don’t change their ways.

What happened next

They were not enthused. They did not, in fact, change their ways. The trouble is arriving.  But it’s early early days of the Fafocene.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

September 17, 1954 – nuclear electricity will be too cheap to meter – All Our Yesterdays

September 17, 1969 – trying to spin Vietnam, Moynihan starts warning about #climate change

September 17, 1987 – report on “The Greenhouse Project” launch

September 17, 2002 – UK Government announces feasibility study into Carbon Capture and Storage

Categories
Australia

 June 25, 1986 – AEC meeting

Thirty nine years ago, on this day, June 25th, 1986

The 18th Meeting of the Australian Environment Council on 25 June heard a special address on the environmental consequences for Australia of probable global climatic change.

The address, by the Chief of the CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research, Dr. G. B. Tucker, was arranged so that Ministers could hear a first-hand account of recent studies of the effects of carbon dioxide and other trace gases on the atmosphere (the ‘greenhouse’ effect). Dr Tucker told the meeting of findings from measurements made at the Commonwealth baseline air monitoring stations at Cape Grim, Tasmania, which indicate in concentrations of key gases associated with climate change. He demonstrated the global effect which could take place within fifty years and said that the changes could not only take place in such a relatively shot time, but “There is nothing we can do about it.” For instance, in Australia there is likely to be a 2 degree C rise in mean summer temperatures b 2030.

Dr Tucker said that the effect of a two  degree rise in temperatures brought about by the greenhouse effect could seriously diminish rainfall in the grain growing areas of the northern hemisphere. IN Australia it could cause increased rainfall in northern areas and some grain growing areas. A two degree rise could drastically alter the snowfield climate to that of an area 300 metres lower. Dr Tucker said he had used these examples to illustrate some of the problems which Australia would have to begin planning for.

The Chairman of the AEC, Dr Don Hopgood, (Deputy Premier of South Australia and Minister for Environment and Planning) said Dr Tucker had foreshadowed a complex of problems which would have to be faced in the coming years. The issue was of global and regional significance and Australia should continue to play an active role in scientific studies on climatic change and its implications.

Vol 6 (2) October 1986, page 5

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 347ppm. As of 2025 it is 430ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was in September 1985 atmospheric scientists had met, compared notes and decided that all alarm bells needed to be rung about carbon dioxide.

Australian scientists had long been aware of the problem – see for example the meeting organised in 1977 by Graeme Pearman of the CSIRO, the 1978 conference on Philip Island, the 1980 AAAS symposium in Canberra, and Brian Tucker’s 1981 publication.

Meanwhile, the “Commission for the Future”, set up under the auspices of Minister for Science Barry Jones, was collaborating with the CSIRO on “the Greenhouse Project.”

What I think we can learn from this is that before an issue “breaks through” there has to be a hell of a lot of preparatory work…

What happened next is that the media started to pay a lot more attention (see the Age). Chair of the AEC Don Hopgood gave a speech.  By 1988, the issue was everywhere. And yet here we are, four decades later, having utterly, fundamentally failed. Oh well.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

June 25, 2002, 2003 and 2008 – CCS’s first hype cycle builds – All Our Yesterdays

Categories
Australia Denial Uncategorized

November 29, 1990 and 1994 – Australian denial fools (Fred Singer and Brian Tucker)

Thirty-four and thirty years ago, on this day, November 29th, 1990/1994, two climate denialists who really ought to have known better (and did, before idiocy overtook them) were spouting their nonsens.

29 November 1990 Fred Singer The Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming: Fact or Fiction? Tasman Institute Seminar

and

29 November 1994 – Canberra Times piece IPA whining about greenhouse, wheeling out Brian Tucker, who had been head of the CSIRO’s Atmospheric Sciences Division.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 354ppm/359ppm. As of 2024 it is 423ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context is this: We have two examples of high status dickheads, one American, one Australian, denying the reality of climate change. What were both sort of relatively crucial moments in history. So in 1990, Ros Kelly had just come back from the Second World Climate Conference. The negotiations for a climate treaty were about to begin in earnest within a couple of months. In the second case, there was a battle going on about whether to have a carbon tax. And in both cases, the denialists will have said, “Oh, it’s all a scare. It’s all hysteria. Nothing should be done, needs to be done. And any action that is taken is merely rent seeking and appealing to silly ill informed portions of the electorate.” 

Gee, that went well didn’t it? And I want to say this again. Fuck you, and burn in hell you pricks. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

November 29, 1973 – Australian politician warns of climate change

NOVEMBER 29, 1974 – SWEDISH PRIME MINISTER SAYS “RISK OF A CHANGED CLIMATE DUE TO HUMAN ACTIVITIES … [IS] OF UTTER IMPORTANCE”

November 29, 1988 – Australian parliamentarians taught climate

Categories
Australia Denial

August 18, 1996, Ex-CSIRO #climate boss shows he has lost the plot

On this day, August 18 in 1996, Brian Tucker, who had headed up the CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research, and attended some important scientific meetings, reveals himself incapable of understanding that the world does not conform to how you would wish it to be.

[The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 361.55 ppm. Now it is 421ish- but see here for the latest.]

“Brian Tucker, previous Chief of the CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research, is now  a Senior Fellow at the IPA where he trades on his scientific credentials to push an ideological agenda. In 1996 in a talk on ABC’s Ockham’s Razor he stated that ‘unchallenged climatic disaster hyperbole has induced something akin to a panic reaction from policy makers both national and international”

[From a Sharon Beder article in 1999]

Tucker, B. 1996. A Rational Consideration of Global Warming. Ockham’s Razor, ABC Radio National, 18 August.

Tucker was also busy writing screeds in the IPA’s magazine that, looking back, were frankly an embarrassment

Why this matters. 

Beder notes that

Tucker’s article The Greenhouse Panic was reprinted in Engineering World a magazine aimed at engineers. The article, introduced by the magazine editor as “a balanced assessment,” argues that “alarmist prejudices of insecure people have been boosted by those who have something to gain from widespread public concern.”[42] This article, which would have been more easily dismissed as an IPA publication, has been quoted by Australian engineers at conferences as if it was an authoritative source.”

And thus is a counter-common sense “engineered.” Once bullshit is republished in other venues, it gains a halo effect from those other places, and gets repeated again, until finally it seems a solid piece of fact.

The CIA used to call it ‘surfacing’ (maybe still do?). Plant stories in local newspapers in the countries you’re trying to subvert, then quote those as “evidence” when trying to get more money out of the US government…

What happened next?

We kept digging up and exporting coal. Of course we did.

Categories
Australia Denial

July 16, 1992 – American scientist claims “no firm evidence” of #climate change Australian National Press Club #denial

On this day, July 16, 1992, an American scientist was invited to pour scorn on the carbon dioxide theory of climate change….

CANBERRA, July 16, Reuter – An American scientist said on Thursday that there was no firm evidence of global warming or that the phenomenon was caused by humans.

Fear of global warming was being manipulated by politicians, Professor Richard Lindzen, a meteorologist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, told Australia’s National Press Club.

Reuters, 1992. US expert attacks global warming theories. Reuters News, 16 July.

Lindzen had been brought out by Brian Tucker, then the head of the CSIRO Atmospheric Research Division. Tucker had written a decent monograph for popular consumption about the “Carbon Dioxide Problem” in 1981, but was by this time jumping the shark, and after he retired would pen unhinged denialist tracts for the IPA (a particularly obnoxious Australian “think” tank).

Lindzen was not the only figure brought out in this period, by the way – the IPA and Tasman Institute were also importing “credible” Americans, in their battle against a carbon tax, and any environmental regulation.

Why this matters. 

It’s that Toni Morrison line about racism as distraction, isn’t it?

What happened next?

Tucker jumped the shark. Australia didn’t get a carbon price until 2012, and then only very briefly (Thanks Tony, I bet you’re proud). Lindzen is still around, so libel laws constrain me… Here are some “third party characterisations” via Wikipedia –