On this day, May 29, 1969, Dave Keeling gave an inaugural lecture. Its title –
“A Chemist Thinks About the Future”
I could quote for hours.
“Nevertheless, no atmospheric scientist doubts that a sufficiently large change in atmospheric carbon dioxide would change the climate: we need only compare our atmosphere with the very hot carbon dioxide-laden atmosphere of Venus to guess the consequences of unrestricted carbon dioxide increase. The question is: how much before it matters? “
The whole thing is worth a read- the citation is
Charles D. Keeling PhD (1970) A Chemist Thinks About the Future, Archives of Environmental Health: An International Journal, 20:6, 764-777, DOI: 10.1080/00039896.1970.10665656
To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00039896.1970.10665656
From the end (spoilers!) Keeling writes this
“Today we hold widely divergent views concerning possible peril. Have you noticed that practically all master plans do not project beyond the year 2000 AD? Our college students, however, today expect or hope to live beyond that date, and I predict that they will be the first generation to feel such strong concern for man’s future that they will discover means of effective action. This action may be less pleasant and rational than the corrective measures that we promote today, but 30 years from now, if present trends are a sign, mankind’s world will be in greater immediate danger than it is today. Immediate corrective measures, if such exist, will be closer at hand. If the human race survives into the 21st century with the vast population increase that now seems inevitable, the people living then, in addition to their other troubles, may face the threat of climatic change brought about by an uncontrolled increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide from fossil fuels.”
(Keeling, 1970: 776-7)
Btw, have you noticed that practically all of today’s master plans do not project beyond the year 2050 AD?
This graphic is darkly amusing –
We’re now at 420ppm, not 320. So it goes.
Why this matters.
It doesn’t, particularly, any more than any blog post on this site does. But it keeps me off the streets, so there’s that.
What happened next?
Keeling kept on counting.
The thing he kept counting kept climbing.
And here we are.
[but of course, beware the fetishization of carbon dioxide!]