Forty three years ago, on this day, April 24, 1980, a US administrator said the models were good…
DH Slade, Director of the US Department of Energy’s Carbon Dioxide and Climate Division, who stated in his introductory remarks to the participants in the Carbon Dioxide and Climate Research Program Conference held in Washington DC on April 24-5, 1980: “I think it would be very remarkable indeed if today’s results in the general circulation model community were shown to be fundamentally incorrect at some future time.”
LE Schmitt, ed, 1980 Carbon Dioxide Effects Research and Assessment Program 011.
(Idso, 1982: 52)
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 340.9ppm. As of 2023 it is 420ppm, but check here for daily measures.
The context was that US scientists were on an upward trajectory around climate. The NAS report in 1977, had started institutional wheels, turning the Charney report in 1979 had shown that yes, indeed co2 was a problem. And the work of the Department of Energy, National Academy of Sciences, American Association for the Advancement of Science, etc. was continuing. There were international workshops afoot. The disappointment of the First World Climate Conference not being stronger, was a minor irritant.
What I think we can learn from this
Something Slade said is very important. You know, the models are good enough. One of the things that the denialists will tell you is that the models have exaggerated. They’ll also say there’s no physical evidence, which is a lie. They’ll say the models are exaggerated. The models have actually been rather good. Some of the extrapolations, maybe not, but see here for an assessment of what the models have achieved.
What we learned from this is that smart people 40 plus years ago, had begun to really nut this out.
What happened next
Reagan put the kibosh on all of this. And it would be 1988 before the issue could properly break through
(see Stephen Schneider contact sport for gory details).
What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.