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Academia Activism Documentaries Fafocene

On documentaries, delusions and doom: Why we get what we get, what we need and why we won’t get it.

The new “Just Stop Oil” documentary is (yet) another missed opportunity to get an important conversation started about social movements, our crises and complicities, and what needs to change.


Early on in “The Line We Crossed” the new and overlong documentary following a group of Just Stop Oil activists as they slow march their way around London in 2023, one of them says “context is massively important.” He’s referring to defences in criminal cases for obstruction and the like, but it occurred to me that this very much applies to the film.  It was only ten minutes or so in, but already my forebodings were proving true. There was no context whatsoever, not even as far back as 2018, when Extinction Rebellion (it got one scant mention) burst onto the scene, promising to force the government to make the UK zero carbon by 2025.

There was no explanation of what climate change IS and what is causing it (we’ll come back to my encounter with a taxi driver on my way home, in another post.).

There was no context about the way the British state acts when it…

Look, I could go on for a loooong time about the failings of this film (in its defence, it’s mostly competently made, and doesn’t pretend to be anything it isn’t). I don’t have the energy, patience or inclination to write all that, you don’t have those to read all that, and it will come across as patriarchal bullying if I do. 

So instead, I want to see this film as a symptom of a much much wider problem (previously I’ve used words like Smugosphere and Emotacycle – they may get a run below).

I am going to try to answer a few questions about what social movements (made up of individuals, groups, NGOs etc) need, (don’t) get and ways forward. The list of questions is here –

  • What is it that we get (from documentaries, but also books etc) again and again. And again.
    WHY do we get that (beyond morality tales about laziness/complicity etc)
  • Why does that matter?
  • What do we need?
  • Why don’t we get it?
  • (Bonus – ignore if you’re so inclined) Why it wouldn’t matter, even if we did get it.
  • What is to be done?

I have tackled (ranted) about this before.

What we get time and again – “hooray for our side”

What a field day for the heat.

A thousand people in the street,

Singing songs and carrying signs,

Mostly say, “Hooray for our side.”

Buffalo Springfield “For What It’s Worth”

I’ve been in/around environmental protest/dissent/resistance most of my adult life; the first time I can say I was properly involved was the late 1990s.  I say this not for brownie points, or claims of expertise, but just to point out that if you stick around long enough, you see the same film pop up again and again. The title and participants change, but the song remains the same.

I saw it around the time of Indymedia, I saw it as the 2006-2010 wave wound down (“Just Do It”). It was there during fracking (have tried to expunge that one, and am not inclined to go looking). It was there during the beginning of the “youth strike” – “Meet the Wild Things” and “The Giants.

What these (and other films) have in common is that they are largely cheap, unreflective decontextualised hagiography (= “the making of saints”), following individuals or individuals-within-a-group as they “try to make a difference.”

Why we get that 

Here’s where I need to not get personal (!), or rather, engage in the Fundamental Attribution Error.  These films aren’t the way they are because of any personal failings/perspectives of the film-makers (whom I’ve not met).

We also need to get away from cheap/easy cynicism that the documentaries are what they are because they are planned only a recruiting tool (though they often arrive too late for that, and in the case of TLWC, wouldn’t work on multiple levels) or that they are merely CV points for the film maker.

We need to think in terms of systems, incentives, pressures (understood and ‘invisible’). Here’s a non-exhaustive list

  • Film-makers need for access to present and future subjects, and if word gets around that they are “neutral” or “questioning” they will be lumped in with the mass media, which, by and large is quite rightly mistrusted/loathed.
  • Film-makers also have a need for “hope” as a narrative
  • Film-makers need to keep funders happy (especially an issue around crowdfunding, I’d guess, but also foundations don’t like their hands bitten when they are feeding).

Ultimately, for a host of reasons – psychological, social, financial etc – hopey-changey hagiography is path of least resistance. It is what everyone expects, and what almost everyone wants most/all of the time (I am an outlier, I know, “But I’m not the only one. I hope someday you’ll…”)

Why does that matter?

“Not everything that can be faced can be changed, but nothing can be changed until it is faced.”

James Baldwin, 1962

We are in the shit.  We have no idea what we are into here. When “the greenhouse effect” finally became a public issue in 1988, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide were roughly 352 parts per million.  Emissions spiralled upwards since then (roughly 70% higher than they were then) and atmospheric concentrations are now at 428ppm and surging annually.) 
Most importantly for my purposes, the simple fact is that civil society has been mostly asleep at the wheel, until it is jolted into periodic half-wakefulness by brave and determined activists who demand action. Then, for various reasons, the “issue attention cycle” kicks in, the activists burn out and lick their wounds and prison sentences, technophilia reasserts itself and almost everyone goes back to sleep. 

So what we need is individuals and groups who are able to see this pattern, and prepare for it, and sustain themselves. I wrote about this here, in 2017.

Hagiography, where you spend far more time than you need to in the company of naive well-meaning people who learn tough lessons in the strategic and tactical capacity of the states and corporations is not helping.  There is an argument to be made that – beyond the taking-up-of-bandwidth problem – it is actually harmful, but I am not going to go there today.

What we need

What we need is, therefore “sense-making”

Sensemaking or sense-making is the process by which people give meaning to their collective experiences. It has been defined as “the ongoing retrospective development of plausible images that rationalize what people are doing” (Weick, Sutcliffe, & Obstfeld, 2005, p. 409). The concept was introduced to organizational studies by Karl E. Weick in the late 1960’s and has affected both theory and practice. 

We need cognitive maps so people know where they are, what the stakes are, what has and hasn’t ‘worked’ in the past, etc etc.

I will use TLWC as an example, but again, it is not uniquely inadequate, it’s merely the latest (and for me last) example of the genre.

We need films that explain, in simple terms, what climate change is (the duvet analogy works really well, in my experience). If you can find an actual climate scientist willing to say it, all the better, but they’ll probably fear for their precious reputation and “trivialising” the science. That’s just them bowing to the institutional pressure within their tribe. Mostly, they can’t help themselves. So it goes.

We need films that explain what the state (British in this case) actually IS and what it is FOR and what it has DONE historically to those people who organise to try to get it to do something other than protect the perceived short-term interests of the people who run the State/who are protected by the state.

People think the state is Santa Claus – a kindly old gent who will reward you if you can prove that you have been good for long enough. Documentaries like TLWC don’t do anything about this, ah, “misapprehension.” There is a glancing reference to the suffragettes, but nothing on how the State mobilised to demonise and punish those activists. If the JSo crew knew the history of the suffragettes, beyond Pankhurst #1 and #2 and perhaps Emily Davison, then they wouldn’t have been so surprised as they were by the end of the film (actually, I missed the last few minutes – a bus to catch).

TLWC could have done even a brief job on the flurry of laws passed in the aftermath of the Napoleonic Wars, as the social consequences of the Industrial Revolution began to kick in.  It could have talked about Spycops (an astonishing oversight) and the Prevention of Terrorism Act 2000. It could have…  Note, I am NOT saying you have to go into exhaustive detail, but “context is massively important.”

We need films that include supportive critical voices – people who are equally concerned about “The Issue”, but disagree with the particular tactics (or “strategy” if you’re being unduly generous) being pursued.

I can’t believe I am typing this, because I am one of the most cynical people I know on the role and function of academics, but even I would – through gritted teeth – admit that some of them do have something to add and if you film say an hour you might get as much as 45 seconds of useable material out of them.  Get them talking about the history, the politics, the nature of social movements, the nature of issue-attention cycles etc etc etc.

Basically, making an entire film out of a-roll and (quite a lot of) b-roll of activists “on the ground” is cloying, claustrophobic and senseless-making.  TLWC had only a handful of “outsiders” – Suella Braverman, Jocelyn Maugham, someone from Liberty and a semi-outsider, Tim from Defend Our Juries. 

We need films that ask activists to expound on some of the challenges – pushback from family and friends (and how they handle it), how they deal with hostility from the General Public (there’s footage in TLWC of an enraged motorist snatching banners and smacking mobiles out of activists hands. I am not saying he was right, or that he should necessarily be given “air time” to explain his views, but how about at least getting the JSO people to reflect on that?)

We need films (and groups) to talk about why people don’t stay involved (and they largely don’t, through little/no fault of their own. The way organisations are, they’re basically decruitment engines.  Irony – at least three people in the audience gave up on the film before I had to leave).

Why we won’t get it (see also “why we get that” above)

The kind of film I am talking about is not going to get made (though I would be genuinely delighted to be proved wrong – have at me in the comments.

Basically, in these late days of late capitalism, at the beginning of (the rich Westerner bit of, anyway) the Fafocene, we are clinging to hope and the idea that social movement are bold entrepreneurs with power much as Linus clings to his security blanket in Peanuts – it’s a classic transitional object, rather like transition theory itself.

To put it in blunt terms – nobody likes Debbie Downers, buzzkills. Nobody is happy if you piss on their chips if chips is all they have to eat. 

For psychological, cognitive, social and financial reasons, hagiography is easier and safer.

These documentaries are the equivalent of the stage-managed top down meeting where those in the cliques talk and preen but nothing gets achieved, and those came in the hope of getting information, opportunities for connection and action or all of the above slink out and are never seen again. 

Bonus (skip if you like – fmdidgad)

Why it wouldn’t matter even if we did get it

Beyond the temporal factor – these documentaries usually appear too late anyway even to be “recruiting tools” – there are deeper problems. The streets have emptied

“We” don’t have the absorptive capacity to take on new ideas, new numbers (of people who can’t get arrested, who can’t drop everything for The Cause).

We are prisoners of our pasts – as the adage goes, past performance is the best indicator of past performance, and our past performance sucks; decades of failure

There’s a (not very good) film adaptation of Graham Greene’s novel  “The Honorary Consul.” In it, there’s a prison breakout and someone who was held below ground for ages comes out, blinking in the harsh sun.  If he had legged it straight away, he might have avoided the guard’s bullets.  But he simply doesn’t have the capacity. He has been a prisoner too long and… You can tell I need to wrap this up, can’t you? I’ll do a post about the taxi-driver and me another day. Perhaps – it’s mostly about the efficacy of the duvet analogy, anyway.

The Ways Forward (my heart isn’t in this)

If civil society were going to get up on its hind legs it would have done so by now. I have used the line “the time to stamp on the brakes is before the bus goes off the cliff. Once it has you can stamp that pedal all you like, but it won’t change the outcome. And moving ripped up seat foam to the front in the hope of softening impact is fine to keep you busy, but, well, see above…

However, I said there were be a “ways forward” bit. So here it is. But it’s based on some “ifs…”

IF we had spaces where people could meet free from commercial and surveillance imperatives

IF we had norms around the design and facilitation of meetings that were enforceable, and (collectively) enforced so that issues were properly and thoroughly aired, and the meetings not dominated by the most high status within the subculture, by the most confident etc…

IF we had a universal basic income so more people had bandwidth to even have the time and energy to participate in civil society/social movements activity

IF we had states (local, national) that were responsive to popular pressure in meaningful ways (NB Santa Claus model)

IF we understood, collectively, the planet-wide catastrophes that are hoving into view as the consequences of a demented model of growth and a mismeasure of what is “sustainable”

And

IF we had giant machines that could cost-free suck billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and store them safely, bringing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide back to, say, 350ppm

Well, in that case….

I still don’t see how we can survive.

Further reading I couldn’t be bothered to hyperlink within this above

Extinction Rebellion says ‘we quit’ – why radical eco-activism has a short shelf life

JSO – why are you trashing your brand for pennies?

Just Stop Oil – anthropologically fascinating but politically terrifying | manchester climate monthly

Dear ‘new’ #climate activist. Unsolicited advice, #oldfartclimateadvice

Cher, incentive structures and our inevitable doom

Has Extinction Rebellion got the right tactics? | New Internationalist

From the book of Roger | manchester climate monthly  (This one I am quite fond of, proud of)

Categories
Podcasts

May 28, 2025 – signs of the times

You can listen to this here (NB Terrible Sound Quality – if/when I do actual podcasting I will have to get some proper kit!)

May 28, 2025, with the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide at 430ppm, up from 315ppm in 1958.

Three pieces of news today tell you everything you need to know about the planet and the prospects for our species.  Taking them in turn – physical, government-capital and “resistance”.

The physical news first. 

As Madeline Cuff, writing for the New Scientist reports

The world could see its first year of warming above 2°C by the end of the decade, leading climate scientists have warned for the first time…. The chances of seeing a year above 2°C of warming are still very slim, with the WMO/Met Office team estimating the probability at 1 per cent. 

She quotes Leon Hermanson of the Met Office as saying “It’s exceptionally unlikely, but it could happen”

It was the WMO – the World Meteorological Organisation that coordinated the use of satellites and other forms of data collection. In the mid1970s it was a key node in international cooperation and discussion of carbon dioxide build-up. The WMO hosted the First World Climate Conference in February 1979. It  could and should have been a turning point in the way politicians thought about atmospheric pollution.  Almost ten years later it was – along with the United Nations Environment Program – co-founder of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 

One of life’s mild coincidences is that 35 years ago today Working Group 1 of the IPCC released its first report on the science of climate change.

The government capital nexus

To the surprise of precisely no-one, in Australia, the Federal Labor government led by Anthony Albanese has said yes to climate chaos, by granting an extension to Woodside’s North West Shelf project. As per the Australia Institute, this is a disaster on five fronts.

The ALP was recently returned to office in Australia, with the overt climate denialists of the Coalition punished by voters. However, given decisions like these, one cannot but be reminded of the mournful closing lines of George Orwell’s Animal Farm – so spoilers – 

“The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.”

Resistance

Thirteen years ago the UK commentator George Monbiot asked the right question.  In an article called “The Mendacity of Hope” he wrote

“So this is the great question of our age: where is everyone? The monster social movements of the 19th century and first 80 years of the 20th have gone, and nothing has replaced them. Those of us who still contest unwarranted power find our footsteps echoing through cavernous halls once thronged by multitudes“

In late 2018 a new group – “Extinction Rebellion” – made a splash with a declaration of rebellion in Parliament Square in London and then the occupation of five bridges across the Thames. A “rebellion “in London in April 2019 gained a lot of press attention, but a follow-up in October 2019 was less successful and the wheels were wobbling, if not yet actually coming off. 2020 saw COVID and also offshoots from XR – a “Pink Party”, Insulate Britain and then, in 2022, “Just Stop Oil.” High profile arrestable actions followed, as did media smears and police and security service activity.  Many JSO activists have gone to jail. JSO has recently announced it is ceasing its activity. However, the past is not even the past. 

As the BBC’s Laura O’Neill reports

“Four Just Stop Oil protesters who were planning to glue themselves to the taxiway at Manchester Airport have been jailed.

Officers arrested Indigo Rumbelow, Margaret Reid, Leanorah Ward and Daniel Knorr as they were making their way to the airport on 4 August 2024.

They were equipped with heavy-duty bolt-cutters, angle grinders, glue, sand, Just Stop Oil high-visibility vests and a leaflet containing instructions to follow when interacting with police.

All four were found guilty of conspiracy to intentionally cause a public nuisance and jailed at Manchester Minshull Crown Court for between 18 and 30 months. Additionally, they were each fined £2,000.

So what can we expect?

We can expect more temperature records to fall. It would be no surprise to me at all to see us breach two degrees by 2030, though I suspect that won’t actually happen until, say 2035.  What does this mean? It means that the second half of the twenty-first century will make the first half of the twentieth look like a golden age of peace, love and understanding. 

We can expect more extractive capitalism projects to be given approval by supine/captured governments (though one should resist the illusions of a golden age -elected and unelected policymakers are almost always and everywhere mere meat puppets for whoever has the most money. It can be more complicated than that, but it usually isn’t.)

And given that the consequences of our species’ failure to act on scientists’ warnings are clear to all but those most determined to deny reality, we can expect more resistance.

The failure, over the last thirty five years of citizens in the West – with freedom of speech, assembly and information – to build strong, determined and resilient social movements and civil society organisations is a fascinating puzzle. Or perhaps a mundane puzzle, made fascinating by the consequences of the failure.  

In any case, despite the jailings, expect  more resistance at some point – which is not to say that that resistance will be any more effective than what has gone on these last thirty six years, as annual carbon dioxide emissions went up by almost 70 per cent and the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide rose from roughly 350 parts per million to the current level of 430ppm.

Categories
Activism

November 7, 2022 – journalist covering JSO protest arrested 

One year ago, on this day, November 7, 2022, Hertfordshire Police arrest a journo covering a Just Stop Oil protest.

On 21 Dec the police have to admit they breached his human rights

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 416ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that various police forces had clearly got the message from various Home Secretaries that it was open season on protesters and journalists. “Who will rid us of this troublesome priest/freelance journalist.” 

What was interesting was that there was still outrage and fear and even a backing down by the Hertfordshire police. Whether that lasts or whether the forces of darkness have successfully chipped away at another of the hard-won protections remains to be seen. 

What I think we can learn from this even if it’s a game and we’re cynical, you need to defend laws protecting people.

What happened next

More JSO protests, now with added violence from bystanders. The government wanting to use the word “extremist” against anyone it doesn’t like… The usual slide into authoritarianism…

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Categories
Letters to publications

Letter in FT about Thatcher, Just Stop Oil, #climate

Whoop, the Financial Times has published my letter!(31st December 2022)

The excellent letter from Patricia Finney (‘It’s simple physics and chemistry – climate change will kill us all’, FT 17 December) will hopefully give readers of the FT in high places pause for thought. 

There are two points I wish to clarify. First, she states “scientists have been warning about it for 30 years.” Sadly, the warnings go back to the 1950s. Through the 1970s various UK civil servants and scientists became steadily more concerned. (see Jon Agar, 2015  “Future forecast – changeable and probably getting worse”: the UK Government’s Early Response to Anthropogenic Climate Change . Twentieth Century British History, Volume 26, Issue 4). Finally, in 1980 they briefed Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. who replied incredulously, “Are you telling me I should worry about the weather?” (see John Campbell, Margaret Thatcher. Vol. 2: The Iron Lady (London, 2003), 642-643.)

Secondly, Finney argues that “nothing else has worked, not petitions, not marches.” Agreed, but what hasn’t been tried, or tried repeatedly and reflexively enough, is the building of coalitions between workers, environmentalists, the young, pensioners, academics that can resist the lure of repeated feel-good mobilisations and also the dangers of being brought inside government and corporate tents for feel-good do-nothing roundtables and consultations.  

Just Stop Oil has, I would guess, around 1000 activists. The UK has a population of over 65 million.  In the words of the police chief in the film Jaws, “we’re going to need a bigger boat.”

Dr Marc Hudson