Ninety-two years ago, on this day, September 1st, 1933, an article appeared in the U Monthly Weather Review.
“The present wide-spread and persistent tendency toward warmer weather, and especially the recent long series of mild winters, has attracted considerable public interest; so much so that frequently the question is asked “Is our climate changing? ”
Written by JD Kincer it did not mention carbon dioxide or Arrhenius (which is fair enough – the carbon dioxide theory was in the doldrums!)
1 Sep 1933 Kincer “Is Our Climate Changing?” article – https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/61/9/1520-0493_1933_61_251_ioccas_2_0_co_2.xml
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 308ppm. As of 2025, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.
The broader context was that – as our denialist bezzies like to point out – “the climate is always changing”.
The specific context was that there seemed to be some warming in the Arctic, and this was known and not controversial (see this 1916 article).
What I think we can learn from this is that systems like the climate are painfully complex, and doing good science requires decent global measurements, computers and humility.
What happened next – a few years later, a British steam engineer called Guy Callendar presented his paper at the Royal Geographical Society. This was basically ignored, but in 1953, thanks to Gilbert Plass, carbon dioxide entered the building…
What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs
Also on this day:
September 1, 1970 – Environmentalism is an elite-diversion tactic, says American Maoist
September 1, 1972 – “Man-Made Carbon Dioxide and the “Greenhouse Effect” published in Nature
September 1, 1983- #climate change is all in the game, you feel me?
September 1, 1998 – Sydney Futures Exchange foresees a bright future. Ooops.