Twenty one years ago today, Science publishes the “Stabilisation Wedges” paper…
*Steven Pacala and Robert Socolow, “Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies,” Science 305, no. 5686 (August 13, 2004): 968-972,
“Humanity already possesses the fundamental scientific, technical, and industrial know-how to solve the carbon and climate problem for the next half-century. A portfolio of technologies now exists to meet the world’s energy needs over the next 50 years and limit atmospheric CO2 to a trajectory that avoids a doubling of the preindustrial concentration. Every element in this portfolio has passed beyond the laboratory bench and demonstration project; many are already implemented somewhere at full industrial scale. Although no element is a credible candidate for doing the entire job (or even half the job) by itself, the portfolio as a whole is large enough that not every element has to be used.”
Ha ha, we are so fubarred.
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 377ppm. As of 2025, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.
The broader context was that the discussions of “what to do” had been going on for a long long time.
The specific context was – the Bush administration had pulled out of Kyoto Protocol negotiations. Those wanting to “do something” were turning to technology.
What I think we can learn from this – the numbers around mitigation were daunting then. Now they’re laughable.
What happened next. Stabilisation wedges were flavour of the month for a while. Now? Haven’t heard them referenced for ages. It’s apparently all about the speed of wind and solar roll-out.
What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.
Also on this day:
August 13, 1882 – William “Coal Question” Jevons dies