Month: November 2022

Categories
Science Scientists Sweden

November 15, 1958 – Academic Paper on “Changes in Carbon Dioxide Content of Atmosphere and Sea Due to Fossil Fuel Combustion” submitted

On this day, November 15, in 1958 one of the first papers about, well, our current problem, was submitted for publication.

1958 Bolin and Eriksson’s classic paper         “Changes in the Carbon Dioxide Content of the Atmosphere and Sea Due to Fossil Fuel Combustion” submitted.

[The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 315ppm. At time of writing it was 421ishppm- but for what it is now,well, see here for the latest.]

The context was this – 

Through the 1950s, American and Swedish scientists (and others) were looking at carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere and saying to themselves “now that’s interesting.”

Why this matters. 

We knew

What happened next?

Bolin? It became Bolin’s life work.  He shepherded the climate science agenda forward with skill and patience for decades. He was a key player all through the 1970s and 1980s. First chair of the IPCC.  Thank goodness for him he died when he did, before the farce of Copenhagen and so on.

Categories
Science United Kingdom

November 14, 1977 – Met Office boss forced to think about #climate change – first interdepartmental meeting…

On this day, November 14 in 1977,  John Mason the boss of the UK Meteorological Office, was forced to concede ground in his fight against climate science.

“Mason’s calling into existence of an ad hoc group of departmental chief scientists began as an attempt to keep a measure of control, from a sceptical Met Office point of view, on a topic that other bodies, national and international, were expanding active programmes of research. It was not an attempt to solve an issue rated by the Met Office as a priority or significant problem. It was nonetheless to turn into the channel for raising the issue of anthropogenic climate change at the highest levels of government. The first gathering of chief scientists and other government experts took place on 14 November 1977 at Bracknell.”

AGAR 2015

[The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 333ppm. At time of writing it was 421ishppm- but for what it is now,well, see here for the latest.]

The context was this – 

Through the 1970s, scientists became more aware of – and alarmed about the possible long-term consequences of – carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.  But there was institutional resistance from those who dismissed it as just another lefty/hippy scare.

Why this matters. 

We need to remember that any new knowledge is seen through eyes used to old ways of seeing. And often those older eyes are right – not every “New Thing” matters.  But we have this inertia at the personal, organisational and societal level.  It will be the death of us.

What happened next?

In 1980 the Prime Minister was briefed, and dismissed it with the phrase “You want me to worry about the weather.”  That PM? Margaret Thatcher…

Categories
Australia Denial Fossil fuels

November 13, 2008 – Coal industry tries to get some ‘love’

On this day, November 13, 2008, the Australian Coal Industry launches a propaganda (that’s what “public relations” is called when our official enemies do it) campaign, dangling the promise of “NewGenCoal.”

THE coal industry feels unloved. Its polling tells it Australians have no idea what, if anything, it is doing to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions – and most say they’ve never heard of carbon capture and storage.

So the coalminers want to convert us. Today the Australian Coal Association launches a $1.5million ad campaign – and a $1million website – to tell us what it’s doing to develop what it calls “NewGenCoal”.

Association executive director Ralph Hillman predicted that carbon capture and storage would be commercially viable by 2017, and said the industry was investing $1 billion to ensure coal a future as a low-emission technology.

Colebatch, T. 2008. Coal industry reaches out for love. The Age, 13 November, p.3.

(Check how they put land-clearing and intensive agriculture AHEAD of fossil fuels!)

On this day the atmospheric PPM for carbon dioxide was roughly 385.

Now it is 419ish- but see here for the latest.

Why this matters. 

We need to remember just how much effort (you might even say energy) goes into trying to polish the turds…  How much the fossil fuel industry sector invests in trying to keep its legitimacy, and having people think well of it…

For an overview of Australian coal industry efforts, see https://theconversation.com/recycling-rules-carnival-of-coal-is-a-blast-from-the-pr-past-45819

What happened next?

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd played politics, failed to get his terrible legislation through. The climate wars. The ACA was wound up in 2013 or so I think, but the coal lobby did a reverse takeover of the Minerals Council of Australia.  My proof?  Scotty from Marketing and that lacquered lump…

Categories
Australia

November 12, 1999 – John Howard and mates say “nope” to renewables

On this day, November 12, 1999 the cabinet of Prime Minister John Howard said “nope” to a pitifully small renewables target.

A proposal by the Minister for the Environment, Senator Robert Hill, implementing the Federal Government’s target of a 2 percentage increase in renewable energy was rejected by Cabinet because of industry concerns.

“Howard’s 2 per cent target has fallen victim to industry lobbying, again,” said Dr Clive Hamilton, executive director of Canberra policy research centre, The Australia Institute.

Two weeks ago, Senator Hill put a submission to Cabinet, arguing, according to industry sources, that meeting the target be made mandatory for business.

Hordern, N. 1999. Cabinet rejects energy target. Australian Financial Review, 12 November, p.17.

[The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 368ppm. At time of writing it was 419ishppm- but for what it is now,well, see here for the latest.]

The context was this – 

In 1997 John Howard, desperate to prevent Australia having to adopt emissions reductions at the impending Kyoto Conference, had made various promises about renewable energy and so forth.  Once the moment had passed (Australia got an absurdly generous deal at Kyoto), he didn’t need to keep those promises (like any conman). And the industry lobbyists got to work, with their usual aplomb…

Why this matters. 

Australia could have been a renewable energy superpower.  Could have led the way.

What happened next?

In 2004 Howard got his fossil fuel mates to further undercut renewables in 2004, but the minutes of the “LETAG” meeting leaked. 

Categories
IPCC

November 11, 1988 – IPCC finishes its first meeting

On this day, November 9-11 in 1988 the IPCC held its first meeting (invites to be part of the IPCC had been sent out by the World Meteorological Organisation in March of 1988)

“The IPCC first met on November 9-11, 1988, in WMO offices in Geneva. At this meeting it agreed its work programme, and what its main tasks were.”

Paterson, M (1996: 43)

[The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 351ppm. At time of writing it was 416ppm- but for what it is now,well, see here for the latest.]

The context was this – 

The IPCC had been set up after bargaining and debate within the US state (James Baker, the EPA etc etc). The point was, as far as the US was concerned, was to avoid a situation where independent and uncontrollable scientists could tell stark unvarnished facts without it all getting watered down. The US didn’t want to get “bounced” into another all-encompassing treaty, as they (felt they) had been on ozone…

Why this matters. 

It doesn’t so much.  We’re toast.

What happened next?

The IPCC produced its first Assessment Report in mid-1990.  And has kept churning them out, alongside various special reports.  All good (if inevitably conservative) work.  The problem for inaction is not really with the scientists. It’s not, despite what some folks seem to need to believe.

Categories
Germany Ignored Warnings International processes

November 10, 1988 – Activists demand even steeper emissions cuts than “Toronto.” Ignored, obvs. But were right…

On this day, November 10 in 1988, a conference in Hamburg called for an even stronger target than the Toronto Conference in June of that year. However, elsewhere, the IPCC was meeting for the first time, and its (far more cautious) recommendations would prove weightier

1988 a World Congress on Climate and Development was held in Hamburg [It was November 7 to 10]. This called for carbon dioxide emissions to be reduced by ’30 per cent by the year 2000 and 50 per cent by 2015. It argued for unilateral action from the industrialised nations to start the process of change; a global ban on the production and use of CFCs covered by the Montreal Protocol by 1995 and urgent strategies for reversing deforestation and beginning afforestation programmes.

Paterson, M (1996: 35)
See the conference proceedings here – https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-642-45670-1#about-this-book

[The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 350 or soppm. At time of writing it was 416ppm- but for what it is now,well, see here for the latest.]

The context was this – 

Why this matters. 

In 1988 folks realised more or less what needed to be done.  These were not the folks in charge of the show though.  And within a couple of years the predatory delay gang had got their organisations and tactics worked out… We need to remember all this…

What happened next?

Hamburg was forgotten immediately. The international diplomacy rolled on, leading from the beginning of 1991 to the United Nations process that led in June 1992 to the UNFCCC – United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. During those crucial years, the US Administration of George HW Bush played chicken with everyone. Everyone blinked. Bush “won.”

Categories
Australia Denial United Kingdom

November 9, 1991 – Australian TV station SBS shows demented ‘”Greenhouse Conspiracy” ‘documentary’

On this day, November 9 in 1991, the Australian TV station  SBS shows ‘The Greenhouse Conspiracy’, a deluded documentary throwing shade on basic science, which had been broadcast in the UK on 12th August 1990.

The Institute of Public Affairs had bought and tried to get the ABC to show (see John Stone letter to Australian, 3 December 1990)

“This particular [program] concluded greenhouse was the product of a coalition of self-interested-researchers hungry for funds, politicians looking for a cause, journalists eager for a story.”

Cribb, J. 1991. The Greenhouse Conspiracy Effect. The Weekend Australian, 7-8 Dec, p.28

[The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was xxxppm. At time of writing it was 421ishppm- but for what it is now,well, see here for the latest.]

The context was this – 

The Australian denialists were desperately flinging whatever mud they could. This was part of it all.

Why this matters. 

The lack of action on climate is not an accident. It is not TOTALLY the fault of “those evil guys over there” – there is inertia and stupidity in human systems, sure – but the guys who tried to stop anything getting done have names, and should be at the Hague…

What happened next?

Australian governments decided vague promises (of technology, trading, hopium) were an adequate response to the threat.  Civil society never managed to get its act together. The end (literally).

Other batshit crazy “documentaries” also got made – the last one that had any real traction was “The Great Global Warming Swindle” in 2007.

Categories
Australia Cultural responses

November 8, 1989 – ALP Minister says environmentalism a “middle-class fad” – “greenies” respond…

On this day, November 8 1989, greenies respond to a Labor Minister who declared environmentalism to be a “middle class “fad.”

SYDNEY: Australian Conservation Foundation executive director Phillip Toyne hit back yesterday at the Minister for Primary Industries and Energy, John Kerin, who last week described the green movement as a middle class “fad”.

1989 Anon, 1989. ACF says Kerin’s lash at greenies was ‘fatuous’. Canberra Times, 9 November, p.7.

http://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/120858727

[The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 351ppm. At time of writing it was 416ppm- but for what it is now,well, see here for the latest.]

The context was this – 

Australians had begun to really get their heads around environmental degradation, the Greenhouse Effect (see Dan Cass’s brilliant essay on this site).  In May 1989 Tasmanian Greens had done very very well at the elections there. Labor saw the Liberals trying to outflank them on climate (true story). Business was beginning to organise its pushback.  The speech by Kerin can be seen as the beginning of the general reaction…

Why this matters. 

There’s always a pushback.  In Australia’s case, it’s gone on “successfully” for three decades. But then, the country was always a quarry with a state attached…

What happened next?

The pushback.

Categories
United States of America

November 7, 1973 – Energy security avant la Ukraine: Nixon announces “Project Independence”

On this day, November 7  in 1973 US President Richard Nixon announced “Project Independence” to increase domestic US energy production (especially from coal), in the immediate aftermath of the first Oil  Shock.

Nixon had been warned about carbon dioxide build-up, it was a known thing (see for example August 3, on this site, from 1970 “Nixon warned about climate change and icecaps melting”) But, as with Shale Gas and synfuels slightly later (under Carter), all bets are off when consumers are facing higher energy prices.

[The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 326 ish ppm. At time of writing it was 416ppm- but for what it is now, well, see here for the latest.]

Why this matters. 

The first oil shock was part of the turbulence that ended the “Glorious Thirty” – three decades of sustained economic growth in the West.  See also “The Great Acceleration”, which has continued non-stop

What happened next?

Vietnam, Watergate, Second Oil Shock etc etc etc.

Categories
Australia

November 6, 2009 – Kevin Rudd playing politics with the climate

On this day, November 6 in 2009, Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd gave a speech at the Lowy Institute about climate change, ahead of his second go at getting legislation through Parliament, and with the Copenhagen Conference coming up.  And he enjoyed poking Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull in the chest

“The clock is ticking for the planet, but [the] vested interests at work are simply too great”

Rudd had not really done very much talking about climate change over the previous two years (except when a policy document was landing). A February 2010 article by journo Peter Hartcher  claimed Rudd’s climate silence had been deliberate, since it meant the media would be attacking Liberals a lot. Who knows. Certainly Rudd could have been out there explaining the basics and explaining the danger, instead of occasional soundbites. 

[The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was xxxppm. At time of writing it was 416ppm- but for what it is now,well, see here for the latest.]

The context was this – 

Turnbull had made false accusations about Rudd and corruption a few months previously (“Godwin Gretch”). Rudd was enjoying the Liberals and Nationals fighting each other, weakening Turnbull.

Why this matters. 

No issue – even the end of the world – is off limits to politicians engaged in their usual positioning and fighting. An active civil society might have kept a lid on that, a bit, I guess. We’re so toast.

What happened next?

Turnbull got replaced by Tony Abbott.  Rudd’s legislation failed, (and yes, the Greens didn’t vote for it), Copenhagen was a disaster and Rudd didn’t have the spine and good sense to do what his advisers were begging him to do – call a double dissolution election about climate change.  He then pissed off Julia Gillard one time too many, she rolled him and…. Oh, it’s so exhausting to recount.