Forty nine years ago, on this day, November 1, 1974, a senior Civil Servant wrote to the chief scientific advisor about climate research
“In 1974, the Met Office had marked an expanding interest in climate by starting a working party on world climatology, ‘with specific emphasis on climatic change’, under J.S. Sawyer, the Met Office’s director of research” CAB 164/1379. ‘Climatology’, Smith to Warren, 1 November 1974. Sawyer had written tentatively on anthropogenic global warming in 1972: J.S. Sawyer, ‘Man-made carbon dioxide and the “greenhouse” effect’, Nature 239 (1972), 23-26.
Agar 2015
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 330ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures.
The context was that “climatic” change – whether caused by man or natural fluctuations – was on the agenda of those who had to worry about the future as part of their day jobs. National Security Adviser and noted war criminal Henry Kissinger had made a speech to the UN General Assembly (April 15, 1974), the CIA weighed in with some food shortage. The Limits to Growth people were still around. And, of course, the oil shock was doing very interesting things to people’s economies and livelihoods. So the idea of setting up a working group to look at climatic conditions was not surprising.
[It would be interesting to know what the terms of reference particularly but I then would need to do that I wouldn’t need to go and look at the archives myself.]
What I think we can learn from this is that the wheels of bureaucracy grind – it takes time to get anything to happen. And always, always watch for the terms of reference.
What happened next
Eventually, by various means, and against Met Office resistance, an interdepartmental committee on climate started meeting in 1978. It produced a report, which Margaret Thatcher then ignored…
What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.