Forty four years ago, on this day, August 24th, 1981, a scintillating academic paper was received…
Overlapping effect of atmospheric H2O, CO2 and O3 on the CO2 radiative effect
Wei-Chyung Wang &P. Barry Ryan
Pages 81-91 | Received 24 Aug 1981, Accepted 02 Aug 1982, Published online: 18 Jan 2017
The effect of overlapping of atmospheric H2O, CO2 and O3 absorption bands on the radiation budget perturbation caused by CO2 doubling is investigated. Since the effect depends on the amount of gases in the atmosphere as well as on the strength of the absorption bands, we examine the effect associated with the variation of gas abundance using a narrow band representation for the absorption bands. This band representation allows for the absorption band structure and thus accounts for the correlation of the spectral feature of the absorbing gases.
It is found that the presence of H2O and O3 has a relatively small influence on the CO2-induced perturbation of both solar and thermal radiation in the stratosphere. However, in troposphere and surface, the overlapping effect appears to be quite significant and changes the vertical distribution of the CO2-induced radiation energy perturbation. For example, in the infrared, the effect is to reduce the effectiveness for CO2 to emit and in the mean time increases the tropospheric absorption of downward thermal flux from the stratosphere due to CO2 increase; the net effect of the overlapping of gases is to increase the tropospheric warming and decrease the surface warming caused by CO2 increase. It is also found that the overlapping effect exhibits strong seasonal and latitudinal variations due primarily to variations in atmospheric H2O.
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 340ppm. As of 2025, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.
The broader context was that by the early 1980s there was a noticeable uptick in the number of scientific papers examining the likely consequences of a lot more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Because we were putting a lot more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, and showed no signs of wanting to stop, or even thinking that stopping might be a good idea.
The specific context was – aftermath of the First World Climate Conference, the Global 2000 report etc…
What I think we can learn from this is that we knew plenty, almost 50 years ago.
What happened next – it would be 1988 before the issue “broke through.”
What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.
Also on this day:
August 24, 1989 – a Sydney council takes greenhouse suggestions on-board (or says it will).
August 24, 1992 – Bureaucrats kill greenie-business consensus on climate action – All Our Yesterdays
August 24, 1994 – first signs of a split in the anti-climate action business coalition…