Author: drmarchudson

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United Kingdom

November 17, 1968 – UK national newspaper flags carbon dioxide danger…

On this day, November 17 in 1968, the Observer ran a final story in its pollution inquiry,noting that “By the end of this century, we may have released enough carbon dioxide to raise the atmospheric temperature by two degrees centigrade.” [to be clear – this was a big overestimate, at least in the short-term]

17 Nov 1968 Observer article John Davy – significant mention of carbon dioxide greenhouse 

[The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 323ppm. At time of writing it was 419ishppm- but for what it is now,well, see here for the latest.]

The context was this – 

By the late 1960s anyone with a smattering of scientific knowledge could see the trends. It wasn’t rocket science. You just needed eyes in your head and the willingness to think about uncomfortable futures.

Why this matters. 

We do not lack knowledge. We lack courage

What happened next?

From 1968 to 1972 a lot of international meetings and warm words.  

Categories
Australia Carbon Pricing

 November 16, 1994 – Industry lobbyists trot out “sky will fall” argument against emissions cuts. Again. Of course. As ever.

On this day, November 16 in 1994, in the midst of another flare up in the “should we put a price on carbon?” battles, the Aluminium industry released more “evidence”.

THE Commonwealth’s current targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions will cost the economy almost $200 billion over the next decade, wiping out Australia’s aluminium industry in the process, a new study released yesterday claims.

Dwyer, M. 1994. Emission cuts ‘to kill aluminium industry’. The Australian Financial Review, 17 November, p.13.

[The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 359ish ppm. At time of writing it was 419ishppm- but for what it is now,well, see here for the latest.]

The context was this – 

The fossil fuel lobby and its mates were determined to kill any carbon taxes/prices at birth. This was part of the effort.  Basically, find an economist willing to produce a “report” that shows the sky will fall, that the economy will collapse and we will all be reduced to living in mud huts and eating each other’s corpses if so much as a molecule less of coal/oil/gas is extracted.  Time the release of the “report”, give it to your tame mates in the media, then get tame mates in Parliament to quote the report and newspaper coverage. Bish bosh…

Why this matters. 

Think where we might have got to with political leaders with spine!!  We might be as much as 10 per cent less doomed than we are now!!

What happened next?

No carbon tax.  A carbon price in Australia didn’t kick in until July 2013. And then was killed off a year later.  Ha ha ha ha .

Categories
Science Scientists Sweden

November 15, 1958 – Academic Paper on “Changes in Carbon Dioxide Content of Atmosphere and Sea Due to Fossil Fuel Combustion” submitted

On this day, November 15, in 1958 one of the first papers about, well, our current problem, was submitted for publication.

1958 Bolin and Eriksson’s classic paper         “Changes in the Carbon Dioxide Content of the Atmosphere and Sea Due to Fossil Fuel Combustion” submitted.

[The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 315ppm. At time of writing it was 421ishppm- but for what it is now,well, see here for the latest.]

The context was this – 

Through the 1950s, American and Swedish scientists (and others) were looking at carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere and saying to themselves “now that’s interesting.”

Why this matters. 

We knew

What happened next?

Bolin? It became Bolin’s life work.  He shepherded the climate science agenda forward with skill and patience for decades. He was a key player all through the 1970s and 1980s. First chair of the IPCC.  Thank goodness for him he died when he did, before the farce of Copenhagen and so on.

Categories
Science United Kingdom

November 14, 1977 – Met Office boss forced to think about #climate change – first interdepartmental meeting…

On this day, November 14 in 1977,  John Mason the boss of the UK Meteorological Office, was forced to concede ground in his fight against climate science.

“Mason’s calling into existence of an ad hoc group of departmental chief scientists began as an attempt to keep a measure of control, from a sceptical Met Office point of view, on a topic that other bodies, national and international, were expanding active programmes of research. It was not an attempt to solve an issue rated by the Met Office as a priority or significant problem. It was nonetheless to turn into the channel for raising the issue of anthropogenic climate change at the highest levels of government. The first gathering of chief scientists and other government experts took place on 14 November 1977 at Bracknell.”

AGAR 2015

[The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 333ppm. At time of writing it was 421ishppm- but for what it is now,well, see here for the latest.]

The context was this – 

Through the 1970s, scientists became more aware of – and alarmed about the possible long-term consequences of – carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.  But there was institutional resistance from those who dismissed it as just another lefty/hippy scare.

Why this matters. 

We need to remember that any new knowledge is seen through eyes used to old ways of seeing. And often those older eyes are right – not every “New Thing” matters.  But we have this inertia at the personal, organisational and societal level.  It will be the death of us.

What happened next?

In 1980 the Prime Minister was briefed, and dismissed it with the phrase “You want me to worry about the weather.”  That PM? Margaret Thatcher…

Categories
Australia Denial Fossil fuels

November 13, 2008 – Coal industry tries to get some ‘love’

On this day, November 13, 2008, the Australian Coal Industry launches a propaganda (that’s what “public relations” is called when our official enemies do it) campaign, dangling the promise of “NewGenCoal.”

THE coal industry feels unloved. Its polling tells it Australians have no idea what, if anything, it is doing to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions – and most say they’ve never heard of carbon capture and storage.

So the coalminers want to convert us. Today the Australian Coal Association launches a $1.5million ad campaign – and a $1million website – to tell us what it’s doing to develop what it calls “NewGenCoal”.

Association executive director Ralph Hillman predicted that carbon capture and storage would be commercially viable by 2017, and said the industry was investing $1 billion to ensure coal a future as a low-emission technology.

Colebatch, T. 2008. Coal industry reaches out for love. The Age, 13 November, p.3.

(Check how they put land-clearing and intensive agriculture AHEAD of fossil fuels!)

On this day the atmospheric PPM for carbon dioxide was roughly 385.

Now it is 419ish- but see here for the latest.

Why this matters. 

We need to remember just how much effort (you might even say energy) goes into trying to polish the turds…  How much the fossil fuel industry sector invests in trying to keep its legitimacy, and having people think well of it…

For an overview of Australian coal industry efforts, see https://theconversation.com/recycling-rules-carnival-of-coal-is-a-blast-from-the-pr-past-45819

What happened next?

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd played politics, failed to get his terrible legislation through. The climate wars. The ACA was wound up in 2013 or so I think, but the coal lobby did a reverse takeover of the Minerals Council of Australia.  My proof?  Scotty from Marketing and that lacquered lump…

Categories
Australia

November 12, 1999 – John Howard and mates say “nope” to renewables

On this day, November 12, 1999 the cabinet of Prime Minister John Howard said “nope” to a pitifully small renewables target.

A proposal by the Minister for the Environment, Senator Robert Hill, implementing the Federal Government’s target of a 2 percentage increase in renewable energy was rejected by Cabinet because of industry concerns.

“Howard’s 2 per cent target has fallen victim to industry lobbying, again,” said Dr Clive Hamilton, executive director of Canberra policy research centre, The Australia Institute.

Two weeks ago, Senator Hill put a submission to Cabinet, arguing, according to industry sources, that meeting the target be made mandatory for business.

Hordern, N. 1999. Cabinet rejects energy target. Australian Financial Review, 12 November, p.17.

[The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 368ppm. At time of writing it was 419ishppm- but for what it is now,well, see here for the latest.]

The context was this – 

In 1997 John Howard, desperate to prevent Australia having to adopt emissions reductions at the impending Kyoto Conference, had made various promises about renewable energy and so forth.  Once the moment had passed (Australia got an absurdly generous deal at Kyoto), he didn’t need to keep those promises (like any conman). And the industry lobbyists got to work, with their usual aplomb…

Why this matters. 

Australia could have been a renewable energy superpower.  Could have led the way.

What happened next?

In 2004 Howard got his fossil fuel mates to further undercut renewables in 2004, but the minutes of the “LETAG” meeting leaked. 

Categories
IPCC

November 11, 1988 – IPCC finishes its first meeting

On this day, November 9-11 in 1988 the IPCC held its first meeting (invites to be part of the IPCC had been sent out by the World Meteorological Organisation in March of 1988)

“The IPCC first met on November 9-11, 1988, in WMO offices in Geneva. At this meeting it agreed its work programme, and what its main tasks were.”

Paterson, M (1996: 43)

[The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 351ppm. At time of writing it was 416ppm- but for what it is now,well, see here for the latest.]

The context was this – 

The IPCC had been set up after bargaining and debate within the US state (James Baker, the EPA etc etc). The point was, as far as the US was concerned, was to avoid a situation where independent and uncontrollable scientists could tell stark unvarnished facts without it all getting watered down. The US didn’t want to get “bounced” into another all-encompassing treaty, as they (felt they) had been on ozone…

Why this matters. 

It doesn’t so much.  We’re toast.

What happened next?

The IPCC produced its first Assessment Report in mid-1990.  And has kept churning them out, alongside various special reports.  All good (if inevitably conservative) work.  The problem for inaction is not really with the scientists. It’s not, despite what some folks seem to need to believe.

Categories
Germany Ignored Warnings International processes

November 10, 1988 – Activists demand even steeper emissions cuts than “Toronto.” Ignored, obvs. But were right…

On this day, November 10 in 1988, a conference in Hamburg called for an even stronger target than the Toronto Conference in June of that year. However, elsewhere, the IPCC was meeting for the first time, and its (far more cautious) recommendations would prove weightier

1988 a World Congress on Climate and Development was held in Hamburg [It was November 7 to 10]. This called for carbon dioxide emissions to be reduced by ’30 per cent by the year 2000 and 50 per cent by 2015. It argued for unilateral action from the industrialised nations to start the process of change; a global ban on the production and use of CFCs covered by the Montreal Protocol by 1995 and urgent strategies for reversing deforestation and beginning afforestation programmes.

Paterson, M (1996: 35)
See the conference proceedings here – https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-642-45670-1#about-this-book

[The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 350 or soppm. At time of writing it was 416ppm- but for what it is now,well, see here for the latest.]

The context was this – 

Why this matters. 

In 1988 folks realised more or less what needed to be done.  These were not the folks in charge of the show though.  And within a couple of years the predatory delay gang had got their organisations and tactics worked out… We need to remember all this…

What happened next?

Hamburg was forgotten immediately. The international diplomacy rolled on, leading from the beginning of 1991 to the United Nations process that led in June 1992 to the UNFCCC – United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. During those crucial years, the US Administration of George HW Bush played chicken with everyone. Everyone blinked. Bush “won.”

Categories
Australia Denial United Kingdom

November 9, 1991 – Australian TV station SBS shows demented ‘”Greenhouse Conspiracy” ‘documentary’

On this day, November 9 in 1991, the Australian TV station  SBS shows ‘The Greenhouse Conspiracy’, a deluded documentary throwing shade on basic science, which had been broadcast in the UK on 12th August 1990.

The Institute of Public Affairs had bought and tried to get the ABC to show (see John Stone letter to Australian, 3 December 1990)

“This particular [program] concluded greenhouse was the product of a coalition of self-interested-researchers hungry for funds, politicians looking for a cause, journalists eager for a story.”

Cribb, J. 1991. The Greenhouse Conspiracy Effect. The Weekend Australian, 7-8 Dec, p.28

[The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was xxxppm. At time of writing it was 421ishppm- but for what it is now,well, see here for the latest.]

The context was this – 

The Australian denialists were desperately flinging whatever mud they could. This was part of it all.

Why this matters. 

The lack of action on climate is not an accident. It is not TOTALLY the fault of “those evil guys over there” – there is inertia and stupidity in human systems, sure – but the guys who tried to stop anything getting done have names, and should be at the Hague…

What happened next?

Australian governments decided vague promises (of technology, trading, hopium) were an adequate response to the threat.  Civil society never managed to get its act together. The end (literally).

Other batshit crazy “documentaries” also got made – the last one that had any real traction was “The Great Global Warming Swindle” in 2007.

Categories
Australia Cultural responses

November 8, 1989 – ALP Minister says environmentalism a “middle-class fad” – “greenies” respond…

On this day, November 8 1989, greenies respond to a Labor Minister who declared environmentalism to be a “middle class “fad.”

SYDNEY: Australian Conservation Foundation executive director Phillip Toyne hit back yesterday at the Minister for Primary Industries and Energy, John Kerin, who last week described the green movement as a middle class “fad”.

1989 Anon, 1989. ACF says Kerin’s lash at greenies was ‘fatuous’. Canberra Times, 9 November, p.7.

http://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/120858727

[The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 351ppm. At time of writing it was 416ppm- but for what it is now,well, see here for the latest.]

The context was this – 

Australians had begun to really get their heads around environmental degradation, the Greenhouse Effect (see Dan Cass’s brilliant essay on this site).  In May 1989 Tasmanian Greens had done very very well at the elections there. Labor saw the Liberals trying to outflank them on climate (true story). Business was beginning to organise its pushback.  The speech by Kerin can be seen as the beginning of the general reaction…

Why this matters. 

There’s always a pushback.  In Australia’s case, it’s gone on “successfully” for three decades. But then, the country was always a quarry with a state attached…

What happened next?

The pushback.