There’ll be “waiting for the other shoe to drop” the phoney war, the Rocky Horror, “antici….pation.”
We’re in this phase at the minute, like the 1939-40 phoney war, where we all know it’s coming but somehow think it won’t be That Bad. People are doing “disaster porn”, circulating stories of deaths foretold etc,
plaintive appeals for governments etc to plan and to minimise the coming damage. These appeals will be, largely, ignored.
Then there’ll be the “whatever happens happens” (sturm and drang, thunder and lightning, very very frightening)
And if it is as bad, then it’ll be “disaster of the week” every week (especially if there are White People in Peril). Hawaii getting bulls-eyed by hurricanes is one early example of this, if/when it happens.
And then we’ll be in it, and there’ll be floods (see what I did there, har har) of videos.
The fake sharks will make an appearance.
Then, if it’s as bad as the boffins say, then there will be
disaster relief appeals
disaster relief appeal scams
Denunciations of coloniality, settler colonialism (which actually have a point, given the history of it all).
If it’s for some reason not that bad, some of the “El Nino minimizers”, climate deniers, lukewarmers will try to tell us “hysterical media”, “hysterical science”.
Then there’ll be the aftermath, the clean-up, the accounting. (“She should have died hereafter. Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow blah blah .”)
Lives will be ended, ecosystems will be radically altered (and will not ‘bounce back’). So much will be lost. It will all get pinned on El Nino, in an effort to avoid talking about the sweaty elephant in the room, carbon dioxide build-up
Fwiw, I think one of the things El Nino will destroy is the illusion that some (vaguely defined) previous era of stability/growth is going to return if we just do x, y, and z.
Twelve years ago, on this day, September 26th, 2014 Tony McMichael RIP
In later years, and particularly after returning to Australia in 2001, he worked on the health effects of climate change.[9] He had always been influenced by ideas of anthropogenic crises, first population growth, and latterly of general planetary overload.[10] He argued that a warming world would have significant negative effects on human health. He said “Climate change is not just about disruptions to the local economy or loss of jobs or loss of iconic species. It’s actually about weakening the foundations of the life support systems that we depend on as a human species.”[1] His team showed that tens of thousands of people were dying each year from climate-induced flooding, malnutrition, and infectious diseases.[11]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tony_McMichael
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 399ppm. As of 2026, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.
McMichael grew up in Adelaide, and graduated in medicine from the University of Adelaide (1961–1967). As a student, he spent a summer volunteering at a leprosy colony in New Delhi, India where he saw how patients were treated as social outcasts suffering from the stigma of a disfiguring disease although they were no longer contagious. The following year, whilst on a similar service trip to Papua New Guinea he met social sciences student Judith Healy, whom he married shortly after graduation. They had 2 children. He was elected president of the National Union of Students, based in Melbourne, in 1968.[1]
After 18 months in general practice, he was invited to become the PhD student of Professor Basil Hetzel at the new department of social and preventive medicine, Monash University in Victoria, graduating in 1972. Studying factors that influenced the mental health of undergraduate students, he gained skills in epidemiological research. He also showed early evidence of independent inquiry informed by reading the works of thinkers such as Paul R. Ehrlich and Anne H. Ehrlich who questioned the capacity of the Earth to support a growing world population with increasing consumption of resources.[2]
He then worked at the School of Public Health at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, studying the health of workers in the tyre industry. Returning to Australia he worked for CSIRO and then became the Foundation Chair in Occupational and Environmental Health at the University of Adelaide from 1986 until 1994. From 1994 to 2001, he was the Professor of Epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, before returning to Australia to follow Prof Bob Douglas as the director of the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health[3] at the Australian National University in Canberra. Most recently he held an NHMRC Australia Fellowship at the ANU, where he also ran the Environment, Climate, and Health research program. McMichael was chair of think tank The Australia Institute.[4]
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What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.
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Sixteen years ago, on this day, September 26th, 2010,
Climate change activists in Australia associated with Rising Tide attached themselves to equipment inside the world’s largest coal port, in Newcastle, Australia, shutting down its operations, the terminal operator and protesters stated. The protestors stopped operations at all three terminals operated by Port Waratah Coal Services, which typically runs a continuous operation, a company spokesman told the Reuters news agency. “All operations have temporarily stopped,” the spokesman said, after about 50 protesters took action at dawn on Sunday morning. Some attached themselves to loaders and machinery inside the facility, while others demonstrated with banners.[59] News reports stated that two were arrested during the protests.[60]
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 390ppm. As of 2026, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.
The broader context was there had been efforts to shut down power stations and coal export ports before (and have been since).
Thespecificcontext was this coming just as the Gillard government was taking power, not that that was a factor for the protesters.
What I think we can learn from this is that, as per Mario Savio, people do try to throw their bodies on the gears of the machine, but the machine has sharp teeth and it chews them up and spits them out,
What happened next more valiant protests – and the exports climb, the emissions climb and the concentrations climb.
xxx
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If you want to get involved, let me know.
If you want to invite me on your podcast, that would boost my ego and probably improve the currently pitiful hit-rate on this site (the two are not-unrelated).
Sixteen years ago, on this day, September 25th, 2010,
BIG business has warned Labor it will escalate a public campaign against the federal government to protect the economy from being damaged by vested interests and ill-considered policy formulation in the new parliament.
A range of chief executives, chairmen and directors canvassed by The Weekend Australian said business leaders had a basic responsibility to step up to fill the policy vacuum left by the unstable political situation.
Kitney, D. and Hepworth, A. 2010. Corporate leaders stepping up. The Australian, 25 September, p1.
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 390ppm. As of 2026, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.
The broader context was that at the big end of town, the miners usually get what they want, especially under Liberal governments, but they sometimes have to work a little bit harder under nominally left wing but actually centrist governments, i.e. Labor.
Thespecificcontext was that there had been a federal election, which resulted, unusually, in a hung parliament, i.e. neither of the major parties had the numbers to form a government, and so the situation was politically very fluid and unpredictable, and business could see that it might not get as much of what it wanted as it otherwise might, so here we are. This is democracy, apparently.
What I think we can learn from this is that money rules and expects to rule, and occasionally reminds everyone of this in public.
What happened next Gillard formed a minority government, the price of which was carbon pricing. She introduced the legislation, could have done better presentationally, but it wouldn’t have mattered in the long term, because the Murdoch media was gunning for her. It was an extraordinary time amidst all of this. There was the fact that she was the first and so far only female Prime Minister in Australia, which is pretty damn misogynistic at the best of times.
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If you want to invite me on your podcast, that would boost my ego and probably improve the currently pitiful hit-rate on this site (the two are not-unrelated).
Thirty six years ago, on this day, September 25th, 1990,
Miners write letter to Alan Griffiths, Resources Minister
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 354ppm. As of 2026, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.
The broader context was that the settler colony known as Australia had always been extractivist and relying on export earnings. This used to come from agriculture and sheep. By the 1980s this had turned to minerals exports, coal, iron ore, uranium, and so on.
Thespecificcontext was that the Ecologically Sustainable Development policy process was about to start. This had been a quid pro quo between the Hawke Labor government for tacit support and preferences from greenie groups ahead of the 1990 federal election. The big end of town and also the miners union was deeply nervous that Ecologically Sustainable Development might mean some constraints on what they wanted to do, permission for projects and jobs available. This was a real fear, given what had happened in 1989 (or the perception of it) around the pulp mill in Tasmania, etc. So here you see the unions trying to remind the resources minister that there’s going to be a fight and they expect him to fight for them.
What I think we can learn from this is the species is gonna respond like this. Or rather, maybe it could have been different, but it wasn’t and here we are.
What happened next ESD revealed the intellectual bankruptcy of the fossil fuel interests. They assumed that the whole process would be them dictating their recommendations to the chair of the individual working groups, but it turned out that they didn’t have any ideas or answers, and the environmentalists ran rings around them. Ultimately, however, the ESD was being kneecapped by late 1991 and when Keating took over from Hawke, the whole thing was basically thrown in the bin.
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What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.
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If you want to invite me on your podcast, that would boost my ego and probably improve the currently pitiful hit-rate on this site (the two are not-unrelated).
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 311ppm. As of 2026, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.
The broader context was that Gilbert Plass had made a splash in 1953 and The New York Times was picking up on something that other papers had already covered, John Hutton’s speech, which you can read more about here.
What I think we can learn from this is that the New York Times was hungry for content and would pick up on what other newspapers had been reporting.
What happened next the Times kept reporting in 1956 and then under Walter Sullivan all through into the 1980s. The Times editorialised about the greenhouse effect, as we then called it in 1981 ran op-eds, and then kept running stories from 1988 onwards. We really cannot say we were not warned.
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What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.
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If you want to invite me on your podcast, that would boost my ego and probably improve the currently pitiful hit-rate on this site (the two are not-unrelated).
The latest commentary on the CO2 Newsletters comes from my friend Susan, who was ‘elfdock’ on Bluesky until very recently. It’s brilliant.
I was born in 1953, post WW2 years. Society was still very conservative, religion was big. Liberal politician Robert Gordon Menzies was Prime Minister from 1939 to 1941 and from 1949 to 1966. The free-thinking Beatniks, who rejected the conformity and consumerism of mainstream society, were fading out, to be replaced by the Hippies. That was my generation. We had had a gutsful of war and religion and rejected both. My older sister, a beatnik, was a student at Melbourne University, and living in Carlton. She took me to the Vietnam Moratorium rallies in 1965 and onwards. I was very fortunate to have such an intellectual sister, she sent me good books to read. Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring, John Griffin’s Black Like Me, Jack Kerouac’s On the Road and Dharma Bums, among others.
I was living in Balaclava in 1971 when I first saw a visitor wearing a climate change T-shirt. It had a cartoon type drawing on it of a sweating Earth. The words around it said, ‘Mother Earth’s A Bitch And She’s On Heat’. Another time he wore a T-shirt that had a very polluted looking Earth, with an onion line of business men in suits and bowler hats that said, ‘Stop Fucking Mother Earth’. I’m really sorry in hindsight I did not ask him about them, but they certainly stuck in my memory.
My two daughters grew up going to rallies in the mid and late 1970s. Anti Uranium rallies, Stop The Franklin Dam Rallies. They were huge, 100,000 plus people, probably many more, not accurately reported by the MSM. I met David Bellamy, by accident, while we were walking through the Botanical Gardens after one of these rallies. Sadly he did not talk with us about climate change, because he was a denier. Instead he lectured us about not letting the government close down the free Dental Hospital. While free dental care was important, it was not as important as climate change. At this time Bellamy was one of the best known faces on tv. If he had talked about climate change at the rally, I’m sure many people would have listened and acted to stop it. It was a huge opportunity we missed to save life on Earth, including us.
I could never understand why the government failed to act to stop climate change. When I saw the ‘Mother Earth’s A Bitch And She’s On Heat’ T-shirt in 1971 I didn’t fully realise what I was looking at. Apparently there was a professor teaching his students about climate change at Monash University. If he knew, then I’m sure the government knew. To me, it was logical that the government should have educated us, as it did later, with the hole in the ozone layer. But our government was bought and owned by the fossil fuel industry, we didn’t have a hope in hell. And hell is certainly on the way in the near future.
Reading Barbat’s 1981 newsletter, was an eye opener to how governments and scientists refused to act on the CO2 problem. Instead of stopping the use of fossil fuels and switching to renewables, they decided to wait and see until there might be an effect in early 2010/20. By then it was too late to do anything, except, perhaps, mitigate some of the worst effects for coming generations. In 2026 some of the largest fossil fuel projects were given approval in Australia. Many of the young people say they will not be having children because of climate change.
I felt astonished by what Barbat wrote. The level of stupidity by the governments running our only life support system failed miserably. That emails of climate scientists were hacked, selectively edited and then printed in the gutter press, (especially Murdoch), driving some scientist to near suicide, horrifying. Choosing to breed animals that could withstand climate change, instead of stopping it, stupid. Genetically modifying, and taking out illegal patents on seeds stolen from arid countries, anything was better than treating our biosphere with respect.
The First Nations Peoples here have lived with, and in, their environment for 50,000 years at least. They have nurtured and been part of it, instead of thinking of themselves as superior to it. Western people call them ‘primitive’. Since the Industrial Revolution in about 1750 we have almost managed to destroy the entire environmental system that supports life on our planet. The Fafocene is well and truly on the way.
Seventy years ago, on this day, September 24th, 1956, the Baltimore Sun ran a p.24 article on “Carbon Dioxide Weather.”
It began “A growing group of American physicists is wondering whether the world’s warming up spell since 1900 may not become permanent, due to man’s own activities.”
It’s mostly based on Gilbert Plass, but also this
“Dr Joseph Kaplan, also formerly at the Hopkins and now at UCLA points out that the rate [of adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere] is increasingly steeply with world industrialisation; he thinks the net addition may be as much as 175,000,000,000 tons in twenty years.”
FWIW, the amount of carbon dioxide being tipped into the air in 1976 was…18bn tonnes…
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 312ppm. As of 2026, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.
The broader context was that there had been some awareness of the world warming up, and also the various theories that might explain it. However, there was no real certainty, and there still wasn’t in ‘56. But what you had since 1953 was Gilbert Plass and others talking about carbon dioxide build-up as a likely reason.
Thespecificcontext was that the year before Fleming’s newspaper article John Hutton, the general electric engineer, had given a talk, which had been picked up by many American newspapers, Gilbert Plass was publishing and also Roger Revelle was using the possibility of carbon dioxide build up as a way of getting money out of the International Geophysical Year Fund funders, i.e. the US taxpayer. This was the Baltimore Sun, so Fleming had access to Plass, who was at Johns Hopkins – or had been – and the Baltimore Sun had covered Plass’s 1953 talks, so it would have been in the morgue.
What I think we can learn from this is that from the mid 1950s articles about carbon dioxide build up were appearing in newspapers, this was not a state secret.
What happened next Fleming wrote some more articles. The IGY happened. Carbon dioxide build-up was talked about in the 1950s. People knew.
On this topic, you might like these other posts on All Our Yesterdays
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What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.
If you want to get involved, let me know.
If you want to invite me on your podcast, that would boost my ego and probably improve the currently pitiful hit-rate on this site (the two are not-unrelated).
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 312ppm. As of 2026, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.
The broader context was that there had been some awareness of the world warming up, and also the various theories that might explain it. However, there was no real certainty, and there still wasn’t in ‘56. But what you had since 1953 was Gilbert Plass and others talking about carbon dioxide build-up as a likely reason.
Thespecificcontext was that the year before Fleming’s newspaper article John Hutton, the general electric engineer, had given a talk, which had been picked up by many American newspapers, Gilbert Plass was publishing and also Roger Revelle was using the possibility of carbon dioxide build up as a way of getting money out of the International Geophysical Year Fund funders, i.e. the US taxpayer. This was the Baltimore Sun, so Fleming had access to Plass, who was at Johns Hopkins – or had been – and the Baltimore Sun had covered Plass’s 1953 talks, so it would have been in the morgue.
What I think we can learn from this is that from the mid 1950s articles about carbon dioxide build up were appearing in newspapers, this was not a state secret.
What happened next Fleming wrote some more articles. The IGY happened. Carbon dioxide build-up was talked about in the 1950s. People knew.
On this topic, you might like these other posts on All Our Yesterdays
Xx
References
xx
You can see the chronological list of All Our Yesterdays “on this day” posts here.
What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.
If you want to get involved, let me know.
If you want to invite me on your podcast, that would boost my ego and probably improve the currently pitiful hit-rate on this site (the two are not-unrelated).
Every Sunday, at least until at least the end of October – I am doing a weekly “El Nino” digest (first onehere) – forreasons. Some of the stuff I encounter just has to be blogged, so every Wednesday I will put up something, usually based on something I’ve encountered while looking at stuff that does or doesn’t go in the digest. Below is the first.
Whatever does and doesn’t happen in the course of 2027, whether the physical/political/economic impacts are beyond belief or merely really bad, I think that 2027 will spell the end of an illusion some of us have been Labor/Labouring under – that sooner or later we will return to the “good old days” of stable economic growth – a chicken in every pot and some sunny uplands.
As someone said, (it may have been Naomi Klein and Astra Taylor on the Chris Hayes podcast, or maybe it was someone on the American Prestige podcast, idk – there was a time that the fash would promise their followers good things, material things – things that they’d looted from, say, the Jews, or there would the promise of farming land that had been stolen from the Slavs. But now, not so much – it’s just straight displaced hate and “owning the libs”.
FWIW, IMO, they don’t need to promise anything else, because organised labour big enough to force them into those promises? (As per Anton Jager, the subject of a perceptive book review in the early September Private Eye, are they really fascists, if you define fascism as a response to a credible threat of socialism?)
Meanwhile, as far as UK readers are concerned, it might be the end of mangoes on Christmas Day (2). In an Observer article, the hack interviews a couple of people in a position to know about supply chains for discretionary food spending in the UK.
Julian Marks, the chief executive of Barfoots, which supplies retailers with vegetables ranging from sweetcorn to aubergines, said: “We run relay races around the world to ensure consistent availability and quality of produce.” Yields of asparagus from Peru are now down 25%, Marks said, and the vegetables are of poorer quality. “They have less shelf life because the plants are more stressed.”
and
Marks said: “The sense of abundance that we have as consumers today… the removal of seasonality from people’s minds, the idea that you can have a mango on New Year’s Day – that’s something that could disappear.”
And
Christian Jaccarini, economist at the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit, said “The inflationary pressures are still there, but much of it is being absorbed upstream for now, meaning this wave of inflation has likely been delayed rather than avoided.”
What this put me in mind of was Joanna Blythman’s (not Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall!)’s concept of Permanent Global Summertime. You have to be my age or older to remember when seasons were reflected on supermarket shelves (nd I only just remember it, and that’s probably because I lived in the end of a supply chain – Adelaide. If I’d been in the metropole, maybe I’d need to be a few years older still.)
Anyway, the point is that we “conquered” the seasons, or rather, we gave ourselves the illusion of having conquered the seasons. How did we do it? We used congealed sunlight from millions of years ago. We fed that into the tanks of metal birds of our own invention and flew farm produce around the world. There aren’t many songs about this, strangely, but I am fond of T. V. Smith’s effort his song “Free World” from his impossibly good album “March of the Giants” –
“you can force it drug it and exhaust it, pick the fruit of the rape of the land”
It is going to become implausible, impossible to sustain Permanent Global Summertime quite soon (3).
Re law 2 (“Everything must go somewhere”) clock this –
from a January 1963 Popular Science, sent to me by a good friend.
It really captures the assumptions of the 60s that you could just dispose of your waste, however, and the earth was so big that it would absorb whatever you did to it.
And the first successful push against that was Rachel Carson in 1962 with her Silent Spring, and of course she was denounced as a communist and a lesbian and hysterical and all of the above.
The Malthusian “resources will run out and we will starve” fears gave way, in the 1970s and 1980s, to the “we will overwhelm the capacity of the planet to act as a garbage dump.” – Ozone, Climate, and here we are.
Forty three years ago, on this day, September 23rd, 1983,
Forty-four members of the Royal Society, the world’s oldest scientific academy, have protested the election of Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher as a fellow, claiming her cost-cutting government has damaged science in Britain.
A spokesman for the 968-member academy confirmed press reports Friday that 44 fellows, including six Nobel laureates, wrote the society’s president, Sir Andrew Huxley, saying the Conservative prime minister’s election to the academy implied “support of a political position.”
Anon, 1983. Royal Society Members Protest Thatcher’s Admission. The Associated Press, September 23,
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 343ppm. As of 2026, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.
The broader context was the Royal Society has been around for literally centuries.
Thespecificcontext was was that Margaret Thatcher had some training as a chemist, and it was politically astute in the context of trying to keep the science budget protected to offer her membership of, or fellowship, or whatever you want to call it, of the Royal Society, not on the basis of any great scientific accomplishment, but just from straightforward emotional bribe around politics viewpoint.
What I think we can learn from this is that honorary fellowship membership, whatever, of these organisations is contested.
What happened next Thatcher got the bribe. In 1988 gave a speech about the science budget, but also about climate change at Fishmongers Hall.
In 2006 the Royal Society wrote an unusual public letter telling Exxon to knock it off with the climate denial.
Of late the controversy has been around Elon Musk and whether his fellowship of the Royal Society should be removed for, well, countless reasons.
On this topic, you might like these other posts on All Our Yesterdays
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What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.
If you want to get involved, let me know.
If you want to invite me on your podcast, that would boost my ego and probably improve the currently pitiful hit-rate on this site (the two are not-unrelated).
