Categories
Science Scientists United States of America

January 6th, 1982 – AAAS meeting warns about carbon dioxide build-up

On this day 43 years ago, the American Association for the Advancement of Science (created 1848) held its annual meeting, this time in Washington DC.  The climatologists held panels within that.

They were pretty blunt about what was on the way.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 382ppm. As of 2026 it is 425ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The broader context was the AAAS had been around for a long long time. By the late 1960s its annual gatherings were a site for scientific discussion of what was coming (see here and here).

The specific context was by the late 1970s the climate scientists were beginning to get sure of the eventual result of tipping huge amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere (though they varied on time frames). AAAS was involved.

Efforts to get policymakers interested had had some success, but it all fell in a heap after the Reagan Administration came in in January 1981.

What I think we can learn from this is that we have known for a long time. This. Was. Not. A. State. Secret.

[LINK]

What happened next. The climate stuff at the AAAS meeting was covered in newspapers around the US, sometimes featuring quite prominently. The scientific work continued. And continued.

1988 was the pivotal year. [LINK]

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

References

Xxx

Also on this day

January 6, 1883 – The New York Times reports on the Atmosphere

January 6, 1989 – “Cloud-Radiative Forcing and Climate: Results from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment” 

January 6, 1995 –  Australian business interests battle a carbon tax with “nobody else is acting” argument

Categories
Denial Science Scientists

January 5th, 2006 – James Hansen interviewed on Sixty Minutes

On this day 20 years ago, climate scientist James Hansen, being censored and bullied left right and centre by Bush administration appointees, breaks a sixteen year silence with the media and says yes to a request to appear on the CBS show Sixty Minutes.

Jim spent the morning of the first interview, January 5, 2006, in his apartment, completing his email about ethics to Einaudi and Leshin. He remembers feeling nervous as he walked the few blocks to his office for the filming. “I wondered if I shouldn’t just talk about the science, but then I decided, ‘To hell with this. This has got to be illegal.’ I would be blunt and not hold anything back.”

Source –  Bowen Censoring Science p. 55

and

“As a government scientist, James Hansen is taking a risk. He says there are things the White House doesn’t want you to hear but he’s going to say them anyway. Hansen is arguably the world’s leading researcher on global warming. He’s the head of NASA’s top institute studying the climate. This imminent scientist says that the Bush administration is restricting who he can talk to and editing what he can say. Politicians, he says, are rewriting the science. Scott Pelley reports.”

[source]

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 382ppm. As of 2026 it is 428ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The broader context was that governments, at the behest of the powerful interests that either control them or “influence them significantly” (depends on the facts, and also the perspective of the commentator!), have always silenced inconvenient voices – “who will rid me of this troublesome priest” etc etc. 

The specific context was that James Hansen had first felt the ire of a Republican administration in 1981 when the front page story on the New York Times in August resulted in already-issued grant funding being pulled from GISS. Hansen kickstarted climate concern with his June 23 1988 testimony to Congress. He found himself mysteriously not invited to various important policy meetings in the following years, and his testimony to Congress subtly altered/suppressed. By 2006 the Bush Jnr administration was fighting a rear-guard action, since the Kyoto PRotocol had finally been ratified by enough nations the previous year to become “law” (well, lore, really), and negotiations for a successor were underway.  The censorship and harassment of Hansen, laid out in Bowen’s book, was part of that.

What I think we can learn from this is that the powerful like to stay powerful, and suppress voices that are telling stark truths, as best they can.

What happened next Hansen retired, and started getting arrested.

Hansen is still working as a scientist and the stuff he is saying is frankly terrifying. I am glad I am closer to the grave than the cradle, because there are some shitstorms on their way.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

References

Bowen, M. 2008. Censoring Science: Inside The Political Attack On Dr. James Hansen And The Truth Of Global Warming.

January 5, 1973 –  An academic article about the Arctic emerges from the Met Office

January 5, 1989 – National Academy of Science tries to chivvy Bush.

January 5, 1995 – Victorian premier comes out against carbon tax – All Our Yesterdays

January 5, 2006 – strategic hand-wringing about “Our Drowning Neighbours”

Categories
Science Scientists

December 29, 1959 – plenty of room at the bottom

Sixty six years ago, on this day, December 29th, 1959,

Physicist Richard Feynman gives a speech entitled “There’s Plenty of Room at the Bottom”, which is regarded as the birth of nanotechnology.

“”There’s Plenty of Room at the Bottom: An Invitation to Enter a New Field of Physics” was a lecture given by physicist Richard Feynman at the annual American Physical Society meeting at Caltech on December 29, 1959.[1] Feynman considered the possibility of direct manipulation of individual atoms as a more robust form of synthetic chemistry than those used at the time. Versions of the talk were reprinted in a few popular magazines, but it went largely unnoticed until the 1980s.

The title references the popular quote “There is always room at the top.” attributed to Daniel Webster (who is thought to have said this phrase in response to warnings against becoming a lawyer, which was seen as an oversaturated field in the 19th century).”

There’s Plenty of Room at the Bottom – Wikipedia

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 316ppm. As of 2025, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.

The broader context was there were lots of smart people knocking around in the 1950s. Lots of funding for them to, within the sprawling empire that was the American military-industrial complex.

The specific context was Feynman was damn smart (once you’re that stratospheric, I am not sure there’s much point in distinguishing between von Neumann etc etc).

What I think we can learn from this – I need to read more Feynman, and more about Feynman.

What happened next? Feynman kept on being absurdly smart. In one of his memoirs he talks about, during the Challenger investigation, talking to engineers on the ground and finding out they were way smarter than their bosses. Obvs.


Also, he dropped the rubber o-ring in the ice water. Now that is showmanship…

The Challenger Disaster – Richard Feynman

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

December 29, 1969 – AAAS symposium on “Climate and Man”

December 29, 1972 – Schneider meets Sullivan

December 29, 1995 – Sydney Morning Herald points out year has been hottest yet…

December 29, 1999 – Russian sub commander turned eco-whistleblower is acquitted.

Categories
Academia Science Scientists

 December 28  – Carl Rossby (1896) and Jonny von Neumann (1903) born

A hundred and twenty plus years ago, on this day, December 28th, 1896/1903

Carl-Gustaf Rossby December 28, 1898 – August 19, 1957

Carl-Gustaf Rossby – Wikipedia

Swedish-American meteorologist who first explained the large-scale motions of the atmosphere in terms of fluid mechanics. His work contributed to developing meteorology as a science. Rossby first theorized about the existence of the jet stream in 1939, and that it governs the easterly movement of most weather. U.S. Army Air Corps pilots flying B-29 bombing missions across the Pacific Ocean during World War II proved the jet stream’s existence. The pilots found that when they flew from east to west, they experienced slower arrival times and fuel shortage problems. When flying from west to east, however, they found the opposite to be true. Rossby created mathematical models (Rossby equations) for computerized weather prediction (1950).

and

John von Neumann Born 28 Dec 1903; died 8 Feb 1957 

Hungarian-American mathematician who made important contributions in quantum physics, logic, meteorology, and computer science. He invented game theory, the branch of mathematics that analyses strategy and is now widely employed for military and economic purposes. During WW II, he studied the implosion method for bringing nuclear fuel to explosion and he participated in the development of the hydrogen bomb. He also set quantum theory upon a rigorous mathematical basis. In computer theory, von Neumann did much of the pioneering work in logical design, in the problem of obtaining reliable answers from a machine with unreliable components, the function of “memory,” and machine imitation of “randomness.”[Image left: Von Neumann with ENIAC computer.]

 John von Neumann: The Scientific Genius Who Pioneered…, by Norman MacRae. – book suggestion.

 Von Neumann is also quoted in Fortune in 1955 “Can We Survive Technology?” (spoiler – probably not)

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 295-297ppm. As of 2025, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.

The broader context was these were two seriously smart human beings.

The specific context was Rossby was born the same year Arrhenius’s paper on carbon dioxide build-up was published, lol.

What I think we can learn from this – I do wish von Neumann had lasted a bit longer – I think he might have taken more interest in CO2 build-up. But this is idle speculation and dreaming that a white saviour might have saved us. Nowt was going to save us.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

December 28, 1978 – fly the plane. Don’t keep tapping the fuel light.

December 28, 1994 – Australian Financial Review says “say yes to Tradeable Emissions Quotas”

December 28, 2002 –  Renewable Energy vs John Howard, round 55ish… –

Categories
Science Scientists Sweden

December 24, 1894 – Arrhenius starts work…

One hundred and thirty one years ago, on this day, December 24th, 1894,

Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius, in the midst of a gruesome divorce, started work on his  climate model, Dec 24 1894 ( source for the date is Elizabeth Kolbert “H is for Hope” p12)

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 295ppm. As of 2025, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.

The broader context was that Arrhenius was aware of Tyndall’s work on “carbonic acid” in the atmosphere (but not Eunice Foote’s).

The specific context was – he was going through a messy and painful divorce and needed a Project to Distract Himself.

What I think we can learn from this – scientists make sacrifices etc.

What happened next was that Arrhenius published the work. He later got a Nobel Prize for chemistry (for other discoveries).

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

December 24, 1895 – Arrhenius explains the work that went in… 

December 24, 1968 – “Earthrise” photo

December 24, 1990 – Australia as renewable energy superpower

Categories
Science Scientists United Kingdom

December 13, 1984 – Thatcher warned about climate change. Again.

On this day 41 years ago, the Chief Scientific Advisor, B.N. Nicholson wrote a report which included this –

The predicted changes in climate accompanying increases in atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and other gases will have widespread and possibly catastrophic impacts on agriculture, energy supply and demand, sea-defences etc.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 352ppm. As of 2025, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.

The broader context was that by the early 1980s climate scientists were pretty sure that there was a quick (in geological terms basically instantaneous) warming on the way. Not that anyone in “power” seemed to give a damn.

The specific context was that Thatcher had already been warned about carbon dioxide build-up by her previous Chief Scientific Advisor, John Ashworth. Meanwhile, by 1984 it was becoming obvious to scientists who could add up that there was serious trouble ahead.

What we learn.  There were plenty of warnings – our “leaders” did not lead.

What happened next. Thatcher was finally convinced in 1988, and the next phase started – one of empty promises.

Also on this day

December 13, 1967 – Sweden begins to save the world…

December 13, 1973 – Edward Heath announces Three Day Week

December 13, 1978 – BBC Radio talks about climate change “One Degree Over” – All Our Yesterdays

December 13, 1984 – Christian Science Monitor monitors the #climate science – ooops.

Categories
Science Scientists Sweden

December 9, 1955 – “On a Mathematical Model of the Carbon Cycle in Nature” submitted.

On this day seventy years ago, an important academic paper on the carbon cycle was received. Published the following year.

On a Mathematical Model of the Carbon Cycle in Nature

A discussion is given of a simple mathematical model of the carbon dioxide cycle in atmosphere-biosphere-sea, with special attention to the possibility of self-sustained oscillations and to the behaviour of the cycle when additional carbon dioxide is injected from an outer source. The discussion is confined to phenomena with characteristic times of the order of 10–103 years leaving out the long geologic periods as well as the purely annual periods. Some numerical computations are also carried out on the electronic computer BESK. The discussion and the computations show that self-sustained oscillations possibly appear due to the presence of the sea, and that they generally are favoured when there exist time-lags in the biosphere of the order of a few decades. The computations also indicate that additional carbon dioxide injected at a rate corresponding to the present combustion of fossil carbon does not change significantly the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere, since most part of it will be stored in the biosphere. Thus, the present theory suggests that the increase of carbon dioxide indicated by recent measurements may represent part of a natural self-sustained oscillation and not necessarily be a response to an increased combustion of fossils.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 313ppm. As of 2025, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.

The broader context was that all sorts of new possibilities for understanding the universe were being opened up in the 1940s and 1950s – the technical advances of the second war offered new ways of gathering and analysing data, finding patterns.

The specific context was that those meetings in 1954-1955 were a neglected (especially by this site!) push for understanding of the carbon dioxide influence…

What I think we can learn from this – the knowledge of potential problems ahead was solid by the mid-1950s, and it wasn’t all down to Gilbert Plass…

What happened next – then-young Swedish scientist Bert Bolin went to the US in 1959 and tried to get everyone alarmed about carbon dioxide build-up. Oh well…

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

December 9, 1974 – UK Department of Energy launches “energy efficiency” programme

December 9, 1998 – Canberra bullshit about environment

December 9, 2004 – “Real Climate” hits the web, bless it.

Categories
Science Scientists United States of America

December 6, 2005 – James Hansen speech about imminent tipping points, at AGU

Twenty years ago, on this day,

“On 6 December 2005, in a presentation to the American Geophysical Union (AGU), James Hansen stated that, “we are on the precipice of climate system tipping points beyond which there is no redemption” (Hansen, 2005, p. 8). Hansen’s warning helped initiate a tipping point trend in climate change communication that was quickly reflected in public debate. These warnings were front page news by January 2006, with The Washington Post reporting that, “[t]his ‘tipping point’ scenario has begun to consume many prominent researchers in the United States and abroad…” (Eilperin, 2006, p. A01).”

The tipping point trend in climate change communication – ScienceDirect

See also Bowen Censoring Science 1 to 6

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 380ppm. As of 2025, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.

The broader context was that James Hansen had been getting in trouble with asshole Republican administrations since 1981, when a front page story on the New York Times had led to a research grant already given being withdrawn and people losing their jobs. The George HW Bush administration had also tried to sideline/silence Hansen in the key period 1989-1992. And on and on it went.

The specific context was HW’s dumb son, “Dubya” was nominally President, but you gotta assume a lot of the direction was coming from Dick Cheney. By this time the US was having to contend with the fact that the UN process, which it thought it had rendered pointless by withdrawing from Kyoto negotiations, was “back on track” (it’s all relative) and there would be more fights to come about this.

What I think we can learn from this – Hansen is worth listening to. It’s scary af.

What happened next – Hansen took (enforced) retirement. GISS got slaughtered in 2025. The emissions kept climbing, and the Republicans stopped pretending to be anything other than devastation-bots.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

December 6, 2005 – CCS is our only hope, says Chief Scientist….

December 6, 2006- Turns out 0.1% of a Very BIG NUMBER is … quite a lot…

December 6, 2018 – Macron scraps a fuel tax because of protests – All Our Yesterdays

Categories
Scientists

December 4, 1893 – John Tyndall dies

One hundred and thirty two years ago, on this day, December 4th, 1893,

In his last years Tyndall often took chloral hydrate to treat his insomnia. When bedridden and ailing, he died from an accidental overdose[79] of this drug in 1893 at the age of 73, and was buried at Haslemere.[80] The overdose was administered by his wife Louisa. “My darling,” said Tyndall when he realized what had happened, “you have killed your John.”[81]

: 1893 John Tyndall dies http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Tyndall

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 294ppm. As of 2025, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.

The broader context was that Tyndall had, in the 1860s, proved that carbon dioxide was a greenhouse gas (did he rip off Eunice Foote? Possibly. Probably say some. I am less convinced, fwiw).

What I think we can learn from this – be super careful with potentially lethal cures for insomnia? Er, that’s all I got…

Also, I listened to a podcast where they interviewed the climate scientist Kate Marvel – in her new book she speculates (and she admits this is speculation) that it may not have been an accident…

What happened next? They named a climate centre after him.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

December 4, 1969 – Black Panther Fred Hampton assassinated by FBI, Chicago cops – All Our Yesterdays

December 4, 1989 – first anti-climate action economic “modelling” released in Australia

December 4, 1989 – Greenhouse tax urged…

Categories
Science Scientists

November 23, 1965 – Walter Orr Roberts “carbon dioxide is clearly rising in the atmosphere”

Sixty years ago, on this day, November 23rd 1965, American scientist Walter Orr Roberts gave a speech. In it, this – 

“Perhaps, through this mechanism, we are already modifying the atmosphere, unknowingly and on a large scale, as we clearly are already doing on the city scale. Indeed, can we be sure that city-scale modification is simply city-scale? Or are the atmospheric solids and gases put in over the city bringing changes on a larger scale? The relative abundance of carbon dioxide is clearly rising in the atmosphere, almost certainly through man’s intervention. But no one seems at all secure about what this is doing to the climate.”

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society  Vol. 47, No. 3, March 1966 Based on an address delivered at the International Symposium on Electromagnetic Sensing of the Earth from Satellites, Miami, Fla., 23 November 1965.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 320ppm. As of 2025, when this post was published, it was 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.

The broader context was since the early 1950s the question of carbon dioxide build-up and its possible climatic consequences had been known. Not necessarily taken seriously, but by the mid-1960s, this was -just- beginning to shift.

The specific context was Roberts gave his speech in the aftermath of the release of the PSAC report on November 7th 1965.

What I think we can learn from this – it wasn’t secret or arcane information.  I am not saying “everyone knew” but, well, a lot of people did.

What happened next – the emissions kept climbing. NCAR kept investigating.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

November 23, 1961 – “The Day the Earth Caught Fire” (in Denmark)

November 23, 1963 – Doctor Who begins

November 23, 1968 – “Hell upon Earth” warning about environmental destruction,inc. Climate…

November 23, 1988 – Australian Prime Minister Bob Hawke gives greenhouse speech

November 23, 2009 – Global Warming Policy Foundation launched