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December 12, 2007 – Canada leaves Kyoto Protocol as Australia joins

Sixteen years ago, on this day, December 12, 2007, Canada leaves Kyoto Protocol as Australia formally joins

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 384ppm. As of 2023 it is 421ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that a COP was taking place in Bali Indonesia that was all about what would happen after the Kyoto Protocol period was over 2008 to 2012.

The Canadians under Stephen Harper were clearly not going to hit their targets and Harper, a conservative, was throwing red meat to his side in removing Canada.

The Australian story was the opposite: Kevin Rudd had used Kyoto and lack of ratification as a way of painting then Prime Minister John Howard as a dinosaur ahead of the November 2007 federal election. One of his first acts as Prime Minister was to announce that Australia would ratify the Kyoto Protocol.

What I think we can learn from this

Day-to-day-to-year politics mean that no agreement is particularly safe. 

There is also a lot of symbolism going on – see the “veil of Kyoto” article.

What happened next

Rudd, at Bali, refused to go along with European requests for Australia to have a higher emissions reduction target than its pitiful current level – a sign of problems to come.

The emissions kept climbing.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs..

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5 December, 1952 & 2009 London sees climatic pollution events

Seventy one years ago, on this day, December 5, 1952…

The potentially deadly nature of urban smoke had been demonstrated some years earlier during London’s historic “Black Fog” of December 5-9, 1952. A temperature inversion trapped the city’s smoke close to the ground. On the first day it was still a white fog, but so extraordinarily dense that cars and buses moved slower than a walk, and the opera had to be cancelled when fog seeped into the theatre and made it impossible for the singers to see the conductor. By the last day, the fog had turned black, visibility was limited to a mere eleven inches, and the hospitals were full of Londoners perishing from the smoke. Many of the 4,000 or so people killed by this episode never made it to the hospital but died on the streets; fifty bodies were removed from one small city park. In 1956, after nearly seven hundred years of complaints about the coal smoke in London, Parliament finally banned the burning of soft coal in the central city, and the air immediately improved.

Page 167-8 Coal: A Human History by Barbara Freese. (c/w Web of Fear!)

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 312ppm. As of 2023 it is 420ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that air quality was dreadful. People had been dropping dead in peasoupers, but this was far worse, with a death toll of around four thousand. Finally, four years later, we get the Clean Air Act because of it despite continued resistance, 

What we learn is that there can be multiple disasters, but you need a lot of people to die before anything will get done. 

But interestingly, 57 years later to the day, there is another form of pollution in London, mental pollution, i.e. “hopey-pollution.” 

So the context is this. At the end of 2008, the main legislative goal had been agreed, a Climate Change Act and this was almost entirely due to the work of Friends of the Earth, bless them. They did really good work there. Then what do you do for an encore? And the problem is that even getting that much agreement was tricky. And you need to do something that has got low entry costs that everyone can agree that might apparently help the process along. And some bright spark came up with the idea of a march and the earliest publicity said “March in December”, haha. 

And it was then changed to “The Wave.” This is not really the fault of the individuals having to work within a system that contains and constrains everything.

And that means that we have to undertake these ritualised repertoires, because what else is there? 

But I remember a conversation with a very frustrated advocate of marching.

And I said, “do we need social movements to fight climate change?” 

“Yes” she said

“Do marches build social movements?” 

“No” she conceded, but was still fuming that I wasn’t interested in marching.

The end.

Here we are unwilling and unable to innovate to do the granular work because it’s just not near enough to our wheelhouse. 

So 57 years apart, London is subjected to two deadly consequences of its industrial heritage…

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Uncategorized United States of America

December 2, 1981 – “Is the world getting warmer?” (YES)

Forty two years ago, on this day, December 2, 1981, a not-particularly good article appeared in the Christian Science Monitor

Starr, Douglas, 1981.. “Is the world getting warmer?”. Christian Science Monitor December 2

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 340ppm. As of 2023 it is 420ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that the https://allouryesterdays.info/2023/07/23/july-24-1980-global-2000-report-released/Global 2000 report had been released. And in the dying days of the Carter administration, in January 1981 the Committee on Environmental Quality’s Gus Speth had released other stuff. Other people were releasing things as well. And this is not as good an article, I think, as the Wall Street Journal one from August of 1980. That’s a “must.”

What I think we can learn from this

There was plenty of awareness about climate change in the late 1970s and early 1980s. 

What happened next

There was a pivotal meeting of scientists in Villach, in September 1985. The scientists started pushing hard. In 1988 the issue broke through…

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs..

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November 26, 2008 – Climate Change Act becomes law

Fifteen years ago, on this day, November 26, 2008, the UK Climate Change Act got royal assent.

The UK now had a Committee on Climate Change, carbon budgets and a reduction target of 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2005.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_Change_Act_2008

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 385.8ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was the issue of climate had been moving steadily up the political agenda (with climate and energy policy becoming entwined in the period 2000 to 2009). In 2000 the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution had recommended a 60% emissions reduction target by 2050. As public agitation (Climate Camp, Campaign Against Climate Change, Transitions Towns etc) got going, the NGO Friends of the Earth led a civil society charge for a Climate Change Bill. Though they shared the credit with the broader “Stop Climate Chaos” coalition, it was really their victory. At this time there was bipartisan support for action, because opposition leader David Cameron had been using environmental issues to detoxify the Tory brand.

What I think we can learn from this

You can have all the bipartisanship you like. It won’t last, and unless you have social movements and civil society monitoring the promises and putting pressure on the decision makers to make it happen, ‘business as usual’ will re-assert itself.

What happened next

David Cameron became Prime Minister, thanks to the connivance of the Liberal Democrats. And then within a couple of years it was ‘cut the green crap’…

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong?

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November 19, 1943 – FIDO used for the first time

Eighty years ago, on this day, November 19, 1943, the burn-enormous-amounts-of-petrol-to-disperse-fog-so-bombers-can-land was used for the first time.

From the time of the first operational use of FIDO at Graveley on the 19/20 November 1943 until the end of the year, thirty-nine successful landings were made. 

Fleming, 2007, p.56.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 310ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was Guy Callendar’s bright idea of burning off fog that would prevent RAF planes from returning to base got its first actual physical use, saving crews’ lives so they could continue bombing campaigns against military targets and against civilians. It’s a war.

What I think we can learn from this

Local weather manipulation and global patterns have a backstory

What happened next

 FIDO continued to get used through to the end of the war. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

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November 13, 1975 – climate testimony to House of Reps committee

Forty seven years ago, on this day, November 13, 1975, scientists were busy trying to inform politicians of the coming threats.

Concerning possible effects of air pollution on climate

Testimony before the Subcommittee on Environment and the Atmosphere of the Committee on Science and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives,  13-14 November 1975 

And got turned into an article in the Bulletin of the AMS.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 331ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that by 1975 scientists who studied this stuff were getting more and more alarmed about the build up of CO2. The best way of demonstrating this is the Wally Broecker paper “are we on the cusp of a pronounced global warming.” But it’s one thing for something to appear in a scientific journal like Science, it’s another for politicians to hear it. Of course, US politicians had been hearing this stuff for years, a long time. 20 years really going back to Roger Revelle in the lead-up to the International Geophysical Year

What’s different here is there’s more certainty, more science, and the build-up of co2 has continued. 

What I think we can learn from this

It takes a very very long time for a new idea/problem to become an issue. There is enormous inertia in people’s heads, in our (political) cultures.

What happened next

An attempt to get legislation through failed.  There was soon a second push for a climate act with George Brown and others. It worked.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

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November 10, 1995 – Ken Saro-Wiwa and other Ogoni executed

Twenty eight years ago, on this day, November 10, 1995, nine men, including the writer Ken Saro-Wiwa were executed.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 361ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that Nigeria was a brutal dictatorship with local warlords making loads a money. Ogoni were getting screwed.

The military dictatorship in Nigeria had decided to execute a bunch of Ogoni leaders who were protesting against the despoilation and the extractivism that had been going on for decades as funded by what has perpetrated by outfits like our friends at Shell who were having a rough time of it in the second half of the 1990s. 

What I think we can learn from this

That the world is going to hell in a handbasket.

What happened next

Nigeria stopped being an official actual military dictatorship. The shituation for the Ogoni is not hugely better.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

References

  • Canadian author J. Timothy Hunt‘s The Politics of Bones (September 2005), published shortly before the 10th anniversary of Saro-Wiwa’s execution, documented the flight of Saro-Wiwa’s brother Owens Wiwa, after his brother’s execution and his own imminent arrest, to London and then on to Canada, where he is now a citizen and continues his brother’s fight on behalf of the Ogoni people. Moreover, it is also the story of Owens’ personal battle against the Nigerian government to locate his brother’s remains after they were buried in an unmarked mass-grave.[93]
  • Ogoni’s Agonies: Ken Saro Wiwa and the Crisis in Nigeria (1998), edited by Abdul Rasheed Naʾallah, provides more information on the struggles of the Ogoni people[94]
  • Onookome Okome’s book, Before I Am Hanged: Ken Saro-Wiwa—Literature, Politics, and Dissent (1999)[95] is a collection of essays about Wiwa
  • In the Shadow of a Saint: A Son’s Journey to Understanding His Father’s Legacy (2000), was written by his son Ken Wiwa.
  • Saro-Wiwa’s own diary, A Month and a Day: A Detention Diary, was published in January 1995, two months after his execution.
  • In Looking for Transwonderland – Travels in Nigeria, his daughter Noo Saro-Wiwa tells the story of her return to Nigeria years after her father’s murder.
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November 4, 1988 – no quick fix on climate, warns Australian Environment Minister

Thirty four years ago, on this day, November 4, 1988, the Federal Government’s Environment Minister, Graham Richardson – warns, at the Greenhouse 88 conference in Melbourne, that there is “no quick fix” for ‘the greenhouse effect’

The cover of “In Future” issue 11, the magazine of the Commission for the Future. The guy in the centre is Stephen Schneider. Top left is Barry Jones and Phillip Adams. Top right is Graham Richardson.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 351.7ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was

Greenhouse 88 had been the brainchild of the combination of “the Greenhouse Project” established in 1987, which had been a major project of the commission for the future and the Atmospheric Physics gang of the CSIRO.

What I think we can learn from this is that a smart politician and Graham Richardson – whatever else you want to say about him (and people have) – he’s smart. We should manage expectations and remind people that moments of exuberance and hope are no substitute for a long term decent movement. 

What happened next

The Greenhouse Action Australia organisation did its best to keep the momentum going. See Dan Cass’s excellent article. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

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October 26, 2001 – BioEnergy Carbon Capture and Storage mooted

Twenty two years ago, on this day, October 26, 2001, BECCS put in an early appearance, in a letter to the American publication Science.

“We provided this information in an IIASA interim report, which never received much attention, but laid a foundation for the forthcoming Science letter. However, in retrospect, these early scenarios were the cradle of the types of scenarios we now see underpinning the Paris Climate Agreement. With these scenarios at hand, we had more confidence and submitted our letter to Science, which was published on October 26th, 2001.” https://climatestrategies.org/twenty-years-of-beccs-a-short-retrospection/

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 371ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was

The IPCC was putting together a special report on CCS. There was a workshop within it including the stuff about bio energy, carbon capture and storage, which is where you would basically plant trees, burn them and capture, or dump the trees in the deep ocean. In essence.

What I think we can learn from this

BECCS had a long history longer than I thought, and crucially, IIASA is a midwife again. And so these technologies have long histories. It takes a long time to get anything off the ground. And if you do want to get it off the ground or in this case under the ground you could do worse than IIASA.

What happened next

By 2013-14 BECCS was becoming part of the narrative. It has stayed there. There are all sorts of fantasies we will tell ourselves and each other, soothing stories of salvation

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

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September 5, 1986 – a “Safe Energy” rally, in London

Thirty seven years ago, on this day, September 5, 1986, a big (it’s relative) rally took place in London, in the aftermath of the Chernobyl disaster, sponsored by Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth…

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 347ppm. As of 2023 it is 423ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that in April 1986 the nuclear dream had suffered yet another setback with the partial meltdown of a dodgy Soviet reactor at Chernobyl. This had been big news globally, but especially in most of the countries downwind which included Sweden Scotland Wales England etc (the French had a different view).

In May 1986, following the Chernobyl disaster, an estimated 150,000 to 200,000 people had marched in Rome to protest against the Italian nuclear program. Friends of the Earth and Greenpeace were engaged in trying to move the UK government from its pro-nuclear stance. 

What I think we can learn from this

Energy is a political football as we are always rediscovering. It always comes with judgements about how much is enough, what risks are worth running, who should run those risks at cetera. The risk of unmitigated climate change had not yet properly broken through into the public consciousness at this point, but within two years it began to.

What happened next

 In 1988 the greenhouse issue came along and it would be impossible to hold that kind of rally without mentioning climate change.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.