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December 12, 2007 – Canada leaves Kyoto Protocol as Australia joins

Sixteen years ago, on this day, December 12, 2007, Canada leaves Kyoto Protocol as Australia formally joins

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 384ppm. As of 2023 it is 421ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that a COP was taking place in Bali Indonesia that was all about what would happen after the Kyoto Protocol period was over 2008 to 2012.

The Canadians under Stephen Harper were clearly not going to hit their targets and Harper, a conservative, was throwing red meat to his side in removing Canada.

The Australian story was the opposite: Kevin Rudd had used Kyoto and lack of ratification as a way of painting then Prime Minister John Howard as a dinosaur ahead of the November 2007 federal election. One of his first acts as Prime Minister was to announce that Australia would ratify the Kyoto Protocol.

What I think we can learn from this

Day-to-day-to-year politics mean that no agreement is particularly safe. 

There is also a lot of symbolism going on – see the “veil of Kyoto” article.

What happened next

Rudd, at Bali, refused to go along with European requests for Australia to have a higher emissions reduction target than its pitiful current level – a sign of problems to come.

The emissions kept climbing.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs..

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November 13, 1975 – climate testimony to House of Reps committee

Forty seven years ago, on this day, November 13, 1975, scientists were busy trying to inform politicians of the coming threats.

Concerning possible effects of air pollution on climate

Testimony before the Subcommittee on Environment and the Atmosphere of the Committee on Science and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives,  13-14 November 1975 

And got turned into an article in the Bulletin of the AMS.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 331ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that by 1975 scientists who studied this stuff were getting more and more alarmed about the build up of CO2. The best way of demonstrating this is the Wally Broecker paper “are we on the cusp of a pronounced global warming.” But it’s one thing for something to appear in a scientific journal like Science, it’s another for politicians to hear it. Of course, US politicians had been hearing this stuff for years, a long time. 20 years really going back to Roger Revelle in the lead-up to the International Geophysical Year

What’s different here is there’s more certainty, more science, and the build-up of co2 has continued. 

What I think we can learn from this

It takes a very very long time for a new idea/problem to become an issue. There is enormous inertia in people’s heads, in our (political) cultures.

What happened next

An attempt to get legislation through failed.  There was soon a second push for a climate act with George Brown and others. It worked.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

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November 10, 1995 – Ken Saro-Wiwa and other Ogoni executed

Twenty eight years ago, on this day, November 10, 1995, nine men, including the writer Ken Saro-Wiwa were executed.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 361ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that Nigeria was a brutal dictatorship with local warlords making loads a money. Ogoni were getting screwed.

The military dictatorship in Nigeria had decided to execute a bunch of Ogoni leaders who were protesting against the despoilation and the extractivism that had been going on for decades as funded by what has perpetrated by outfits like our friends at Shell who were having a rough time of it in the second half of the 1990s. 

What I think we can learn from this

That the world is going to hell in a handbasket.

What happened next

Nigeria stopped being an official actual military dictatorship. The shituation for the Ogoni is not hugely better.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

References

  • Canadian author J. Timothy Hunt‘s The Politics of Bones (September 2005), published shortly before the 10th anniversary of Saro-Wiwa’s execution, documented the flight of Saro-Wiwa’s brother Owens Wiwa, after his brother’s execution and his own imminent arrest, to London and then on to Canada, where he is now a citizen and continues his brother’s fight on behalf of the Ogoni people. Moreover, it is also the story of Owens’ personal battle against the Nigerian government to locate his brother’s remains after they were buried in an unmarked mass-grave.[93]
  • Ogoni’s Agonies: Ken Saro Wiwa and the Crisis in Nigeria (1998), edited by Abdul Rasheed Naʾallah, provides more information on the struggles of the Ogoni people[94]
  • Onookome Okome’s book, Before I Am Hanged: Ken Saro-Wiwa—Literature, Politics, and Dissent (1999)[95] is a collection of essays about Wiwa
  • In the Shadow of a Saint: A Son’s Journey to Understanding His Father’s Legacy (2000), was written by his son Ken Wiwa.
  • Saro-Wiwa’s own diary, A Month and a Day: A Detention Diary, was published in January 1995, two months after his execution.
  • In Looking for Transwonderland – Travels in Nigeria, his daughter Noo Saro-Wiwa tells the story of her return to Nigeria years after her father’s murder.
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July 5, 1973 – The Predicament of Mankind discussed

Fifty years ago, on this day, July 5, 1973, a Nobel laureate called Dennis Gabor gave a speech at Lindau on “The Predicament of Mankind.”

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 330ppm. As of 2023 it is 423ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that everyone was running around with a computer, either Malthus or otherwise, proclaiming Limits to Growth or the need for blueprints to survival especially by the year 2000 (odometer years are seductive things). And look, here comes some Nobel Prize winners to stroke their chins and either add to clarity or add to confusion. 

What I think we can learn from this

The thing that we should really remember about “Nobel Prize winner X”  or a “x Nobel Prize winners sign open letter” is just because they’re really really smart in one particular domain mean doesn’t mean that their self-confidence in that domain, let alone other domains, is necessarily justified. Because for every prescient warning at gatherings like Lindau, there was another one that was completely barking. As Nils Bohr said, prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.  

What happened next

The Lindau lot kept meeting. There have been highlights and lowlights. This year a guy on a manel bemoaned how hard it was for young white men…

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

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July 2, 2013 – Boris Johnson, expert on energy systems, attacks windfarms

Ten years ago, on this day, July 2, 2013, Boris defuckhead Johnson writes in his column in the Daily Telegraph “newspaper” that  “Wind farms couldn’t pull the skin off a rice pudding”

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 398.8ppm. As of 2023 it is 423ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was overpaid hack Boris Johnson needed to write a column. And attacking wind farms is always easy if you’re a conservative. Johnson, of course, didn’t bother to do any research. Why would he, that’s not what they were paying him for. You don’t ask a clown to have evidence based policy and you should not ask a clown to be Prime Minister or World King, Offshore wind was in a precarious position but was beginning to make headway.

OTHER OLD WHITE MEN

’ Mr Peter McGauran MP, the federal Minister for Agriculture and member for Gippsland, went further in June 2006, saying ‘Wind farms don’t live up to the hype that they’re the environmental saviour and a serious alternative energy source.

(Prest, 2007: 254)

ABC, 2006. Pete McGauran says wind farms a fraud. AM Program, 29 June. 2006

Old white men just can’t bear to be dependent (Hudson 2017)

What I think we can learn from this commentators especially right wing ones, can say any old fact-free shit that they like and suffer no consequences. Wind power now provides a decent (and climbing)  percentage of our electricity needs, on an annual basis in the UK. (Please note I am not advocating a 100% wind energy economy nobody is that’s a straw man. That’s a trap.)

What happened next

Boris Johnson became Prime Minister and by between the narrating of this and the uploading, probably Prime Minister again. [no, actually he is toast.] 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

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June 3, 2010 – Merchants of Doubt published

Thirteen years ago, on this day, June 3, 2010, one of the best books about climate denial and its historical roots was published: Merchants of Doubt by Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 392.3ppm. As of 2023 it is 423ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that there had been earlier books (including two by Ross Gelbspan which I would recommend) about climate denial. Oreskes and Conway had been working hard to show the history of organised denial of basic science by industry and how the climate people had learned from ozone and tobacco, same playbook, and how certain personnel were the same. It was published maybe a year too late to have the impact that it could have, if it had come out. Before Copenhagen, it might have exposed and neutered the sort of climategate bullshit, but here we are. The book is really, really good. And I would strongly recommend that you read it. 

What I think we can learn from this

Good books can change folks’ perspective (duh).

What happened next

They made a movie. Everybody knows, who wants to know, that there have been systematic programmes of lying to us. But because those liars are well-protected, and don’t suffer consequences, and because it’s exhausting to be lied to, the lies wash you down. And the promises rust.

And because of the mass media being what it is, as opposed to what media could be, we are where we are, where we are.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

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May 23, 2012 – wicked problems and super-wicked problems all around…

Eleven years ago, on this day, May 23, 2012, there was an interesting paper published about “wicked problems” and super wicked problems.

2012 Overcoming the tragedy of super wicked problems: constraining our future selves to ameliorate global climate change published on 23 May 2012 

Most policy-relevant work on climate change in the social sciences either analyzes costs and benefits of particular policy options against important but often narrow sets of objectives or attempts to explain past successes or failures. We argue that an ‘‘applied forward reasoning’’ approach is better suited for social scientists seeking to address climate change, which we characterize as a ‘‘super wicked’’ problem comprising four key features: time is running out; those who cause the problem also seek to provide a solution; the central authority needed to address it is weak or non-existent; and, partly as a result, policy responses discount the future irrationally. These four features combine to create a policy-making ‘‘tragedy’’ where traditional analytical techniques are ill equipped to identify solutions, even when it is well recognized that actions must take place soon to avoid catastrophic future impacts.

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11077-012-9151-0.pdf?pdf=button

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 396.9ppm. As of 2023 it is 420ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that we have known about so-called wicked problems for 50 years. And the idea of super wicked problems has been around for thirty.

Climate change is a super wicked problem par excellence, and this was especially obvious in the aftermath of the Copenhagen fiasco, which had occurred in December 2009. And it was not at this point at all clear that the UNFCCC caravan could have its wheels put back on in any meaningful sense.

What I think we can learn from this

It’s super-wicked problems all the way down… We kept punching the tar baby, and now it’s all over but the dying.

What happened next

We didn’t even acknowledge that these are super-wicked problems, let alone take actions to roll with the punches…

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong?  Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

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Build Back Biodiversity:  International Biodiversity Day

A guest post by John Patmore

Today, 22 May 2023, is International Biodiversity Day or ‘International Day of Biological Diversity’ to use UN’s phrasing. This year’s theme is ‘From Agreement to Action: Build Back Biodiversity

If you look on Social Media search for: #BuildBackBiodiversity

And also: #AgreementToAction #KMGBF,

Along with: #HarmonyWithNature #30by30 #ForNature #ActionDecade #post2020

What Happened?

The original Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) was prepared and signed following the 1992 ‘Rio Earth Summit’*. Thirty years later it is worth reminding ourselves why the term ‘Biodiversity’ arose, and what it was meant to capture.

Angry Monkey

“The earth is black in front of the cliff, and no orchids grow.

 Creepers crawl in the brown mud by the path.

 Where did the birds of yesterday fly?

 To what other mountain did the animals go?

 Leopards and pythons dislike this ruined spot;

 Cranes and snakes avoid the desolation.

 My criminal thoughts of those days past

 Brought on the disaster of today.”

‘Monkey’  Wu Ch’ên-Ên  Penguin Classics 

Humanity likes to see itself as all-knowing. Technology will provide solutions. ‘We’ are clever enough to control our destiny through applied engineering backed up with enough money.

Over recent decades we have seen there are many examples of our desires for more, faster and easier results failing. Recent floods across England, Pakistan and Bangladesh to name a few have left people homeless. The hottest summer ever recorded last year in England along with forests burning in Europe and USA over this century indicate massive environmental change we need to prepare for if we can’t ‘solve’ Climate Change.

Biodiversity was never seen as an end in itself. With publication of the ‘UK Biodiversity Action Plan’ (HMSO 1994) I asked the naive question “What is the point of it?”; my question was deliberate as ‘Conservation’ had been going on in Britain for over a Century. 

Biodiversity and the ‘Action Plans’ which emerged fulfilled several functions; a key one being to monitor change in the natural world. Sustainable Development as the foundation of the ‘Rio Earth Summit’* had three interconnected lynch pins. ‘Environment’ being the one that biodiversity plans aimed to monitor. Put simply: ‘You only go extinct once’ and we are seeing that increasingly across the World. In Britain the Scottish Wildcat has vanished, common dormouse is no longer common, water voles are extinct across many former counties.  The various ‘Biodiversity Action Plans’ (BAP) specified a range of habitat actions and species targets to enhance UK biodiversity.  added 

While we started to catalogue changes in biodiversity in the 1990s and list the objectives needed to enhance it there was a lack of meaningful action or senior level commitment. Even the Government’s National  UKBAP website, the index to biodiversity objectives, now advertises a private company!

However, COP15 provides continuity with the original UN CBD. There is genuine love for nature and commitment to biodiversity at the more local community levels.  

Some may say “We cannot control nature”; this phrase is often used by climate-change sceptics too. Yet we have successfully increased global air and sea temperatures over the past fifty years at rates never measured previously! We have destroyed habitats around the globe, whether it is rainforests or coral reefs. We have built on, ploughed and polluted heathlands, meadows and freshwater rivers in this country. So yes, “We can control nature”.

Breaking your own toys

When a complex and functioning system stops working normally a frequent immature reaction is to over-react. An intellectually and emotionally simple primate will literally ‘break its own toys’ rather than appreciate and understand how they should work. It can also be termed ODD (Oppositional Defiant Disorder). Having ‘broken’ the planet Earth it is clear that repair will require a focused action, agreed at a global scale. Most truly natural habitats have been destroyed and there has been over a century of damage to the area and connections between ‘Semi Natural Habitats’.

We have seen recent examples of emotionally simple ‘ODD’ reactions. Car fuel queues and anger over heating following Russian gas supply anxieties. We sheepishly recall fisticuff over toilet rolls –  Loo Roll Riots, of all things! This illustrates how we live in an interconnected world; or ‘Ecosystem’, as ecologists normally refer to this planet of natural, semi-natural habitats and species. 

Perhaps think of the global ecosystem as though it was your own body. You can lose teeth. You can lose a finger, or a toe. As each component of the ecosystem is lost the quality of life diminishes. Failing organs and hormone imbalance have a much larger impact than their physical size indicates; best to not overlook and ignore the diversity of creatures in our collective ecosystems! 

We are given indicators of ecosystem change, if we choose to see them. The zoonoses transfer of viruses from birds, bats and eventually larger mammals to humans led to the global pandemics of Covid19 and H5N1 (‘Bird Flu’ in Asia starting 2003).

Where next – Mars?

Following many centuries of species extinctions (Dodos were hunted to death!) and natural habitat loss it is time to reflect. Destruction of the Brazilian rainforest has been well documented, and still continues as cattle are farmed for a few short years to supply the ‘beefburger’ fast food trade. Borneo is one of the richest ecosystems in the world (= most biodiverse) and we see accelerating decline of its forests to be replaced by urban areas or palm oil plantations. In 1973 (fifty years ago) the large island of Borneo was almost completely dominated by tropical and sub-tropical rainforest. Now within two generations only a much reduced strip of rainforest now remains in the centre of Indonesian Kalimantan. 

We destroy the very health of planet Earth. At an egocentric level this will result in damage to our own human health. At an ecocentric level the very planet which has sustained life for over three billion years is being destroyed. Humanity is smart enough now to see this destruction. Mars is a long distance into the future. It makes far more sense to look after the only planet we know can support life.

Where next then?

Within Brighton and Hove’s Wildlife Forum (BHWF) we look to work with partner bodies to promote biodiversity and geodiversity. Everyone has a connection with nature. If you are keen to help improve nature conservation there are some basic first steps which will make a big big difference.

1. Set up a connection with others. This is the crucial ‘Agreement’ step which provides the foundation for action.

2. Confirm the current places with biodiversity and geodiversity features in your area. Google Maps is a super resource for this as you can plot polygons and single points on an internet map that everyone can see and share in improving.

3. Arrange to visit the Local Wildlife Sites (LWS = biodiversity and geodiversity) you have selected. They do not have formal protection so you can simply start by photographing and describing them.

4. As other people with a shared interest become focused on each particular LWS you can build up a list of habitats and species which depend on that site. Ideally you can monitor the size and health of your LWS areas.

5. Keep an eye on council forward plans, and also planning applications. You can identify threats to the LWS network. Given support from conservation groups you can actively prevent the loss and destruction of local biodiversity. 

And finally,

6. It’s not all trouble and strife! Once you have a LWS network on the live map, which people close by can see and know about, it’s time to expand. Look for opportunities to connect up the separate LWS areas, with ‘Wildlife Corridors’. This can be as small and personal as planting native species in a part of your garden adjacent to a neighbour also doing this. Allowing ‘Hedgehog Corridors’ to be created (see ‘Hedgehog Street Campaign’) 

7. Habitat Connectivity is often the most positive improvement that can be made by local groups and people. Finding the LWS network, protecting the areas and then enhancing their natural qualities to connect with nearby areas are the practical steps From Agreement to Action: …. to Build Back Biodiversity

John Patmore is an ecologist based in Brighton, England (Eco21st.com) He established BHWF ( BHWF.org.uk) with Martin Robinson over a decade ago. The Forum looks to promote biodiversity and geodiversity actions and policy across Brighton and Hove. 

* The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development 

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May 11, 2001 –  Bush Signs Oil Lobbying Organization’s Executive Order

Twenty two years ago, on this day, May 11, 2001, George “Supreme Court got me this gig” Bush did his masters’ bidding.

President Bush signs Executive Order 13211. It is a verbatim copy of a “suggested” order sent in March by American Petroleum Institute official James Ford (see March 20, 2001). The executive order, enigmatically titled “Actions Concerning Regulations That Significantly Affect Energy Supply, Distribution, or Use,” exempts certain industry actions from federal review. [White House, 5/22/2001; Dubose and Bernstein, 2006, pp. 17] AND in a letter of 11 May 2001 The White House asked the US NAS for assistance in identifying the areas in the science on climate change where there are greatest certainties and uncertainties. The NAS was also asked for its views on whether there are any substantive differences between the IPCC reports and the IPCC summaries. An answer to the request was expected in early June, i.e., within less than a month. The NAS quickly appointed a special committee under the chairmanship of Dr Ralph Cicerone, chancellor of the University of California, Irving, CA, and a well-known researcher in atmospheric chemistry (and president of the NAS since 2005). Its report was ready in June…

(Bolin, 2007) Page 179

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 374ppm. As of 2023 it is 423ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that George Bush who had become president thanks to the decision of Supreme Court judges appointed by his dad was not losing any time in a bolstering the oil and gas industries and began trying to delay any action on climate change by asking for yet another appraisal because while an appraisal is being done you can defer any questions about what you are going to do. Once the appraisal has been done you can say that you’re studying and considering it and that buys you more time.  And maybe something else will come along and distract everyone and in any case you are demoralising and exhausting your opponents.

What I think we can learn from this

This is a standard technique that incumbents use to delay things to talk out the clock to make it at the same time seem as if they care about the issue because why else would they be calling for scientists to investigate, so it’s a win-win. It’s a deeply deeply cynical manoeuvre; it should be noted that the US government had been asking for these appraisals since 1979 and they always come back the same way. So this was not a disinterested search for knowledge – this was a delaying tactic by a deeply irresponsible man-child.

What happened next

The NAS delivered its appraisal and to precisely nobody’s surprise it said that climate change was real and things urgently needed to be done about it. Bush of course did nothing except make the problem worse.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong?  Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

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May 6, 2004 – Australian Prime Minister John Howard meets business, to kill renewables

Nineteen years ago, on this day, May 6, 2004, Australian Prime Minister John Howard convened a meeting of the Low Emissions Technology Advisory Group in order to …  get them to help him kill off renewables. This is really quite extraordinary. 

The Federal Government and fossil-fuel industry executives discussed ways to stifle growing investment in renewable energy projects at a secret meeting earlier this year.

Prime Minister John Howard called the meeting on May 6, five weeks before releasing the energy white paper on June 14.

The white paper favours massive investment in research to make fossil fuels cleaner, at the expense of schemes boosting growth in renewable energy.

Mr Howard called together the fossil-fuel-based Lower Emissions Technology Advisory Group to seek advice on ways to avoid extending the mandatory renewable energy targets scheme.

Anon, 2004. PM called talks to derail renewable energy The Age, October 3, 

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 380.8ppm. As of 2023 it is 420ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that there was a federal election coming. Opposition Leader Mark Latham was having some success, talking about renewables. The existing renewable scheme that had grudgingly started in 2002, was proving more successful than Howard wanted. Vestas had opened up a factory in Tasmania. And it was all looking as if Howard wasn’t going to be able to continue to easily rubbish renewables and therefore he tried to call in favours. We only know about this because it was leaked later that year.

What I think we can learn from this 

The slowness of the arrival of renewables is not simply a question about whether the technology is not ready or “Oh, the business models aren’t ready.” There is also often explicit effective resistance from business and from government. It’s rare for them to be caught as red-handed as this. It didn’t seem to have much short term damage for Howard who won the 2004 Election.

What happened next

The Vestas factory in Tasmania shut down. Australian progress on renewables was slowed. John Howard deserves to rot in a fiery hell for what he did to Australia but personally, I don’t believe in hell so I’d just be happy to see him rot in a prison cell in The Hague on trial for crimes against humanity.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong?  Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.