Category: United Kingdom

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Activism United Kingdom

November 17, 2018 – XR occupy five bridges in London

Five years ago, on this day, November 17, 2018, the new sexy climate group “Extinction Rebellion” occupied five bridges in London.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/17/thousands-gather-to-block-london-bridges-in-climate-rebellion

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 408.7ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that Extinction Rebellion was dreamed up in 2018 by Gail Bradbrook, and Roger Hallam and others. People did some stickering and fly posting. They announced a “declaration of rebellion” in Parliament Square at the end of October, and this was their next big media stunt. 

And how many of those 1000s of people are now sitting in front of their televisions, blaming themselves for not having the tenacity to stay with it? 

[To do – get someone who was there on the day in London, to give them memories of the day, and ideally, something that they wrote at the time.]

What I think we can learn from this

It’s not their fault. It was a toxic environment, the chaotic process, but we don’t know how to do social movement organisations. We just cut straight to the March on Washington in 1963, and people are giving “I Have a Dream” speeches, not understanding all that went for the so called star system. 

What happened next

XR held two “rebellions” in 2019. The second was a damp-ish squib, and then came the pandemic. They’ve never really been able to re-heat the souffle, and at least in Manchester, the local groups tanked.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

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United Kingdom

November 16, 2021 – Chancellor cuddles up to oil bosses, of course.

Two years ago, on this day, November 16, 2021, a UK politician mouthed the right climate pieties at COP26, then told the oil companies “keep drilling, baby.”

Gosden, E. (2022) Kwarteng courted oil bosses after Cop26; Energy secretary encouraged North Sea drilling. The Times, January 3, p.23 – (Kwarteng schmoozed on Nov 16)

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly416ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that the Glasgow climate COP had happened. Apparently 1.5 was still alive. The British state was happy enough with its performance and now back to business as usual. The Energy and Climate Secretary of State Bay was back to palling around with oil companies and letting them do further drilling in the North Sea.

What I think we can learn from this

that the ink does not need to be dry on some precious “hold hands sing Kumbaya” announcement of climate good intentions before politicians will go back to doing what they do in the interests of capital accumulation and their own post-political career and comfort.

What happened next

Kwasi Kwarteng delivered a mildly consequential mini budget in October of 2022, five minutes before Liz Truss threw him under the bus in a futile effort to save her own skin.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

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United Kingdom

November 13, 1963 –  Ritchie Calder warns of trouble ahead because of carbon dioxide…

On this day, 60 years ago, November 13, 1963, the peace campaigner, journalist and science communicator (including as first editor of New Scientist)  Ritchie Calder gave a clear warning about the build-up of carbon dioxide, at a meeting of the Town and Country Planning Association  in London.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 319ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures

The context was that Ritchie-Calder had been aware of the issue – at the latest – by early 1954, when he wrote about the issue for a national newspaper. By 1963, the first meeting entirely devoted to carbon dioxide build-up had already taken place in Washington DC. Calder was almost certainly aware of this…

What we can learn.  

We knew. We knew. We knew.

What happened next

Five years and two weeks later, Ritchie-Calder again referenced carbon dioxide build-up, in his “Hell on Earth” Presidential Address to the Conservation Society.

Seriously, long before Stockholm, long before Thatcher, we knew…

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Academia United Kingdom

November 9, 2000 – Tyndall Centre launched

Twenty three years ago, on this day, November 9, 2000, an academic collaboration finally ground into existence, after a 1997 Tony Blair election promise…

The Tyndall Centre is a national United Kingdom centre for trans-disciplinary research on climate change. It is dedicated to advancing the science of integration, to seeking, evaluating and facilitating sustainable solutions to climate change and to motivate society through promoting informed and effective dialogue. The Centre was constituted in October 2000 and launched officially on 9 November 2000.

http://www.preventionweb.net/english/professional/contacts/v.php?id=2713

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 369.7ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that Blair’s Labour Party had made a lot of promises in the run up to the 1997 election. One of these was the creation of a scientific body in the UK to look at climate change. And so on this day in November 2000, over three years later – nice sense of urgency Tony! The Tyndall Centre had been launched.

This was against the backdrop of stalling international climate negotiations in the midst of the uncertainty about whether Gore or Bush would be president in the end. George W. Bush’s dad’s mates on the Supreme Court fixed it for him. With the collapse of the negotiations at The Hague it was all looking pretty bleak. 

What the Tyndall Centre would do, if one were to be cynical about it, is offer institutional homes for disciplinary and interdisciplinary work around climate change. Ultimately there’s something deeper and longer going on here isn’t there? There is a failure to really solve these problems. So you have to ask yourself, why do we keep doing what we keep doing? It’s because this change is really difficult and it’s comforting to keep doing what we’re doing. Fewer costs. It’s easier to be a winner on a losing team than a loser on a losing team because even if you switch, you yourself will not derive benefit, but I digress.

What I think we can learn from this

Academics gonna academic. It’s no bad thing.

What happened next

Tyndall is still going, still producing great work (I mean that sincerely, not snarkily!).

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

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Australia Denial United Kingdom

November 8, 2013 – “One religion is enough” says John Howard

Ten years ago, on this day, November 8, 2013, John Howard gave a speech at the Global Warming “Policy” “Foundation” with the title “One Religion is Enough“

and 

Same day – Typhoon Haiyan, known in the Philippines as Typhoon Yolanda, was one of the strongest tropical cyclones ever recorded, which devastated portions of Southeast Asia, particularly the Philippines.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 396,7ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that John Howard had been booted out as Prime Minister, and even MP, partly because he’d been such a terrible dickhead on climate, as befits old white conservative men. 

The other context is that some “charity” called the Global Warming Policy Foundation had been set up and were holding annual lectures. So it seemed like a good idea to get little Johnny on.

It’s an interesting title, isn’t it, “one religion is enough”? Well, if we’re only going to have one religion, my vote is a for either a particularly humane form of Buddhism, or Fuck it, let’s just go to paganism. Let’s get rid of the bearded sky gods. And especially when the bearded sky gods have been whittled down to one, because that seems to have caused no end of trouble. Or, if not caused, it been a useful adjunct to keeping that particular shit show on the road…

Aaand breathe….

What I think we can learn from this is that anti-reflexive organisations are good at gaming the media, they knew that this would get outrage and clicks. Makes them feel like they exist. 

What happened next

Well, the weather vane, Tony Abbott also gave a speech at the GWPF, and it’ll be interesting to see if the Global Warming Policy Foundation finds Scott Morrison too much of a reputational risk to them.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

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United Kingdom

November 5, 1969 – House of Lords question about the greenhouse effect

Fifty four years ago, on this day, November 5, 1969, Jestyn Phillips, a member of the House of Lords said the following – 

VISCOUNT ST. DAVIDS My Lords, can my noble friend say whether he and British Railways have taken account of the fact that what were abnormal temperatures last summer may not be abnormal if we continue to discharge carbon dioxide into the air by the burning of various fossil carbons, so increasing the greenhouse effect?

https://api.parliament.uk/historic-hansard/lords/1969/nov/05/railways-use-of-continuous-welded-rail

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 324.6ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that it was clear that some members of the Lords were paying attention to what was being written in newspapers, magazines (including the Listener in April 1969). And the idea of the greenhouse effect was out there and of concern by 1969, including in the Financial Times and so forth. 

What I think we can learn from this

By November 1969, “even” politicians were talking about it, drawing (possibly fallacious) connections.

What happened next

In January 1970 a TV programme “And On the Eighth Day”, directed by Richard Broad, appeared.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

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Agnotology Denial United Kingdom

November 3, 1990 – more smears about the IPCC, in the Financial Times 

Thirty three years ago, on this day, November 3, 1990, the normally sane Financial Times published a brain fart of an article

Thomas, David (1990) The cracks in the greenhouse theory. Financial Times 3 November

There were claims that the IPCC organisers had deliberately excluded strong dissenters, such as Richard Lindzen, Hugh Elsaesser and Fred Singer, from participating in the IPCC. One unnamed scientist went so far as to claim that the supporters of the greenhouse theory ‘behave like Hitler’ by conspiring to prevent critics from publishing their conclusions in leading scientific journals (quoted in Thomas, 1990.)

Paterson, M (1996) Page 45

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 354.4ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that the IPCC’s first assessment report had been delivered two months earlier. Since then, there had been fierce contestation of it. And this article in the FT was part of the push back ahead of the second World Climate Conference in Geneva and the imminent start of the climate negotiations. So the FT was wanting to cater to its various members, readers, some of whom would want to doubt awkward physical realities.

Eleven months earlier, Forbes had run a similar piece of nonsense (Link).

What I think we can learn from this

I am not suggesting that the Global Climate Coalition or the British Coal board phoned up the editor of the FT and ordered him to order an underling to write this. That’s not how power works. That’s not how the world usually works, 99.99 times out of 100. 

What happened next

The FT stopped being quite so fucking useless on climate change. It’s currently quite good (especially when they publish my letters).

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

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United Kingdom

November 1, 1959 – M1 motorway section opened

Sixty four years ago, on this day, November 1, 1959

,“The first section of the M1 motorway, the first inter-urban motorway in the United Kingdom, is opened between the present junctions 5 and 18, along with the M10 motorway and M45 motorway.”

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 316ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that there had been an enormous boom in car ownership after the second world war. These were becoming necessities for many people, as out of town developments sprung up. They were also a sign that you had “made it” and a symbol of freedom, modernity, etc. And of course, with all of the branch chain lines getting a “Beeching” that pushed people into cars. But driving down country roads is risky and slow. Therefore, “I know, let’s have motorways modelled on the US Highway System.”

“

“What I think we can learn from this

When you do “bottom up” decision-making and you cater to the individual rather than aggregate demand, you get perverse infrastructure like motorways, which is hostages to fortune. And then you just keep building and keep building. You get induced demand, the easier you make it for people to drive, the more they will drive. But at the same time, if you don’t have bypasses around congested town centres, it also goes tits up… See also The Standard Oil, Firestone rubber GM conspiracy 

What happened next

You get the Buchanan Report, you get growing concerns about air quality and what is being done to town centres. And all of this feeds into concern about the loss of wildlife and the planet getting paved. And you see the British environmental movement slowly grinding to life. And of course in the early-mid 1990s the environment movement fighting the motorway movement to a standstill at least for a while. And the emissions climb, and people buy ever bigger cars…

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

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United Kingdom

November 1, 1974 – UK civil servants writing to each other on “Climatology”

Forty nine years ago, on this day, November 1, 1974, a senior Civil Servant wrote to the chief scientific advisor about climate research

“In 1974, the Met Office had marked an expanding interest in climate by starting a working party on world climatology, ‘with specific emphasis on climatic change’, under J.S. Sawyer, the Met Office’s director of research” CAB 164/1379. ‘Climatology’, Smith to Warren, 1 November 1974. Sawyer had written tentatively on anthropogenic global warming in 1972: J.S. Sawyer, ‘Man-made carbon dioxide and the “greenhouse” effect’, Nature 239 (1972), 23-26.

Agar 2015

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 330ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that “climatic” change – whether caused by man or natural fluctuations – was on the agenda of those who had to worry about the future as part of their day jobs. National Security Adviser and noted war criminal Henry Kissinger had made a speech to the UN General Assembly (April 15, 1974), the CIA weighed in with some food shortage. The Limits to Growth people were still around. And, of course, the oil shock was doing very interesting things to people’s economies and livelihoods. So the idea of setting up a working group to look at climatic conditions was not surprising.

[It would be interesting to know what the terms of reference particularly but I then would need to do that I wouldn’t need to go and look at the archives myself.] 

What I think we can learn from this is that the wheels of bureaucracy grind – it takes time to get anything to happen. And always, always watch for the terms of reference.

What happened next

Eventually, by various means, and against Met Office resistance, an interdepartmental committee on climate started meeting in 1978. It produced a report, which Margaret Thatcher then ignored…

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Categories
United Kingdom

October 31, 2018 – Extinction Rebellion makes its declaration of rebellion

Five years ago, on this day, October 31, 2018, XR gathered in Parliament Square…

Declaration of Rebellion parliament square XR https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6hVZVJwM50

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 408.7ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that the UK climate movement had basically been evaporated. After Copenhagen, the implosion of the Climate Camp, the revelation of the undercovers, the NGOs, having a budget crisis and not being able to do any real campaigning on legislation, because you never know if you’re going to be that far from an election (i.e. the Conservative government had made some very effective laws minimising the ability of NGOs to speak the truth or to campaign and this is one of David Cameron’s forgotten legacies). 

There were, of course, very successful environmental campaigns – fracking was stopped. But over all, on the climate issue per se, nobody was reclaiming any power.

So into that vacuum came Extinction Rebellion, which had been promulgated earlier that year. I remember having seen stickers with the angular hourglass on lampposts in Manchester from the summer onwards.

The timing was brilliant, because it had been a very hot summer, and the IPCC 1.5 degrees report had finally come out.

What I think we can learn from this

Organisations which benefit from exploiting a vacuum often get high on their own supply. They feel that they don’t need to pay attention to the rest of the actors in the ecosystem, because those actors have, by definition, failed. So the tone is very exuberant, it’s very emotion-based. It relies on ever greater amounts of publicity, hope and hype. And it is, in every sense, unsustainable. And so it came to pass with XR, which has splintered into tiny local actions and endless begging emails, while the energy is in its off-shoot, “Just Stop Oil”.

What happened next

Extinction Rebellion occupied some bridges with the agreement of the Met and in 2019, held wildly, quite, “successful” – depending on your metrics “rebellion.” By the end of 2019, it was clear that the moment was passing. The pandemic has helped to paper that over, but now what we’re left with is well, the hardcore of Just Stop Oil, while the rest of the climate movement has not revivified.

And here we are.

See also, my Conversation piece about “what next for XR”

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.