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Cultural responses United States of America

“Why are they lying to our children?” – what a 40 year old propaganda campaign can tell us about today (and tomorrow’s) cultural battles. #Climate #CorporatePropaganda

Forty years ago today (August 16, 1984) the New York Times, the “national” paper of the USA (1) ran a piece of particularly crafty propaganda.  It was a paid full-page advert, on page 23, from the oil giant Mobil (2).  The title of this masterpiece was “Why are they lying to our children?”, and the sordid episode has a lot to tell today and tomorrow’s climate campaigners – and for that matter anyone else interested in how fossil fuel interests have, with enormous success, sought to shape ‘common sense’ in democratic societies.  

Short version:  they don’t do it with chemtrails, or subliminal advertising. They do it with brute force and with subtlety, with repetition and repetition and repetition.  And they’ve been doing it for a very long time (3).

Mobil had been running “editorial adverts” – a few hundred words of text about an issue du jour for over a decade at this point. These were the brainchild of a PR guru called Herb Schmerz, and you can learn more about them, and him, by going to this brilliant podcast by Drilled. There are some excellent spoofs of the ads by the German artist and provocateur Hans Haacke – for example MetroMobilitan.

The key point is that this is a really really clever form of propaganda, for several reasons. First because it doesn’t look like propaganda; it doesn’t deploy the crude and easily-spotted techniques of clapping seals, smiling dolphins and blue skies. Second, (and related) anyone who calls it propaganda can be accused of trying to refuse corporations a voice in public debate, since Mobil is at least trying to put a *rational* case, and isn’t that what liberals keep claiming they want, after all?  Third (and related to the second) any attempt to respond to the half-truths and elisions in the adverts (the creators of these adverts are too canny to indulge in outright falsehoods) will take up at least as much time and energy, exhausting a third-party’s patience.  This isn’t quite a Gish Gallop, but it is Gish Gallop-adjacent.  Fourth, by setting out a ‘reasoned’ argument, Mobil is consciously setting the frame of the debate. And as various people have said, if they can get you asking the wrong questions then it doesn’t matter what the answers are.  Finally, Mobil, through these ‘helpful’ adverts gets to claim a place as just another citizen in the ‘ideal speech community’, the term that the German philosopher Jurgen Habermas used to describe the situation where rich and poor, lion and lamb hash things out reasonably, arriving at agreed truths. Yeah, right.

So, this advert, forty years ago today, will have raised no eyebrows – it was just one of a very long line.  Indeed, the only reason I am focussing on it at all is that I saw it in a collection released by Geoffrey Supran and Naomi Oreskes and was struck by the line about “why are they lying to our children” and its mention of a book by that name. I wanted to know more, and didn’t have to go down too many electronic rabbit holes to find out more.

Before I get to the specifics, there’s one more piece of historical context that will help you understand what this is all about. 

What is on the curriculum (overt and hidden) and how it is taught has always been a topic of contestation (and there’s nothing more political than who is allowed to learn to read – famously, slaves were forbidden from doing so in the American south).

However, matters had come to a head in the decade before this advert. You see, the aftermath of the 1960s and early 1970s was a period of serious concern to conservatives.  That period had seen the black civil rights struggle give birth to the anti-war movement, to second-wave feminism, to gay rights, latino rights, indigenous movements, and to ecology movements. The “settled” consensus of the 1950s – that elite heterosexual white men, with science as their handmaiden, would rule, with women in the kitchen, people of colour (the words they used were different then!) in their place, queers in the closet and nature under the DDT etc. thumb – all that was gone by the early 1970s (4). If you want to stay in charge, well, you rely on unthinking consent: it’s a nightmare when the people you are trying to control get an education and are able to create their own perceptions of the world, share those, refuse to believe what you want and need them to believe  (that this is the best of all possible worlds and that if they know their place everything will be okay, or at least tolerable).

The elites were alive to the threat, and were casting around for how to respond. There’s a key document that explains all this rather well.  Almost exactly thirteen years before the Mobil advert, a memo (August 23, 1971) landed on the desk of Eugene B. Sydnor, Jr., , the Chairman of the “Education Committee” of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

 The memo was written by Lewis Powell (Wikipedia), soon to be nominated as a Supreme Court justice by President Richard Nixon.  It’s known as “the Powell Memorandum.”

Greenpeace USA describe it as “a corporate blueprint to dominate democracy”, and they’re not wrong. Here’s some of the sense of what the memo says

“Business must learn the lesson . . . that political power is necessary; that such power must be assiduously cultivated; and that when necessary, it must be used aggressively and with determination—without embarrassment and without the reluctance which has been so characteristic of American business.”

 “Strength lies in organization, in careful long-range planning and implementation, in consistency of action over an indefinite period of years, in the scale of financing available only through joint effort, and in the political power available only through united action and national organizations.”

The book itself

One source (I will come back to this, promise!) tells the origin myth of the book itself;

“New York University Dean, Dr Herbert London learned [about the lack of ‘balance’ in school education the hard way. One day his 13-year-old daughter came home from school with tears in her eyes to say, “I don’t have a future.” She showed her farther a paper shed been given in school. It listed horrors that it claimed awaited her generation, Including air pollution so bad that everyone would have to wear a gas mask.

“Well, as a result of that incident, London wrote a book…”

The book was published by the Hudson Institute, a cold-war think tank set up in the 1961 by Herman Kahn (one of a few possible inspirations for Stanley Kubrick’s ‘Dr Strangelove’) and fellow nuclear war strategists. Its purpose was to argue for, in effect, ever-more nuclear weapons (it can be thought of as a precursor to the George C. Marshall Institute, set up at about the same time as this Mobil op-ed was published, to argue forReagan’s Space Defense Initiative aka “Star Wars” – for more on that, see Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway’s book “Merchants of Doubt”).

Its author, Herbert London, was at the time an academic at New York University  It was his first second solo book(5), and doubtless he was happy for the foreword from Herman Kahn (6). The book was published in 1984. You can borrow it here (please donate some money, on general principles, to the Internet Archives folks).

Before I hone in on what (little) it has to say specifically about climate change, we need to back up to the Powell Memorandum. There’s something in it that might put the sweet origin myth above, of a concerned dad simply trying to protect the mental health of his daughter – in a new light.

Evaluation of Textbooks 

The staff of scholars (or preferably a panel of independent scholars) should evaluate social science textbooks, especially in economics, political science and sociology. This should be a continuing program. The objective of such evaluation should be oriented toward restoring the balance essential to genuine academic freedom.

(Powell, 1971, p.16-7)

And what did London magically set out to do – why, exactly this.  What a coincidence…

 It’s also worth pausing to think about the clever rhetorical work being done by the very clever title. “Why are they lying to our children?”

Let’s take the third word first – there is a nefarious and identifiable “They“.  An alien force that needs to be combatted, defeated. This “they” are the communist eco-freaks, useful idiots of the Soviet Union seeking to undermine the Free West.  You know, all those never-do-wells in the good old days of the 1920s through early 1960s, would have been dealt with via Red Scares and the House Un American Activities Committee and so on (all pre-dating Senator Joseph McCarthy, by the way).

They are trying to wickedly deceive sweet innocent children.  Not “some” children (their own, for instance) but “our” – meaning the writers of this work are taking responsibility for ALL children, for everyone’s children  (the “They” do not get to have any children of their own in this, something akin to JD Vance’s attack on childless cat ladies). 

Finally (!!)  the book itself. I’ve not read the whole thing (life is short, and it is way later than you think).  Specifically on climate change, the book has little to say (6).   Ironically, London first finds himself having to correct scientific errors in the textbooks he is reviewing.

“Moreover, their analysis of environmental issues includes several egregious errors. For example, carbon dioxide does not have a cooling effect on the climate, as was suggested in silver Burdett’s geography text cited above” (emphasis in original) (London, 1984, page 64)

A few pages later London quotes from the 1981 edition of a classic textbook (first published in 1968) called  The Economic Problem by Heilbroner and Thurow, which mentions carbon dioxide build-up.

London is largely dismissive.  

“The ‘greenhouse effect’ to which the authors refer is caused not so much from combustion in general as from the combustion of fossil fuels in particular. Which does increase the amount of carbon dioxide in the air. If the effect is ‘the most serious threat’ we face, a concerted effort to cope with this threat to our environment would mean solving the problems associated with the generation of nuclear power, which is clean, and the manufacture of synthetic fuels that are low in carbon content. But Heilbroner and Thurow don’t make this point, nor does any other textbook that includes the issue.” (London , 1984, p.93-4).

And .. that’s it. 

If I can editorialise for a minute – for a book that sought to allay his thirteen year old daughter’s(7) fears, well – what a sloppy effort. He seems more interested in proving that he is smarter than some secondary school textbooks, and fulfilling the suggestion in the Powell Memorandum.

What happened next

Earlier I quoted a mystery guest on the subject of the origin myth of the book.  And that mystery guest is… drumroll please… take a bow… give it up for… President Ronald Wilson Reagan!  On February 28, 1985, shortly after his second inauguration (Morning in America) gave a speech at the Annual General Meeting of the National Association of Independent Schools.

The book was only mentioned in passing, though, as noted above, Reagan found time to include the heart-string-tugging origin myth. He said of the book that it “documents the myths that are taught in so many of our schools. Our children should know, London argues, that because our society decided to do something about pollution, our environment is getting better, not worse. Emissions of most conventional air pollutants, for example, have decreased significantly, while trout and other fish are returning to streams where they haven’t been seen for decades”

That’s a real sign of success, isn’t it? You know you’ve arrived when your book is getting a shout out from the President of the United States!

The book got a positive review (of course) in the neoconservative journal “Commentary” and popped up in the footnotes of various “anti-reflexive” (see McCright and Dunlap – and this video!)  texts seeking to minimise environmental issues and prosecute the curriculum wars over the following decades.

The last major citation (to date) came ten years ago, when the UK “Global Warming Policy Foundation” regurgitated the origin myth in a report called “Climate Control”, which claimed there was “brainwashing” in the UK’s classrooms. No, I am not linking to it, and really, think twice before wasting your time with their trash: like I said it’s a lot later than you think. By the way, most UK climate denial is like this – a pale imitation and outdated photocopy of better-funded American efforts.

Battles over climate change and US secondary school textbooks have continued.  They’ve involved famed scientists like James Hansen  (see this blog post about April 9, 2008.)

More recently, the Heartland Institute, a climate denialist outfit,  has been trying to muddy the waters by providing “alternative facts” in attractive format to secondary school teachers.

In the UK, Michael Gove, when Secretary of State for Education, tried to have climate removed from the curriculum in primary school. In this he was, ultimately, unsuccessful, thanks to … Ed Davey.

Oh, and London? Well, according to Wikipedia, font of all accurate information

The London Center for Policy Research (LCPR) is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization that was founded in 2012 by London in New York City and defines itself as a boutique think tank created to engage in research and advise on key policy issues of national security, international relations, energy, and risk analysis.[32] The center claims to challenge conventional wisdom where appropriate, add texture to the current deliberations on policy issues and build support for positions that further the national interest and the interest of key allies.[33] The London Center was influential in the staffing and policy direction of the Trump Administration with many of its senior fellows taking on both official and unofficial roles in the administration.[34] The center counts these “Fellows” among its membership: Deroy MurdockGordon G. ChangMonica CrowleyJim WoolseyDerk Jan Eppink, and Walid Phares.

[Hat-tip to a Bluesky chap for this]

What we learn

There is a forever war for the hearts and minds – especially of children. If you can shape their norms, their frames, then, well, that’s half the battle. But as TS Eliot wrote,”There is no such thing as a Lost Cause because there is no such thing as a Gained Cause.”  The conservatives know this, and are in a state of endless anxiety about this (in their way, they are as addicted to apocalypse narratives as the Hallamites, only with much less scientific justification).

So, for progressives, leftists etc, a crucial lesson is that “they” -the “other side” –  are diligent, relatively skilled, and extremely well-funded.  Just because you disagree with them, you shouldn’t under-estimate them. 

This tactic that London (among others) used will continue.  The “won’t someone think of the children”gambit is too useful not to be used again and again, no matter how ludicrous. It frames the anti-reflexives/status quo supporters etc as the good guys, responsible adults merely trying to stop the long-hairs from terrorising sweet innocent children.

In addition, the pattern of the conveyor belt and mutual amplification of influence is still there; of op-ed turning into longer article, into book, that then gets quoted in advertorial or speeches by CEOs.  Politicians then amplify it, it appears in Hansard, all the while gaining “credibility” through repetition, especially when “high status” people in think tanks (junk tanks), university departments etc. Thus are memes built. That’s what they want, anyway. It doesn’t always turn out like that, sometimes it doesn’t land/resonate, they get mugged by reality etc. Counter-memes can also be put forward by “the other side.”…

What to do

  • Educate yourself (this is most effectively and efficiently done with others by the way) by reading widely (see some starters below) and acting in the real world. If you’re after podcasts, you cannot do better than start with Drilled.  Also, throw some money at them.
  • Get involved in a sustainable group that is a rough fit for your politics, and stay involved (this is, for various reasons, really really hard).
  • Don’t be surprised when everything goes sideways very quickly indeed. Instantaneously, on geological timescales.

Further suggested reading

Barley, S. R. (2010). Building an institutional field to corral a government: A case to set an agenda for organization studies. Organization studies, 31(6), 777-805.

Beder, S. 1997. Global Spin: The Corporate Assault on Environmentalism

Carey, A. 1997. Taking the Risk Out of Democracy: 

Chomsky, N. 1993. World Orders, Old and New.

George, S Learning from the Gramscian Right

Kurmelovs, R 2024. Slick

McCright, A. M., & Dunlap, R. E. (2010). Anti-reflexivity. Theory, Culture & Society, 27(2-3), 100-133.

Williamson, J. 1978. Decoding Advertisements: ideology and meaning in advertising

that one from the 1970s by two (French?) authors – can’t remember title

On Herman Kahn

Christopher Hollis, (1964) Dr Strangelove and Dr Kahn The Spectator, February 28, p.11 (21 years to the day before Reagan’s speech, btw)

Casper Skovgaard Petersen (2023) The Eccentric World of Herman Kahn.

On the Powell Memorandum

In this excerpt from Winner-Take-All Politics: How Washington Made the Rich Richer — and Turned Its Back on the Middle Class, authors Jacob S. Hacker and Paul Pierson explain the significance of the Powell Memorandum, a call-to-arms for American corporations written by Virginia lawyer (and future U.S. Supreme Court justice) Lewis Powell to a neighbor working with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. LINK

Powell Memorandum: Attack On American Free Enterprise System

Ford, D. (2023). The “Powell Memo” and the Supreme Court: A Counteroffensive Against the Many. Politics.

On Mobil and so on

Drilled Media – How Oil Companies Manipulate Journalists

Footnotes

(1) There’s a highly entertaining speech by Noam Chomsky, from 1985 that talks about the NYT in, ah, “somewhat unflattering” terms, to do with its “first draft of history function.” Watch this space – or perhaps marchudson.net – for more.

(2) In November 1998 Exxon and Mobil merged.

(3) See the collection of essays by Australian social scientist Alex Carey, under the title “Taking the RIsk Out of Democracy: Corporate Propaganda versus Freedom and Liberty”

(4) In his 1994 book World Orders, Old and New, Noam Chomsky writes about the perceived  “crisis of democracy” in the mid-1970s.  This served as the title of the first book published by the Trilateral Commission.  If you don’t have access to World Orders, Old and New, that’s alright, it’s a topic Chomsky has spoken of many times. There’s this interview in India in January 1996. And here’s something from the Boston Review in 2017 that gives the same flavour

What particularly troubled the Trilateral scholars was the “excess of democracy” during the time of troubles, the 1960s, when normally passive and apathetic parts of the population entered the political arena to advance their concerns: minorities, women, the young, the old, working people . . . in short, the population, sometimes called the “special interests.” They are to be distinguished from those whom Adam Smith called the “masters of mankind,” who are “the principal architects” of government policy and pursue their “vile maxim”: “All for ourselves and nothing for other people.” The role of the masters in the political arena is not deplored, or discussed, in the Trilateral volume, presumably because the masters represent “the national interest,” like those who applauded themselves for leading the country to war “after the utmost deliberation by the more thoughtful members of the community” had reached its “moral verdict.”

To overcome the excessive burden imposed on the state by the special interests, the Trilateralists called for more “moderation in democracy,” a return to passivity on the part of the less deserving, perhaps even a return to the happy days when “Truman had been able to govern the country with the cooperation of a relatively small number of Wall Street lawyers and bankers,” and democracy therefore flourished.

(5) In 1981 London had co-authored “Myths that Rule America.” A googlebooks search suggests it made no mention of carbon dioxide.

(6) Given the internal evidence, it was mostly completed before the September 1983 “battle of the reports”, where the Environmental Protection Agency released a report called “Can we delay a greenhouse warming?” (spoiler, the authors thought “probably not by very much”) and two days later the National Academies of Science released a report saying, in effect “nothing to see here.”

(7) The daughter in question is Stacy London, who most definitely does not share her father’s politics..

Categories
United States of America

August 10, 1978 – Ford Pinto deaths spark class action lawsuit

Forty six years ago, on this day, August 10th, 1978 a car blows up, and corporate malfeasance was revealed…

On their way to a church volleyball practice, the three girls—sisters Lyn (16) and Judy Ulrich (18), and their cousin Donna Ulrich (18)—chugged along U.S. 33 in a dusty 1973 Ford Pinto….

CONTINUES

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 335ppm. As of 2024 it is 424ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that Ford was one of the big three motor companies and had produced lemons in its time. People were dying because of a change that had been made to the Ford Pinto. This change meant that if it was hit from behind, while indicating left, then there was a reasonable chance that a spark would set off the gas tank explosion, and kaboom. Ford had been aware of the problem, but it calculated that recalling vehicles, fixing them and changing the production line would cost more than simply paying out to the families of those killed, injured. And therefore they did what any rational corporation would do. 

What we learn is that there is rationality and logic and there is also utter fucking madness. I would say immorality, but why would you expect a corporation to behave morally? Have you not been paying attention? 

What happened next, Ford got caught. There was a class action lawsuit even and for a little while, people understood that this sort of shit goes on all the time. But the corporate domination of the media means that this message no longer gets through so easily. In a sane world – one that we don’t live in – this would be taught in primary school, and again in secondary school. 

See also – the cargo doors on the plane

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

=

Also on this day: 

August 10, 1980 – “Energy, Climate and the Future” seminar in Melbourne

August 10, 2003 – a UK temperature record tumbles…

Categories
Energy United States of America

July 30, 1979 – synfuels would be sinful…

Forty five years ago, on this day, July 30th, 1979, politicians learn that making synfuels would be a Very Bad Idea.

Panel Warned of Synthetic Fuel Danger By Katherine Ellison, July 31, 1979

A group of scientists, warning of potential ecological imbalances and climatic changes, yesterday urged the government to slow its pursuit of a large-scale synthetic fuels program.

The scientists said the ecological changes could result from higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere — one assured by product of a switch to synfuel production.

They described the so-called “greenhouse effect” whereby heat is trapped close to the earth by increased levels of carbon dioxide, and predicted some long-term effects might be erratic world food production, severe droughts in some regions and costal flooding in others.

link

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 337ppm. As of 2024 it is 426ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that various US administrations had been quite interested in replacing Middle Eastern oil and making money at the same time. But of course, that came with fairly heavy environmental consequences, which climate scientists were at pains to point out.

What we learn is that national security and energy security can compete with other demands. Real energy trilemma at play. And that’s been going on a long time. 

What happened next – the synfuels thing went away, in part because oil prices plummeted. The emissions kept going up though…

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

July 30, 1968 – the UN says yes to an environment conference

July 30, 1979 – scientists warn US Senators about synfuels and carbon dioxide build-up

July 30, 1989 – UK Conservative politician warns “we have at most 25 years to take action.”

Categories
United States of America

July 26, 2008 – Reggae festival for climate protection in New York

Sixteen years ago, on this day, July 26th, 2008, music was the food of life…

New York’s biggest reggae festival will be held in central New York on Saturday July 26th, 2008 at the Rostropovich Amphitheatre in Gelston Castle Estate.

Reggae festival for climate protection is the biggest party for the environment. Come out and celebrate Mother Earth with great music, food, games and activities.

The festival, an all day event on July 26th, 2008 from 12 pm to 12 am is a fun-filled day of music, games, competitions, cultural activities and international cuisine. Awareness to the environment is the overall theme of the festival and a portion of the proceeds will be donated to the Alliance for Climate Protection to support their efforts.

Reggae festival for climate protection in New York

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 386ppm. As of 2024 it is 426ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth had come out in 2006. The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report in 2007. Everyone is running around talking about climate change. Given that reggae’s roots are in resistance to white people being assholes, it’s hardly surprising that there would be a climate themed reggae concert.

What we learn is that we have been trying to be artistic about resistance to the suicide path we are on, but it doesn’t seem to land because those events can cause a surge of emotion and commitment that will fall on stony ground and sterile soil. If there aren’t effective social movement organisations ready to capture it, the seeds can’t grow. And so it came to pass. 

What happened next? More conferences, smoke and concerts. More cons. If you know your history, you will know where you’re coming from.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

July 26, 1967 – Allen Ginsberg tells Gary Snyder it’s “a general lemming situation”

July 26, 1977 – Australians warned about cities being flooded #CanberraTimes

July 26, 1988, – Australian uranium sellers foresee boom times…

Categories
Australia International processes Kyoto Protocol United States of America

July 23, 1997 – US climate envoy wonders what Australian leaders are smoking…

Twenty seven years ago, on this day, July 23rd, 1997, Tim Wirth called out the Australians for being bonkers.

Asked about the economic modelling by the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics (ABARE) on which the Howard Government’s stance is based, he said he had not seen it.

But he was generally sceptical of industry-funded models and said the US Administration believed modelling around the world showed green-house gases could be stabilised at either no economic cost or an economic benefit – a finding strongly at odds with ABARE’s work.

“I think there are some people who plug their own assumptions into models and then they flog those models as if they are the things that are going to define and predict the future of the world,” Mr Wirth said.

“Anybody who believes that an economic model is going to be able to predict to points of percentage of increase or decrease, I’d raise an eyebrow . . . or look at what those people have been smoking, because I don’t believe there’s any way in the world you are going to get that sort of accuracy.”

The ABARE modelling draws such conclusions and was partially funded by industry. “Industry groups . . . have points of view that they are paid to advocate,” he said.

Taylor, L. 1997. US rejects Aust `differentiated’ greenhouse goal. Australian Financial Review, 24 July, p3.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 364ppm. As of 2024 it is 426ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that at COP1 in Berlin in 1995, the rich nations had agreed that they would come to the third meeting with plans for their own emissions reductions. That meeting was to be held in Kyoto. International capital, especially oil and gas and coal, had mobilised ferociously against the science – see the attacks on the IPCC’s. second assessment report. And there were also campaigns in the US against Kyoto, Australia’s government, under that thug John Howard, trying to carve out the sweetest deal they could. And that’s what led Clinton’s climate envoy Senator Tim Wirth to say that he wanted to know what the Australians were smoking because he felt that the claims for special treatment were unjustified and demeaning.

What we learn – you can laugh at denialists and obstructors all you like. That doesn’t make them less formidable.

What happened next well, Australia wore down the other nations, it not only got the 108% so-called “reduction” target. But it also managed to insert a so-called “land clearing” clause, which meant in effect, their emissions reduction target was 130%. So, while Tim Wirth’s jibe was a good one, The Last Laugh belongs to Howard. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

July 23, 1979 – Charney Report people meet – will conclude “yep, global warming is ‘A Thing’.”

July 23, 1987 – Calvin (and Hobbes) versus climate change!

July 23, 1998 – denialists stopping climate action. Again.

Categories
United States of America

July 22, 2010 – Obama’s climate bill dies

Fourteen years ago, on this day, July 22nd, 2010, hopey changey meets reality.

Hulse, Carl, and David M. Herszenhorn. 2010. Democrats Call Off Climate Bill Effort. The New York Times, July 22

See also: https://www.sej.org/headlines/democrats-call-climate-bill-effort

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 390ppm. As of 2024 it is 426ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that Obama had come to office with all the hopey changey vibes. And two Congressman, Waxman and Markey, had tried to push a bill through; shades of Gore Lieberman. And this was the day they ran up the white flag because Obama wasn’t willing to spend more political capital and call the Republicans’ bluff because he’s essentially a neoliberal centrist, with no particular convictions about anything, but my God, there was some soaring rhetoric. I did love the soaring rhetoric. 

What we learn is that climate legislation is difficult because it touches primarily on energy systems, and energy systems are controlled by rich people who want to keep controlling them, keep being rich etc. They have many weapons at their disposal to achieve those aims. That’s kind of banal, but the world is a kind of banal place. 

What happened next? Obama kept giving soaring rhetoric speeches. Climate legislation in the States was dead for another however long, really. And then, eventually along came Joe Biden and the Inflation Reduction Act.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

July 22, 1966 – “The Conservation Society” holds launch event

July 22, 1968 – Gordon Macdonald tries to warn about carbon dioxide build-up…

July 22, 1991 – two #climate idiots on the Science Show

Categories
United States of America

July 22, 1968 – Andrei Sakharov’s manifesto mentions carbon dioxide build up as one to watch…

Fifty six years ago, on this day, July 22nd 1968, the New York TImes finally published the smuggled-out-of-the-Soviet-Union of nuclear physicist Andrei Sakharov

At one point, Sakharov writes the following-

Pollution of Environment

We live in a swiftly changing world. Industrial and water-engineering projects, cutting of forests, plowing up of virgin lands, the use of poisonous chemicals—all such ac­tivity is changing the face of the earth, our “habitat.”

Scientific study of all the interrelationships in nature and the consequences of our interference clearly lags be­hind the changes. Large amounts of harmful wastes of industry and transport are being dumped into the air and water, including cancer-inducing substances. Will the safe limit be passed everywhere, as has already happened in a number of places?

Carbon dioxide from the burning of coal is altering the heat-reflecting qualities of the atmosphere. Sooner or later, this will reach a dangerous level. But we do not know when. Poisonous chemicals used in agriculture are penetrating the body of man and animal directly, and in more dangerous modified compounds are causing serious damage to the brain, the nervous system, blood-forming organs, the liver, and other organs. Here, too, the safe limit can be easily crossed, but the question has not been fully studied and it is difficult to control all these processes.

 The New York Times, July 22, 1968

You can read the full text here – https://www.sakharov.space/lib/thoughts-on-peace-progress-and-intellectual-freedom

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 323 ppm. As of 2024 it is 426ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was the cold war was kinda sorta maybe thawing: the Czechs looked like they were gonna have more wiggle room than the Hungarians twelve years earlier (the tanks hadn’t rolled into Prague yet).

There’s this fascinating stuff about how it all came about…

Van het Reve, a professor of Slavic languages, had arrived in Moscow in 1967 for a two- year stint and was one of the most fearless correspondents in Moscow. While most stayed clear from the dissident movement, Van het Reve became friends with many of them and was not shy about reporting on them in his newspaper. 

After he received a copy of Sakharov’s essay from Amalrik, Van het Reve immediately realized he had something unique in his hands. Here was a prominent nuclear physicist, a member of the upper nomenklatura, or Soviet elite, who openly criticized his government and carefully outlined his vision for the future. In order to maximize the chance of the text reaching the West, Van het Reve decided to give a copy to his colleague Ray Anderson of the New York Times. Both would try to get the text out, and then publish it in their respective newspapers. 

Karel van het Reve translated the text into Dutch and turned the manuscript into a two-part publication. The first part he managed to send out with a person who was apparently able to pass customs without any checking. On July 6, 1968 the first half appeared in Het Parool. Realizing it was an international scoop, Het Parool’s editor in chief in Amsterdam was delighted, and immediately called Van het Reve to tell him he wanted his “sugar cake”, meaning the rest of the text. As they were in a hurry, they decided that Van het Reve would read the entire text over the telephone. Apparently, the KGB did not have a Dutch-speaking censor on hand, and thus in the course of several hours the whole text was read unobstructed, and subsequently the second part also appeared in Het Parool. 6 Ray Anderson was less fortunate. He managed to get the text out, but his editor in New York was very hesitant. He was convinced the text was a fake and refused to publish it in the New York Times. After long deliberations, he agreed that Ray Anderson could write an article in which he summarized Sakharov’s main message. The article was published on July 11, 1968. Gradually, the editor realized that the text was real, and that indeed this prominent physicist was the author, and ten days later, on July 21, 1968 the whole text was published in the New York Times. 

The text above is from The Sakharov Centre publication on the 100th anniversary of his birth.

This was in the middle of Sweden’s efforts to get ECOSOC to say yes to a human environment conference.

What we learn plenty of people knew, plenty early.

What happened next? Sakharov won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1975, sent into internal exile in 1980. The exile ended in 1986. He died in 1989.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrei_Sakharov

https://www.rferl.org/Watchdog/2016/12/22

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

July 22, 1966 – “The Conservation Society” holds launch event

July 22, 1968 – Gordon Macdonald tries to warn about carbon dioxide build-up…

July 22, 1991 – two #climate idiots on the Science Show

Categories
United States of America

July 21, 1977 – Washington Post reports that it’s getting warmer…

Forty seven years ago, on this day, July 21st, 1977, days before the “Energy and Climate” report was released, the Washington Post ran a story…

July 21, 1977, staff writer Paul Valentine wrote a page-one story for the Washington Post headlined “100-Year Trend: Warmer; Confirming What You Feel: Our Summers are Getting Warmer.”

(Sachsman, 2000: 3)

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 334ppm. As of 2024 it is 426ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that the National Academy of Sciences was about to release its Energy and Climate report. Two years in the making, it meant that all things climate-related were newsworthy. The weather had been playing silly buggers for the last few years, crop failures, heat waves in the UK. 

What we learn is that if you’re reading a serious newspaper in 1977 you were aware of the climate issue. Yes, there were still people telling you it was wrong. If you understood 19th century physics though…

What happened next The Energy and Climate report was released a couple of days later. “Warning traffic lights at yellow” said scientist Thomas Malone. And then there was the push for the First World Climate Conference, which happened in Geneva in February of ‘79. We knew enough by then to start shitting ourselves. But we didn’t take action. And so now all we can do is shut ourselves because the emissions keep rising.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

July 21, 1991 – “Greenhouse Action for the 90s” conference leads to “The Melbourne Declaration”

July 21, 2001 – Sleeping protestors beaten by Italian Police

Categories
Academia United States of America

July 19, 1977 – American public hears from a climate scientist

Forty seven years ago, on this day, July 19th, 1977 , Stephen Schneider lays it out.

Appearing on the Johnny Carson Show on July 19, 1977 a year after the original release of The Genesis Strategy, Schneider responded to a series of questions regarding the ability of scientists to predict the weather more than a few days in advance, a prospect that – given his experiences with Kellogg and Smagorinsky early in his career – appeared entirely possible. Other conversation topics ensued, including issues of drought, whether the climate was cooling or warming, and even whether a recent weather fluctuation caused a serious black out in New York City. Given what appeared to be signs that society was increasingly sensitive to even small-scale environmental challenges, Schneider argued for building further resilience into society. “The laws of nature frequently are not in line with some of our laws,” he stated in an attempt to distinguish between natural laws – which are stable and enduring – and man-made laws – which tend to be short-sighted, sporadic, and clumsy. Everything in human decision making, he believed, is a trade-off between risks and benefits and therefore decisions require the incorporation of value judgments to maximize margins of safety in spite of  existing uncertainties.55

 Henderson 2014 Dilemmas of Reticence

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 332ppm. As of 2024 it is 426ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that Stephen Schneider was already well known because of his ice age prediction in 1971. He had just published The Genesis Strategy with co-author Lynne Merizow. Him being on Carson was a big deal, though. I think this is the first time he was on. 

What we learn is that a small number of scientists were trying to communicate this stuff. early on. 

What happened next: Schneider committed a faux pas by going off script and Carson never had him on again. Schneider kept being a public intellectual public figure. He was really good at what he did. RIP Stephen Schneider.

See also this excellent post – https://simpleclimate.wordpress.com/2014/01/04/when-the-climate-change-fight-got-ugly/

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

July 19, 1968 – “man has already rendered the temperature equilibrium of the globe more unstable.”

July 19, 1976 – , Scientist warns “ “If we’re still rolling along on fossil fuels by the end of the century, then we’ve had it.”

Categories
United States of America

July 15, 1988 – “Racing on Capitol Hill for Title of “Mr Greenhouse”

Thirty six years ago, on this day, July 15th, 1988, the satirical “Grant Swinger” took aim at climate policy in an hilarious article “Racing on Capitol Hill for Title of “Mr Greenhouse” in Science and Government Report. He skewers it, absolutely.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 350ppm. As of 2024 it is 426ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that Daniel Greenberg had been doing the spoof Grant Swinger (get it – someone who can swing grants) satirical columns for quite some time. And let’s look at how big science works. And the scramble and scramble a knife fights for funding for prestige. It’s hilarious. 

The context here was also, of course, that it was that long, hot summer. It was post-Hansen and Toronto but before Bush finally came out and said his thing on the campaign trail. 

What we learn is that good satire is timeless, even if the exact targets are no longer present, because human behaviour doesn’t change (the satyricon and Juvenal, etc.) 

What happened next? Grant Swinger kept swinging for the fences. The climate issue burst onto the scene and has kind of stayed there ever since. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

July 15, 1968 – first(?) UK government attention to the possibility of climate

July 15, 1977 – “Heavy Use of Coal May Bring Adverse Shift in Climate”

July 15, 2005 – The “Stern Review” into #climate is announced…