Categories
Australia

Of “carbon credits”, punks and Gish Gallops – the deeper patter(n) in Australia’s climate wars.

Hello to all new Twitter followers – thanks, I hope you like the site.

Let’s start with the unjustly obscure English punk/folk singer TV Smith. Don’t worry, we will quickly get to Australia’s climate wars and the long con of carbon credits.

Smith has been around since, well, punk began in the mid-1970s. I’ve described him – fairly I think – as “Chomsky meets Leonard Cohen, but punk.” The man can do things you don’t often associate with punks.  Like, properly sing.  And write – the man is an insightful compassionate poet and keen observer of, well everything. (1)

He can write about nature, technology, about the sense of futility but endurance in resistance. And he can about the ways that elites seek to discourage challenge. Which is where this story begins.

In his song “More Than This” on his album Misinformation Overload, Smith sets the scene

So the bankers take their seats

With the party elite

In a billionaire’s retreat

Safely out of reach.

And they blame the workers, blame the unions

Blame the slump and blame the boom

And the consumer, blame the system

Blame the losers, blame the victims

And then, the second verse…

So the policies are planned

That we won’t understand

Then the members all shake hands

And the meeting disbands

And they blame the downturn, blame the climate

Even though they’re the ones behind it

Blame the third world, blame the markets

Blame the decoys, blame the targets

And when I watch or read the brilliant coverage of the carbon credits scam (more on those pieces in a minute) my mind is drawn back to those lines

“So the policies are planned

That we won’t understand”

That is to say, I want to make the basic point that a dense and incomprehensible policy, well that is a FEATURE not a bug.  Making it eye-wateringly, brain-shreddingly complex means that the conversation can stay at the level of soundbites, that most people give up trying to understand it and those who do persist seem weird to their friends and are disheartened and CRUCIALLY – you need a lot longer to unpack bullshit than to throw it, and if you’re having to explain it in detail, you are irritating/frustrating potential supporters.  It becomes a “well, we should just leave it to the people who study this all day long.”


This tactic, when used by creationists to try to cast doubt on evolution by natural selection, is called a Gish Gallop, after its main proponent, Duane Gish.  Basically, someone gallops through a whole load of nonsense, and their opponent is then left to either let a load of lies/half-truths go unchallenged (and strengthened) or else take up five or ten more times trying to unpick it all, and probably strengthen it into the bargain.  It’s a no-lose situation for the bullshitters.


Which brings us to the carbon credits saga, the latest in the long line of astonishingly successful tactics used by Australian fossil-fuel interests over the last thirty five years.

They toyed with (but mostly abandoned/subcontraced it out deniably) outright denial. Then they put out the “too expensive” argument, and enlisted various other groups (looking at you CFMEU) to resist both a carbon tax and then an ETS.  They talked with a straightface about technofixes, and got the taxpayer to dig deep. They have now morphed into using a policies-are-planned/Gish Gallop approach, alongside being the fox in the henhouse and benefitting from the fact that lots of potential critics never survived – at an organizational level – the drop in radical-end-of-resistance funding after the Global Financial Crisis. The big groups that might call bullshit are mostly – not all, but mostly – cowed or captured.

The “complexity” takes us back to the days of the tax versus ETS debates (which go back further than 2009, and further than Shergold in 2006/7, but I digress).  An ETS is supposed to be more “efficient” (though that is asserted rather than supported with evidence). But the key benefit, I suspect, beyond being able to make banks and consultancies rich via various wheezes that are politely called “regulatory arbitrage” and the like (academics don’t like to use words like “thievery” or “rorting” – it’s too close to the truth) was this – ETS is complicated compared to a tax, which would be easy to understand, easy to “sell,” if sold right.

And so when the Greens, in early 2010, tried to save something from the wreckage Rudd had caused (see that cartoon by the brilliant @davpope), one of the points was that it would remove the eye-watering complexity.

And they were, ignored.

Look, a con man wants to distract you, to make you think you are seeing one thing when you are actually seeing another. There are various ways to do that. Flattery is one, but so is its opposite.  They want you to believe them, not your “lying eyes” and they want you to doubt your sense-making ability.  So they complicate, they “complexify”, they gish gallop, they bullshit.

Finally, here are three things I’ve read/watched of late that I think are just brilliant at explaining the carbon credits scam. Doubtless there are others.

Crikey piece by Maeve McGregor

The reason Labor is gaslighting the nation about its climate policy and the Greens

The Juice Media video

Nick Feik in the Monthly

The Great Stock’n’Coal Swindle

References

(1) I’ve met him on a number of occasions, and as best I can tell, he’s just a top bloke too.

Categories
Australia Coal

February 25, 1981 – National Party senator nails the climate problem

Forty two  years ago, on this day, February, 25, 1981, Stan Collard, National Party senator (yes, you read that right) worried about climate change aloud, in parliament.

“Our steaming coal exports are mounting. I have no objection to that, except for one thing. I ask: Just how much further can we go with burning these masses of coal and pouring the pollutants, including carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere? One thing that we are not sure of, of course, is the ultimate greenhouse effect that it will have on this continent, maybe even in our lifetime. I think we must consider quite reasonably just where to cry halt to the burning of masses of steaming coal and where we can bring in one of the cleanest methods of power generation, that is, nuclear power generation, until something cleaner and better comes along. I reject the suggestion that the Government is lacking in its planning, but I welcome the opportunity to take part in this debate.”

Senator Collard, 25 February 1981 – Hansard..

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 340.5ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was

By the early 1980s anyone who read a proper newspaper (The Canberra Times, for example) would have been aware of the potential problem. See for example November 24, 1977 – Canberra Times reports “all coal” plan would “flood US cities” or September 15, 1980 – Australian scientists hold “Carbon Dioxide and Climate” symposium in Canberra… If you were pro-nuclear (and iirc Collard was), then the visit of nuclear guru Alvin Weinberg to Australia in 1979 was probably significant.  The problem was ‘in the air’, basically.

What I think we can learn from this

The National Party used to have intelligent serious people in it. Now, it seems, not so much.

What happened next

Collard was ignored Obviously.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong?  Do comment on this post.

Categories
Energy United Kingdom

February 24, 2003 – UK Energy White Paper kinda changes the game (a bit).

Twenty years ago, on this day, February 24, 2003, the UK Blair Government released a very consequential white paper.

On 24 February 2003 the Government published its Energy White Paper “Our energy future – creating a low carbon economy”. The White Paper set out a new energy policy, designed to deal with the three major challenges that confront the UK’s energy system: the challenge of climate change, the challenge of declining indigenous energy supplies, and the need to keep the UK’s energy infrastructure up to date with changing technologies and needs. 

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 375.8ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was

The Blair government was realising that carbon emissions reductions were easy to promise, not quite so easy to deliver.  A 2000 report by the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution had proposed a target of 60% reduction by 2050, and this was adopted in the Energy White Paper. Crucially, the White Paper saw no role for nuclear….

What I think we can learn from this

Getting new ideas into government is an achievement.

Keeping them there is really hard, and the work of generations. And movements.

What happened next

The Nuclear lobby fought back (of course) and by 2005 had converted Tony Blair. Then more fun and hilarity ensued, but no actual building of new nuclear power stations, which always run over budget and behind schedule.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong?  Do comment on this post.

Categories
Ignored Warnings United Kingdom

February 23, 1977 – UK Chief Scientific Advisor worries about carbon dioxide build-up. 

Forty six years ago, on this day, February 23, 1977, as per the wonderful article by Jon Agar, the UK’s Chief Scientific Advisor wrote a prescient memo about carbon dioxide build up…

However, ‘one complicating factor, which will have to be taken seriously’ was carbon dioxide: …” as a result of the increasing use of fossil fuels the atmospheric carbondioxide [sic] content has increased by 10 per cent over the last century. Increased atmospheric carbondioxide leads, via the ‘greenhouse’ effect to an increase in temperature. However, carbondioxide production is usually associated with the production of dust (especially from coal) and particulate material in the atmosphere scatters light and thus leads to a decrease in temperature. It is possible that these two effects cancel, to a first approximation, but it is something that gives rise to a lot of debate; especially among those who wish to build nuclear power stations. Carbondioxide is, of course, soluble but it will take about 1,000 years for equilibrium to be reached between the atmosphere and the ocean; if the dust settles out faster than the carbondioxide dissolves there might be some interesting short-term effects”.

Rounding off a review of climate change, Ashworth gave a prediction:

‘Future forecast—changeable and probably getting worse’. The note is significant because it is the first, recorded instance of the UK’s senior government adviser passing up the chain of command a firm view about climate change, in this case that natural climatic change was an understood fact and anthropogenic climate change a distinct possibility’ TNA CAB 184/567. ‘The weather’, Ashworth to Berrill, 23 February 1977 

(Agar, 2015) See here.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 333.1ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was

The Germans, Swedes and most of all Americans were looking at carbon dioxide build-up and saying “we may have a serious problem”. So was the World Meteorological Organisation.  The idea of an ice age had been put to one side after a Norwich meeting in 1975.  Ashworth was trying to get Berrill and Mason to take it seriously.

What I think we can learn from this

Getting dinosaurs to tap dance, to spot problems on the horizon, is hard going.

What happened next

Ashworth’s efforts were ‘rewarded’, at last, with an interdepartmental committee in late 1978, which produced a “nothing to see here” report. Members of Thatcher’s government tried to keep it from seeing the light of day, but it finally limped out in February 1980. When Ashworth briefed Thatcher, her response was incredulity and “you want me to worry about the weather?”

Meanwhile, the opportunity to start doing something was, of course, lost.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong?  Do comment on this post.

References

Agar, J. (2015). “Future forecast – changeable and probably getting worse”: the UK Government’s Early Response to Anthropogenic Climate Change” Twentieth Century British History, Volume 26, Issue 4, Pages 602–628, https://doi.org/10.1093/tcbh/hwv008 See here.

Categories
Guest post

Court in a trap: of #climate activism and hopes of legal salvation

This is a guest post by Sakshi Aravind (full bio at end of post).

Dr Sakshi Aravind

Where should we look if we must begin to believe adjudication is one of the ways to achieve climate justice? Investing hope in courts may appear unrealistic if, for instance, one were to look at UK courts. This February, the Inner Crown Court sentenced an activist with Insulate Britain to prison for contempt of court.

From what has appeared in the press, the presiding judge had asked the defendant not to refer to climate change as motivation for their actions (where the defendant, along with three others, had blocked a busy junction in the City of London on the 25th October 2021 as a part of Insulate Britain climate campaign). The defendant appears to have referred to climate change in his closing speech, thereby earning the absurd wrath of the Court.

Now, on the face of it, the outcome appears preposterous. This was, after all, a case where people were being prosecuted for protesting on climate change grounds. Surely, they can argue on an accurately reasoned ground that explains why they were blockading the junction in the first place? Was this an instance of misreporting, or did the judge relinquish the need for reasoning, let alone legal reasoning? I can only find out if someone is willing to fill in a wordy form to obtain the transcript from the Court and pay the fees, just like the Digital Support Officer from the registry tells me I should do.

One can imagine why the question of courts, justice and accessibility remain narrowly interpreted and do not extend to interrogating the aftermaths of litigation, including holding the judges accountable in a way that makes more than legal sense.

Should I bother with this little absurdity when the higher courts in the UK have consistently thrown out most of the climate-related strategic litigation in the last few years, even as most other jurisdictions are turning to innovation and curiosity?  

On 16th February, it appeared that the Wolverhampton Magistrate Court assumed a different approach to the Just Stop Oil protestors, who were before the Court for blocking the distribution of oil from the Esso Fuel Terminal in Birmingham in April 2022. While the defendants were given a conditional discharge and ordered to pay costs, the presiding judge was also sympathetic towards their motivation. The judge was alert to the realities of climate change and termed the defendants’ actions one with an “admirable aim”. However, the Court believed that the necessities of consistency and legitimacy—those that characterise the rule of law in the UK—had to be upheld and the defendants convicted. To quote from the sentencing remark:

“Trust in the rule of law is an essential ingredient of society, and it will erode swiftly if judges make politically or morally motivated decisions that do not accord with established legal principles. Indeed I would become the self-appointed sheriff if I acted in such a way.

if good people with the right motivation do the wrong thing it can never make that wrong thing right, it can only ever act as substantial mitigation.”

We only have access to this sentencing remark because the Judicial Office contacted the media to clarify after Just Stop Oil went on a gloating spree misquoting the judge. Not unusual for predominantly white activist groups in the UK to do something cringe-worthy now and then. 

Why do the first and the second instance feel equally absurd? Should one look for hope in environmental movements in the wrong place and lie to themselves and others until the very thing they are hoping for materialises miraculously? Is strategic litigation successful only when a judge pats you on the head and provides a cinematic twist in adjudication?

Whatever the answer to these questions, investing hope in courts must be clear about two things.

First, adjudication is a refined strategy, which may or may not always provide the best possible outcome. But when it does, it is going to be significant and lasting.

Second, where the legal cultures are restrained, one must have realistic expectations about the kinds of environmental litigation that goes to courts.

While self-proclaimed environmental activists are prosecuted, not all cases can be considered environmental litigation, despite how damning such cases may turn out for the domestic criminal justice system. So, there is no need to be disingenuous about the judicial outcome. If we desire indulgence from legal systems and teary-eyed judges, we distract ourselves from the real problem—that of an impenetrable legal system and absurd procedural apparatus that can sweep you away from the system for the most inconsequential of faults.

If we use adjudication for our ends, we must focus on the content and strategy and less on the actors. Unlike the BIPOC fighting for environmental rights elsewhere against murderous regimes that do it lucidly, those in privileged spaces might require some practice. But it is entirely worth the effort.

While hope and optimism are a matter of individual and collective responsibility to some extent, when there comes the point where we must say “F*** hope!” like Australian academic Chelsea Watego tells us, we must understand and wholeheartedly endorse that moment.

Bio:

Sakshi is a Lecturer in Law and Social Justice at the Newcastle Law School, where she teaches environmental law, land law, constitutional law and jurisprudence. She completed her PhD at the University of Cambridge and her BCL at the University of Oxford. She works on comparative environmental law, legal theory, political economy, and climate justice.

You can read her previous guest post on All Our Yesterdays (on environmental racism in NGOs) here, and an interview “Indigenous resistance to extractivism and academic allyship” FULL of insights and also links to post-colonial and indigenous thinkers here, on the Environmental Politics website.

Categories
Activism anti-reflexivity Australia Cultural responses Denial

February 22, 2013 – Idiotic “Damage” astroturf attempted by miners

Ten years ago, on this day, February 22, 2013, some miners went ape, setting up a ludicrous front organisation. Brain-damage indeed.

A Goldfields lobby group is planning to launch an eleventh hour campaign against what it calls “green extremists”.

The group DAMAGE, Dads And Mums Against Green Extremists, is planning advertisements in a Kalgoorlie newspaper in the last week of the state election campaign

Anon, 2013  Goldfields lobby group opposing ‘green extremistsABC. 22 February.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 397ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was

Western Australia is heavily dependent – in every sense – on mining.  Anything that gets between the miners and their cash is regarded as something to be ignored, then smeared and repressed, by any means necessary.

What I think we can learn from this

Sometimes the goon squad tries to develop a sense of humour, as it did with this retronym. It’s usually not very funny though, more pitiable and embarrassing.

And smearing people who think a habitable planet in years to come is a nice idea as “extremists” is, well, an old ploy.

But, you know, sometimes it goes all step on a rake/Streisand effect.

What happened next

The Libs won the 2013 State election. 

But the Greens?  The Greens were glad of the attempted “damage” to their brand. As one their MPs Robin Chapple said after the election

“I thank Tim Hall, the Greens candidate for the seat of Kalgoorlie. In Kalgoorlie, I also thank an organisation called Dads And Mums Against Green Extremists. DAMAGE was set up specifically to target the Greens, but in fact it helped to retain our vote by focusing on the Greens and identifying some of the issues it stands for. Many years ago former federal member of Parliament Michael Beahan told me that if your opposition is invisible, the worst thing you can do is identify them. Until the establishment of DAMAGE, the Greens to a large degree had been invisible in the Kalgoorlie media. But in the last two to three weeks of the election, the Greens were front and centre in the media and retained its vote. Michael Beahan’s point was that if somebody is not grabbing the attention, do not highlight them, but DAMAGE did exactly that.” 

https://www.parliament.wa.gov.au/Hansard/hansard.nsf/0/1fbe4e6dd9479fbb48257b8a00135769/$FILE/C39%20S1%2020130611%20p1133c-1142a.pdf

The cultures of extractivism? They continue.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong?  Do comment on this post.

Categories
Austria

 Feb 21, 1978 – “Carbon dioxide, climate and society” workshop

Forty five years ago, on this day, February 21 1978, a workshop took place at the Cold War lek known as IIASA, in Austria.

Carbon dioxide, climate and society – Proceedings of a IIASA workshop co-sponsored by WMO, UNEP and SCOPE, (Laxenburg, Austria) 21-24 Feb 1978.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 335.2ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was

In the US the 1977 NAS report had come out.  UNEP were hosting meetings with the WMO Preparations were underway for the First World Climate Conference, to be held in February 1979.  IIASA had been looking at Energy and Climate for a while, including with previous workshops in 1975 and this one in 1976 about Climate and Solar Energy.  Some of the big names – Flohn, Nordhaus etc, were around.

What I think we can learn from this

Smart people were “on it” quite early (i.e. 20 years after Plass, Revelle, Bolin, Keeling et al had seen what the problem was).  They scratched their heads and couldn’t see easy ways forward Because there weren’t any. There certainly aren’t any now. 

What happened next

This meeting and others fed into the late 1970s awareness of the problem (among a tiny number of people!)

IIASA kept having consequential meetings on climate (see their stuff on CCS in the early 2000s)

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong?  Do comment on this post.

References

Schrickel, I. (2017)  Control versus complexity: approaches to the carbon dioxide problem at IIASAWynne, B. (1984) The Institutional Context of Science, Models, and Policy: The IIASA Energy Study. Policy Sciences

Categories
United States of America

February 20, 1966 – US Senators told about carbon build-up by physicist

Fifty seven years ago, on this day, February 20, 1966, another US senate hearing got an allusion to trouble ahead, from a particle physicist called Leland Haworth.

“Another thing that is in a strict sense a pollutant but not usually thought of as such is the carbon dioxide that comes from all our burning of fossil fuels — coal, oil, gas, and so forth — which is adding to the carbon dioxide content of the air. It is not a pollutant in the sense of doing any harm to us directly, but it could change the temperature balance of the world.”

 — Leland Haworth, hearing on weather modification

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 321.6ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was

The President’s address to Congress in February 1965 had mentioned build-up of C02, and a report that came out in November did likewise. The National Science Foundation was doing further work on this, which Haworth would have been well aware of. There had been a report, released in late 1965 on the topic, which had looked at David Keeling’s measurements (as per Gordon MacDonald to Oppenheimer and Boyle, 1990).

What I think we can learn from this

A problem can be on the sidelines for a long time, and may even disappear into nothing.  For a problem to become an issue will be, usually, the end result of a lot of hard work, and a few capitalised-upon disasters…. It took a while for “climate change” to break through (30 years, when it probably only needed 20 – there is a plausible alternative history narrative where by the late 1970s, the issue gets dealt with (though probably would have required the late-Brezhnev era Soviet Union to innovate, so, maybe not so plausible?!).

What happened next

By the late 1960s, more work was being done, more talk about it, including in the context of the Americans wanting a non-napalming-babies issue to talk about internationally (see Moynihan September 1969 memo). The American Association for the Advancement of Science was getting in on the act too, and by 1970, most people talking about air pollution would at least mention in passing the (potential) climate problem.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong?  Do comment on this post.

Categories
Carbon Capture and Storage IPCC

 February 19, 2003 – “CCS to be studied by IPCC”

Twenty years ago, on this day, February 19 2003, carbon capture and storage got another nudge forward, at least in terms of rhetoric…

19 to 21 Feb 2003 As discussed earlier, the 2002 Geneva meeting produced a plan for an exploratory workshop on the issue, which took place in November 2002 in Regina, Canada. The actual process of report preparation began after the formal decision to compile the report, made at the IPCC meeting in February 2003 in Paris.

(Narita, 2012: 90)

https://archive.ipcc.ch/meetings/session20/final-report.pdf

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 375.8ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was

In the aftermath of the President George “The Supreme Court got me the gig” Bush having pulled the USA out of the Kyoto Protocol negotiations, attention turned to various techno-fixes, including Carbon Capture and Storage, which had been in the background/on the drawing board for a decade plus.

Longer term context – some had clearly been eyeing the deep oceans as places to dump waste, and this had gotten the ‘right’ scientists curious…

“Second, ocean mixing. Here too Revelle had a long-established curiosity, and here too nuclear energy pushed the topic forward. The wastes from nuclear reactors must be disposed of somewhere, and the ocean floor seemed a likely choice. In 1955 when Revelle spoke of studying ocean circulation he emphasized the need to bury the “unbelievable quantities of radioactive substances” expected to pour from civilian reactors…”

Weart 1997 342

What I think we can learn from this

Dreams of technological salvation are very popular, but always need someone to write them.  And the money to pay those people to write those fantasies has to come from somewhere…

What happened next

The IPCC’s special report on CCS came out in early 2005, and was  a very big deal – an example of the halo effect of the credibility of impact science being lent to production science.  But the CCS plants have still not yet been built, and the ones that did were all about Enhanced Oil “Recovery”.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong?  Do comment on this post.

Categories
Academia Australia Science Scientists

February 18, 2011 – Scientist quits advisor role (because ignored on climate?)

Twelve years ago, on this day, February 18, 2011 Australia’s chief scientific advisor Penny Sackett downed tools.
She said in her statement – “”Institutions, as well as individuals, grow and evolve, and for both personal and professional reasons the time is now right for me to seek other ways to contribute.” (source)

This move was regarded at the time – rightly or wrongly – as a rebuke/frustration with the lack of ambition on climate policy.

 https://www.smh.com.au/national/tensions-blamed-as-science-chief-quits-20110218-1azm2.html  and 

https://skepticalscience.com/Australias-departing-Chief-Scientist-on-climate-change.html

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 392ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was

Prime Minister Julia Gillard was in the middle of a shitstorm over climate policy that continued for months (Feb to August 2011).

What I think we can learn from this

Offering scientific advice to politicians is at best a very tough gig. At worst, you’re a fig leaf/complicit.

What happened next

Following chief scientific advisors were more willing to sing the praises of fantasy technologies and keep their heads down.  Whether or not current and future generations are well-served by that is, well….

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong?  Do comment on this post.