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Australia

November 27, 1978 – “Impacts of climate on Australian Society and Economy” begins…

On this day, November 27, 1978 a three day conference on “Impacts of climate on AustralianSociety and Economy”, sponsored by the CSIRO, began on Philip Island, near Melbourne.

In a report on its first 30 years the  Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering wrote- 

As 2005 Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering (ATSE)  document continues –

“The Phillip Island conference had a substantial impact on government approaches to the management of climate variability and laid the foundation for a subsequent major contribution of the Academy to the problem of human-induced climate change over the following decades.” (p. 10).

[The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 335ppm. At time of writing it was 417ishppm- but for what it is now,well, see here for the latest.]

The context was this – 

There had been an inconclusive AAS report in 1976 (no shade on the scientists involved – the evidence wasn’t there). But from 1976 onwards, the carbon dioxide drumbeat got louder, internationally…

Why this matters. 

We knew. Let us not forget that we knew.

What happened next?

The scientists kept working on it all. The politicians ignored them. Starting from 1988 the politicians didn’t ignore them, at least in public. But they never let the science get in the way of a “good” investment decision. And civil society was unable to stop them.  —-. And here we are.

Categories
Antarctica

Jan 26, 1978: “West Antarctic ice sheet and C02 greenhouse effect: a threat of disaster” article in Nature…

On January 26 1978, a paper was published in the journal Nature, about the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet due to rising climate emissions. This paper, pithily titled “West Antarctic ice sheet and C02 greenhouse effect: a threat of disaster” was written by John Mercer. You can read more about Mercer (who was a bit of a character) and the fact that he’d been researching and thinking about this since (deep breath) 1968, here…

In the 1978 paper Mercer pointed out 

“A disquieting thought is that if the present highly simplified climatic models are even approximately correct, this deglaciation may be part of the price that must be paid in order to buy enough time for industrial civilisation to make the changeover from fossil fuels to other sources of energy”

Why this matters. The sea level rise, among other things. We’re toast.

What happened next? Well, we’re not there yet. But we will be soon (a while in human lifespan terms, an eyeblink geologically speaking…) And the East Antarctic Ice Sheet? Not looking too clever either…