Forty seven years ago, on this day, July 7th, 1979, a ,memo lands on President Jimmy Carter’s desk from his chief scientific adviser, Frank Press –
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jun/14/1977-us-presidential-memo-predicted-climate-change
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 337ppm. As of 2026, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.
The broader context was Lyndon Johnson was the first US president to warn about carbon dioxide build-up, in early 1965 (thanks to the work of Roger Revelle etc). Between then and 1979, the science had become a lot firmer, especially from the mid-1970s.
The specific context was that various scientists (including Alvin Weinberg) had been beavering away, holding conferences, lobbying Frank Press, etc etc, trying to get the issue onto the agenda.
This met headwinds though, because the Carter Administration also wanted to reduce dependence on Middle Eastern oil, and was pursuing making oil from shale, which would be a climate catastrophe.
What I think we can learn from this. The second half of the 1970s – fully fifty years ago, is the key period when a community of scientists – not just climatologists – started going “oh shit”. You can read all about them in William Barbat’s CO2 Newsletter…
What happened next. Press chided Gus Speth of the Council on Environmental Quality for continuing to bang on about carbon dioxide build-up. Carter lost the 1980 election. Reagan the wrecking ball came in, and the last slender chance of avoiding catastrophe was gone. Oh well.
On this topic, you might like these other posts on All Our Yesterdays
July 30, 1979 – synfuels would be sinful…
May 5, 1980 – Frank Press to Jimmy Carter on climate
References
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You can see the chronological list of All Our Yesterdays “on this day” posts here.
What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.
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Also on this day:
July 7, 1969 – Newsweek writes about the “good earth,” mentions carbon dioxide build-up
July 7, 1970 – an Australian banker goes “Full Extinction Rebellion”, 50 years early…
July 7, 1988 – foolish “Jumping the greenhouse gun” editorial in Nature.
July 7, 1992 – Greenhouse Action Australia briefing
July 7, 1997 – Alexander Downer tells the truth.
July 7, 2008 – Liberals start back-tracking on climate promises.