Category: Ignored Warnings

Categories
Ignored Warnings United States of America

September 27, 1962 – “Silent Spring” published as a book

On this day September 27  1962  the hugely influential book “Silent Spring” was published.

It had already been serialised in the New Yorker from June.

Carson’s book is regarded as the starting gun for public awareness of the dangers of technology-driven economic growth (what is now known as “The Great Acceleration” in some circles).

Industry’s response was predictable, involving heavy-handed satire and attempted smears (Carson was a lesbian, Carson was only a woman and therefore emotional and unreliable etc etc).

(Btw, see Hoffman and Ocasio (2001) Not All Events Are Attended Equally: Toward a Middle-Range Theory of Industry Attention to External Events)

On this day the PPM was 316.25 ppm. Now it is 421ish – but see here for the latest.

Why this matters. 

If you stick your head above the parapet and say that what seems normal is actually deeply problematic, expect trouble. (That is not to say you deserve it, or should accept it, but you’d be wise to expect it).

What happened next?

Well, in the short-term, the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 almost solved all of humanity’s long-term problems very abruptly.

Categories
Australia Ignored Warnings Science Scientists

September 15, 1980 – Australian scientists hold “Carbon Dioxide and Climate” symposium in Canberra

On this day, 15 September 1980, Australian scientists met in Canberra to discuss carbon dioxide and its build-up…

1980, 15 to 17 September, Carbon Dioxide and Climate – Australian Academy of Science symposium in Canberra

“In 1980, the Australian Academy of Science held a conference to review 20 years of measurements showing increasing carbon-dioxide levels, and by then there was an understanding that the greenhouse effect would result in climate change.”

Staples, J. 2009 page 2

And it got reported in the Canberra Times….

Categories
Ignored Warnings United States of America

September 7, 1977 – #climate scientist Stephen Schneider on Carson for the last time…

On this day, September 7 1977, climate scientist Stephen Schneider is on the Johnny Carson show for the last time (he deviated from the script!)

“How many of you think the world is cooling?” That’s what Steve Schneider asked the studio audience of the Tonight Show with Johnny Carson in September 1977. And when the majority put their hands up, he explained that the recent cooling trend had only been short-term. Though the unscripted poll meant Steve wasn’t invited back to the programme, through the summer of that year he had brought climate science to US national TV. The appearances typified Steve’s efforts to bring climate change to the world’s notice – efforts that would later draw attention of a less desirable sort.

When the climate change fight got ugly

CHECK OUT SCIENCE AS A CONTACT SPORT PAGE 73

On this day the PPM was 331.29 Now it is 421ish- but see here for the latest.

Why this matters. 

What if Carson hadn’t had a hissy fit? Would have made an interesting counter-factual…

What happened next?

Carson stopped inviting Schneider on. So it goes.

Categories
Ignored Warnings United States of America

September 3, 1988 – Ann Landers is Greta Thunberg avant la lettre…

On this day in 1988 Ann Landers , the famous American advice columnist went full-Greta. Yes. 1988. We knew this stuff, generations ago.

1988 Ann Landers column from The Dispatch, North Carolina, 3rd September 1988, p 7

“If we don’t get some balance in our environment soon, life on this planet as we know it, is finished.

https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1734&dat=19880903&id=yn8cAAAAIBAJ&sjid=AFIEAAAAIBAJ&pg=5667,321353&hl=en

On this day the atmospheric CO2 level was 348.97 ppm. Now it is 421-ish- but see here for the latest.

Why this matters. 

We knew the stakes. We blew it.

What happened next?

We kept emitting.

Yes, look, I know pretty much every blog post on this site is saying exactly the same thing. But really, what else is there to say?

We could have acted differently – but the incentive structures meant we didn’t. And here we are. Suck it up.

Categories
Ignored Warnings United Kingdom

September 1,1972 – “Man-Made Carbon Dioxide and the “Greenhouse Effect” published in Nature

On this day, 1st September 1972, the British meteorologist J.S. Sawyer had a paper “Man-made Carbon Dioxide and the “Greenhouse” Effect” in Nature..

Sawyer, in four pages, summarised what was known and what could be reasonably expected in the short-term (up to the year 2000).

In September 2007, 35 years later, the Australian meteorologist Neville Nicholls had a letter in the same journal, argued  that  “Sawyer’s prediction of a reversal of this trend, and of the correct magnitude of the warming, is perhaps the most remarkable long-range forecast ever made.”

On this day the atmospheric CO2 level was 324.84 ppm. Now it is 421ish- but see here for the latest.

Why this matters

It is unfair to blame politicians for not having acted in 1972. But they could/should have started paying attention then. By the late 1970s there really was enough certainty among scientists for real action to begin  (to be clear, real action has still not – 40 years on from that putative deadline – begun. Oh well).

What happened next?

Sawyer kept working. 

As Agar (2015) notes   “In 1974, the Met Office had marked an expanding interest in climate by starting a working party on world climatology, ‘with specific emphasis on climatic change’, under J.S. Sawyer, the Met Office’s director of research.”

Sawyer was asked by the Cabinet Office in 1976 for his opinion of American climate scientist Reid Bryson (see All  Our Yesterdays post about that here).

Categories
Ignored Warnings

August 22, 1981 – New York Times front page story costs #climate scientists their jobs.

On this day, August 22, 1981 the New York Times had a front page story about climate change. Written by its legendary science writer Walter Sullivan, it began

STUDY FINDS WARMING TREND THAT COULD RAISE SEA LEVELS

A team of Federal scientists says it has detected an overall warming trend in the earth’s atmosphere extending back to the year 1880. They regard this as evidence of the validity of the ”greenhouse” effect, in which increasing amounts of carbon dioxide cause steady temperature increases.

The seven atmospheric scientists predict a global warming of ”almost unprecedented magnitude” in the next century. It might even be sufficient to melt and dislodge the ice cover of West Antarctica, they say, eventually leading to a worldwide rise of 15 to 20 feet in the sea level. In that case, they say, it would ”flood 25 percent of Louisiana and Florida, 10 percent of New Jersey and many other lowlands throughout the world” within a century or less.

It was based on a study by James Hansen. Hansen’s unit was punished by having Department of Energy funding pulled – 5 people lose their jobs  (See Bowen Censoring Science page 212)

[The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 338.48 ppm. Now it is 421ish- but see here for the latest.]

Why this matters. 

Scientists getting punished for reporting the facts. Always a good look, eh? Never ever sends a chilling message.

What happened next?

Hansen and others kept going. That’s what good scientists do. By 1985, they realised shit was about to get real.

Categories
Ignored Warnings Science Scientists United States of America

August 3, 1970 – Nixon warned about climate change and icecaps melting

On this day, 3 August 1970, the first report of the Council on Environmental Quality was delivered to Preside Nixon. It contained a chapter on inadvertent weather modification, carbon dioxide build-up and icecaps melting. 

The CEQ had been set up as part of the legislative process that had gathered momentum under Johnson and come to fruition by late 1969.  

On this day the PPM was 324.69ppm

Now it is 421ish- but see here for the latest.

Why this matters. 

By early 1970s, folks were going “you know, this really might become a problem.”  By the mid-late 1970s the smarter ones dropped the “might”…

What happened next?

The CEQ didn’t return to the climate issue until Carter, best I can tell. And then Gus Speth, as its boss, got cracking with getting things moving, having been nudged by Gordon MacDonald and Rafe Pomerance of Friends of the Earth.

Gordon MacDonald had already been writing about this stuff (see his chapter in the Nigel Calder book). He would go on to be important in the fight against synfuels.

Categories
Ignored Warnings United States of America

July 31, 1981 – US politicians hold “carbon dioxide and climate” hearings.

On this day, 31st July 1981, US congressmen got to hear from scientists.

Carbon Dioxide and Climate : The Greenhouse Effect House Committee on Science and Technology 31 July 1981.  https://catalog.hathitrust.org/Record/002758619 

“carbon dioxide and climate, the greenhouse effect:” hearing before the Subcommittee on Natural Resources, Agriculture Research, and Environment and the Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight of the Committee on Science and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives, Ninety-seventh Congress, first session, July 31, 1981.

Here’s who was there. By now you probably recognise Roger Revelle and Stephen Schneider….

You have to wonder what they were thinking/hoping, given the wrecking ball that was the Reagan Administration. But, then, what else were they supposed to do?

According to Nathaniel Rich in Losing Earth

Though few people other than Rafe Pomerance seemed to have noticed amid Reagan’s environmental blitzkrieg, another hearing on the greenhouse effect was held several weeks earlier, on July 31, 1981. It was led by Representative James Scheuer, a New York Democrat — who lived at sea level on the Rockaway Peninsula, in a neighborhood no more than four blocks wide, sandwiched between two beaches — and a canny, 33-year-old congressman named Albert Gore Jr….

The Revelle hearing went as [Gore’s fixer] Grumbly had predicted. The urgency of the issue was lost on Gore’s older colleagues, who drifted in and out while the witnesses testified. There were few people left by the time the Brookings Institution economist Lester Lave warned that humankind’s profligate exploitation of fossil fuels posed an existential test to human nature. “Carbon dioxide stands as a symbol now of our willingness to confront the future,” he said. “It will be a sad day when we decide that we just don’t have the time or thoughtfulness to address those issues.” That night, the news programs featured the resolution of the baseball strike, the ongoing budgetary debate and the national surplus of butter.

Why this matters. 

If you know you’re history…

What happened next?

Reagan

Categories
Ignored Warnings United States of America

July 25, 1977 – New York Times front page story “scientists foresee serious climate changes”

On this day, 25 July, 1977 the New York Times ran a front page story, by its science reporter, Walter Sullivan. Its title – “Scientists Fear Heavy Use of Coal May Bring Adverse Shift in Climate“

“Highly adverse consequences” may follow if the world, as now seems likely, depends increasingly on coal for energy over the next two centuries, according to a blue‐ribbon panel of scientists.

“In a report to the National Academy of Sciences on their two‐and‐a‐half‐year study, the scientists foresee serious climate changes beginning in the next century. By the latter part of the 22nd century a global warming of 10 degrees Fahrenheit is indicated, with triple that rise in high latitudes.”

Sullivan, W. (1977) Scientists Fear Heavy Use of Coal May Bring Adverse Shift in Climate New York Times, July 25, p.1
Here’s the report.

Two days later, it made its way into The Times

Why this matters. 

We knew enough by the late 1970s to move from watching brief to “action!”. 

“We” didn’t do that.

What happened next?

Briefed in 1980 by her Chief Scientific Advisor, Margaret Thatcher was incredulous “You want me to worry about the weather.”

Categories
Ignored Warnings United States of America

July 24, 1977 –  Climate change as red light? “No, but flashing yellow.”

On this day, July 24, American climate scientist Thomas F. Malone used the imagery of traffic lights while discussing the two and a half year study by the National Academy of Science into climate change.

“During a press conference convened in late July 1977, for instance, Malone cast the climate problem as a “flashing yellow light,” a clear indication of the academy’s desire to seriously consider the risks of climate change without investing too much in crafting policies that could inflame public anxieties and, in turn, sanction a red-light approach to fossil fuel emissions.” (Henderson 2019: 401)  

See also – “Study Warns of Overreliance on Fossil Fuels,” Colorado Springs Gazette-Telegraph, 25 Jul 1977.

See also Omang (1979).

Why this matters. 

We knew.

What happened next?

You know.


And sorry, but tomorrow’s post is also about this NAS report.