Category: United Kingdom

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United Kingdom

November 2, 1957 – “Our Coal Fires are melting the poles” Birmingham Post

Sixty seven years ago, on this day, November 2nd, 1957, it was laid out, simply

Douglas, T.S. 1957. Our Coal Fires are Melting the Poles. Birmingham Post & Gazette, November 2

Compare this with the Los Angeles Times, May 19, the same year…

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 314ppm. As of 2024 it is 423.7ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that the International Geophysical Year was underway, but there had also been a meeting in Toronto of the geodesy people….  And maybe the Birmingham post was picking up on that. 

What we learn is that the idea of CO2 build up causing catastrophe was well-established by then. And what else we learn is that if you really understand the history, you can see where seemingly random shit comes from, perhaps. 

What happened next. Charles David Keeling started taking his measurements in Hawaii the following year. Roger Revelle started working within the bureaucracy. Lyndon Johnson said it in 1965. But it would be another many decades before a US president would take any of this seriously. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

References

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Also on this day: 

November 2, 1972 – “Eco-pornography … Advertising owns Ecology”…

November 2, 2006 – “RIP C02” says New Scientist

November 2, 2009 – , Australian opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull seals own doom by not bending knee to shock jock

Categories
Agriculture Food United Kingdom

October 28, 1994 – UK agriculture and climate change workshop

Thirty years ago, on this day, October 28th, 1994, well, read it and weep

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 359ppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that there was a Climate Action Network and it was trying to get scientists and agriculture people and so forth thinking about the long-term impacts of climate change. The UK had ratified the UNFCCC, which would have its first meeting soon. And you know, agriculture was going to have to learn to adapt.

What we learn is we’ve been talking about adaptation for a very long time. It will be interesting to see how we do. Badly, I expect.

What happened next. Defra spent more money on climate change programmes and all the rest of it. But it’s not clear to me that anything meaningful is being done particularly that I could be wrong. And here we are.

https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/impact-of-climate-change-and-biodiversity-loss-on-food-security

Food security under pressure from climate change

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/03/disastrous-fruit-and-vegetable-crops-must-be-wake-up-call-for-uk-say-farmers

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/08/british-farmer-food-climate-crisis-business

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

October 28, 1906 – the birth of the Press Release

October 28, 1956 – New York Times reports “Warmer Climate on the Earth May Be Due To More Carbon Dioxide in the Air”

Categories
Canada Carbon Capture and Storage United Kingdom United States of America

October 27, 2002 – International CCS study tour begins

Twenty two years ago, on this day, October 27th, 2002, some people fly off to the US and Canada.

Report of DTI International Technology Service Mission to the USA and Canada from 27th October to 7th November 2002

Carbon dioxide capture and storage : report of DTI International technology Service Mission to the USA and Canada from 27th October to 7th November 2002 / Advanced Power Generation Technology Forum ; Mission leader Nick Otter.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 373ppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that CCS had been climbing the agenda for a few years, especially since it looked like the political negotiations around the Kyoto process were going nowhere. So you know, maybe throw your eggs in the technology basket and there were always these opportunities for nice conferences and PowerPoint slides and fun dinners and schmoozing. So it goes.

What we learn is that there’s always a new technology that’s going to save us. And that those technologies need “selling.”

What happened next, CCS started climbing in the popularity stakes. The Americans were throwing money at it with FutureGen. And then, years later, the Europeans and the Brits said that they were going to throw money at it. And here we are 23 years later. And how much C02 was actually being saved? Or stored? 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

October 27, 1967 – “the Swedish environmental turn” picks up speed

October 27, 1990 – The Economist admits nobody is gonna seriously cut C02 emissions

Categories
Denial United Kingdom

October 27, 1990 – denialist letter published (demolished days later)

Thirty four years ago, on this day October 27th 1990, a stupid denialist’s letter is published, forcing the Met Office boss John Houghton to respond

Sir: You published a letter (27 October) from Mr Hilary Lawson in which he casts doubts on the integrity of scientists involved in the assessment of global climate change. Mr Lawson has made allegations of this kind before, in particular in his Equinox programme ”The Great Greenhouse Conspiracy” broadcast on Channel 4. But, as Vicky Hutchings points out in an article in the New Statesman and Society (26 September) in which she exposes the inaccuracies of the Equinox programme, Mr Lawson provides no evidence for his allegations.

As chairman of the Scientific Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC), I can assure Mr Lawson the assessment was not ”dominated by those who were already in the pro-global warming camp” but by scientists chosen solely for their expertise; most of them (myself included) would refuse to be described as belonging to any particular camp.

About half the 400 scientists (from more than 30 countries) who worked on the scientific assessment assisted in the preparation of the draft documents, the other half reviewed them. Therefore virtually every scientist in the world who has made significant contributions to the science of global climate change had a part in the generation of the assessment and a wide range of other scientists were involved in its approval. Despite the many discussions and hard arguments which took place, none of the 100 or so present at the final meeting dissented from the final text.

The IPCC assessment concludes first that ”we are certain that increased emissions of greenhouse gases will result in additional warming of the earth’s surface”. It estimates, on the assumption that greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow on a ”business as usual” scenario, that global temperature will rise by about 0.3C per decade during the next century with an uncertainty range of 0.2 to 0.5C. Even if the lower figure is taken, the rate of change is likely to be greater than that which has occured on Earth at any time since the end of the last ice age more than 10,000 years ago.

These estimates of future climate change are mainly based on the results of the numerical models which integrate our knowledge of the dynamics and physics of the whole climate system. Mr Lawson alleges that the models are unable to reproduce accurately the current climate, let alone predict the future.

In Mr Lawson’s Equinox programme, in order to make this point, he misleadingly showed some very poor results of a Meteorological Office climate model produced some years ago when climate modelling was in its infancy. Global modelling has developed a great deal since then and models are now able to describe current climate with a large amount of skill. They have also been applied with some success to reproducing the climates which occurred during the last ice age. Although a lot of further development is required, we are confident that useful projections of future change can be provided.

Yours faithfully,

JOHN T. HOUGHTON

Chief Executive

Meteorological Office

Bracknell, Berkshire

30 October

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 354ppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that some ridiculous idiotic documentary had been made, saying that it was all a conspiracy. These sorts of things are inevitable because a lot of people love their conspiracies and are frankly dickheads. This was also in the context of the first IPCC report coming out.

What we learn is that dickheads gonna dickhead. And that people like John Houghton at the Met Office are going to have to spend time unpicking this, and the problem is a classic Gish Gallop – by the time you’ve explained why it’s all bullshit, people have lost interest. Gish gallop as a technique keeps getting used because it’s so effective. It’s up there with “technology will save us.” Ah, all the different ways people enjoy being lied to….

 What happened next, Houghton had first been talking about climate in like 1966, I think at a British Association for the Advancement of Science meeting. Anyway, Houghton had a stellar career.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

October 27, 1967 – “the Swedish environmental turn” picks up speed

October 27, 1990 – The Economist admits nobody is gonna seriously cut C02 emissions

Categories
United Kingdom

October 26, 2023 – Happy One Year birthday, Energy Act

One year ago, on this day, October 26th, 2023,

The biggest piece of energy legislation in the UK’s history has become law today (Thursday 26 October), laying the foundations for an energy system fit for the future.

The Energy Act 2023 has received Royal Assent and will transform the UK’s energy system by strengthening energy security, supporting the delivery of net zero and ensuring household bills are affordable in the long-term.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 423ppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was, a year ago today, the Energy Act finally got royal assent, much delayed, all singing, all dancing, going to deliver X, Y and Zed for renewables and CCS and so forth. And here we are a year later, and what’s happened, dot dot dot. 

mark to fill in that a couple of weeks before the date itself. We’ve had an election but then who the fuck knows. But anyway, the usual what happened next isn’t really doable there. 

What I think we can learn from this – the wheels grind slowly, don’t they?

What happens next

There is now, thanks to the Energy Act a NESO. Of course there is –

Energy ministers have tasked the newly established National Energy System Operator with creating a strategic spatial plan that maps where net-zero infrastructure such as renewables generation and storage should be located across the UK

Mace, M. 2024. UK to publish ‘spatial plan’ to map clean energy infrastructure and cut project waiting times. Edie, October 22 https://www.edie.net/uk-to-publish-spatial-plan-to-map-clean-energy-infrastructure-and-cut-project-waiting-times/ 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

October 26, 1975 – “The Endangered Atmosphere” conference begins…

October 26, 2001 – BioEnergy Carbon Capture and Storage mooted

Categories
United Kingdom

October 25, 2006 – David Cameron launches “Can I have the Bill?” campaign for a Climate Act

Seventeen years ago, on this day, October 25th, 2006, opposition leader David Cameron launches “Can I have the Bill” campaign in London, a few week’s ahead of the Queen’s speech in which the Labour Government announced its Climate Change Bill.

If you go here you can see the Getty images I don’t have a licence for.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 382ppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that David Cameron had become Conservative Party opposition leader the previous year simply by memorising an eight minute speech and not being David Davis or Ken Clark. One of his key tactics was to “detoxify” the Conservative brand by embracing soft green environmentalism so middle class people wouldn’t be quite as repelled and would feel less guilty about voting the way that they thought would benefit their own economic self interest. And so he’d hugged a husky and so forth. And now, he was trying to outflank the Labour and Liberal Democrats on climate ambition. 

We’d seen this before with Chris Puplick and Andrew Peacock in 1989-90 in Australia.

What I think we can learn from this is that these periods of competitive consensus exist. They tend not to last terribly long though. 

What happened next Cameron kept banging on about CCS. He had a wind turbine put on his roof to precisely no effect. And in 2008, the Climate Change Act became law. And there was an up of ambition from 60% to 80% emissions reductions by 2050. And of course, we’ve now said that we’re going to go to net zero, except we’re not. 

The thing to remember was that very, very few Conservatives voted against the Climate Change Act. But this is because most of them are both obedient and thick and didn’t understand the implications. And even if they did understand the implications, loyalty to your leader is far more important than any particular stand you might want to make. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

October 25, 1980 – Australian radio’s The Science Show talks about climate change…

October 25, 1982 – Exxon and “Climate Processes & Climate Sensitivity” symposium

October 25, 2000 – James Hansen writes a letter

October 25, 2000 – local authorities in England make #climate promises. Well, that went well… #NottinghamDeclaration

Categories
United Kingdom

October 21 1980 – Conference on “Climate and Offshore Energy Resources” in London

Forty four years ago, on this day, October 21st, 1980, a conference in London…

https://www.jstor.org/stable/26222336

A report on the conference ‘Climate and Offshore Energy Resources’, Royal Society, 21–23 October 1980

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 339ppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that the First World Climate Conference had happened in Geneva the previous year, but Bolin was still trying to shepherd stuff around CO2 build up through the scientific collaboration systems, with help from Mustafa Tolba. Bolin of course had been banging on about climate change and CO2 buildup since 1958. And Bolin had been at a 1969 conference at the Royal Society and here he was 10 years later. 

What we learn is that we knew, and that Bolin did his best.

What happened next. It was another 8 years before elite politicians had to start paying lip service to “the greenhouse effect.”

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

October 21, 1983 – “Changing Climate” report released

October 21, 1989 – Langkawi Declaration on environmental sustainability…

Categories
Carbon Capture and Storage Scotland United Kingdom

October 19, 2011 – First UK CCS competition fizzles out

Thirteen years ago, on this day, October 19th, 2011,

On 19th October, 2011, the Government terminated negotiations with the ScottishPower consortium as the Government considered it could not agree a deal that would represent value for money (NAO, 2012). The first CCS competition ended without any winner.

(Ko, 2018: 66)

Longannet scheme (Scotland, SSE) collapses – https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/oct/19/david-cameron-longannet-carbon-capture

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 392ppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that BP had been interested in using CCS on one of its projects in 2005. proposed it. They pulled the plug in 2007, because Treasury wouldn’t comply. Then a CCS competition had been established in November 2007, Gordon Brown launched it at a WWF event. And the idea was it would be up and running within a couple of years. Ha ha. The competition dragged on and dragged on and dragged on, eventually whittled down to only one interested company. And they’d only been doing it because they were going to be given loads of money to keep the stranded assets afloat. And even then, that didn’t come off. But a second competition was already waiting in the wings.

What we learn is that CCS has a long, long history of failure in the UK, of broken promises of delayed and then ended schemes. Hopefully by now I can point to my book?

What happened next was that a second competition was set up as was the UKCCS Research Centre, some money for workshops and networking and so forth. And then the competition came undone in November 2015… And then, well, you should buy my book!!

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

October 19, 2002 – Doctors for the Environment Australia, becomes a thing.

October 19, 2010 – Greenpeace trolls ANZ Bank

Categories
Uncategorized United Kingdom

Switch from “not happening” to “geo-engineering” underway among Conservatives

The long-anticipated shift from “climate change is a leftie anti-progress hoax” to “it’s too late to do anything except geo-engineer the planet” is underway.

Speaking on the far-right television programme GB News on Wednesday 16th October s, former Conservative minister Jacob Rees-Mogg on Wednesday 16th October said the following

“When it comes to climate change, most of the public discourse surrounds hair shirt measures to cut emissions and phase out fossil fuels. But is this really where our focus ought to be?

“Perhaps, instead of being obsessed by futile attempts to stop climate change, a goal that’s looking increasingly out of reach, we should turn our attention to the virtues of green technologies and innovative developments to tackle some of the most practical and immediate challenges.”

[continues ad nauseam]

For once failing to meet the award-winning standards for fierce scrutiny, historical awareness and political balance for which GN News is globally respected [yes, that is SARCASM] the journalist in question failed to ask Rees-Mogg the following questions

a) Had he ever peddled climate skepticism (e.g. in a 2013 opinion piece in the Telegraph), despite his political hero Margaret Thatcher having made several ‘time to save the world’ speeches in 1988-1990

b) Had he tried to stop his mate Michael Gove in an (ultimately unsuccessful) effort to remove climate change from the National Curriculum.

c) Had he ever tried to stop his former boss, Prime Minister David Cameron from “cutting the green crap” like house insulation, greener transport etc, that would have led to lower bills (and probably lower emissions)

d) Is this not simply a classic ‘reverse-ferret’ – changing position so quickly that everyone will be too busy feeling their head spin to ask obvious questions about intelligence, integrity and the rest of it (that nobody expects from politicians anymore anyway).

The answers are, of course. Yes, no., no, and yes.

Sources on Rees-Mogg’s climate positions – Guardian, Big Issue, They Work For You, Desmog

This switch from “not happening” to “too late to do anything” is time-honoured, and across many issues. See this 1986 clip from the classic BBC sitcom Yes Prime Minister. “The standard Foreign Office four stage procedure”

It’s been happening around climate, intermittently, since the late 2000s.

Categories
Commonwealth Sea level rise United Kingdom

October 17, 1987 – CHOGM meeting at which Margaret Thatcher has climate “brought home to her”

Thirty seven years ago, on this day, October 17th, 1987, in Vancouver, a Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting took place, and other leaders (especially the small island states) tried to bend UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher’s ear on the problem of climate change.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 349ppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that since 1985, scientists have been trying to warn politicians. Low lying nations and so forth were paying attention because they could see the writing on the wall or the waves washing over the seawall. And Thatcher by her own account, copped an earful at this Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting. For all the good it did – it would be almost another year before she would give her speech at the Royal Society

What we learn is that you have to tell ideologues the same thing many many times before they’ll pay any attention. And God what a stupid species we are. 

What happened next? Yeah, you’ve got the explosion of interest in 1988.

In 1989, the CHOGM lot received Martin Holdgate’s report, which had been commissioned at Vancouver.

https://thecommonwealth.org/news/archive-holdgate-report-climate-change

Shridath Ramphal, then Secretary-General of the Commonwealth, who commissioned the report from an international expert group at the Commonwealth Heads of Government summit in Vancouver, Canada, in 1987, described the threat of climate change in his foreword as “truly global in its implications”.

He said: “If the Earth is to warm by even the most modest of the various projections, there could be far reaching, long term implications for natural ecological systems, farming, the design of major energy and water projects and for low lying areas that could be affected by rising sea level.”

The Holdgate report called for a “major international initiative” to establish “global responsibilities” for preventing unmanageable rises in the world’s temperature. It also spelt out practical steps which poor and small countries like Guyana, Bangladesh, Maldives, and Pacific islands, could take to monitor their changing environment.

 You’ve got the November 1989 Male declaration about sea level rise. You then have the toothless 1992 UNFCCC (the climate treaty).

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

October 17, 1973 – the coup at the Australian Conservation Foundation

October 18, 1973 – “how on earth do you stop using fossil fuels?”

October 17, 2009 – Maldives cabinet meets underwater