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United States of America

January 27, 1986 – Engineers try to stop NASA launching the (doomed) Challenger Space Shuttle

Thirty-seven years ago, on this day, January 27 1986, engineers at the company Morton-Thiokol were begging their own bosses, and NASA administrators, to delay the launch of the Challenger Space Shuttle. They feared it could explode on the launch pad, because seals keeping fuel away from air were not going to work because the rubber they were made of had lost its elasticity, thanks to unexpected sub-zero temperatures in Florida.

As per the Wikipedia entry about one of the engineers, Roger Boisjoly. 

Following the announcement that the Challenger mission was confirmed for January 28, 1986, Boisjoly and his colleagues tried to stop the flight. Temperatures were due to fall to −1 °C (30 °F) overnight. Boisjoly felt that this would severely compromise the safety of the O-ring and potentially the flight.

The matter was discussed with Morton Thiokol managers, who agreed that the issue was serious enough to recommend delaying the flight. NASA protocols required all shuttle sub-contractors to sign off on each flight. During the go/no-go telephone conference with NASA management the night before the launch, Morton Thiokol notified NASA of their recommendation to postpone. NASA officials strongly questioned the recommendations, and asked (some say pressured) Morton Thiokol to reverse its decision.

The Morton Thiokol managers asked for a few minutes off the phone to discuss their final position again. The management team held a meeting from which the engineering team, including Boisjoly and others, were deliberately excluded. The Morton Thiokol managers advised NASA that their data was inconclusive. NASA asked if there were objections. Hearing none, NASA decided to launch the STS-51-L Challenger mission.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Boisjoly

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 348.8ppm. As of 2023 it is 419.

The context was NASA was under a lot of pressure to launch, because of previous delays and because there was a civilian – a teacher called Christa McAuliffe – on board.

What I think we can learn from this

Hierarchies are “reality distortion fields”. But reality – especially physics and chemistry – will impinge, sooner or later.

It’s probably a good idea to listen to scientists and engineers who say something is really unsafe. 

There is such a thing as “organisational decay” – Organizational decay is a condition of generalized and systemic ineffectiveness. It develops when an organization shifts its activities from coping with reality to presenting a dramatization of its own ideal character. In the decadent organization, flawed decision making of the sort that leads to disaster is normal activity, not an aberration. Three aspects of the development of organizational decay are illustrated in the case of the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration. They are (1) the institutionalization of the fiction, (2) personnel changes in parallel with the institutionalization of the fiction, and (3) the narcissistic loss of reality among management.

What happened next

In case you didn’t know, the Challenger was torn apart 73 seconds into its flight.

Boisjoly spent the rest of his life trying to get other people to learn from what had happened. By all accounts, a mensch.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong?  Do comment on this post.

References and further reading

30 Years After Explosion, Challenger Engineer Still Blames Himself

Schwartz, H. 1989. Organizational disaster and organisational decay: the case of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Industrial Crisis Quarterly, 3, pp.319-334.

And a blog post of mine, inspired by reading Schwartz

Categories
United States of America

January 26, 1970 – US science bureaucrat writes “what’s going on?” memo about #climate

Fifty three  years ago, on this day, January 26, 1970, a Nixon-era scientist (a professor in Applied Physics no less) called Hubert Heffner  expressed (understandable!) uncertainty about climate change. In September the previous year Daniel Moynihan had written a memo – now famous on the internet – about the possible consequences of carbon dioxide build-up.

“Moynihan received a response in a Jan. 26, 1970, memo from Hubert Heffner, deputy director of the administration’s Office of Science and Technology. Heffner acknowledged that atmospheric temperature rise was an issue that should be looked at.

“The more I get into this, the more I find two classes of doom-sayers, with, of course, the silent majority in between,” he wrote. “One group says we will turn into snow-tripping mastodons because of the atmospheric dust and the other says we will have to grow gills to survive the increased ocean level due to the temperature rise.”

Heffner wrote that he would ask the Environmental Science Services Administration to look further into the issue. 

https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna38070412

Hubert Heffner

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 325ppm. As of 2023 it is 419.

The context was the US administration of Nixon was trying to use environmental issues to change the conversation in Europe, away from, well, you know, napalming Vietnamese children.  That’s part of the context of the Moynihan memo. The Germans were underwhelmed by this as a tactic.  Meanwhile, the United Nations bureaucracy was grinding forward with preparations for the Stockholm conference, to be held in June 1972.

What I think we can learn from this

It was still okay at this point to be just not quite sure. We must not allow hindsight to condemn folks for not knowing for sure (I think by late 1970s that argument becomes much much less viable).

What happened next

In August 1970 the first Council on Environmental Quality report came out, with a chapter written by Gordon MacDonald – see here .

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong?  Do comment on this post.

Categories
Academia Science United States of America

January 19, 1968 – Engineers are not ecologists…

Fifty five years ago, on January 19, 1968,  the American publication“Science” reported on the (typical) capture of an advisory group by engineers and technocrats..

Many ecologists doubt the ability of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) and the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) to advise the government properly on problems of environmental pollution and disturbance. Moreover some environmental scientists within NAS itself find it deplorable that, in setting up an Environmental Studies Board last year to co-ordinate studies of environmental problems the leaders of NAS and NAE saw fit to include five people with backgrounds in industrial research but no one with a background in environmental biology. In the view of these critics, the environment’s “despoilers” may be better represented on the new board than its “preservers.”

Carter (1968)

Carter managed to get a great quote out of Lamont Cole, president of the Ecological Society of America – “The National Academy doesn’t know enough about ecology to know how ignorant it is.”  This pithy summary is an example of the Dunning-Kruger effect before that was named…

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 322.5ppm. As of 2023 it is 418ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

https://www.esa.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/94/2022/02/Cole_LC.pdf

The context was that everyone was beginning to get seriously perturbed by water/air pollution in the US (and some were beginning to grok the global implications). So what do you do? You ask the experts to set up an investigatory/advisory panel. And then they do – made up of people exactly like them….

[According to a new journal Environmental Science and Technology, the aforementioned Environmental Studies Board had been set up in early 1967. Ah, no, wait, further down in the Carter article there is this –

“This board was appointed in January 1967 by Frederick Seitz, president of NAS, and Eric Walker, president of NAE. THE board, establishment of which was recommended in a 1965 report (Restoring the Quality of Our Environment) by PSAC’s Envrionmental Pollution Panel, was assigned the responsibility of over-seeing and coordinating environmental studies carried on within the two academies. With this sweeping mission the board’s role is potentially one of great influence.” ]

Frederick bloody Seitz…

What I think we can learn from this

Any panel or programme – or research and innovation centre – will get captured by one tribe of academics, who will then funnel funding and prestige to their own tribe, at the expense of another tribe.  That’s just how humans play the game. Every-so -often a Leviathan may knock heads together and insist the tribes play nice with each other, in order to get actual inter or multi-disciplinary working, but the silos – cognitive and financial – are always lurking, like the plague in that cheerful little book by the Sisyphus guy…

What happened next

Oh, a couple of token ecologists were probably appointed, if only to shut up Lamont Cole. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong?  Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs..

References

Luther J. Carter (1968) National Academy of Sciences: Unrest among the Ecologists. Science, Jan. 19 Vol. 159, No. 3812 , pp. 287- 289

Categories
United States of America

January 17, 2001 – Enron engineers energy “blackouts” to gouge consumers

Twenty two years ago, on this day, January 17, 2001, Energy gouger “Enron” engineered some blackouts in California to… gouge. It’s what they did. It was their “corporate DNA”…

As the FERC report concluded, market manipulation was only possible as a result of the complex market design produced by the process of partial deregulation. Manipulation strategies were known to energy traders under names such as “Fat Boy”, “Death Star“, “Forney Perpetual Loop”, “Wheel Out”, “Ricochet”, “Ping Pong”, “Black Widow”, “Big Foot”, “Red Congo”, “Cong Catcher” and “Get Shorty”.[10]

In a letter sent from David Fabian to Senator Boxer in 2002, it was alleged that:

“There is a single connection between northern and southern California’s power grids. I heard that Enron traders purposely overbooked that line, then caused others to need it. Next, by California’s free-market rules, Enron was allowed to price-gouge at will.”[11]

2001 Enron energy blackouts http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_electricity_crisis

But we are not supposed to remember this sort of behaviour. It doesn’t get institutionally remembered (included in textbooks, mentioned by mainstream commentators and columnists). That would be ‘impolite, or ‘political’ or even ‘unAmerican’ or ‘conspiracy theorising’.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 375ppm. As of 2023 it is 419.

The context was that the free market was providing opportunities.  As per Adam Smith, author of the Wealth of Nations – ‘People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the publick, or in some contrivance to raise prices’.

What I think we can learn from this

That the “normal” workings of infrastructure are intensely political.  They are literally games of power.

That if we don’t remember the history, it will be repeated.

What happened next

Enron went under. And the shenanigans were forgotten,or dismissed as an aberration.

The trust between consumers/citizens and providers that would be needed for some kind of ‘energy transition’? Not helped.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong?  Do comment on this post.

Categories
Carbon Pricing United States of America

January 16, 2003 – Chicago Climate Exchange names founding members

Twenty years ago, on this day, January 16 2003, a “milestone” was reached. Oh yes.

CHICAGO, IL – Efforts to develop market-based solutions to global warming reach a milestone today as leading U.S. and international companies and the City of Chicago announce they will be the Founding Members of Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX®), a voluntary cap-and-trade program for reducing and trading greenhouse gas emissions. In an unprecedented voluntary action, these entities have made a legally binding commitment to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases by four percent below the average of their 1998-2001 baseline by 2006, the last year of the pilot program.

Anon. 2003. Chicago Climate Exchange Names Founding Members. Business Wire, 16 January.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 375.5ppm. As of 2023 it is 419.

The context was that a bunch of people thought – or chose to pretend they thought – that we could trade our way out of trouble, and that those who were early and/or quick could make a killing, and be doing well by doing good.

Carbon trading as a substitute for actual action… Because, you know, it would be cheaper that way…

What I think we can learn from this

That trading schemes are going to cause a feeding frenzy for banks and legal consultancies, and keen-to-burnish-image customer-facing businesses. Smart people take a breath and try to separate the hype and froth from what is actually being proposed.

What happened next

Turns out it didn’t work.

“CCX ceased trading carbon credits at the end of 2010 due to inactivity in the U.S. carbon markets,” (wikipedia)

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong?  Do comment on this post.

Categories
Science United States of America

January 10, 1991 – “Separate studies rank 1990 as world’s warmest year”  #ShiftingBaseline

Thirty two years ago, on this day, January 10, 1991, the New York Times ran a story that has become very very familiar.

The earth was warmer in 1990 than in any other year since people began measuring the planet’s surface temperature, separate groups of climatologists in the United States and Britain said yesterday.

A third group, in the United States, reported record temperatures from one to six miles above the earth’s surface. These were recorded from balloons from December 1989 through November 1990.

Stevens, W. (1991)  Separate Studies Rank ’90 As World’s Warmest Year  New York Times,  Jan. 10.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 355ppm. As of 2023 it is 419. .

The context was that the US had finally been forced to agree to take part in negotiations for a world climate treaty (what became, in June 1992, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change).  The denial and delay campaigns were kicking into gear (the so-called ‘Global Climate Coalition’ doing its predatory delay thing).  Part of the context for the whole climate awakening was how warm the 1980s had been (mild by today’s standards, of course).

What I think we can learn from this

The “warmest year ever” meme does not, on its own, ‘wake up the sheeple’.  If you want to have effective long-term action, you need effective long-term social movement organisations.

Also – shifting baselines are a thing.

By @cameron_jms

See – https://twitter.com/cameron_jms/status/1120259348788338689

And

https://xkcd.com/1321/

And the warming stripes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warming_stripes

What happened next

It kept getting warmer, as you may have noticed.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong?  Do comment on this post.

Categories
Carbon Capture and Storage technosalvationism United States of America

January 8, 2003 –  Energy firms plan to “bury carbon emissions”…

Twenty years ago, on this day, January 8, 2003, the US business press reports on what we now call “carbon capture and storage”

“A potential solution to global warming could lie two miles deep, both underground and in the ocean.”

Global warming has been linked to emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, the by-product of burning fossil fuels such as petroleum and coal. So, some scientists are examining ways to curb the gaseous emissions: burying them underground or injecting them into the ocean.

The technology, known as carbon sequestration, is used by energy firms as an oil-recovery tool.

But in recent years, the Department of Energy has broadened its research into sequestration as a way to reduce emissions. And the energy industry has taken early steps toward using sequestration to capture emissions from power plants.

Even some environmentalists support carbon sequestration, although they generally object to the ocean-storage method. Partly because of environmental concerns about the ocean, government researchers are leaning toward underground storage as a preferred procedure.

Loftus, P. 2003. Energy Firms Bury Carbon Emissions. Wall Street Journal, 8 January.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 375ppm. As of 2023 it is 419.

The context was that US President Bush, shortly after being awarded the Presidency by his dad’s mates on the Supreme Court, had reneged on a campaign promise to regulate carbon emissions and then pulled out of the Kyoto Protocol process (not that the US had ever been likely to ratify!).  Therefore he had need of technofixes so that people who wanted/needed to believe him but who also needed to pretend (including to themselves) that they cared about climate action, could sleep at night.

The whole CCS caravan was beginning to move – there had been a meeting in Regina, Canada in November 2002, and the IPCC was about to start ball rolling on its CCS special report. 

What I think we can learn from this

Stories of techno-salvation are very very important. They will have a lot of friends, a lot of inertia.  Turning those stories into reality, or exposing those stories is trickier, however. 

What happened next

Dumping carbon dioxide in the deep oceans is now legally a no-no. London Protocol etc.  Actual working CCS that doesn’t involve enhanced oil recovery? Still waiting…

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong?  Do comment on this post.

Categories
United States of America

 January 4, 1977 – US politician introduces #climate research legislation

Forty-five years ago, on this day, January 4, 1977,

 “Representative George Brown, Jr. (D-CA) introduced legislation to serve two functions: (1) improve the scientific reliability of climate prediction, and (2) fund applied climatological research to improve the resilience of American society in the face of climate-induced stresses. Frustrated that his previous attempt to pass climate legislation had failed to translate into any national climate policy during the Ford Administration, Brown believed that the time had come to firmly integrate climate into national planning.10 ‘‘I believe we have reached a maturity and urgency of scientific and popular interest which makes possible a successful drive toward scientific, executive branch, and legislative consensus on the design of a national and coordinated climate program,’’ he reasoned on the House floor.11  “

(Henderson 2016)

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 333.8ppm. As of 2023 it is 419.

The context was 

By the mid-1970s, scientists from various countries (including the US, the UK, Sweden,  Germany) were starting to look at carbon dioxide build-up and say “you know, shit could get real” (I paraphrase).  Some politicians, including Brown, were listening.  So was Olof Palme, Swedish Prime Minister. Other politicians were not, and are still not.

What I think we can learn from this

Some politicians have been trying to get money for research for a long time, with varying success. Since 1988, some politicians have been trying to help the species be less stupid on climate change. With much less success.  We needed radical social movements, but instead we got captured and tamed eco-modernisation shills. Oh well…. (see this letter in the Financial Times).

What happened next

President Jimmy Carter did, later in 1977, sign some legislation. Things were moving, a bit. Then came Reagan…

References

Henderson, G. (2016) Governing the Hazards of Climate: The Development of the National Climate Program Act, 1977—1981 Historical Studies in the Natural Sciences, Vol. 46, Number 2, pps. 207–242 

Categories
Energy United States of America

January 3, 1984 – US report on energy transition to combat climate released

Thirty-nine years ago, on this day, January 3, 1984, the New York Times science journalist Walter Sullivan had a story that began with words that could have been written yesterday, more or less…

“A GLOBAL strategy to reduce a potentially dangerous increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide has been outlined by engineers and economists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Stanford University.

“In a report to the National Science Foundation, the specialists propose that the use of fossil fuel, largely responsible for the carbon dioxide increase, can be substantially reduced by greater efficiency in energy production.”

Sullivan, W. (1984)  “Report Urges Steps to Slow Down Climate Warming,” The New York Times, January 3.

Sullivan had been writing about carbon dioxide build-up in the atmosphere for the NYT since the early 1960s (having become aware of the issue during his coverage of the 1957-8 International Geophysical Year).

The report’s lead author, David Rose had been quoted in an August 1980 Wall Street Journal article (which we will come to later) as saying that if the CO2 theory were right “that means big trouble.”

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 344ppm. As of January 2023 it is 417. .

The context was that by the mid-late 1970s, US scientists were able to get funding for decent studies of carbon dioxide build-up, and were even getting some sympathetic hearings from the Jimmy Carter White House. That all ended when Reagan and his goons turned up… In October 1983 two “conflicting” reports about CO build-up had been released. (something AOY will cover later this year).

What I think we can learn from this

We knew. As I have argued here, and elsewhere, ad infitum  and nauseam, there is not an information deficit,,but there is a sustained radical social movements deficit.

What happened next

The issue finally was forced onto the agenda in 1988.  Reports like the MIT/Stanford one have been written pretty much every year since then.  Human emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gses have climbed almost every year. Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide have gone up and up and up.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong?  Do comment on this post.

References

Rose, David J.; Miller, Marvin M.; Agnew and  Carson E. (1983) “Global energy futures and CO\2082-induced climate change: report prepared for Division of Policy Research and Analysis, National Science Foundation https://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/60493

Sullivan, W. (1984)  “Report Urges Steps to Slow Down Climate Warming,” The New York Times, January 3. https://www.nytimes.com/1984/01/03/science/report-urges-steps-to-slow-down-climate-warming.html

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anti-reflexivity United States of America

January 1, 1988 – President Reagan reluctantly signs “Global Climate Protection Act” #CreditClaiming

Thirty-four years ago, on this day, January 1, 1988, US President Ronald Reagan

“reluctantly signs the Global Climate Protection Act” (Agrawala and Anderson, 1999: 459) 

A climate bill had been introduced in the Senate in 1986 by Joe Biden, but died in the Senate. According to Politifact “a version of Biden’s legislation survived as an amendment (29th January 1987) to a State Department funding bill.”

The bill

  • Directs the President to establish a Task Force on the Global Climate to research, develop, and implement a coordinated national strategy on global climate. Requires such Task Force to transmit a United States Strategy on the Global Climate to the President within a year. Requires the President to then report to specified Members of Congress on such report.
  • Directs the President to appoint an ambassador at large to coordinate Federal efforts in multilateral activities relating to global warming.
  • Directs the Secretary of State to promote the early designation of an International Year of Global Climate Protection.
  • Urges the President to give climate protection high priority on the agenda of U.S.-Soviet relations.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/100th-congress/senate-bill/420

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 350.5ppm. As of 2023 it is 417ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was

There had been a pivotal meeting of scientists in Villach in October 1985 [see AOY post October 15, 1985 – Villach meeting supercharges greenhouse concerns...] It had been sponsored by WMO, UNEP and ICSU. After it, US Senators (both Republican and Democratic) had held hearings, including with Carl Sagan as a witness in December 1985 [see AOy post December 10, 1985 – Carl Sagan testified to US Senators on #climate danger].  Biden’s proposed legislation was one result, and was not exactly the first bite at this cherry – see George Brown on January 4 1977 (if you wait three days, you can learn about it on this very site).

What I think we can learn from this

That it’s hard work to get politicians to actually listen to scientists, but it can, eventually be done.
That the narrative of “nobody knew anything/was doing anything until summer 1988” is so vacuous to be  “not even wrong.

That (see below) – liars will rewrite history to try to make their (senile-by-then) hero look good; this is the incumbent’s advantage – anything they were forced to do can later be retconned as part of their farsightedness/largesse.  This #CreditClaiming is part of the erasure of history that keeps us perpetually confused and placated. So it goes…

What happened next

The climate issue finally exploded that summer. Four years of brinksmanship and incumbent bastardry followed, resulting in the too weak “United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change” in June 1992.


More recently, Reagan fanbois have tried to rewrite the history, of course;  https://climateconservative dot org forward slash /americas-original-climate-hero/  (no, I am not going to link to those idiots). 

For more on the Reagan administration versus everything environmental, see  McCright and Dunlap (2010)

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong?  Do comment on this post.

References

Agrawala,S. and Andresen, S. (1999) Indispensability and Indefensibility? The United States in the Climate Treaty Negotiations. Global Governance, Vol. 5, No. 4  pp. 457-482

McCright, A. and Dunlap R. (2010). Anti-reflexivity. Theory, Culture & Society. Volume 27, Issue 2-3 https://doi.org/10.1177/02632764093560