Tag: 1957

Categories
United Kingdom

November 2, 1957 – “Our Coal Fires are melting the poles” Birmingham Post

Sixty seven years ago, on this day, November 2nd, 1957, it was laid out, simply

Douglas, T.S. 1957. Our Coal Fires are Melting the Poles. Birmingham Post & Gazette, November 2

Compare this with the Los Angeles Times, May 19, the same year…

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 314ppm. As of 2024 it is 423.7ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that the International Geophysical Year was underway, but there had also been a meeting in Toronto of the geodesy people….  And maybe the Birmingham post was picking up on that. 

What we learn is that the idea of CO2 build up causing catastrophe was well-established by then. And what else we learn is that if you really understand the history, you can see where seemingly random shit comes from, perhaps. 

What happened next. Charles David Keeling started taking his measurements in Hawaii the following year. Roger Revelle started working within the bureaucracy. Lyndon Johnson said it in 1965. But it would be another many decades before a US president would take any of this seriously. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

References

Xxx

Also on this day: 

November 2, 1972 – “Eco-pornography … Advertising owns Ecology”…

November 2, 2006 – “RIP C02” says New Scientist

November 2, 2009 – , Australian opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull seals own doom by not bending knee to shock jock

Categories
Science

October 4, 1957 – see, see – SPUTNIK!!

Sixty seven years ago, on this day, October 4th, 1957,

1957 – Space Race: Launch of Sputnik 1, the first artificial satellite to orbit the Earth. Science budget up etc

Science Budget through the roof

Onion Our Dumb Century

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 314ppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that at the end of World War Two, there had been an unseemly scramble between the Soviets and the Americans as to who could hoover up more and better German rocket scientists. And the Americans probably thought they were on their way; the Nazis had their reputations cleansed as part of Operation Paperclip. The Soviets didn’t have to bother with PR quite so much – one advantage of the Stalinist dictatorship. And then on the fourth of October, everyone got to take them by surprise, because a small metal ball was launched into space Beep, beep beep. 

What we learn what/why this matters, The broader context was that the International Geophysical Year was happening. The Americans had kind of assumed that they were going to get the first satellite into space and start taking measurements of stuff. Their self-image was badly dented. They started throwing serious money at science education and the President’s Scientific Advisory Council was created and that had important implications. It was an important venue for Roger Revelle in 1964, when he was writing about environmental pollution.

What happened next, the Americans continued freaking out about control of space. And also weather modification is a major part of the story in money getting allocated to research that, ironically, would show that weather modification, deliberate weather modification, was not so easy. And inadvertent weather modification was happening all along. But then they’d already been told that by Gilbert Plass in 1953, and had decided not to listen to him, I guess…

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

October 4, 1969 – “If we melt the Antarctic, our problems are solved because all of the ports of the world would vanish and the ocean will rise 200 feet.”

October 4, 1978 – the Interdepartmental group on Climatology meets for the first time…

Categories
Canada United Kingdom

September 10, 1957 – The Times covers the International Geodesy Conference…

Sixty six years ago, on this day, September 10th, 1957, The Times runs a short piece – “Melting the Polar Ice Caps: Scientists Study Carbon Dioxide Threat” based on discussions at the International Geodesy conference in Toronto

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 315ppm. As of 2024 it is 420ishppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that the International Geophysical Year was underway. And so there were these sorts of international conferences happening. The geodesy people had been going for quite a while. And it was at this one there were calls for urgent study of CO2. But that’s been largely forgotten.

What happened next is after the International Geophysical Year finished, the interest in carbon dioxide as a problem kind of died down a bit. And it wouldn’t be until the mid 60s that it started to come up again…

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

September 10, 1973- Ozone concerns on display in Kyoto…

September 10, 2007 – shiny #climate promises versus grim reality

September 10, 2008 – Greenpeace Kingsnorth protesters acquitted

Categories
Sweden United Kingdom

June 17, 1957 – Guy Callendar writes more truth bombs – “On the Amount of Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere”

Sixty seven years ago, on this day, June 17th, 1957, Guy Callendar submitted an article – “On the Amount of Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere” to Tellus, the Swedish scientific journal.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 314ppm. As of 2024 it is 426ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that Guy Callendar had now been writing about the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere and the warming planet for 20 years. He had presented this work in 1938 at the British Meteorological Society and received a polite but relatively dismissive hearing. Callendar must have been looking at the work around the IGY and hopefully, he was feeling at least a small sense of vindication. I don’t know, even though he’s been largely ignored by or tolerated by the British scientific establishment. 

 What we learn is that the old Hollywood trope of the lone genius, who’s right when the establishment is wrong or looking the other way, is not entirely without foundation. 

 What happened next Callendar had one more significant paper in him in 61/62. I think he must have been too sick to be invited to the Conservation Foundation meeting in 63. And he died in 1964 on the same day of the year, Svante Arrhenius had died, in 1927.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

Carbon Capture? Far from ready… June 17, 2008

June 17, 2009 – Blistering speech about how “The Climate Nightmare is Upon Us” by Christine Milne

Categories
International Geophysical Year United States of America

May 19, 1957 – LA Times asks “Is your smoke helping to melt polar icecaps?”

Sixty seven years ago, on this day, May 19th, 1957 the Los Angeles Times asked the question (not for the first time.) This was all part of the pre-International Geophysical Year (IGY) build-up…

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 314ppm. As of 2024 it is 425ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that the Los Angeles Times had already run some articles about this. And here’s another one. In the context that senior politicians, scientists had been talking about this, not just Revelle, but also Kaplan, Wexler, etc. And it was speculative, but Gilbert Plass by this time had come out with his article in Tellus and was working on one for Scientific American. 

What we learn is that, again, if you were reading a newspaper the idea that over time the carbon dioxide could build up and cause mayhem was explained to you. Whether you chose to remember it, or believe it was up to you.

What happened next, the International Geophysical Year, Sputnik the Keeling Curve, the remorseless rise of emissions and then 30 years later, greenhouse effect would become undeniable. Except to those who chose to deny it, of course.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

May 19, 1937 – Guy Callendar’s carbon dioxide warning lands on someone’s desk

May 19, 1993 – President Clinton begins to lose the BTU battle…

May 19, 1997 – an oil company defects from the denialists. Sort of.

May 19, 1997 – BP boss says “If we are to take responsibility for the future of our planet, then it falls to us to begin to take precautionary action now.”

Categories
Scientists United Kingdom United States of America

May 13, 1957 – Guy Callendar to Gilbert Plass on how easy it is to criticise, how hard to build theories

Sixty seven years ago, on this day, May 13th, 1957, English steam engineer Guy Callendar, who had been pointing to carbon dioxide build-up as an explanation for increased global temperatures since the late 1930s, wrote to Gilbert Plass, who in 1953 had brought the problem to global attention (see my Conversation piece here).

How easy it is to criticise and how difficult to produce constructive theories of climate change! and ““A point of special interest is the large discrepancies between the apparent increase of atmospheric CO2 given by the air-CO2 observations . . . and the predicted increase derived from the size of the exchange reservoirs as now revealed by radio carbon measurements.”

Letter from Callendar to Plass 13 May 1957 (Fleming, 2007: chapter 5)
Guy Callendar

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 315ppm. As of 2024 it is 425ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that Guy Callendar had been banging on about climate change and carbon dioxide buildup since 1938. And Plass had been doing the same since 1953. The two were corresponding and Callendar made a very good point about how the more conventional/mainstream/whatever people were resentful of an outsider committing that terrible crime of being right and proving the experts to be wrong. 

What we learn is that sometimes the experts are wrong. Other times they’re right but sometimes they are wrong. Don’t expect them to applaud you. 

What happened next Callendar had another great piece in 1960 – see here. He died in 1964. Plass kept writing about climate for a few more years but eventually moved on to other things. And the emissions kept climbing. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

References

Fleming, J. 2009 The Callendar Effect – The Life and Times of Guy Stewart Callendar (1898–1964), The Scientist Who Established the Carbon Dioxide Theory of: The Life … of Climate Change

Also on this day: 

May 13, 1983 – idiots get their retaliation in first…

May 13, 1991 – UK Energy minister fanboys nuclear as climate solution. Obvs.

May 13, 1992 – Australian business predicts economic armageddon if any greenhouse gas cuts made

Categories
Science Scientists

December 30, 1957 – a letter from Gilbert Plass to Guy Callendar

Seventy six years ago, on this day, December 30, 1957, the English steam engineer Guy Callendar wrote to the Canadian physicist Gilbert Plass

“Plass wrote to Callendar that Revelle and Suess and Arnold and Anderson had “attacked the carbon dioxide climatic theory ‘quite vigorously’ at a meeting earlier this year.”

They claimed that it was absolutely impossible to have had a sufficient increase in the CO2 amount in this century for the reasons that were given in their articles. I think you have pointed out several ways that their conclusion could be in error and I feel that there are still several possible explanations. 64 (Fleming 2007, p.81)

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 314ppm. As of 2023 it is 421ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that American scientists who were studying carbon dioxide build-up and had been writing about it were still not quite sure what was going on. Understandably – if all the answers were obvious you wouldn’t need to explore anything, and that’s not how science works 

Guy Callendar had written the first serious “carbon dioxide is causing climate change” scientific article in 1938 presented it, to muted response, at the Royal Meteorological Society. 

Gilbert Plass was, more than anyone, responsible for putting carbon dioxide squarely on the agenda with his 1953 statements at the American Geophysical Union and then onwards in 1956 with his articles

What I think we can learn from this is that it’s always a messy murky picture in the early days of any issue. Later on it looks like a procession, but a good historian will try to remember the messiness and make it understandable, without removing the messiness.

Obviously that’s an ongoing process that we need to remember how little we knew and how confused the picture was.

What happened next

Callendar kept writing articles and letters. He died in 1964.

Gilbert Plass continued to be engaged for another few years on the climate issue and then wasn’t.

Roger Revelle died in 1991, having spent a long time trying to get the US state and others scientists politicians to take climate change seriously/

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Categories
Australia

4 July, 1957 – popular UK magazine The  Listener mentions carbon dioxide build-up

On this day in 1957, Sir Edward Appleton makes a passing reference to the possibility of climate change in an article about the International Geophysical Year in the magazine The Listener  – “For we do know this: that more carbon dioxide should help the atmosphere to trap more heat from the sun”.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 314.8ppm. As of 2023 it is 423ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context is that the International Geophysical Year was just beginning, and the BBC had just broadcast “The Restless Sphere”, hosted by Prince Philip. Meanwhile, in April the New Scientist had run a brief story on carbon dioxide.

What we can learn is that we knew enough to be worried, and to set up a proper watching brief. We didn’t.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Categories
International Geophysical Year United States of America

 April 4, 1957 – New Scientist runs story on carbon dioxide build-up

Sixty six years ago, on this day, April 4, 1957, the then-new popular science publication ran a story on the issue of carbon dioxide build-up, in the context of the imminent “International Geophysical Year”, which was to start in July…

New Scientist piece on c02 buildup

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 315ppm. As of 2023 it is 420ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was

Since Gilbert Plass’s statements in May 1953, the carbon dioxide theory of climate change (as propounded by Guy Callendar) was one of several competing theories. There were not, yet, however, super-accurate measures of atmospheric C02. Thanks to Roger Revelle and Charles David Keeling, that would soon change…

What I think we can learn from this

There has been popular knowledge of carbon dioxide build-up for a very long time.  It might therefore be the case that the “Information deficit” model of campaigning is at best misguided.

What happened next

The data from the International Geophysical Year, and Keeling’s meticulous measures at Mauna Loa, would show that yes, atmospheric carbon dioxide was definitely rising. Whether that was a distant small problem or a more immediate big problem, that would take some hashing out…

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong?  Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs..

Categories
New Zealand

January 23, 1957 – New Zealand scientist warns about consequences of carbon dioxide build-up  

 

Sixty six years ago, on this day, January 23, 1957, New Zealand scientist Athol Rafter laid out what was ahead of us, at an ANZAAS meeting

“A New Zealand scientist said that if the existing percentage of carbon dioxide gas in the air was doubled, the earth’s temperature would rise enough to melt polar ice caps and flood many major coastal cities.”

and

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 314ppm. As of 2023 it is 419

The context was that with the coming of the ability to do carbon-14 dating, it was obvious that carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere were indeed climbing (at this point Charles David Keeling’s meticulous measurements at Mauna Loa were still over a year away from starting).  The International Geophysical Year was about to begin, and everyone was rather excited…

What I think we can learn from this

The science of this did not used to be controversial, and people have known for a hella long time…

What happened next

The scientists kept going, with their pesky impact science, measuring the problems caused by production science….

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong?  Do comment on this post.