Tag: 1978

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Renewable energy United States of America

May 3, 1978 – First and last “Sun Day”

Forty five years ago, on this day, May 3, 1978, the first and last “Sun Day” organised by Dennis Hayes took place

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sun_Day

QUOTE FROM  In the rain! (Graetz, 2011: 117)

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 338ppm. As of 2023 it is 420ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was Denis Hayes had been neck deep in the Earth Day organising of 1970 and spent the rest of the decade trying to get people to take alternative energy solar energy seriously.

The National Academy of Sciences report on climate had come out in July of 1977. Carter had signed the Climate Change Act that had been proposed by George Brown. People were beginning to think that carbon dioxide might really screw us. Increasing the amount of solar energy was clearly a good idea, but didn’t get implemented. 

What I think we can learn from this

Solutions technological, political, economic, social, have existed and they have constantly been out fought, outspent by existing vested interests and the natural small c conservatism and inertia and obduracy of large technical systems.

Getting a new technology to be accepted is a very very hard task.

What happened next

Well, famously, the Reagan administration took the solar panels off the White House in 1986. But by then Reagan’s goons had already done a very good job in destroying momentum towards ecological sanity (not that a second Carter term would necessarily have delivered).

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong?  Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

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Austria

 Feb 21, 1978 – “Carbon dioxide, climate and society” workshop

Forty five years ago, on this day, February 21 1978, a workshop took place at the Cold War lek known as IIASA, in Austria.

Carbon dioxide, climate and society – Proceedings of a IIASA workshop co-sponsored by WMO, UNEP and SCOPE, (Laxenburg, Austria) 21-24 Feb 1978.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 335.2ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was

In the US the 1977 NAS report had come out.  UNEP were hosting meetings with the WMO Preparations were underway for the First World Climate Conference, to be held in February 1979.  IIASA had been looking at Energy and Climate for a while, including with previous workshops in 1975 and this one in 1976 about Climate and Solar Energy.  Some of the big names – Flohn, Nordhaus etc, were around.

What I think we can learn from this

Smart people were “on it” quite early (i.e. 20 years after Plass, Revelle, Bolin, Keeling et al had seen what the problem was).  They scratched their heads and couldn’t see easy ways forward Because there weren’t any. There certainly aren’t any now. 

What happened next

This meeting and others fed into the late 1970s awareness of the problem (among a tiny number of people!)

IIASA kept having consequential meetings on climate (see their stuff on CCS in the early 2000s)

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong?  Do comment on this post.

References

Schrickel, I. (2017)  Control versus complexity: approaches to the carbon dioxide problem at IIASAWynne, B. (1984) The Institutional Context of Science, Models, and Policy: The IIASA Energy Study. Policy Sciences

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United States of America

February 1, 1978 – US TV show MacNeill Lehrer hosts discussion about climate change

Forty five years ago, on this day, February 1 1978  the PBS “MacNeill Lehrer Report” had various smart people talking about the climate problems ahead (Robert Jastrow, Gordon MacDonald, Stephen Schneider, Clairborne Pell). They let Jastrow go first, shilling his Ice Age is Coming book. Then Gordon MacDonald, who had been warning about carbon dioxide build-up since 1968, and had helped write the first public facing report on it in 1970,  was able to respond –

“GORDON MacDONALD: Bob Jastrow talked about the natural fluctuations in climate. I think that basically the picture he drew is correct, except he left out one important factor, that is, man. Man has been doing lots of things that are going to change climate in very significant ways. For example, he`s burning oil, gas, coal, putting the carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. He`s also clearing forests, turning lands that were once covered with biologically active material into areas that are no longer biologically active. That means that the carbon that was once fixed in those forests is now released into the atmosphere. These two effects plus a very important effect, that is, natural gas coming from deep within the earth, coming into the atmosphere and being oxidized, all lead to the greenhouse that you described.”

https://americanarchive.org/catalog/cpb-aacip_507-ms3jw87f1f

And yes, that is Stephen Schneider with hair –

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 333ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was

In 1977 the National Academy of Sciences had released a big fat report saying there was probably a problem about carbon dioxide buildup, and other books had been written in the mid 70s (e.g. Wilcox). So television producers, who were always needing to fill up space and to seem to have their finger on the pulse, will have looked upon this as a good topic. Schneider was a no-brainer. MacDonald and Jastrow were among the JASONs who had been up to their necks as well in ozone discussions, and MacDonald was at the time of this television appearance leading work on a JASON Technical Report “The Long Term Impact of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide on Climate.”

What I think we can learn from this

These sorts of chin-stroking documentaries and discussion panels have been going on a long time. And at one point, certainly up to this point, they had their place. But since then they have become an opportunity for middle-class people who don’t want to get off their fat asses to say “oh, there’s still a debate going on.”

What is amusing about some of the denialists is they don’t admit (or perhaps even know) that some of the people they pointed to as ‘Big Scientists Who Disagree’ in the 1990s were Ice Agers. That doesn’t fit their narrative (though they never forget to cite the paper Stephen Schneider co-authored with Rasool in 1971…)

What happened next

The contestation over whether carbon dioxide buildup mattered led to a process in 1979 known as the Charney report, which said there’s no reason to think otherwise.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong?  Do comment on this post.

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United Kingdom

December 22, 1978 – UK Energy Department chief scientist worries about CO2 levels and pressure to reduce them…

On this day, December 22, 1978, the chief scientist at the UK Department of Energy, Hermann Bondi, wrote to the civil servants in the Cabinet Office, as part of the general raised awareness about climate issues in the late 1970s…

Weighing the short- and long-term effects of climate predictions, Hermann Bondi, the Chief Scientist at the Department of Energy from 1977 to 1980, wrote to the Cabinet Office in late 1978:

“If it became the accepted scientific view that the CO2 level would continue to rise largely due to the combustion of fossil fuel and that this was likely to have undesirable climatic effects then the pressure for reducing fossil fuel combustion would be immediate and severe. … Whether the scientific predictions turned out to be right or wrong the effects of the change in fuel consumption pattern induced by the prediction could be far-reaching. I regard this possibility as of far greater importance for this country than the effect of an actual climatic change. And the impact would almost certainly come very much sooner.”

H. Bondi to R. G. Courtney, 22 Dec 1978, KEW, Ref. R 2959, CAB 164/1422. Also see ‘‘Interdepartmental Group on Climatology: Comments on CPRS Paper ‘Economic Effects of Climatic Change’ by the Department of Energy,’’ KEW, CAB 164/1422

Agar 2015

[The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 335ppm. At time of writing it was 419ishppm- but for what it is now,well, see here for the latest.]

The context was this – 

Through the mid-70s awareness and concern grew. The UK government finally set up an inter-departmental committee (despite the resistance of theMeteorological Office top dog, John Mason ).

Why this matters. 

We knew. I know I keep saying it, but by the late 1970s, there was enough knowledge out there to be properly worried….

What happened next?

A report was finally produced. New Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher was briefed on it in 1980 ,and responded with incredulity “you want me to worry about the weather?” And eight more lost years would  go by on her watch until she finally was properly persuaded on the threat of the “greenhouse effect”…

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Canada Science Scientists

December 10, 1978 – Academic workshop on “Climate/Society Interface” begins in Toronto…

On this day, December 10, 1978  a five day Workshop co-hosted by the CSU and SCOPE 

“Workshop on Climate/Society Interface” began in Toronto..

This was (presumably?!) a kind of sequel/follow up to the February 1978 IIASA workshop “Carbon Dioxide, Climate and Society” which had been cosponsored by WMO, UNEP, and SCOPE, February 21 – 24, 1978.

Papers included

Margolis, H. (December 1978) Estimating social impacts of climate change–What might be done versus what is likely to be done.

[The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 335ppm. At time of writing it was 419ishppm- but for what it is now,well, see here for the latest.]

Categories
United Kingdom

November 30, 1978 – House of Lords debate on Atmospheric Changes…

On this day, November 30 in 1978,  during a House of Lords debate, Lord Tanlaw —a crossbench member with long-standing environmental and energy conservation interests—asked ‘

‘if the recent exceptional weather conditions that have been reported from all parts of the globe in the last few years are a first indication that man’s industrial activities have already begun to affect the global weather pattern,’’ and specifically, whether ‘‘these anomalies are directly linked to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide.’’ 

House of Lords Debate re: ‘‘Atmospheric Changes and Weather Patterns,’’ 30 Nov 1978, 
Hansard Vol. 396, cc. 1442-70: 1446.

[The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 335ppm. At time of writing it was 417ishppm- but for what it is now,well, see here for the latest.],

Why this matters. 

By the late 1970s, the long-term threat of climate change was becoming better and better understood (though by no means everyone agreed).

What happened next?

Three months later, in February 1979, the First World Climate Conference happened in Geneva. John Mason of the Meteorological Office did not cover himself in glory. New Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher was briefed in 1980. Her response “You want me to worry about the weather?”

The Chief Scientific Advisor tried to alert new Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in early 1980. Her response was “you want me to worry about the weather?”

[The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 335ppm. At time of writing it was 417ishppm- but for what it is now,well, see here for the latest.]

Categories
Australia

November 27, 1978 – “Impacts of climate on Australian Society and Economy” begins…

On this day, November 27, 1978 a three day conference on “Impacts of climate on AustralianSociety and Economy”, sponsored by the CSIRO, began on Philip Island, near Melbourne.

In a report on its first 30 years the  Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering wrote- 

As 2005 Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering (ATSE)  document continues –

“The Phillip Island conference had a substantial impact on government approaches to the management of climate variability and laid the foundation for a subsequent major contribution of the Academy to the problem of human-induced climate change over the following decades.” (p. 10).

[The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 335ppm. At time of writing it was 417ishppm- but for what it is now,well, see here for the latest.]

The context was this – 

There had been an inconclusive AAS report in 1976 (no shade on the scientists involved – the evidence wasn’t there). But from 1976 onwards, the carbon dioxide drumbeat got louder, internationally…

Why this matters. 

We knew. Let us not forget that we knew.

What happened next?

The scientists kept working on it all. The politicians ignored them. Starting from 1988 the politicians didn’t ignore them, at least in public. But they never let the science get in the way of a “good” investment decision. And civil society was unable to stop them.  —-. And here we are.

Categories
Antarctica

Jan 26, 1978: “West Antarctic ice sheet and C02 greenhouse effect: a threat of disaster” article in Nature…

On January 26 1978, a paper was published in the journal Nature, about the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet due to rising climate emissions. This paper, pithily titled “West Antarctic ice sheet and C02 greenhouse effect: a threat of disaster” was written by John Mercer. You can read more about Mercer (who was a bit of a character) and the fact that he’d been researching and thinking about this since (deep breath) 1968, here…

In the 1978 paper Mercer pointed out 

“A disquieting thought is that if the present highly simplified climatic models are even approximately correct, this deglaciation may be part of the price that must be paid in order to buy enough time for industrial civilisation to make the changeover from fossil fuels to other sources of energy”

Why this matters. The sea level rise, among other things. We’re toast.

What happened next? Well, we’re not there yet. But we will be soon (a while in human lifespan terms, an eyeblink geologically speaking…) And the East Antarctic Ice Sheet? Not looking too clever either…