Categories
Carbon Capture and Storage United States of America

December 1, 1984 – they’re talking about CCS already…

Forty years ago, on this day, December 1st, 1984, Carbon Capture and Storage got an early study,

 Systems study for the removal, recovery and disposal of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel power plants in the US

Abstract

This report examines the feasibility of preventing man-made CO/sub 2/ from entering the atmosphere. Utilities produce about 30% of the emissions of CO/sub 2/, therefore, the system is first applied in this study to the power plant effluents. An absorption/stripping stack gas scrubbing and regeneration process was chosen for the present system study. An improved solvent process is used and the process is integrated with the power plant operations to improve the efficiency of the combined plant. Three methods of disposal are selected and appropriately applied, depending on geographical proximity to the source power plants. The US Department of Energy Federal Region Divisions for utility power plants was utilised to aggregate and design the disposal system. The energy requirement to drive the various parts of the system is estimated. This is a first order design and cost estimation system study, made primarily for the purpose of determining the order of magnitude feasibility and economic costs for the removal, recovery, and disposal of CO/sub 2/ from power plant stacks in the US. The base year chosen for the systems analysis was 1980 and all capacity and costs are indexed to that year.

Authors: Steinberg, M; Cheng, H C; Horn, F

Publication Date: 1984-12-01

Research Org.: Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (USA)

OSTI Identifier: 6084354 published 2 years later as https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ep.670050409?saml_referrer

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 345ppm. As of 2024 it is 423ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that CCS had got its first serious push in 1977, with the publication of an article by Cesar Marchetti, an Italian physicist who had been asked to think about the issue by our good friends a the International Institute for Advanced Systems Analysis,t IIASA, never-knowingly out-technofixed. Albanese had done some work in the late 1970s, and this was a follow-up

What I think we can learn from this is that CCS has been talked about for almost 50 years. Still not delivering any detectable-compared-to-annual-emissions ‘savings’ (EOR doesn’t count, for obvious reasons).

What happened next. There was a spasm of interest in the late 1980s, but for real hype, you have to wait until the early 2000s.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

References

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Also on this day: 

December 1, 1976 – Met Office boss still saying carbon dioxide build-up a non-issue

December 1, 2005 – David Cameron says “low carbon living should not be a weird or worthy obligation”

December 1, 2008 – Climate Change Committee fanboys carbon capture

Categories
Science Scientists Sea level rise United States of America

September 13, 1984 – unsettling Seattle workshop on sea level rise

Forty years ago, on this day, September 13th, 1984

Glaciers, ice sheets and sea level : effect of a CO2-induced climatic change : report of a workshop held in Seattle, Washington, September 13-15, 1984

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 345ppm. As of 2024 it is 420ishppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that by now, CO2 build-up and its close cousin sea level rise were well embedded in environmental science in the United States. The EPA, the year before, had produced a big fat report. And this workshop, I guess it’s a continuation of that. 

What we learn is that our scientists have been warning us about sea level rise with graphs and numbers since the early 1980s. And without necessarily all those graphs and numbers since the 1950s. 

What happened next, scientists kept sciencing and the rapid increase in temperature and warmth of the planet led in 1988 to James Hansen giving his famous testimony to the Senate committee in June of 1988.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

September 13, 1976 – US news broadcast on ozone and climate.

September 13, 1992/1994- Scientists traduced, ignored

Categories
Cultural responses United States of America

“Why are they lying to our children?” – what a 40 year old propaganda campaign can tell us about today (and tomorrow’s) cultural battles. #Climate #CorporatePropaganda

Forty years ago today (August 16, 1984) the New York Times, the “national” paper of the USA (1) ran a piece of particularly crafty propaganda.  It was a paid full-page advert, on page 23, from the oil giant Mobil (2).  The title of this masterpiece was “Why are they lying to our children?”, and the sordid episode has a lot to tell today and tomorrow’s climate campaigners – and for that matter anyone else interested in how fossil fuel interests have, with enormous success, sought to shape ‘common sense’ in democratic societies.  

Short version:  they don’t do it with chemtrails, or subliminal advertising. They do it with brute force and with subtlety, with repetition and repetition and repetition.  And they’ve been doing it for a very long time (3).

Mobil had been running “editorial adverts” – a few hundred words of text about an issue du jour for over a decade at this point. These were the brainchild of a PR guru called Herb Schmerz, and you can learn more about them, and him, by going to this brilliant podcast by Drilled. There are some excellent spoofs of the ads by the German artist and provocateur Hans Haacke – for example MetroMobilitan.

The key point is that this is a really really clever form of propaganda, for several reasons. First because it doesn’t look like propaganda; it doesn’t deploy the crude and easily-spotted techniques of clapping seals, smiling dolphins and blue skies. Second, (and related) anyone who calls it propaganda can be accused of trying to refuse corporations a voice in public debate, since Mobil is at least trying to put a *rational* case, and isn’t that what liberals keep claiming they want, after all?  Third (and related to the second) any attempt to respond to the half-truths and elisions in the adverts (the creators of these adverts are too canny to indulge in outright falsehoods) will take up at least as much time and energy, exhausting a third-party’s patience.  This isn’t quite a Gish Gallop, but it is Gish Gallop-adjacent.  Fourth, by setting out a ‘reasoned’ argument, Mobil is consciously setting the frame of the debate. And as various people have said, if they can get you asking the wrong questions then it doesn’t matter what the answers are.  Finally, Mobil, through these ‘helpful’ adverts gets to claim a place as just another citizen in the ‘ideal speech community’, the term that the German philosopher Jurgen Habermas used to describe the situation where rich and poor, lion and lamb hash things out reasonably, arriving at agreed truths. Yeah, right.

So, this advert, forty years ago today, will have raised no eyebrows – it was just one of a very long line.  Indeed, the only reason I am focussing on it at all is that I saw it in a collection released by Geoffrey Supran and Naomi Oreskes and was struck by the line about “why are they lying to our children” and its mention of a book by that name. I wanted to know more, and didn’t have to go down too many electronic rabbit holes to find out more.

Before I get to the specifics, there’s one more piece of historical context that will help you understand what this is all about. 

What is on the curriculum (overt and hidden) and how it is taught has always been a topic of contestation (and there’s nothing more political than who is allowed to learn to read – famously, slaves were forbidden from doing so in the American south).

However, matters had come to a head in the decade before this advert. You see, the aftermath of the 1960s and early 1970s was a period of serious concern to conservatives.  That period had seen the black civil rights struggle give birth to the anti-war movement, to second-wave feminism, to gay rights, latino rights, indigenous movements, and to ecology movements. The “settled” consensus of the 1950s – that elite heterosexual white men, with science as their handmaiden, would rule, with women in the kitchen, people of colour (the words they used were different then!) in their place, queers in the closet and nature under the DDT etc. thumb – all that was gone by the early 1970s (4). If you want to stay in charge, well, you rely on unthinking consent: it’s a nightmare when the people you are trying to control get an education and are able to create their own perceptions of the world, share those, refuse to believe what you want and need them to believe  (that this is the best of all possible worlds and that if they know their place everything will be okay, or at least tolerable).

The elites were alive to the threat, and were casting around for how to respond. There’s a key document that explains all this rather well.  Almost exactly thirteen years before the Mobil advert, a memo (August 23, 1971) landed on the desk of Eugene B. Sydnor, Jr., , the Chairman of the “Education Committee” of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

 The memo was written by Lewis Powell (Wikipedia), soon to be nominated as a Supreme Court justice by President Richard Nixon.  It’s known as “the Powell Memorandum.”

Greenpeace USA describe it as “a corporate blueprint to dominate democracy”, and they’re not wrong. Here’s some of the sense of what the memo says

“Business must learn the lesson . . . that political power is necessary; that such power must be assiduously cultivated; and that when necessary, it must be used aggressively and with determination—without embarrassment and without the reluctance which has been so characteristic of American business.”

 “Strength lies in organization, in careful long-range planning and implementation, in consistency of action over an indefinite period of years, in the scale of financing available only through joint effort, and in the political power available only through united action and national organizations.”

The book itself

One source (I will come back to this, promise!) tells the origin myth of the book itself;

“New York University Dean, Dr Herbert London learned [about the lack of ‘balance’ in school education the hard way. One day his 13-year-old daughter came home from school with tears in her eyes to say, “I don’t have a future.” She showed her farther a paper shed been given in school. It listed horrors that it claimed awaited her generation, Including air pollution so bad that everyone would have to wear a gas mask.

“Well, as a result of that incident, London wrote a book…”

The book was published by the Hudson Institute, a cold-war think tank set up in the 1961 by Herman Kahn (one of a few possible inspirations for Stanley Kubrick’s ‘Dr Strangelove’) and fellow nuclear war strategists. Its purpose was to argue for, in effect, ever-more nuclear weapons (it can be thought of as a precursor to the George C. Marshall Institute, set up at about the same time as this Mobil op-ed was published, to argue forReagan’s Space Defense Initiative aka “Star Wars” – for more on that, see Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway’s book “Merchants of Doubt”).

Its author, Herbert London, was at the time an academic at New York University  It was his first second solo book(5), and doubtless he was happy for the foreword from Herman Kahn (6). The book was published in 1984. You can borrow it here (please donate some money, on general principles, to the Internet Archives folks).

Before I hone in on what (little) it has to say specifically about climate change, we need to back up to the Powell Memorandum. There’s something in it that might put the sweet origin myth above, of a concerned dad simply trying to protect the mental health of his daughter – in a new light.

Evaluation of Textbooks 

The staff of scholars (or preferably a panel of independent scholars) should evaluate social science textbooks, especially in economics, political science and sociology. This should be a continuing program. The objective of such evaluation should be oriented toward restoring the balance essential to genuine academic freedom.

(Powell, 1971, p.16-7)

And what did London magically set out to do – why, exactly this.  What a coincidence…

 It’s also worth pausing to think about the clever rhetorical work being done by the very clever title. “Why are they lying to our children?”

Let’s take the third word first – there is a nefarious and identifiable “They“.  An alien force that needs to be combatted, defeated. This “they” are the communist eco-freaks, useful idiots of the Soviet Union seeking to undermine the Free West.  You know, all those never-do-wells in the good old days of the 1920s through early 1960s, would have been dealt with via Red Scares and the House Un American Activities Committee and so on (all pre-dating Senator Joseph McCarthy, by the way).

They are trying to wickedly deceive sweet innocent children.  Not “some” children (their own, for instance) but “our” – meaning the writers of this work are taking responsibility for ALL children, for everyone’s children  (the “They” do not get to have any children of their own in this, something akin to JD Vance’s attack on childless cat ladies). 

Finally (!!)  the book itself. I’ve not read the whole thing (life is short, and it is way later than you think).  Specifically on climate change, the book has little to say (6).   Ironically, London first finds himself having to correct scientific errors in the textbooks he is reviewing.

“Moreover, their analysis of environmental issues includes several egregious errors. For example, carbon dioxide does not have a cooling effect on the climate, as was suggested in silver Burdett’s geography text cited above” (emphasis in original) (London, 1984, page 64)

A few pages later London quotes from the 1981 edition of a classic textbook (first published in 1968) called  The Economic Problem by Heilbroner and Thurow, which mentions carbon dioxide build-up.

London is largely dismissive.  

“The ‘greenhouse effect’ to which the authors refer is caused not so much from combustion in general as from the combustion of fossil fuels in particular. Which does increase the amount of carbon dioxide in the air. If the effect is ‘the most serious threat’ we face, a concerted effort to cope with this threat to our environment would mean solving the problems associated with the generation of nuclear power, which is clean, and the manufacture of synthetic fuels that are low in carbon content. But Heilbroner and Thurow don’t make this point, nor does any other textbook that includes the issue.” (London , 1984, p.93-4).

And .. that’s it. 

If I can editorialise for a minute – for a book that sought to allay his thirteen year old daughter’s(7) fears, well – what a sloppy effort. He seems more interested in proving that he is smarter than some secondary school textbooks, and fulfilling the suggestion in the Powell Memorandum.

What happened next

Earlier I quoted a mystery guest on the subject of the origin myth of the book.  And that mystery guest is… drumroll please… take a bow… give it up for… President Ronald Wilson Reagan!  On February 28, 1985, shortly after his second inauguration (Morning in America) gave a speech at the Annual General Meeting of the National Association of Independent Schools.

The book was only mentioned in passing, though, as noted above, Reagan found time to include the heart-string-tugging origin myth. He said of the book that it “documents the myths that are taught in so many of our schools. Our children should know, London argues, that because our society decided to do something about pollution, our environment is getting better, not worse. Emissions of most conventional air pollutants, for example, have decreased significantly, while trout and other fish are returning to streams where they haven’t been seen for decades”

That’s a real sign of success, isn’t it? You know you’ve arrived when your book is getting a shout out from the President of the United States!

The book got a positive review (of course) in the neoconservative journal “Commentary” and popped up in the footnotes of various “anti-reflexive” (see McCright and Dunlap – and this video!)  texts seeking to minimise environmental issues and prosecute the curriculum wars over the following decades.

The last major citation (to date) came ten years ago, when the UK “Global Warming Policy Foundation” regurgitated the origin myth in a report called “Climate Control”, which claimed there was “brainwashing” in the UK’s classrooms. No, I am not linking to it, and really, think twice before wasting your time with their trash: like I said it’s a lot later than you think. By the way, most UK climate denial is like this – a pale imitation and outdated photocopy of better-funded American efforts.

Battles over climate change and US secondary school textbooks have continued.  They’ve involved famed scientists like James Hansen  (see this blog post about April 9, 2008.)

More recently, the Heartland Institute, a climate denialist outfit,  has been trying to muddy the waters by providing “alternative facts” in attractive format to secondary school teachers.

In the UK, Michael Gove, when Secretary of State for Education, tried to have climate removed from the curriculum in primary school. In this he was, ultimately, unsuccessful, thanks to … Ed Davey.

Oh, and London? Well, according to Wikipedia, font of all accurate information

The London Center for Policy Research (LCPR) is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization that was founded in 2012 by London in New York City and defines itself as a boutique think tank created to engage in research and advise on key policy issues of national security, international relations, energy, and risk analysis.[32] The center claims to challenge conventional wisdom where appropriate, add texture to the current deliberations on policy issues and build support for positions that further the national interest and the interest of key allies.[33] The London Center was influential in the staffing and policy direction of the Trump Administration with many of its senior fellows taking on both official and unofficial roles in the administration.[34] The center counts these “Fellows” among its membership: Deroy MurdockGordon G. ChangMonica CrowleyJim WoolseyDerk Jan Eppink, and Walid Phares.

[Hat-tip to a Bluesky chap for this]

What we learn

There is a forever war for the hearts and minds – especially of children. If you can shape their norms, their frames, then, well, that’s half the battle. But as TS Eliot wrote,”There is no such thing as a Lost Cause because there is no such thing as a Gained Cause.”  The conservatives know this, and are in a state of endless anxiety about this (in their way, they are as addicted to apocalypse narratives as the Hallamites, only with much less scientific justification).

So, for progressives, leftists etc, a crucial lesson is that “they” -the “other side” –  are diligent, relatively skilled, and extremely well-funded.  Just because you disagree with them, you shouldn’t under-estimate them. 

This tactic that London (among others) used will continue.  The “won’t someone think of the children”gambit is too useful not to be used again and again, no matter how ludicrous. It frames the anti-reflexives/status quo supporters etc as the good guys, responsible adults merely trying to stop the long-hairs from terrorising sweet innocent children.

In addition, the pattern of the conveyor belt and mutual amplification of influence is still there; of op-ed turning into longer article, into book, that then gets quoted in advertorial or speeches by CEOs.  Politicians then amplify it, it appears in Hansard, all the while gaining “credibility” through repetition, especially when “high status” people in think tanks (junk tanks), university departments etc. Thus are memes built. That’s what they want, anyway. It doesn’t always turn out like that, sometimes it doesn’t land/resonate, they get mugged by reality etc. Counter-memes can also be put forward by “the other side.”…

What to do

  • Educate yourself (this is most effectively and efficiently done with others by the way) by reading widely (see some starters below) and acting in the real world. If you’re after podcasts, you cannot do better than start with Drilled.  Also, throw some money at them.
  • Get involved in a sustainable group that is a rough fit for your politics, and stay involved (this is, for various reasons, really really hard).
  • Don’t be surprised when everything goes sideways very quickly indeed. Instantaneously, on geological timescales.

Further suggested reading

Barley, S. R. (2010). Building an institutional field to corral a government: A case to set an agenda for organization studies. Organization studies, 31(6), 777-805.

Beder, S. 1997. Global Spin: The Corporate Assault on Environmentalism

Carey, A. 1997. Taking the Risk Out of Democracy: 

Chomsky, N. 1993. World Orders, Old and New.

George, S Learning from the Gramscian Right

Kurmelovs, R 2024. Slick

McCright, A. M., & Dunlap, R. E. (2010). Anti-reflexivity. Theory, Culture & Society, 27(2-3), 100-133.

Williamson, J. 1978. Decoding Advertisements: ideology and meaning in advertising

that one from the 1970s by two (French?) authors – can’t remember title

On Herman Kahn

Christopher Hollis, (1964) Dr Strangelove and Dr Kahn The Spectator, February 28, p.11 (21 years to the day before Reagan’s speech, btw)

Casper Skovgaard Petersen (2023) The Eccentric World of Herman Kahn.

On the Powell Memorandum

In this excerpt from Winner-Take-All Politics: How Washington Made the Rich Richer — and Turned Its Back on the Middle Class, authors Jacob S. Hacker and Paul Pierson explain the significance of the Powell Memorandum, a call-to-arms for American corporations written by Virginia lawyer (and future U.S. Supreme Court justice) Lewis Powell to a neighbor working with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. LINK

Powell Memorandum: Attack On American Free Enterprise System

Ford, D. (2023). The “Powell Memo” and the Supreme Court: A Counteroffensive Against the Many. Politics.

On Mobil and so on

Drilled Media – How Oil Companies Manipulate Journalists

Footnotes

(1) There’s a highly entertaining speech by Noam Chomsky, from 1985 that talks about the NYT in, ah, “somewhat unflattering” terms, to do with its “first draft of history function.” Watch this space – or perhaps marchudson.net – for more.

(2) In November 1998 Exxon and Mobil merged.

(3) See the collection of essays by Australian social scientist Alex Carey, under the title “Taking the RIsk Out of Democracy: Corporate Propaganda versus Freedom and Liberty”

(4) In his 1994 book World Orders, Old and New, Noam Chomsky writes about the perceived  “crisis of democracy” in the mid-1970s.  This served as the title of the first book published by the Trilateral Commission.  If you don’t have access to World Orders, Old and New, that’s alright, it’s a topic Chomsky has spoken of many times. There’s this interview in India in January 1996. And here’s something from the Boston Review in 2017 that gives the same flavour

What particularly troubled the Trilateral scholars was the “excess of democracy” during the time of troubles, the 1960s, when normally passive and apathetic parts of the population entered the political arena to advance their concerns: minorities, women, the young, the old, working people . . . in short, the population, sometimes called the “special interests.” They are to be distinguished from those whom Adam Smith called the “masters of mankind,” who are “the principal architects” of government policy and pursue their “vile maxim”: “All for ourselves and nothing for other people.” The role of the masters in the political arena is not deplored, or discussed, in the Trilateral volume, presumably because the masters represent “the national interest,” like those who applauded themselves for leading the country to war “after the utmost deliberation by the more thoughtful members of the community” had reached its “moral verdict.”

To overcome the excessive burden imposed on the state by the special interests, the Trilateralists called for more “moderation in democracy,” a return to passivity on the part of the less deserving, perhaps even a return to the happy days when “Truman had been able to govern the country with the cooperation of a relatively small number of Wall Street lawyers and bankers,” and democracy therefore flourished.

(5) In 1981 London had co-authored “Myths that Rule America.” A googlebooks search suggests it made no mention of carbon dioxide.

(6) Given the internal evidence, it was mostly completed before the September 1983 “battle of the reports”, where the Environmental Protection Agency released a report called “Can we delay a greenhouse warming?” (spoiler, the authors thought “probably not by very much”) and two days later the National Academies of Science released a report saying, in effect “nothing to see here.”

(7) The daughter in question is Stacy London, who most definitely does not share her father’s politics..

Categories
Australia

July 1, 1984 – CSIRO film “What to do about C02?”

Forty years ago today, (July 1st, 1984) a CSIRO film came out,

What to do About CO2? (1984)

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 345ppm. As of 2024 it is 426ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that Australian scientists had been trying to raise the alarm since the late 70s. The CSIRO had worked with the ABC and in 1976 released a documentary called “A Change in Climate”,which had looked at both concern over a new Ice Age and carbon-induced warming.

And in 1980, the Australian Academy of Science had held a two day conference in Canberra in 1981. CSIRO had released a monograph by Brian Tucker, about the so-called “Carbon Dioxide problem.” Unbeknownst to the public had also been the Office of National assessments. Greenhouse Effect report and of course, the CSIRO in the mid 70s had made a documentary called a Change of Climate. 

What we learn – the simple fact is that we knew but we couldn’t see a way to do anything. 

What happened next. The film was well-received, circulated in schools etc. See interview with Russell Porter.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

July 1, 1950 – “Is the World Getting Warmer?” asks Saturday Evening Post

July 1, 1957- A key “year” in climate science begins…

July 1, 1983 – Australian High Court “saves” Franklin River (it woz the activists wot won it)

Categories
France

 June 18, 1984- OECD holds conference on “environment and economics”

On this day forty long long years ago, an OECD conference about the environment and economics began in Paris.

Report on the International Conference on Environment and Economics, OECD, Paris, France, 18-21 June 1984

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 344ppm. As of 2024 it is 426ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was the Brundtland Commission was underway, and transborder issues (acid rain especially) were exercising European wonks.

What we learn

BFWRs (Big Fat Worthy Reports) keep coming round. And around. And around. The production and reception of them creates networking opportunities and distractions for a certain class of person who might – theoretically at least – be a problem otherwise…

What happened next

The Brundtland Commission released its “Our Common Future” report in 1987. The following year, the climate issue burst to life.  And we are not saved.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

June 18, 1976- UK Meteorological Office explains things to Cabinet Office

June 18, 2008 – Carbon Capture and Storage is going to save Australia. Oh yes.

June 18, 2013 – Feeble ’Wind Fraud’ rally in Canberra

Categories
United States of America

February 28, 1984 – Carbon Dioxide and the Greenhouse Effect hearings

Forty years ago, on this day, February 28th, 1984, Al Gore and other politicians (Republicans too) held hearings, and not the first, about carbon dioxide build-up.

Carbon Dioxide and the Greenhouse Effect, hearings of House Committee on Science and Technology, 98th Congress, Feb 28 1984.

https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=umn.31951d00275567u&view=1up&seq=3 

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 344.8ppm. As of 2024 it is 425ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that people like Gore, were interested in the climate issue and in close contact with Roger Revelle (who had taught Gore at Harvard), James Hansen, etc. There had been hearings in 1982. And in September 1983 the Environmental Protection Agency had put out a report on “Can we delay a greenhouse warming?” (the answer was “almost certainly not”.)

What we learn is that holding hearings is a relatively straightforward way of well, “hearing,” the latest science, showing your voters that you care, disseminating the message; you might even make it newsworthy (as had happened in 1982). So it’s a good tactic. Like any tactic, it can be overused. 

What happened next, Gore and other senators kept plugging away. After the Villach conference in 1985 in October 1985, they had a bit more of a fire in their belly about it. And they managed to get Carl Sagan, who was a rock star, and others. And then they finally broke through in ‘88, with drought, heatwaves and James Hansen…

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

 Feb 28, 2003- Australian business lobby switches from opposition to “no position” on Kyoto ratification #auspol

 February 28, 2010 – Australian Prime Minister says won’t walk away from climate. (Then does, obvs.)

Categories
United Kingdom

June 7, 1984 – UK diplomat pushes for more environmental action

Thirty nine years ago, on this day, June 7, 1984, Crispin Tickell kept plugging away…

In 1984, back at the UK Foreign Office as Deputy Under-Secretary of State for Economic Affairs, he was instrumental in attracting the attention of the UK DoE and developed countries to the subject. He traces official British interest in climate change to the 1984 G7 Summit in London. As British permanent representative to the United Nations, a position he still held when first advising Mrs Thatcher, and as policy adviser to research bodies in the USA, Sir Crispin was able to stress the politics of fear, as well as diplomatic opportunities arising from the climate change issue in many national and international fora.2

Boehmer‐Christiansen (1995; 176-7)

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 347.1ppm. As of 2023 it is 423ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was Tickell had been switched on to the climate problem, in 1975-76. He’d written a book, he’d tried to get it up the g7 agenda in the late 1970s. There had been a push back against this, I think. So in 1980-3, the G7 just didn’t really talk about environment, because there was a new Cold War to worry about etc. But Tickell kept going, as problem brokers are wont to do, and was able to apparently reframe the issue. 

What I think we can learn from this

There are always individuals within the system, working with patience and skill to get leaders on board. It requires a certain kind of person. I am not that kind of person.

What happened next

Four years later, Tickell was finally able to convince Thatcher to take climate change seriously, at least rhetorically. She could have taken the initiative when John Ashworth had advised her in 1979/1980. And here we are

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Categories
Australia

Australian films “The Coal Question” and “What to do about C02” – interview with Russell Porter

The Australian documentary maker Russell Porter kindly agreed to an interview about two of his films for the CSIRO, “the Coal Question” (1982) and “What to do about C02” (1984).

The short version (though you really would benefit from reading the whole thing) is this – we knew. We really did. Skilled communicators got hold of scientists who knew how to communicate.

The Coal Question: (watch here)

Can you remember, did Film Unit ‘pitch’ to energy institute’, or did the energy unit come knocking and say ‘we’d like you to do a film about coal’

1. The film project selection system worked in various ways. In some cases we would identify a subject that looked interesting and then discuss it with the relevant experts, and if it was broadcastable in theme and scope, we would talk perhaps to the ABC Science commissioning editors. In other cases, the Institutes (or Divisions as they became) within CSIRO would express interest in having a film made about their work, and my job would be to liaise with the scientists involved and prepare a script, which was then sent back in a few stages to be revised and refined. I was always keen to avoid them looking too “institutional” and boring. 

In this case I think the energy Institute expressed an interest in publicising their work, I developed the script and, once it was approved, it formed the basic blueprint for making the film. Shooting and post-production on 16 mm was expensive, so we used to aim for a ratio of about ten to one (of material shot to the final edited length), so pre-scripting was essential. (Ratios these days are often 50 or 100 to one – false economy because the saving by shooting on inexpensive digital video are lost in lengthy post-production, and the craft and quality elements that come from careful preparation also suffer.)

Where did your information re: climate come from (did you already know Graeme Pearman from, say, the 1980 climate conference he organised)

2. The film unit was located in the old Information and Media (or some such) Centre in Albert St East Melbourne. which also housed a large library full of journals and editorial departments for specialist publications. It also housed the very experimental computing research division (where they were trying out a kind of prototype internet/electronic data-base sharing system, in collaboration with Harvard and Oxford). I tried to keep on top of interesting-looking developments or program as they came through the internal bulletins and publications like New Scientist (which I still subscribe to). CSIRO was a big and highly respected organisation in those days, with over 7,000 very bright employees engaged in often pure and original science. The climate conference was before my time (I joined in 1982), but the subject was beginning to create some lively debates within the organization. 

 

Was there any attempt to control the script/content before it was released? 

3. I don’t remember there being any attempt to “control” the content,  but as I say they had to approve the final draft of the script. The heads of the Divisions and their scientists were the experts, and I deferred to them. But they were all also pretty smart characters with considerable social awareness and sense of responsibility. I loved the fact that they would not say or allow any opinions that were not based on hard empirical evidence. Proper old-school scientific rigour. With films for a general audience I used to say that if they could make me understand what they were doing, I could interpret that for the public. 

Was there any overt ‘push back’ from anyone (within coal industry, government CSIRO etc) after it was released? If so, from who, what kind of push back?

4. I can’t remember any negative reaction to the coal film – there may have been some, but it would have been at a level that didn’t reach me. The industry lobby groups were also fairly docile in those days, and the politicians were less obsessed  with pleasing their neo-liberal constituencies – that came later I think. I remember feeling that I had to be careful not to be promoting an industry that to me, even back then, I saw as environmentally destructive, so the  “balance” in it, regarding emissions etc, was at my instigation – and they went along with it.

Are there other, earlier films I should be aware of? Or films about renewable energy?

5.  In terms of other CSIRO films, if you go to the website http://www.scienceimage.csiro.au/ you can search by subject,and it will then give you the option of images or videos. “Climate” + “videos” for example yields this: http://www.scienceimage.csiro.au/search/?tags=&newkeyword=climate&keyword=&library=&assettype=video&rgb=&deviation=30&page=1 

I made “Mysteries of the Lleeuwin” which is mainly about oceanography rather than energy / climate issues per se, and “The Heat is On” (2001) was after my time, but seems to be one of the “Sci-Files” shorts, which replaced the old “Researchers” series which were originally screened as fillers on commercial TV. There is another two-minuter in the series called “Oil from Plants”. A search on the site for “solar” yields these:

http://www.scienceimage.csiro.au/search/?tags=&newkeyword=solar+&keyword=&library=&assettype=video&rgb=&deviation=30&page=1 HIAF was the only one I worked on.

Anything else you’d like to say about the Coal Question

6. I think “The Coal Question”  was aired on the ABC Quantum programme, as was my film on Australian trees called “Green Envoys“, shot in Zimbabwe and Southern China in 1986, funded by the Fed government as part of the Australian contribution to the International Year of Peace. (1986)It was originally planned to make it about two CSIRO research projects in Africa, trees in Zimbabwe and dry land soil farming techniques in Kenya. I went over to research it in February, returned with the crew in June, shot the trees project and then discovered that the Kenyans had withdrawn our permission to film at the last minute. It was due to go to air in September so we had to frantically re-schedule and re-write, and decided to make it all about trees. We had to get the then Foreign Affair Minister (Bill Hayden) to fast-track permits and visas etc, and off we flew to remote areas of southern China (Guangxi and Leizhou).  http://www.scienceimage.csiro.au/video/12230/green-envoys/

What to do About CO2? (watch here)

Where did the impetus for “What to do about C02?” come from?

1. “The Greenhouse effect” as it was known then, was certainly an emerging interest of mine, and I think the ABC also wanted to do something on it. Much of the research was coming out of Atmospheric Physics Division in Aspendale so I went there first and met Graeme Pearman and I think Barrie Pittock, They were both keen to spread the word, and very charismatic interview “talent” (unlike many scientists). 

You interviewed Bert Bolin – did he happen to be in Australia at the time?

2.Bert Bolin was in Australia at the time, I´m not sure why, but he was already internationally renowned for his work on climate change, so we took him to a Melbourne beach and interviewed him there. Similarly I heard that botanist and broadcaster David Bellamy was addressing a crowd at the Myer Music Bowl in Melbourne, we ran down there from the Unit´s base and grabbed him after the talk. He was quite a famous figure in those days for his arrest during protests against the damming of the Franklin River in Tasmania. He became an all-purpose environmental issue commentator, so  we got the interview opportunistically. He was discredited  (and banned  by the BBC a least) when he became a denier of anthropogenic climate change, calling it “poppycock”. https://www.azquotes.com/author/30827-David_Bellamy).

Was there any attempt to control script/content?

3 No I don´t think there was any attempt to control the content. CSIRO and its scientists were kind of national sacred cows in those days, a source of national pride. This was before the whittling away and push to commercialize and downsize the organisation. This was also before the age of the internet, so here was much less official manipulation of media and ideas. Fake news, and the rot of anti-science and anti-intellectualism that has since taken over Australia, at least in terms of the people in power, were still decades away.

Can you recall any effort to get a politician (e.g. Barry Jones) to talk in the show about carbon dioxide as a problem?

4. No we didn´t approach the sainted Barry Jones. The Film Unit was intended and I think mandated to be non-partisan politically, and the feeling was that our brief was to stick to scientists, but in retrospect he would have been good value. The choice of Jeff Watson as the presenter was made by the ABC I think. He had a lot of cred as the founder of Beyond 2000, and he was a good choice.

What was the response? Positive? Negative? Any attempt to ‘push back’ from anyone?

5. The response to the film was generally good, it got a few positive reviews in the press and was deemed suitable by the Education department to be distributed to high schools. My own kids saw it at school. The Unit never promoted the films we made much, apart from within CSIRO´s general educational outreach through magazines etc. I don´t recall any pushback, but I can imagine the outcry from the conservative heads-in-the-sand brigade if it was made today with government money. Bob Hawke and Keating were in government for most of the time I was there.

Anything else you’d like to say about the film?

6. Not much more to say about it, other than I have used it quite a bit when teaching documentary in the USA and elsewhere, usually to positive feedback. It is old fashioned didactic filmmaking in a way, which has almost disappeared in the current digital point and squirt observational/reality style filmmaking. I´m currently working at the Uni of Tasmania making a series of films/online courses about identifying, living with and managing dementia (via the Wicking centre). Some of my colleagues there have seen it, and one said it is the best film they have seen on climate change issues, despite being made over three decades ago. 

For more about the CSIRO’s Film Unit, see

Hughes, J. 2018. From cold war to hot planet: Australia’s CSIRO film unit. Studies in Documentary Film., Vol 12, no 1.

Categories
Energy United States of America

January 3, 1984 – US report on energy transition to combat climate released

Thirty-nine years ago, on this day, January 3, 1984, the New York Times science journalist Walter Sullivan had a story that began with words that could have been written yesterday, more or less…

“A GLOBAL strategy to reduce a potentially dangerous increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide has been outlined by engineers and economists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Stanford University.

“In a report to the National Science Foundation, the specialists propose that the use of fossil fuel, largely responsible for the carbon dioxide increase, can be substantially reduced by greater efficiency in energy production.”

Sullivan, W. (1984)  “Report Urges Steps to Slow Down Climate Warming,” The New York Times, January 3.

Sullivan had been writing about carbon dioxide build-up in the atmosphere for the NYT since the early 1960s (having become aware of the issue during his coverage of the 1957-8 International Geophysical Year).

The report’s lead author, David Rose had been quoted in an August 1980 Wall Street Journal article (which we will come to later) as saying that if the CO2 theory were right “that means big trouble.”

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 344ppm. As of January 2023 it is 417. .

The context was that by the mid-late 1970s, US scientists were able to get funding for decent studies of carbon dioxide build-up, and were even getting some sympathetic hearings from the Jimmy Carter White House. That all ended when Reagan and his goons turned up… In October 1983 two “conflicting” reports about CO build-up had been released. (something AOY will cover later this year).

What I think we can learn from this

We knew. As I have argued here, and elsewhere, ad infitum  and nauseam, there is not an information deficit,,but there is a sustained radical social movements deficit.

What happened next

The issue finally was forced onto the agenda in 1988.  Reports like the MIT/Stanford one have been written pretty much every year since then.  Human emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gses have climbed almost every year. Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide have gone up and up and up.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong?  Do comment on this post.

References

Rose, David J.; Miller, Marvin M.; Agnew and  Carson E. (1983) “Global energy futures and CO\2082-induced climate change: report prepared for Division of Policy Research and Analysis, National Science Foundation https://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/60493

Sullivan, W. (1984)  “Report Urges Steps to Slow Down Climate Warming,” The New York Times, January 3. https://www.nytimes.com/1984/01/03/science/report-urges-steps-to-slow-down-climate-warming.html

Categories
United States of America

December 13, 1984 – Christian Science Monitor monitors the #climate science – ooops.

On this day,  December 13th in 1984 for the Christian Science Monitor ran an article which covered some recent research into carbon dioxide build-up.

Its conclusion? Its conclusion has not aged well.

“the alarms often raised about melting the polar icecaps and flooding coastal cities are largely speculation. And the calls that have been made to ”do something now” to begin to restrict the burning of fossil fuels are rather premature.”

Cowen, Robert C. (1984). “New CO[2] data undercuts dire prediction icecaps would melt. Chillier winters, hungrier bugs ahead?”. Christian Science Monitor, 13 December.

Oops.

On this day the PPM was 345ppm Now it is 419ish- but see here for the latest.

Why this matters. 

Find mid 1980s the question of future climate change caused by buildup of atmospheric carbon dioxide from man’s burning of oil, coal and gas was an infrequent but no longer unusual topic of conversation in the mass media on television and print media.

What happened next?

It would be another 4 years until the question of climate change burst onto the scene and became a regular feature of newspaper and print media and the denial campaigns started

properly.