Tag: IIASA

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Austria Economics of mitigation Energy Science

October 13, 1993 – IIASA and the IAMs – Gaia help us all

Thirty one years ago, on this day, October 13th, 1993,

Nebojša Nakićenović, William Nordhaus, Richard Richels and Ferenc Toth, Integrative Assessment of Mitigation, Impacts, and Adaptation to Climate Change, Proceedings of a Workshop Held on 13–15 Oct. 1993 (Laxenburg: IIASA, 1993)

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 357ppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was tha the cold war -scientist shall talk unto scientist’ outfit the International Institute for Advanced Science Analysis (IIASA) was about 20 years old. It had a surprisingly long history of banging on about climate change and energy, back to 1975, with William Nordhaus and then Hafele’s energy studies. And they put together some workshops. And they were big fans of all their fancy computer models: really in love with them. 

What we learn.  And here we are 30 years later. And they just keep redrawing lines and magic shit into existence. Making heroic assumptions about the speed of development and deployment of offshore wind and hydrogen and so forth, bearing no resemblance to the real world. But how are you gonna make the numbers add up? 

So we’re trapped in these ridiculous mental models and computer models, because we don’t tell the truth to ourselves about ourselves. That we screwed the pooch and is it no one’s short-term career interest to be the one who says “hey guys, I think we screwed the pooch.” You are not going to get promoted – in fact, you’re not going to keep your bloody job full stop if you do that…

What happened next so I’m sure that in 1993 there were people with misgivings. They didn’t speak up. I’m sure that there were other people who had misgivings in 2003, didn’t speak up. 2013 didn’t speak up. 2023 didn’t speak up. Why would you? 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

October 13, 1990/97 – Ros Kelly defends the Interim Planning Target vs Australia does nothing

October 13, 2005 – “Climate Change: Turning up the Heat” published

Categories
Austria Carbon Capture and Storage

June 20, 2002 – BECCS is billed as a “real option” by IIASA

Twenty-two years ago, on this day, June 20th, 2002, the fantasies of BECCS beckon…,

20 June 2002 – IIASA report – Biomass Energy, Carbon Removal and Permanent Sequestration ― A ‘Real Option’ for Managing Climate Risk https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/6743/1/IR-02-042.pdf

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 373.5ppm. As of 2024 it is 426ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that everyone was talking about carbon capture and storage. And its cousins. Direct Air Capture and BioEnergy Carbon Capture and Storage found their start this early date, at least conceptually. And, of course, it was our old friends at IIASA who posted this. They never met a geoengineering technological fix that they didn’t approve of. That’s who these people are, for better or for worse. Can’t blame them for being what they are. 

What we learn is that technocrats gonna technocrat, to channel Ms Swift.

What happened next? There’ll be another almost 15 years before BECCS started being taken really seriously. And that was in the aftermath of the Paris Agreement where the warning bell was ringing ever louder. And rather than reach for fundamental social transformation, which they don’t know how to do, and would force them to admit that the last 35 years had been worse than useless and wasted, they double down on the techno, because they can do no other. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

June 20, 1977- “Alternative Three” – An early Climate Hoax 

June 20, 1979 – Jimmy Carter installed solar panels on the White House

June 20, 2000 – Australian business writes the rules.

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Austria

February 4, 1980 – IIASA taskforce on Climate and Society

Forty four years ago, on this day, February 4th, 1980, smart people in the orbit of the International Institute for Advanced Systems Analysis began another of their meetings.

The Task Force meeting on the Nature of Climate and Society Research, 4-6 February 1980, was the third major event in climate  studies at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 339ppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that IASSA had been scratching its head about climate for a few years now. In 1975 it had hosted Nordhaus and others on the economics of mitigation. It had famously also supported the work of Cesare Marchetti on carbon capture and storage. It had held a workshop in 78 and it was doing energy studies stuff. So what we see here is not an early “outlier” but a continuation of an existing process with Americans and Europeans working cheek by jowl. And don’t forget, the First World Climate Conference had taken place in February of the previous year… 

What we learn is that from the early mid 70s onwards, intelligent and/or high status, well-connected people in the scientific advice giving game were alive to the issues.

What happened next? Kellogg wrote a book that was published on the first of January 1981. Other people were beavering away on the same issues including Schneider. There’s also the Great Adaptation and so forth.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

References

Ausubel, J.H. & Biswas, A.K. (1980). Climatic Constraints and Human Activities; Proceedings of a Task Force on the Nature of Climate and Society Research, February 4-6, 1980. Oxford: Pergamon Press. ISBN 978-0-08-026721-0

https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/1222/

Also on this day: 

February 4, 1963 – A UN conference on technology for “less developed areas” starts

February 4, 1993 – Australian business versus the future (spoiler: business wins)

Feb 4, 2002- Global Climate Coalition calls it a day (“Mission accomplished”)

Categories
Austria

 Feb 21, 1978 – “Carbon dioxide, climate and society” workshop

Forty five years ago, on this day, February 21 1978, a workshop took place at the Cold War lek known as IIASA, in Austria.

Carbon dioxide, climate and society – Proceedings of a IIASA workshop co-sponsored by WMO, UNEP and SCOPE, (Laxenburg, Austria) 21-24 Feb 1978.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 335.2ppm. As of 2023 it is 419ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was

In the US the 1977 NAS report had come out.  UNEP were hosting meetings with the WMO Preparations were underway for the First World Climate Conference, to be held in February 1979.  IIASA had been looking at Energy and Climate for a while, including with previous workshops in 1975 and this one in 1976 about Climate and Solar Energy.  Some of the big names – Flohn, Nordhaus etc, were around.

What I think we can learn from this

Smart people were “on it” quite early (i.e. 20 years after Plass, Revelle, Bolin, Keeling et al had seen what the problem was).  They scratched their heads and couldn’t see easy ways forward Because there weren’t any. There certainly aren’t any now. 

What happened next

This meeting and others fed into the late 1970s awareness of the problem (among a tiny number of people!)

IIASA kept having consequential meetings on climate (see their stuff on CCS in the early 2000s)

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong?  Do comment on this post.

References

Schrickel, I. (2017)  Control versus complexity: approaches to the carbon dioxide problem at IIASAWynne, B. (1984) The Institutional Context of Science, Models, and Policy: The IIASA Energy Study. Policy Sciences

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United Kingdom

October 10, 1977 – famous scientist Solly Zuckerman writes to top UK Civil Servant, warning about climate change

On this day, October 10 in 1977, the former Chief Scientific Adviser for the United Kingdom, Solly Zuckerman wrote to the Cabinet Secretary (Sir John Hunt) about global warming, having been sensitised to the issue by an IIASA presentation.

Zuckerman  ‘This was the first time that I had heard anyone take so serious a view of this particular issue’. TNA CAB 184/567. Zuckerman to Hunt, 10 October 1977.

Solly Zuckerman

Source – Jon Agar’s 2015 article. “Future forecast – changeable and probably getting worse”: the UK Government’s Early Response to Anthropogenic Climate Change

[The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 331.28ppm. At time of writing it was 421ishppm- but for what it is now,well, see here for the latest.]

The context was this – 

By the mid-late 1970s, the carbon dioxide issue was becoming more prominent. Organisations like IIASA were holding workshops, publishing articles. On IIASA, check out “Scientific Cooperation as a Bridge Across the Cold War Divide The Case of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis” by ALAN McDONALD

Why this matters. 

“We” “knew”

What happened next?

They tried to warn the new Prime Minister, one Margaret Thatcher. She dismissed them with “you want me to worry about the weather.”

Categories
Ignored Warnings Ireland Science Scientists

October 9, 1979 – Hermann Flohn warns Irish of “possible consequences of a man-made warming”

On this day, October 9 in 1979, Hermann Flohn (major German scientist) gave a talk about “possible climatic consequences of a man-made global warming” at a conference in Dublin, Ireland.

Flohn H. 1980: Possible climatic consequences of a man-made global warming. In: R. Kavanagh (Ed.): Energy System Analysis. Proc. Intern. Conf. Dublin, 9-11 Oct. 1979, D. Reidel Publ. Comp., Dordrecht, 558-568. (1981: Life on a warmer Earth, Possible climatic consequences of man-made global warming. Executive Report 3, based on research by H. Flohn, Intern. Inst. for Applied System Analysis IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, pp. 59.)

https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/1097/1/WP-79-086.pdf

[The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 334.24ppm. At time of writing it was 421ishppm- but for what it is now,well, see here for the latest.]

The context was this – by the late 1970s, scientists who studied climate, energy systems etc had come to some conclusions

  1. Carbon dioxide really was building up in the atmosphere
  2. This would have real consequences 

They tried to get politicians to pay attention.  Oops

Why this matters. 

By the late 1970s we knew enough (earlier than that, I think there was room for doubt)

What happened next?

Flohn kept trying. Others kept trying. Eventually, in 1988, the issue “broke through”.