Thirty four years ago, on this day, June 14th, 1992,
Rio Earth Summit finishes 3 to 14th June. Everyone signs the UNFCCC… (except Saudi and a couple of others, who waited until it was inevitable and they’d be left out in the cold if they didn’t).
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 356ppm. As of 2026, when this post was published, it is 432ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.
The broader context for this was that in 1968 the United Nations had agreed to a Swedish proposal to host a conference on the human environment. This had happened in 1972 in Stockholm, and one of the few things to come out of it was the United Nations Environment Programme, UNEP. UNEP, the World Meteorological Organisation, and the ICSU, had sponsored various scientific gatherings through the 70s and 80s about climate, and especially carbon dioxide build up, leading to the Villach conference in 1985.
And after Villach in several nations, not so much the United Kingdom, but certainly, for example, Australia and the United States, there had been a concerted push to get politicians aware of/concerned about climate change from CO2 build up.
The specific context was in 1988 the problem had become an issue, and the public were concerned. And perhaps the most important sign of this was Thatcher’s speech at the Royal Society in September of ‘88. Then, despite the efforts of the United States to slow things down, or even stop them, there was irresistible pressure for an international climate treaty to be signed at the Rio Earth Summit (kind of a 20 year follow on to the Stockholm conference, but this time, held in the developing world, or third world, or whatever the politically correct term happens to be).
And there were many books written about the conference, much ink spilled, many protests as there had been at Stockholm. Because guess what? World leaders in limousines with vacuous speeches are not particularly trusted by the rabble because the rabble have been paying attention.
Anyway the crucial insight is that George H W Bush, President of the United States had publicly and presumably privately, vehemently, said that if there were targets and timetables for emissions reductions by rich countries in the text of the climate treaty, he would not sign it. And what’s more, he would not come to the Earth Summit at all
And the proponents of the targets and timetables decided it was better to have Bush at the table than not at all. And there’s an understandable logic to that decision, but what it’s meant is that we’ve spent the next 30 years trying to get targets and timetables for emissions reductions bedded in, and it hasn’t worked, and we’re doomed.
What I think we can learn is this: That’s all you need to know, is that, thanks to a bunch of stupid white men with ideas above their intellect, we’re doomed. I mean, it’s broader than that, even if we’d taken better decisions in ‘88 to ‘92 the challenges we faced would still have overwhelmed us. I think we’ll never know.
What happened next: See above. The emissions kept climbing and climbing
On this topic, you might like these other posts on All Our Yesterdays
May 25, 1992 Keating Cabinet discusses Rio
You can see the chronological list of All Our Yesterdays “on this day” posts here.
What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.
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If you want to invite me on your podcast, that would boost my ego and probably improve the currently pitiful hit-rate on this site (the two are not-unrelated).
Also on this day:
June 14, 1979 – the messy inclusion of climate change in energy politics – All Our Yesterdays
June 14, 1993 – International Conference on the Economics of Climate Change – All Our Yesterdays
June 14, 2011 – climate change threat to Australia’s top wines – All Our Yesterdays