Forty seven years ago, on this day, October 26th, 1979,
“Fate of Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide and the Global Carbon Budget” W. S. Broecker, T. Takahashi, H. J. Simpson, and T. -H. Peng
Science 26 Oct 1979 Vol 206, Issue 4417 pp. 409-418
DOI: 10.1126/science.206.4417.40
The fate of fossil fuel carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere depends on the exchange rates of carbon between the atmosphere and three major carbon reservoirs, namely, the oceans, shallow-water sediments, and the terrestrial biosphere. Various assumptions and models used to estimate the global carbon budget for the last 20 years are reviewed and evaluated. Several versions of recent atmosphere-ocean models appear to give reliable and mutually consistent estimates for carbon dioxide uptake by the oceans. On the other hand, there is no compelling evidence which establishes that the terrestrial biomass has decreased at a rate comparable to that of fossil fuel combustion over the last two decades, as has been recently claimed.
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 337ppm. As of 2026, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.
The broader context was that from the middle of the 1970s the evidence had begun to firm up the scientific consensus and opinion that carbon dioxide was building up very quickly, and that this would have really significant social, economic, political, military consequences, while there were debates about where some of these carbon dioxide molecules were actually ending up.
What I think we can learn from this – by the late 1970s, if you had time/access to scientific work, you could see trouble ahead.
What happened next is that the debates about the science were ongoing, but within the general understanding that carbon dioxide was building up, and this would cause mayhem. This paper was relatively influential in the circles in which people moved, and it was excerpted in William Barbat’s CO2 Newsletter.
On this topic, you might like these other posts on All Our Yesterdays
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You can see the chronological list of All Our Yesterdays “on this day” posts here.
What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.
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Also on this day:
October 26, 1975 – “The Endangered Atmosphere” conference begins…
October 26, 1994 – “Global warming is a global warning”
October 26, 2001 – BioEnergy Carbon Capture and Storage mooted