What is this “El Nino” that all you hysterical greenies are banging on about?
“The El Niño Southern Oscillation, often abbreviated to ENSO, is an ocean-climate cycle that naturally occurs across the Pacific Ocean. Oceanographic conditions are closely connected to the trade winds that sailors have relied on for thousands of years. El Niño events, the “warm” part of the ENSO cycle, start when Pacific trade winds, which “push” surface waters westward until they build up near Indonesia, weaken, allowing a pool of tropical, warm water to move towards the Central Pacific. The warm pool suppresses upwelling of cold, deep, nutrient-rich waters along the coast of South America. This change in Pacific waters reverberates through the global ocean-atmosphere system, resulting in changes to weather around the world.”
There’s just one kind, right?
Nope, there’s several ways to cut the cake
Where it starts
Central Pacific or Eastern Pacific
(Science-y article on what this means for vegetation in the Western Pacific here).
How big it is
“Normal” or “Super” (aka “Godzilla”)
The one we’re at the beginning of (writing Sept 19, 2026) is a “Super” – that’s based on how high the sea temperature is. After this year, who knows, we may need a third category – “ultra” or “civilisation killer”.
When will it all end?
Welcome to the rest of your life, sunshine. “This year’s El Nino began developing in June 2026 and is expected to peak by early 2027, with forecasters warning it could be one of the strongest ever recorded. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expects it to persist through March-May 2027.” (Ali and Haddad, 2026).
That’s all in far away countries of which I know little – why should I care?
“The link is weaker in Europe. The United Kingdom’s Met Office expects a higher chance of wetter, stormier conditions in Northwest Europe this autumn and early winter, while the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has linked El Nino to colder late winters in Northern Europe.” (Ali and Haddad, 2026).
Why should I trust you?
Good question. You shouldn’t trust anyone. “You’re all individuals…”
More seriously, I ain’t selling you anything. I am trying to gather and disseminate information which I think has both credibility (though sometimes ‘randos’ are righter than the respectables) and “utility” (but also, we’re so screwed).
What should I do?
FIIK-
- Stockpile food?
- Water is somewhat harder to stockpile, obvs.
- Get to know your neighbours?
- Target practice?
What is the point of this digest?
Well, it will probably change over time (as El Nino hits us and we see what predictions were valid, as I get bored, etc etc), but right now it’s
PERSONAL
- Create/maintain an entirely spurious sense of control through ‘fore’knowledge
- Stay abreast of predictions and actual impacts of the El Nino
- Learn new data scraping/storage techniques
- Learn new digest formats
- Build credibility/networks for All Our Yesterdays but especially “NED”
- Make a fortune from this and retire, lighting cigars with 100 Euro notes.
OTHER PPL
- Communicate these in digestible format (weekly digest) (pithy, but referenced) so that people can “sip from the fire hose”